Brian Burke is one of the stats genius. He has his own website AdvancedNFLStats.com This article is his regular contribution with the New York Times Weekly NFL Blog. He put the Texans probability to win the game at 67% If you love stats, you will love his studies at the site I mention above. (TX Mike, have I ever mentioned this to you? I'm sure you will love the site.) Baltimore and Houston, the top two A.F.C teams by win-loss record, meet this Sunday. No other conference rival is above .500. But while Houston has been dominant so far this season, Baltimore has been exceptionally lucky. The Ravens 5-1 record is misleading, and if there is anything Ive learned from studying team fortunes, early season records can be very poor indicators of future success. The Ravens are three plays and another 3 points from being 1-5. Justin Tuckers field goal barely made it over the right upright to win the game against New England. The Browns rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden missed on two passes into the end zone, handing the Ravens a win. The Cowboys mismanaged the final seconds and missed a 51-yard field-goal attempt last Sunday to give Baltimore another win. And the Ravens barely escaped Kansas City, 9-6, one of the worst teams in the league. Such is the razor-thin margin between elite and doormat this season. The Ravens arent the team we all remember, the one that won defense/punt competitions, 13-10. This years team features a top offensive squad and a below-average defensive unit. And the Ravens defense is now without three of its best players: the pass rusher Terrell Suggs, who has been out all year with an off-season Achilles injury; cornerback Lardarius Webb, who tore an anterior cruciate ligament; and the all-world linebacker Ray Lewis, who may have played his last game after tearing his right triceps in the final minutes of last Sundays game. Until last weekends loss to the Packers, Houston had been one of the most complete teams in the league. Strong and balanced on both sides of the ball, the Texans look destined to dominate the A.F.C. South. The Texans are above average in nearly every category, barely dipping into average territory in the running game. With home-field advantage, Houston should be expected to be the substantial favorite this Sunday.