Solomon: The Texans Would Like to Sign Brown, Barwin, Schaub Before the Season

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Brisco_County, Jun 18, 2012.

  1. Brisco_County

    Brisco_County Texans worthy

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,617
    Likes Received:
    337
    Location:
    Austin
    Link.

    It's best for both sides to get Brown and Barwin signed right now, with most of the money loaded into next year.

    Schaub's contract is tricky. One of the cases I made in the 20/70/10 thread was that Schaub was at risk of sliding into group B, and if that happens, it would require a contract renegotiation. Smith wants to see a year of durability before risking that scenario. I don't think Schaub will get a deal done before the season, but I think Brown and Barwin are locks.
     
  2. Marcus

    Marcus Ruthless pragmatist

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2004
    Messages:
    8,216
    Likes Received:
    632
    Location:
    Stafford, Texas
    Jeez Solomon, why don't we find out if the dude can walk without a limp first before trying to "lock him up".
     
  3. GP

    GP Go Texans!

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2005
    Messages:
    17,747
    Likes Received:
    1,573
    Location:
    TEXAS!
    Last night, I was thinking this:

    "WHAT IF the Texans use the tag on Schaub, to get one more year out of him in 2013 to see if he's back or not?"

    Nobody has talked much, or any at all, about using the tag on Schaub.

    It seems it would be rather expensive for the Texans to do so, though. But does it fit the sometimes "coddling" aspect of Bob McNair's love affair with certain "faces of the franchise?" He's had one QB he hung onto for an extra season...would he do the same for Schaub, considering that Schaub more or less has earned that one season of extra time with us???
     
  4. GP

    GP Go Texans!

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2005
    Messages:
    17,747
    Likes Received:
    1,573
    Location:
    TEXAS!
    I'll go ahead and say that I'm in favor of letting the market settle itself on Schaub in early 2013...let's see what the market holds for him.

    He'll be a free agent, so let's not bid against ourselves here. OK, so maybe a team who is desperate will gamble on paying Schaub a really nice salary in 2013. My reaction is that they're also getting a guy who isn't Top 3 in the league, who has missed a lot of time (sometimes long stretches of time) and has major mobility problems from this point forward.

    My decision would be to let him test the market, save the tag for other guys, and use TJ Yates and Case Keenum as heir apparent for the next 3 years here if we can't retain him at a team-friendly price. Go with youth, in other words. I wouldn't expect Schaub to accept that, but I would gamble anyways.
     
  5. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2007
    Messages:
    25,311
    Likes Received:
    961
    Location:
    Clear Lake
    I'd tried to post this article yesterday for an hour and could not find link on chron.com. ARggh!
     
  6. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder COOL BEANS!

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2010
    Messages:
    15,064
    Likes Received:
    1,332
    Location:
    Houston
    Well, if we have 24 million to play with next offseason, spending 16 on tagging Schaub does not sound like a good idea to me.

    Brown is probably going to cost $10 million a year, so either Barwin or Schaub can eat up the majority of that $14 million remaining, and I think it will be Schaub at about 11-12 mill a year. If Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco are making 11 million-ish this year, Matt's worth about that much, and I think his agent will get him that money.

    Barwin seems like the oddman out, unless we trim a lot of fat by cutting Wade Smith, Antonio Smith, OD and/or Kevin Walter. If Barwin has 10+ sacks again next season, I think we'll see the team cut Antonio to save money to keep Barwin. We may have to draft another 3-4 DE and move Crick up to RDE. There is gonna be some movement if they don't get those guys signed.
     
  7. infantrycak

    infantrycak Semi-grand Poobah Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2004
    Messages:
    53,986
    Likes Received:
    2,458
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    I think that is a reasonable target area.

    Got to remember these contracts typically escalate for example the first year total cap hit for Sanchez is $5.25 mil.
     
  8. ckhouston

    ckhouston Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2011
    Messages:
    1,544
    Likes Received:
    68
    Location:
    Lost in Azeroth
    Brown is top priority with Barwin being second.

    Signing Schaub before we have a full season with him back on the field, or at least the majority of the season would be foolish. We still do not know for sure that the injury wont have long term effects, and the one sure things he has shown in his career, is that he stays injured.

    Really I do want to see him do well this season and lead us to the SB, but would I give him a long term extension averaging 11-12M a year? No way. Not even if he wins it all.

    If he does well I give him a couple more years at a decent rate (maybe 7-8M) and see how healthy he is in two years. If Smith locks him up, he could be committing career suicide.
     
  9. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2005
    Messages:
    38,528
    Likes Received:
    1,672
    Location:
    Texas
    First, trying to sign Brown, Barwin, & Schaub this season explains why we "don't" have money for Mario. The cap numbers we were looking at before FA just didn't make sense, without this caveat.

    I think it's the right move..... especially if Mario was unwilling to restructure that big $16M payday last offseason.


    & then we've got to consider reality. He's in the last year of his contract, he could do like Dunta & "take it easy" so as not to re-injure himself, resting on his body of work, which should still get him a pay-raise, where another injury would pretty much make him a back-up for two or three years.

    The key, is the structure. There should be enough Mario money laying around to get Schaub a decent payday for the 2012 season, then structure a deal that will pay him really well from 2013 on.... guaranteed if he's on the roster at whatever day they want next season... he won't be on the team if there is some other "freak" injury that keeps him from playing a predetermined # of games.

    Heck, they could guarantee his contract if he starts X number of games in 2012.

    I don't think the man is accident prone, personally, I wouldn't be overly concerned about injuries, just throwing that out there, if you are. I think he's good for our club, & I'm anxious to see how good he can be with a better WR corps..... AJ is the shiznitz.... but we need other options who can consistently get open without all the sheninigans.
     
  10. TEXANRED

    TEXANRED Texan-American

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2005
    Messages:
    7,918
    Likes Received:
    694
    I wouldn't extend Schaub until after this season. Out of 5 seasons only 2 has he not been injured.

    Manning gets cut after missing one season in 15 years.
     
  11. powda

    powda Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2004
    Messages:
    3,547
    Likes Received:
    284
    Few possible problems with that assessment though I think its mostly a fair ball park.

    1. Schaub is better.
    2. Those contracts are 1-2 years old...it will cost more now then at the time those contracts were signed.
    3. Did either of those players test the open market?

    Teams will pay ridiculous money for solid quarterback play (look 2 the draft for resources teams routinely pay for the hope of a decent qb). The last thing I want 2 do is get in a bidding war with 10 teams that have more money to spend.
     
  12. ATRAIN

    ATRAIN ATX TEXANS FAN

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2007
    Messages:
    412
    Likes Received:
    26
    Location:
    Austin, Tx
    I agree with you here. Brown and Barwin I would love to see asap.


    Matt is good but he isnt THAT good. NO way he should get a big contract before he can prove what he can do this year. I dont know how much a tag on him would be if he does good. I think the tag on QB's is a pretty big hit right? All in all though I hate that we are already talking about the cap for next year when this season hasnt even started. This off season was one of the most stressfull as a Texans fan. I just cant wait for this season to kick off. At the very least cant wait for pre-season.
     
  13. buddyboy

    buddyboy All Pro

    Joined:
    May 17, 2006
    Messages:
    835
    Likes Received:
    89
    Foot injury vs. neck injury. The comparison is silly to say the least.
     
  14. GP

    GP Go Texans!

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2005
    Messages:
    17,747
    Likes Received:
    1,573
    Location:
    TEXAS!
    Three problems, IMO, with your use of Sanchez and Flacco:

    (1) The two QBs you listed are younger, (2) not nearly as hampered by the same degree of injuries Schaub has accrued, and (3) there's no guarantee that Sanchez will be "earning" that big paycheck he was given (let's remember that the Jets foolishly re-up'd Sanchez when Sanchez still had at least 2 years left on his initial contract).

    Not exactly a good argument to use those two QBs to try and rationalize why Schaub could earn that same level of pay. Will Schaub's agent demand what they think is fair pay for Schaub? Yes. Will their expectations be rooted in solid reality? Maybe, but that's for the Texans and other suitors to determine. I personally don't think he's a $10+ starting QB for the Texans.

    At least the Redskins are not going to go after him in fee agency...that's one team who would definitely over-pay/out-bid for Schaub in 2013 had they not drafted RGIII.

    If Matt Schaub starts Game 1 and has a solid season, Matt Schaub will deservedly be back in 2013. There's several other scenarios, however, where I would hope the Texans front office evaluates Schaub's long-term prospects here in what might be perceived to be a fairly cold-blooded manner.
     
  15. GP

    GP Go Texans!

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2005
    Messages:
    17,747
    Likes Received:
    1,573
    Location:
    TEXAS!
    I think 2 yrs at $8 million-per-season is good, at least for what I think of his situation here and how it affects the other contracts we need to get done in the next two years.

    Some team out there is going to offer more, though. Some teams have a really bad situation at QB and they will think that guy who slung the ball in Houston will make them instantly better...which he might, but that's all relative in the grand scheme of things.

    QB is the nail-biter situation for this team right now. Whether it's a healthy Schaub, a semi-healthy Schaub, an older TJ Yates, or a still-a-bit-shaky TJ Yates, etc.....whatever happens at QB in the first four games of this season is going to determine a lot of things IN season and OUT of season for us.
     
  16. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder COOL BEANS!

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2010
    Messages:
    15,064
    Likes Received:
    1,332
    Location:
    Houston
    You and Powda make opposing arguments regarding of Schaub's value, and I think they are all credible points. Simply put, I think age, injury history, and lack of possible destinations will average out and limit Schaub's price to the same range as Flacco and Sanchez. I think Schaub is more capable than both of those guys when healthy, but the uncertainty around him brings his price down to their level.
     
  17. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder COOL BEANS!

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2010
    Messages:
    15,064
    Likes Received:
    1,332
    Location:
    Houston
    That's Matt Hasslebeck money. He's at least one tier above him. I really think that he's in the Flacco, Romo, Rivers, Ryan, Cutler range of salary.
     
  18. infantrycak

    infantrycak Semi-grand Poobah Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2004
    Messages:
    53,986
    Likes Received:
    2,458
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    Agreed. Schaub is a tier above in performance, Hasselbeck has been injured just as much and he is six years older. He is a player at the end of Schaub's next contract.
     
  19. powda

    powda Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2004
    Messages:
    3,547
    Likes Received:
    284
    I dont think schaub will be resigned previous to the season and IF he's healthy and IF he has a normal season (for him), I think he'll command a big contract. Flaco and Sanchez 11 million type contracts are probably the floor of what we can expect. I'd guess 11 to 14 ish. I'm also assuming he will lead this team to the playoffs and that will only enhance his value. We're only 1 year removed from 2 consecutive 4500 yard seasons. If he tests the open market his contract will go north of 14 million. Do I think hes worth that? Hell no. But someone WILL pay him.
     
  20. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2005
    Messages:
    38,528
    Likes Received:
    1,672
    Location:
    Texas
    He's got to win with this team. He's got to get to the play-offs, & win for him to be worth anything in FA.

    Otherwise, think Jon Kitna. He'll be signed by someone to start, on the cheap.
     

Share This Page