Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Wolf, Jun 17, 2008.
You know.... its hard to argue. I mean you can argue with your heart but.... honestly the DBs might be a real liability. I think 8-8 is more realistic, but to disagree with the record I'd have to see the game by game breakdown. I think its hard to see us going 6-10... but I'd say its more likely that we win less than 8 games than it is that we win more than 10.
Lets be realistic, until we start winning and stop being the Arizona Cardinals of the AFC we will continue to get predictions like this.
If I remember correctly, scout.com gave the Texan draft an F and gave the Titan draft a B- so you have to take there analysis with a grain of salt.
The one exception that I take about his assessment is the overall record. I think the Texans did very well to get to 8-8 with all of the injuries suffered last season which included 9 games missed by AJ. I think this team will have more talent and DEPTH than we've ever had. With that said, I'd don't see this team regressing to 6-10 - so I agree with Mike here. 8-8 again is probably the worst case scenario.
30% 8 wins
40% 9 wins
30% 10 wins
The only way we go 6-10 is to have even more injuries to starters than we did last year.
I still think another 8-8 or 9-7 season is a safe bet for the Texans. But you just never know. We very well could be 6-10 or 10-6 depending on about a billion things.
This is based on game simulation software.
It doesn't take into account a lot of things, such as Alex Gibbs and whatnot.
There's been also statistical stuff that shows that past doesn't do a good job in predicting future records--it's over at the Pro-Football-Reference blog somewhere.
It says we go 3-13 and win the last 3 games to achieve a 6 win season.
That ain't happening!
It doesnt seem logical to think the Texans regressed this offseason. The addition of Gibbs, plus a nice draft and some decent free agent pick ups should count as improvements. The Texans didnt lose any good players, and most importantly, we dont have 17 players on IR.
Id definitely be willing to bet over if the line is 6 wins for the Texans
At first glance, this seems a little harsh, but we still have enough unknowns to go 6-10...while being extremely competitive on all of our games and losing some close ones. That being said, I think we are just as likely to go 10-6 as 6-10 and most likely to end up with an 8-8 average like last year.
So much really depends on how we handle our division. I don't think we can do what we did last year in the division and end over .500.
I quit predicting how the NFL season will play out a while ago. I learned my lesson the hard way I guess. It's a fun thing to do and I guess with predictions like this you gain attention. Anyway, anything could happen in this season. I can see us making the playoffs with some luck or we could be picking in the top 10 in the draft next year. But I think given the offseason we had and the progress the team made last year I think it's logical at least to think that we can win 8 to 9 games this year.
We went 8-8 last year with a fairly abysmal running game, having to pass a lot and the defenses knowing we had to pass, but we still ended up with a top ten passing offense. Our running game should improve this year. Last year our collective safeties and corner backs were not that great, but should improve (as a group) slightly this year. Our D line and LBs should be better.
The catch is, we have a tougher schedule this year than last, so if the players get injured like last year, its gonna be tough. I still say we could be a much improved team and still go 8-8.
However, if some of these "good" teams on our schedule have a off year, we could move up. Hopefully none of the "bad" teams on our schedule have a year of remarkable improvement.
Yep, the analysis itself seems fairly sound, I just think the record can be higher, even given the same criteria.
I don't know what our record will be- how could I? Injuries, confidence, intangibles, etc... all play such a large role in how a season progresses.
What I do know is that we have a pretty good team and have a chance to have an excellent season. I couldn't cherry pick more than a handful of rosters that I'd prefer to the one we've assembled.
I'm saying 9-7 until I see us play Ten and Jax on the road.
Lets be honest here, last years record was really more like 7-9 than 8-8
if the Jags come into Reliant full-bore with their starters in the season finale.
OK splilt the difference and we're 7.5-8.5. The point is a 6 win season is not really much different than last year. Are we better than last year ? Maybe but
we've probably also got a tougher schedule. 6 wins vs. 8 or 9 wins is basically about the injury situation (yours and your oppenents), and a couple
key calls by the zebs.
In reality, if we were the Arizona Cardinals of the AFC, everybody would be picking us to go 10-6 (and we actually would go 6-10).
6 1/2 months from now if we're 10-6, nobody's going to even remember this prediction. To be completely honest, if we're 6-10, nobody's going to remember this prediction then either.
Were we not playing backups? Why, I think we were.
Very good objective opinion Texanmike. I agree with you. Health will be a BIG issue as it is with any team, but the Texans don't have depth really at an position but QB, if the starters go down and you know that some will go down. If Bennett goes down, then the Texans are really going to be in a bad position.
I think the Texans will go 6-10 at the worst and 9-7 at best.
With that being said, the Texans have better players and all but it is still hard to say that they are a team on the rise for BIG things. Until we have a QB, where I can say WOW, he is THE GUY then I dunno. I am really mad about that extension Rick Smith got. He has made some good picks and a few that I don't agree with either. I think that Mcnair should have waited AT LEAST one more year to see what the Texans do this year to have a more accurate idea of where this team is going.
The position I feel the best about on the Texans right now is the WR position and they only have one STUD. Andre Davis played pretty well last year, and I really think if him and Johnson both are healthy this year he can be a guy that could put up 700-900 yards. On the other hand he could end up being a pretender. I think he'll do pretty well. Plus, we still have no idea how Jacoby Jones will play. He looked great in pre season, and then looked like a typical non special rookie before and after his early injury. Maybe Jones will become a great player, but right now he hasn't shown anything to storngly speculate that other than that pre season performance but I have been watching football for to long to put any relevance on pre season.
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