Strength of Schedule after Week 14

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by Sarg01, Dec 11, 2005.

  1. Sarg01

    Sarg01 Hall of Fame

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    Here's the current SOS numbers, the Saints/Falcons Monday night game only affects New Orleans of the 4-wins-or-less-crowd. Draft positioning is Super Bowl as 32 and 31, then lowest win-loss record, then lowest strength of schedule, then divisional tiebreaks (where applicable) and conference tiebreaks (where applicable) and finally by coin flip.

    1 win teams:

    Houston, 112 opponent victories

    2 win teams:

    San Fran, 114

    3 win teams:

    New York Jets, 107
    New Orleans, 111 (assuming Monday night loss)
    Green Bay, 112

    4 win teams:

    Tennessee, 104
    Buffalo, 104 (under Tennessee via Conference record)
    Arizona, 105 (coin flip)
    Cleveland, 105 (coin flip)
    Detroit, 107
    Baltimore, 108
    New Orleans, 109 (assuming Monday night win)
    Oakland, 110

    All else being equal (highly unlikely) the Texans would have pick #12 if they won out, #4 with 2 victories, #1 with 1 victory and #1 with no victories.
     
  2. Big B Texan Fan

    Big B Texan Fan Hall of Fame

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  3. Coach C.

    Coach C. Hall of Fame

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    If we win then the likely hood is SF gets the number 1 due to strength of schedule. They have played an easier schedule and would have the same record if I am not mistaken. We would have the number 2 and I would be estatic because we get to trade down and everyone can shut the hell up about Reggie Bush.
     
  4. Sarg01

    Sarg01 Hall of Fame

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    No, as noted in my post, they have played a harder schedule. Their opponents have won 114 games whereas ours have won 112 games. While 3 games is not something that couldn't be overcome in the final weeks, up through Week 14, the Texans strength-of-schedule is easier than the 49ers.
     
  5. bpergrem3

    bpergrem3 Rookie

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    Houston - 111
    GB - 113
    SF - 113
    Jets - 120

    I gave both GB and the Jets a win since they have both Atlanta and New Orleans on their schedule.
     
  6. infantrycak

    infantrycak Mod. Staff Member

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    John McClain just said in a two team tie, the 1st tie breaker is head up results and strength of schedule starts with 3 or more tied teams. That wasn't what I understood at all, but FWIW.
     
  7. tulexan

    tulexan Hall of Fame

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    That is wrong. The first tie-breaker is strength of schedule. Head to head is used for playoff seeds.
     
  8. nunusguy

    nunusguy Hall of Fame

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    Its SOS first: the weaker the W-L % of your opponents aggregate records, the higher you pick. If multiple teams have identical SOS, its a coin flip. Those are the rules for Draft order.
     


  9. GanadoUHCoog

    GanadoUHCoog Rookie

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    thanks Jets and Packers.

    Although I don't think we need Bush, but we can parlee that #1 into a really good package deal from somebody..
     
  10. NinerPheen

    NinerPheen Rookie

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    Niners are gonna take it dude. Houston vs San Francisco, Reggie Bowl, loser wins.
     
  11. tulexan

    tulexan Hall of Fame

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    No the Texans will get it regardless of the outcome most likely. Our strength of schedule is weaker than the Niners.
     
  12. NinerPheen

    NinerPheen Rookie

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    I know its weaker, as of right now its 2 games weaker. That can change a lot in the next 3 weeks and you cant count you guys out of the Arizona game. GO TEXANS!!!!
     
  13. nunusguy

    nunusguy Hall of Fame

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    Leading like in we have a weaker SOS vs. the 49ers, which would be the
    tie-breaker for Draft purposes. The change came after we played the 4
    win Titans and SF played the 11 win Seahawks over the weekend. This
    is a dynamic parameter which changes after each weeks games.
    If we win no more than 1 game, we're guaranteed of top 2, but if we
    win out (which I think is entirely possible), we have no assurances of drafting
    even in top 10.
    http://www.ourlads.com/DraftSequence.html
     
  14. David's Busted Carr

    David's Busted Carr Veteran

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    I heard that week 17 vs. SF might be a completely meaningless game. If the Texans lose this week to Arizona and next week to Jacksonville they will already have the #1 pick locked up even if they beat SF in week 17. The tiebreaker is not head to head, but based on opponents W-L or something like that (similar to the way they do the BCS in college). And apparently the Texans have the advantage in that. So even if we beat SF and both finish 2-14 we'll still get the #1 pick.

    Is this accurate? Does anyone know for sure?
     
  15. Blake

    Blake MMQB

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    .... if both teams lose until they play eachother, then depending on the strength of schedule, it COULD be a meaningless game.

    You have to wait until the last week, to find out the real strength of schedule.
     
  16. TigerBait

    TigerBait Veteran

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    It soley depends on Arizona and St. Louis, considering they are the only teams on the two schedules that are not in common; assuming that we lose to the Cardinals and the 49ers lose to the Rams.

    Arizona plays the Eagles and Colts after us. Philly is a dangerous game because Arizona might be able to get a win.

    St. Louis plays the Eagles next week, and then the Cowboys after the 49ers. I don't see them winning either of those.

    As of right now the Texans would win the tie breaker, they have the easier schedule at a combined 97-72 vs. 99-70 for the 49ers

    Right now the remaining opponents record for both teams is 15-24, so as long as Arizona does not win both of its last games, considering we have a easier schedule by two games, then we should undoubtedly have the #1 pick.
     
  17. Sarg01

    Sarg01 Hall of Fame

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    Here's who to root for Week 15! Selections are based on improving the strength of schedule for the 2-11 and 3-10 teams, thus improving the Texans potential draft standing against them while still allowing us to put some wins on the table.

    Bucs over Pats - gain one on everyone except the Saints. Gain 2 on them :)
    Giants over Chiefs - gain one on Niners, Saints
    Broncos over Bills - gain one on Jets
    Texans over Cardinals - Because! Also, gain one on Niners
    Seahawks over Titans - gain one on Niners, hold even with Pack, lose one on others (if Titans win, we lose TWO on everyone except Niners where we lose one) :(
    Chargers over Colts - gain one on Jets
    Saints over Panthers - improve Saints record, gain one on Jets/Pack
    Vikings over Steelers - gain one on Saints, gain two on Pack
    Eagles over Rams - gain one on Niners, Pack
    Niners over Jaguars - improve Niners record, but lose one on everybody
    Raiders over Browns - gain one on Jets
    Lions over Bengals - gain one on Saints, two on Pack
    Cowboys over Redskins - gain one on Niners any way you slice it, but this is thanks for Dallas beating the Chiefs last week and giving us the SOS lead on SF :)
    Bears over Falcons - gain one on Niners, Saints, two on Pack
    Packers over Ravens - improve Pack record, gain one on Saints

    We really take a bath when the AFC South teams win. Maybe Indy will let up against the Bolts now that they've got homefield.
     
  18. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    I'm under the impression that if you have only two teams left with the worse records that season in the NFL & if they meet head to head the winner of that game trumps the winning SOS % of either team. this applys only to the worst two teams, if three or more teams are involved then it reverts back to SOS %. all picks after the top two are decided by SOS %.:twocents:

    should also add this does not apply to the winner of the Superbowl as they always have the last pick!
     
  19. Johnny Utah

    Johnny Utah All Pro

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    This would officially be the worst feeling season of all time to go through all this and end up with a pick out of the top 10.
     
  20. Kaiser Toro

    Kaiser Toro Native Mod

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    TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
    If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:

    1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.
    2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.

    If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.

    http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers
     

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