Silva: tracking pre-draft visits and workouts tendencies

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Playoffs, Mar 29, 2012.

  1. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    Our discoveries, after tracking pre-draft visits and workouts
    Posted by Evan Silva on May 5, 2011

    For the last two offseasons, PFT has used the media and our own resources to track pre-draft visits and workouts. We’ve hoped to find a connection between those meetings and what happens on draft day.

    Visits and workouts are often written off as smokescreens, routine due diligence, or mere medical checks by observers unwilling to put in the time necessary to track them.

    But we are willing.

    And here are our findings:

    1. In 2011, twelve of the top-14 picks either worked out for or visited their team before the draft. The only players who did not work out for or visit the team they were picked by were Texans defensive end J.J. Watt and Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Jags G.M. Gene Smith did personally attend Gabbert’s Insight Bowl game against Iowa, however, and the Texans don’t use pre-draft visits on first-round prospects. Which brings us to our next discovery.

    2. Some teams don’t use any pre-draft visits on elite prospects. The Texans, Bears, Jaguars, and Packers concern themselves almost strictly with late-round, undrafted types when scheduling visits. For example, the player drafted earliest with whom we know Green Bay formally visited was Markell Carter, the 194th overall pick. The Raiders and Colts, for the most part, also fall into this category.

    And either the Houston media is not at all concerned with reporting pre-draft visits and workouts, or the Texans just don’t have many of them. (Our guess is the former.) We counted a league-low six Texans pre-draft visits, and each team is allowed up to 30.

    3. 21 of this year’s 32 first-round picks visited or privately worked out for the team that drafted them. One notable outlier was Seahawks tackle James Carpenter. “We tried staying under the radar with this guy,” Seattle G.M. John Schneider confirmed during Carpenter’s introductory press conference. “I told our group … we were very proud of them that his name never got out.” The Seahawks rated Carpenter as the No. 2 offensive lineman in the entire draft.

    But the connection is still strong between first-round picks and pre-draft meetings. Throw out the Texans, Bears, Jaguars, Packers, and Colts for reasons mentioned in point No. 2 here, and there was a 77.8 percent chance that a team’s first-round selection officially visited with or privately worked out for the organization he landed in.

    And that’s pretty substantial.

    4. No team puts in more face time than the Patriots. Bill Belichick’s team has had more private workouts than any club in the NFL over the past two seasons. (Which is as long as we’ve been keeping track.)

    5. The Broncos smokescreened the hell out of quarterbacks. It’s easy to say in hindsight, but here’s a look at QBs Denver showed “interest” in: Colin Kaepernick (both private workout and facility visit), Cam Newton (facility visit), Blaine Gabbert (visit), Jake Locker (private workout), and Christian Ponder (workout). The Broncos didn’t draft a single signal caller.

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...after-tracking-pre-draft-visits-and-workouts/
     
  2. SCOTTexans

    SCOTTexans All Pro

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    Texans FO love having their fans sweat up to the draft day...
     
  3. Corrosion

    Corrosion Idealist

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    Texans FO loves having the competition not knowing what they are doing until they do it.
     
  4. Blake

    Blake MMQB

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    I think they pretty much got our media coverage spot on. McClain is too busy jacking around with Josh and Rich to do any actual work.
     
  5. nero THE zero

    nero THE zero Hall of Fame

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    Or Tweeting about the Titans, Baylor, his psuedo-acting career, parroting Texans PR, and anything else that doesn't involve critical investigation and analysis of the Texans.
     
  6. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Or gobbling down cheeseburgers.

    McClain is living proof of why the print media is dying a slow death.
     
    Topher likes this.
  7. pec0sb0b

    pec0sb0b on the lam

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    At least he quit cheerleading for Kendall Wright. All the mock drafts have the Texans reaching for a second round quality receiver with their first round pick. The Texans never seem to pick a player at the position they are predicted in the first round.
     
  8. welsh texan

    welsh texan Lest we forget

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    I'll ask you a question, if the Texans have a guy who they think is the best available, and he won't be available again by the time they get back on the clock, should they not take him because someone thinks they shouldn't be taken until the start of the 2nd round? They can't find a trade partner, and are stuck with their pick, and really like a specific player, should they quickly log on to TexansTalk and post a poll of whether player x is too much of a reach?

    If they'd done that in 08, we wouldn't have the problem of Duane Brown's contract looming next offseason, that'd be on positive.

    I think people get far too hung up on draft grades, and where players 'should' be picked.

    I'd love to see some stats regarding the long-term pick success of 'reach' players versus guys taken around where they were expected to go. Hell, add in the fallers as well, how do they get on? Must have fell for a reason? Was it justified?

    On another topic, I like the idea that the Texans take a closer look at the lower round prospects, a lot of whom we've had make an impact on our team for a number of years. The first round grade guys have a better body of work on tape for them to see and assess, some of the guys who aren't as strong overall, you can see how they'll respond to coaching, whether their weaknesses are going to be problems going forward etc, great tactic for getting value later on.
     


  9. nero THE zero

    nero THE zero Hall of Fame

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    Kareem Jackson?

    Brian Cushing?

    Duane Brown?
     
  10. Rey

    Rey Guest

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    All the mock drafts lately seem to have us picking Wright, so I think it's safe to assume we are not picking Wright.
     
  11. b0ng

    b0ng Ooops

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    Fine with this.
     
  12. ArlingtonTexan

    ArlingtonTexan Moderator Staff Member

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    I think you bring up some nice points here. One of things that happens with draft talk draft fans and draftsperts talk themselves into believing that they know for sure how teams grade and rank these players. usually outside of the very top prospects some guy carry a grade of late 1st on one teams board maybe as low as mid 3rd on another's. While this may average to a 2nd rounder depending on how the draft falls you could see a team "reach" for a guy in the late first or get great value for the same guy in the mid 3rd when both teams had the player graded where they drafted the guy.
     
  13. SCOTTexans

    SCOTTexans All Pro

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    It goes both ways
     

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