Schaub Prediction

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Jackie Chiles, Aug 22, 2008.

  1. Jackie Chiles

    Jackie Chiles Hall of Fame

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    Hello everyone, first post for me but I've been reading these boards for years. Anyway came across this prediction the other day and since its about Schaub I'm thinking it should be posted here as opposed to the fantasy forum.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=tmr080821

    18. Matt Schaub will throw for 3,500 yards and 28 touchdowns.

    I believe if he stays healthy he trips over 3,500 yards but 28 TDs is probably the best we could hope for. Anything mid 20 plus can only be really good for the team though. Very excited to see how he performs this year and I have a feeling his career will be similar to someone like Matt Hasselbeck.
     
  2. Corrosion

    Corrosion Idealist

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    If healthy for 16 games 3500 yards is not a lofty goal , thats about 218.75 yards per game , Schaubs avg last season was 203.72 so its not a big leap.

    On the other hand , 28 TD's would put him in the top 6 of the category , I'd say thats a lofty expectation. The Texans had 24 last season between Schaub and Rosenfels. I expect this number to be similar this season. I'd have to take the under on 28.(hope I'm wrong)

    The numbers I'm more concerned with is INT's and sack rate.

    Last season Schaub had as many INT's as TD's .... That simply wont do .

    Last season Schaub was sacked once for every 18 attempts while Rosenfels was sacked once for every 40. I'd like to see Schaubs numbers improve here.
    (Do Not insert "Start Sage" thread here) I'd like to see that number closer to 30 than 20 (Brady 27 , Favre 35 , Brees 40) So far this pre-season the Texans are at 1/25 (two sacks in 50 att) while Schaub has no sacks in 21 attempts .
     
  3. infantrycak

    infantrycak Mod. Staff Member

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    That includes three partial games and treats them as full games. Looking only at Schaub's complete games, he averaged 263 ypg which generates a giddy type number over 16 games.
     
  4. J-Russ

    J-Russ Hall of Fame

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    Since this thread is about predictions I'll put this other guy's prediction in here as well.

    Theres this guy on NFLDC, that makes some pretty bold prediction every year before the season starts, and at the end of the year most of his predictions come true. Last year he predicted that Mario will have a break out season and would be consider one of the top DE at the end of the season. I'm guessing he must be a fortune teller, or a warlock or something. I posted a thread on that, Ima go look back and post his words. Well anyways, one of his predictions are about us again.

     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2008
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  5. J-Russ

    J-Russ Hall of Fame

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    Here it is.

     
  6. ReliantTexan

    ReliantTexan Veteran

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    Does Matt's average include the games where he went out early?
     
  7. HJam72

    HJam72 Hall of Fame

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    I really like that guy! :fans:
     
  8. Corrosion

    Corrosion Idealist

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    Nope , as Cak pointed out , Schaub had 263 ypg in those games he started and finished which would equate to 4208 yards for the season. Only three teams had more than 4200 passing yards last season. Those teams were NE , GB and NO. Dallas was 4th at 4105. Ther Texans were 11th with 3751 , an avg of 234 per game.


    Again , the passing yardage numbers dont concern me nearly as much as the number of int's to attempts and the number of sacks per attempt. Turnovers and negative plays have such a huge effect upon a game ....
     


  9. ATX

    ATX Hall of Fame

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    3900 yards
    24 TDs
    14 Ints
     
  10. brakos82

    brakos82 Hall of Fame

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    Well, if you're gonna compare them...........

    2001 Hasselbeck (13 games):
    176/321 (54.8 pct), 2023 yds (6.3 ypa), 7/8 TD/INT, 38 sacks (2.9 spg), 6/2 fumbles/lost

    2007 Schaub (11 games):
    192/289 (66.4 pct), 2241 yds (7.8 ypa), 9/9 TD/INT, 16 sacks (1.2 spg), 7/3 fumbles/lost
     
  11. ObsiWan

    ObsiWan Site Contributor

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    So say we all.
    Between 30 and 35 would be even better.

    And 28 TDs should be quite do-able if Schaub doesn't get cheap-shot (is "cheap-shotted" a word?) again this season and A.J. stays on the field too. Actually, given those stipulations, 32+ TDs ought to be within reach this year. Just as long as - like you said - they don't come with 32+ turnovers.
     
  12. kiwitexansfan

    kiwitexansfan Site Contributor

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    Welcome aboard Jackie, I think those predictions are conservative if AJ and Schaub are injury free.

    I think the biggest threat to those sort of numbers would be the discovery of an effective running game. I think Kubiak would prefer to pound the ball but as that isn't working yet, Schaub will tear it up.
     
  13. Eight Gov

    Eight Gov Rookie

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    I have Schaub down for 3900 yds and 23 TDs and 11 INTs
     
  14. 76Texan

    76Texan Hall of Fame

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    3,600 yd, 24 TDs, 9 Ints, 8 sacks
     
  15. brakos82

    brakos82 Hall of Fame

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    Call me bored...

    *PapaL screams: "Hey Bored!"*

    *I scream back: "Shut up!"*

    but I extrapolated the stats from the games that Andre Johnson was in... and so far, so good:
    312/471 (66.1% comp), 3933 yds (8.35ypa), 27 TD 11 INT, 6 sacks, and 0 fumbles.
     
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