QB Projections

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football Talk' started by thunderkyss, Aug 12, 2013.

  1. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    This is how the QBs rank according to Fantasy Sharks

    Newton,Cam CAR 4
    Brees,Drew NOS 7
    Rodgers,Aaron GBP 4
    Griffin III,Robert WAS 5
    Kaepernick,Colin SFO 9
    Wilson,Russell SEA 12
    Luck,Andrew IND 8
    Ryan,Matt ATL 6
    Stafford,Matthew DET 9
    Romo,Tony DAL 11
    Manning,Peyton DEN 9
    Brady,Tom NEP 10
    Manning,Eli NYG 9
    Cutler,Jay CHI 8
    Dalton,Andy CIN 12
    Vick,Michael PHI 12
    Freeman,Josh TBB 5
    Roethlisberger,Ben PIT 5
    Locker,Jake TEN 8
    Rivers,Philip SDC 8
    Schaub,Matt HOU 8
    Flacco,Joe BAL 8
    Palmer,Carson ARI 9
    Bradford,Sam STL 11
    Ponder,Christian MIN 5
    Flynn,Matt OAK 7
    Tannehill,Ryan MIA 6
    Smith,Alex KCC 10
    Kolb,Kevin BUF 12
    Weeden,Brandon CLE 10
    Sanchez,Mark NYJ 10
    Gabbert,Blaine JAC 9
    Henne,Chad JAC 9
    Smith,Geno NYJ 10​

    Of course, FF rankings doesn't mean they expect Cam Newton to be the best QB in the league, or Blaine Gabbert to be the worst. It's based on a point system, similar to QBR, but winning & efficiency aren't really factors.

    Most of your major FF ratings are similar. A particular QB may move up or down a spot or two. What I find interesting is the relative groupings that these QBs find themselves in. For instance, Matt Schaub's fantasy points are going to be similar to Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, & Carson Palmer. Which is probably about right.

    If you notice, they (Fantasy Sharks) have Jake Locker right there in that group. Basically they're saying his combination of passing yards, TDs, INTs, rushing yards, etc... will be similar to Rivers, Roethlisberger, Palmer, & Schaub.

    Surely no one (but me as I just about always draft Big Ben) is going to have a QB on their roster from this low on their cheat sheet. But... does that make sense to you? Do you think Locker is going to have a breakout year?

    In 2012, he was 28th in yards, 30th in TDs, he threw 11 INTs, & had a 74 QB rating.

    Anyway, I thought that was interesting.
     
  2. PapaL

    PapaL Loose Screw

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    That's the first time I've seen anyone forecast Cam over Brees or Rodgers.

    This is how Yahoo has them currently ranked.

    Aaron Rodgers
    Drew Brees
    Cam Newton
    Peyton Manning
    Colin Kaepernick
    Robert Griffin III
    Tom Brady
    Russell Wilson
    Matt Ryan
    Matthew Stafford
    Andrew Luck
    Tony Romo
    Eli Manning
    Ben Roethlisberger
    Michael Vick
    Andy Dalton
    Joe Flacco
    Philip Rivers
    Sam Bradford
    Carson Palmer
    Matt Schaub
    Jay Cutler
    Alex Smith
    Ryan Tannehill
    Josh Freeman
     
  3. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Look at where they've got Dalton. Both lists, he's ahead of some pretty good QBs & imo he hasn't shown he has the ability or the weapons to justify their predictions.

    Like Locker, he's got a threat in CJ that's going to keep teams honest, then he's got Britt & Wright, so I can kind of see him throwing for 4000 yards or so (in Fantasy Sharks predictions, they've got Schaub throwing for 4300 yards, 22 TDs, & 12 ints.)

    They've got Dalton for 329 points, Locker for 295, & Schaub for 291... I'm not seeing it. Their scoring is a little different than my league, but in my league Schaub finished with 252 (18th), Dalton with 271 (16th), & Locker with 149 (29th)... that's a heck of a jump their expecting from Locker.
     
  4. powda

    powda Hall of Fame

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    Im in a 12 team league and i count 12-13 solid names. After the usual suspects (brees, rodgers, manning, brady) the remainder don't seem like liabilities. A guy like wilson might but up better numbers then emanning sure, but if i have to draft him a round earlier to get wilson is it worth the talent I pass at other positions? I dunno. I'm leaning toward being one of the last in my league to draft a qb. What do you guys think?
     
  5. IBleedTexans

    IBleedTexans Superbowl Bound

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    I was kinda thinking that too. It just seems that 2 stud backs are needed, and there's only so many elite TE's that's its hard picking Cam over Gronk or Jimmy.
     
  6. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Coming off back surgery, possible candidate for the PUP list... where are you targeting Gronkowski?
     
  7. powda

    powda Hall of Fame

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    I'd fill qb, 2rbs, 2wr's, 1flex, before I consider it...so 7th round or MUCH later.
     
  8. SCOTTexans

    SCOTTexans All Pro

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    I will be drafting a QB later, I have been averaging the 5th rd. You can get Matt Ryan in weaker leagues but I have been drafting Wilson about 90% of the time in that round...
     


  9. PapaL

    PapaL Loose Screw

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    Dalton has AJ Green. He's easily better than whomever is playing WR for the Titans. I think that's about right for him. I'd disagree that he doesn't have the ability tho. He should be a decent fantasy play this year especially if you miss out on the top group. At that point you don't have that much vested in him.
     
  10. b0ng

    b0ng Ooops

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    That seems really really high for Wilson, how many people per league?

    My thing with QB's is, how much higher is their point output going be than the guys below them. With RB's this year in particular, the production falls off of a cliff once you get to like the second or third round due to all the RBBC going on in the NFL. So that means if you're taking a QB in rounds 1-3 you're going to miss out on getting two, or possibly even one true stud running back and that's going to hurt your overall production.

    If you look at fantasy production overall at PFW you can see that QB's litter the top 20, and the difference between each is fairly marginal. With RB's the drop off is very sharp and after the top 10 or so guys (And remember, most leagues you have to start 2 RB's) you're scrambling with hopes and prayers.

    I think if you guys are thinking about going early on QB's, you should look around at some fantasy statistics sites and see how they shook out last year:

    Code:
    Rank 	Fantasy Pts
    1 	Drew Brees  331.07
    2 	Aaron Rodgers  326.97
    3 	Tom Brady 	316.10
    4 	Cam Newton  312.67
    5 	Robert Griffin  303.17
    6 	Peyton Manning  292.90
    7 	Matt Ryan 	289.40
    8 	Andrew Luck  270.30
    9 	Tony Romo 	 268.23
    10 	Russell Wilson  267.83
    Code:
    Rank   Fantasy Points
    1 	Adrian Peterson 	309.40
    2 	Arian Foster 	264.10
    3 	Doug Martin 	263.60
    4 	Marshawn Lynch 	248.60
    5 	Alfred Morris 	244.00
    6 	Ray Rice 	  222.10
    7 	C.J. Spiller 	215.30
    8 	Jamaal Charles 	207.50
    9 	Trent Richardson 	203.70
    10 	Stevan Ridley 	201.40
    11 	Frank Gore 	197.80
    12 	Chris Johnson 	179.50
    13 	Matt Forte 	178.40
    14 	Reggie Bush 	173.80
    15 	Shonn Greene 	168.40
    16 	Steven Jackson 	162.30
    17 	Ahmad Bradshaw  159.00
    18 	Michael Turner 	157.80
    19 	BenJarvus Green-Ellis 	153.80
    20 	Mikel Leshoure 	152.20
    As you can see it's much tougher finding that stud runningback and you really want to have about 3 of them that you can feel good about. Getting a QB who's going to give you solid output isn't as nearly as difficult to find as you might think it is, especially with most teams having 2 usually at most.

    No matter what position I'm in, in the draft, I will smile for every QB, or WR that gets taken before me. I really think it'd do you well to think hard about which positions on your roster are going to be the most difficult to maximize your points, and this year with all of the passing and RBBC, finding those bellcow backs are going to be tough, and will propel your team a lot farther than most in your league.
     
  11. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    I really appreciate the input concerning FF strategy. But the last two years, my problem (to me) had been WRs. I had blue chip QBs & RBs, but with only one Receiver capable of putting up a 30 point week (in my league) it was difficult for me to win games & never a threat to win the week.

    How do you look at WRs & decide when to take them?
     
  12. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    How many teams in your league & what is your scoring system?
     
  13. SCOTTexans

    SCOTTexans All Pro

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  14. b0ng

    b0ng Ooops

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    Well the original post you have by your 5th round pick, which I pointed that I think that's too high for him. 6th - 7th round is about right for him. Most of the time in the 5th and 6th rounds you still have guys like Reggie Wayne/Hakeem Nicks/Mike Wallace/Wes Welker available, and I think I'd rather have one of those guys being my WR2 than taking a stab at a guy like Wilson in the 5th.
     
  15. b0ng

    b0ng Ooops

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    What Playoffs said, and after that you have to look at overall there is a lot of passing going on in the league right now you've got some tiers of guys:

    Calvin Johnson

    Brandon Marshall
    AJ Green
    Dez Bryant
    Demariyus Thomas

    Andre
    Julio Jones
    Roddy White
    Larry Fitz
    VJax

    I think if you're picking 6th or lower in the first round, you can consider Megatron, but in the mocks that I've done I almost always hate my runningbacks if I do that. If you look at last year's fantasy points (again from PFW):

    Code:
    Rank 	Fantasy Pts
    1 	Calvin Johnson 	223.40
    2 	Brandon Marshall 	216.60
    3 	Dez Bryant 	210.70
    4 	A.J. Green 	203.80
    5 	Demaryius Thomas 	200.40
    6 	Vincent Jackson 	188.40
    7 	Eric Decker 	184.40
    8 	Andre Johnson 	183.80
    9 	Julio Jones 	182.80
    10 	Roddy White 	177.10
    11 	Marques Colston 	173.40
    12 	Wes Welker 	172.40
    13 	Victor Cruz 	169.20
    14 	Michael Crabtree 	165.30
    15 	Reggie Wayne 	164.00
    16 	James Jones 	162.40
    17 	Randall Cobb 	156.60
    18 	Mike Williams 	154.53
    19 	Steve Smith 	143.10
    20 	Lance Moore 	140.10

    As you can see the separation between absolutely the cream of the crop and the next 7 guys isn't that remarkable. I feel like WR's fall into the position of second most important to draft behind RB. If a potentially great one falls to you (Like a QB) snatch him up, but if you can't decide just go RB, you'll probably be better off for it.
     
    powda likes this.
  16. powda

    powda Hall of Fame

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    Im thinking of treating the qb's and te's the same. After the first couple of guys the point margins arent so drastic between #4 and #14 so why hurry?

    My first 4 picks will be 3rbs and 1 wr in some order most benificial.

    (We have a flex where I plug in a 3rd stud running back every year and it works out really well for me.)

    Anyway, great stuff bong. Dont stop posting!
     

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