Schaub + Texans = Cutler + Bears????

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Cerberus, Nov 21, 2011.

  1. Cerberus

    Cerberus Hall of Fame

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    Will the Bears losing Cutler have the same effect on the Bears that Schuab will have to the Texans? I only ask, because if you believe that losing Cutler spells doom and gloom for the Bears, you may have to look at the Schaub loss the same. Texans and Bears both have great defenses, both have great running backs, and both just lost their starting QBs. So, before counting out Bears, or penciling-in the Texans for the playoffs, think about the losses of Schaub and Cutler and how they could effect the two teams similarly.
     
  2. robroy72

    robroy72 Veteran

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    IMHO : Our backup QB is much more of a cog in our organization than what the Bears have. We'll look back on this and realize we're lucky to have him, again IMHO.
     
  3. drunkcookie

    drunkcookie 2 drunk 2 cook

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    Bears to have a good RB, but nowhere near the running "game"... Also, from what i can tell Chicago's system differs from the Texans which is more user-friendly for QBs...

    As for each team's playoff hopes, they couldn't be more different... The Texans have a two game lead in a weak division, currently with a tie-breaker over the 2nd place team... The Bears, well they're in the Packers' division...

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  4. GlassHalfFull

    GlassHalfFull Subscribed Contributor

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    Shouldn't the equation read:

    Texans - Schaub = Bears - Cutler ???

    or more likely

    Texans - Schaub > Bears - Cutler ???
     
  5. TexanBacker93

    TexanBacker93 Hall of Fame

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    Really? You don't think that the fact that the Bears are currently sitting in the 6th spot in their playoff chase behind an undefeated Green Bay and the Detriot Lions makes it worse a worse situation than ours?

    If we win our 3 division games we clinch the division and a playoff spot. We aren't trying to fight for a wildcard spot against Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New York, etc. That makes it a heck of a lot easier. Without Schaub I like our chances to beat Tennessee here and Jacksonville and Indianapolis on the road. This team is 7-3 with Schaub, Johnson, and Foster being on the field together for a quarter and a half. We've beaten the Titans and Jaguars without Johnson, and the Colts without Foster.

    I agree that the situations are similar because of the makeup of the team, but if you look at where we currently stand we have a much easier road to get to the playoffs.
     
  6. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    Hanie might surprise people. Leinart, as well. I like both teams' chances to make the playoffs, still.
     
  7. Cerberus

    Cerberus Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, and the Texan's schedule is probably easier too. However, my point is simply that if you "write off" the Bears because of Cutler's injury, what does believing in Leinart and the Texans maybe tell you about Texan fans and this team? You think that maybe they could be a little bias and want to believe Leinart-for-Schaub won't be as bad as Hanie-for-Cutler? None of us will know for sure until they start playing games, but my point is simply that if one is discounted shouldn't the other be discounted as well? Shouldn't both the Bears and Texans be viewed as being in good position, or both viewed as being screwed? And yes, I realize the Texans are in first and the Bears are in second, but there are still 6 more games to play. Both these teams could lose out. Unlikely, but quite possible. But even if they both go 3-3, what are the chances in the playoffs against the elite teams? And if both teams make the playoffs and get their QBs back, do they pull a Marty Schottenheimer (pulled Gannon in favor of Grbac) and pull the "hot hand" for the returning starter?

    I just think losing the starting QB at THIS point in time is a bad thing for any team. Early on, teams were able to change QB either because of ineffective play from the starter or injury, as time progressed teams like the Raiders were able to secure themselves a starter because the trading deadline had not yet passed, but now? Now is a bad time to be "changing horses" IMO. Of course, there is no choice in the matter, but I still think it is bad. At least early on a team could get away with it because other teams were gelling after no TC, but to try and have an offense gel now while playing teams' defense that are finally on the same page; not good!
     
  8. Cerberus

    Cerberus Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, I guess it should have been.
     
  9. ObsiWan

    ObsiWan Site Contributor

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    Your derivation makes more sense.
    :thumbup
     
  10. drunkcookie

    drunkcookie 2 drunk 2 cook

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    For sure... There really is no comparing the two when it comes to playoff implications...

    I don't know what the Bears' remaining schedule is, but for the sake of this post I'll say it's "equal" to the Texans'... And say i felt with Schaub the Texans go 5-1, and with Cutler the Bears go 5-1... If i felt rhe loss of these two starters added up the same for both teams, maybe i'd say each teams finishes the reg season 3-3... Texans would probably still win the division and have a home playoff game... The Bears probably don't make the playoffs...

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  11. Marcus

    Marcus Ruthless pragmatist

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    Doesn't it all depend on who the backup quarterback is? Also, how is the running game on one team verses another? How good is the team overall?

    There is this tendency to place way too much value on the quarterback, and it's wrong to do that.

    Quarterbacks do not get "wins" or "losses" like baseball pitchers.
     
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  12. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    3-3 would make the Bears 10-6, with a head-head tiebreak over the Falcons. The Falcons would have to go 5-1 to overtake them. Not likely. I still like the Bears in the final wildcard spot.
     
  13. drunkcookie

    drunkcookie 2 drunk 2 cook

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    Actually at 10-6 the Bears would still have a chance at a wildcard, but not as good a chance of making the playoffs as the Texans...


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  14. drunkcookie

    drunkcookie 2 drunk 2 cook

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    You beat me to it, i was thinking the Bears were 6-4...

    But still imy sentiment remains, i think the Texans still have the better shot, though both teams have good shots...

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  15. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    True. But the Texans had a better shot at the playoffs prior to both QBs going down. I see Cerberus' point. Neither team is as good as before. But, good enough to make the playoffs.
     
  16. drunkcookie

    drunkcookie 2 drunk 2 cook

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    Oh, no doubt! But the key word (or symbol is this case) was "="... The Texans have the advantage because they still control their own destiny here... But yah it's still close...

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  17. Maddict5

    Maddict5 Hall of Fame

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    i would say cutler is a more important loss to the bears. hes one of the few guys in the league that could suceed there with that line & wrs. our system and sitaution is alot more qb friendly and leinart has a better chance of coming in and suceeding
     
  18. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    I'll play along. Have Texans #3 seed vs. Broncos #6. Texans advance. Face Steelers in Divisional which Texans win. Texans vs Patriots in AFC conference championship & win heading to the Superbowl to meet the Packers. Texans win the Superbowl in an upset 44.3% to 55.7%.

    :logo:
     
  19. sbalderrama

    sbalderrama Rookie

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    The line is key. We have a much better pass protecting line which will give Leinart some time. Cutler was getting killed until they started getting him out of the pocket all the time, but a less capable QB will probably still have trouble.
     
  20. ChampionTexan

    ChampionTexan Site Contributor

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    First, I'm not writing off the Bears chances, just as I'm not suggesting that losing Schaub for the season is anything but a negative.

    However, when you look at the two situations and try to form an opinion on which team is in the better situation to weather their specific circumstances, it is a very defensible position to say it's the Texans.

    As has already been pointed out, their current playoff positioning is better than the Bears, and their remaining schedule is probably a bit tougher than ours as half the teams we play currently have 3 wins or fewer.

    I think the most important single component of why the Texans should deal with the loss of a starting QB better is the running game. When you look at the running and passing (including sacks) percentage to this point in the season, you'll see that the Texans have run the ball approx. 54% of the time, while the Bears number stands at approx. 44%. The YPC is actually pretty comparable at 4.4 for the Texans to 4.3 for the Bears, but this stat tells me the Texans offense is less impacted by the QB than the Bears. It also tells me there's likely to be less of an adjustment to the new QB for the Texans (although the way Martz's mind works, he may choose not to make any adjustments - which would present problems in and of itself).

    The final item that makes me believe the Texans are in a better position to deal with this adversity is their defense. While the OP characterized both defenses as great, it didn't point out that if you evaluate defenses by yards, the Bears are in the bottom 1/3 of the league, while the Texans are #1. If you'd rather go by points allowed, then you're looking at a middle of the pack Bears (13th) compared to the second best scoring defense in the league. The result of all this is a Bears team that has an average point differential of plus 6.1 per game compared to a Texans team of plus 10.7 game. In other words, we're better positioned to deal with a decrease in offensive potency.

    Again, neither team should view it as a positive that their starting QB is out of the rest of the year, nor should either team view it as a sign that their season is over. I just think that in a head to head comparison, the impact on the Texans shouldn't be as great as the impact on the Bears.
     

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