QB Comparison - Any takers?

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Grndzro, Feb 10, 2006.

  1. Grndzro

    Grndzro Rookie

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    I wanted to offer a perspective to everyone on the boards and try to get everyone to understand how the talent level on the team overall effects a quarterbacks play. So I decided to do some research and compare the first four years of David Carr’s career to Hall of Famer Troy Aikman. Since Carr started with an expansion team and in Aikman’s first year the team was 1-15. Good starting point for both I think. So I will list the first four years and the statistics and then go into more detail on the 4th year. Since everyone expects a quarterback to be at their potential at that point.

    1st Year Games Comp Att Pct Yards TD/Int sacks/Yds
    Carr 16 233 444 52.5 2592 9/15 N/A
    Aikman 11 155 293 52.9 1749 9/18 N/A

    2nd Year Games Comp Att Pct Yards TD/Int Sacks/Yds
    Carr 12 167 295 56.6 2013 9/13 N/A
    Aikman 15 226 399 56.6 2579 11/18 N/A

    3rd Year Games Comp Att Pct Yards TD/Int Sacks/Yds
    Carr 16 285 466 61.2 3531 16/14 49/301
    Aikman 12 237 363 65.3 2754 11/10 32/224

    4th Year Games Comp Att Pct Yards TD/Int Sacks/Yds
    Carr 16 256 423 60.5 2488 14/11 68/424
    Aikman 16 302 473 63.8 3445 23/14 23/112

    As everyone can see, Carr was progressing the first three years on par with what Aikman did. Now comes the dreaded 4th year where everyone decides Carr sucks and he needs to be ran out of town. Just look at the numbers, in the 4th year Aikman took his team to the Super bowl while Carr took his team to the number 1 pick. After looking at the numbers I said to myself something must be wrong, lets look at the team as a whole. I mean it is a team game, regardless of what some VY lovers will tell you. So lets start by comparing the two units that actually do the dirty work. The offensive line:

    Texans Pro-bowler Cowboys Pro-bowler
    Riley/Pitts No E. Williams Yes
    Pitts/Brown No N. Newton Yes
    Mckinney No Stepnoski Yes
    Weigert/Weary No Gogan Yes
    Wade/Weigert No Tuinei Yes
    Sacks allowed – 68/424 Sacks allowed – 23/112

    I know what you are saying, Carr runs into sacks and runs out of bounds with the ball. I agree that he does, but I am willing to bet that it is more because of the line than not. I know this still doesn’t mean anything. So let’s look at this a bit further. Let’s look at the offensive supporting cast. Now VY can win games on his own, but mere mortals need help, so lets break them down:

    Rushing
    Texans
    Davis – 230 att – 976 yds – 4.2 yds/c – 2 TD
    Wells - 90 - 325 - 3.6 - 4
    Morency – 46 - 184 - 4.0 - 2

    Cowboys
    Smith – 373 – 1713yds – 4.6 yds/c – 18 TD

    Receiving
    Texans Cowboys
    Johnson – 63 rec – 688 yds -10.7 av.– 2 TD Irvin – 78 - 1396 - 17.9 - 7 Gaffney – 55 - 492 - 8.9 - 2 Harper – 35 - 562 -16.1- 4TD
    Bradford – 34 - 436 - 12.8 - 5 Martin – 32 - 359 - 11.2- 3TD
    Rivers - 24 168 - 7.0 - 0 Novacek – 68 – 630 - 9.3- 6TD

    Defense
    Texans Cowboys
    NFL Ranking 31 1st


    So in conclusion I think by looking at the numbers that maybe, just maybe Carr has gotten a lot of blame that is not justified. Everyone’s question is can a Carr take the Texans to the Super Bowl? Well Aikman did, and the stats say Carr is just as good, its just Aikman had a all pro supporting cast. Maybe I am wrong, maybe the numbers lie. I am sure many will spin the numbers to justify what they think. I just wanted to give a different view instead of all the man love for VY that is going on around here. Oh and by the way, one more thing, Emmitt Smith was 5’-9 210 pds and Reggie Bush is 6’-0 205 pds. So I guess size is not a question. All the Carr haters and VY slobber monsters can fire away.
     
  2. Grndzro

    Grndzro Rookie

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    Sorry about the stats being off, I could not get it to adjust correctly.:homer:
     
  3. Dr. Toro

    Dr. Toro All Pro

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    Hey.... interesting comparison. Carr's stats don't bother me so much as the way he appears in the pocket. You may be right that it's the offensive line to blame. Appearances can be misleading and maybe those 1-3 year comparison are what matters.

    To me, the regression this year is alarming. Either it was the perfect storm of Johnson injury, no-TE/#2 receiver, poor line play, coaching turmoil, conservative offense that caused Carr to take two steps back or year 3 was the aberration. We may never know.
     
  4. Grndzro

    Grndzro Rookie

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    I tend to go with the fact that the team was bad as a whole and therefore everything sucked. Its just the quarterback is always going to get the blame.
     
  5. zeplin

    zeplin Veteran

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    Good work. This is all big picture type stuff. Hopefully the Carr haters will be able to unbiasly look at this comparison without the VY goggles slamming down over their eyes.
     
  6. Hardcore Texan

    Hardcore Texan Magnet Man

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    I like it, it is nice to see the comparison, I still think Carr will flourish under Kubiak, and be a great QB.
     
  7. Grid

    Grid Hall of Fame

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    good post.. pretty interesting.
     
  8. chapone22

    chapone22 Rookie

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    Are you looking at the same stats ????Carr Is up and down like a Yo Yo .Aikman stats get better every year..And how can you compare and Expansion team who gets first round drafts and time to build a team to a 1- 15 team there is no comparing ...Wake up and get your head out of the sand Carr is a backup quarterback nothing more..So If he is back next year look for a another year the Texans watching the playoffs at Home.....
     


  9. Grndzro

    Grndzro Rookie

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    Actually Chappy, it is you who did not pay attention to the stats. In many ways Carr did better than Aikman until the 4th year. Both had years that they had injuries and had similar stats if you compare the number of games played. I was also comparing the team as a whole to show how a quarterback can look good or bad depending on the teams play and talent. Now if you think that Carr behind the 1992 Cowboy line could not throw up similar numbers to Aikman then thats your opinion, but i think he could. Now if you want to come at me with some facts then go for it, but if all you have is silly head in the sand dribble then go hump somone elses leg.
     
  10. run-david-run

    run-david-run Hall of Fame

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    Another thing, Aikman is a Hall of Fame Qb. Yet despite that supporting cast, Aikman never threw for 4000 yards in a season. Carr threw for 3500 yards in year 3, when AJ was healthy and the line wasnt that bad, and we threw downfield. My question is, how can we forget that so quickly? The guy threw for 3500 yds while still being the most sacked QB. There must be talent there! He also has thrwon more TD's then Int's in the last two years. The talent is there, if he can get the coaching and supporting cast to show it off, we are all going to be very happy about this contract extension.
     
    thunderkyss likes this.
  11. edo783

    edo783 Site Contributor

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    Good post and spot on.
     
  12. rmartin65

    rmartin65 I'm Score

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    Great post, I never noticed that.
     
  13. Koolbrz

    Koolbrz Veteran

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    Great post dude, only problem is some of these guys do not think that stats mean a thing. I can't figure out why? Anyways, great job and looking forward to Carr shutting up all the nay sayers in the coming yrs. I bet they will jump on that bandwagon when it happens...:)
     
  14. GoBlue

    GoBlue Rookie

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    Very nice post. I don't think we should confuse Carr with Aikman (one of them is in the Hall of Fame), but Carr has enough talent to get us there. He just can't do it alone/with people holding him down (I'm looking at you Pendry).

    For crying out loud, people in Detroit think Mike Martz is going to make Joey Harrington into Kurt Warner (in his prime, not as he is with the Cardinals). The least we can do is give our football people a bit of credit for knowing what they are doing and keeping Carr around.
     
  15. PapaL

    PapaL Loose Screw

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    As far as problems with the offense, I think this is one of the bigger problems:
    HOU
    Rivers - 24 168 - 7.0 - 0

    DAL
    Novacek – 68 – 630 - 9.3- 6TD

    44 catches is a big difference, especially for a young QB. You'd have to believe if David could have throw even 22 more passes to his TE, his sack numbers would read a whole lot less.
     
  16. Wolf

    Wolf 100% Texan

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    thanks ! saved me some typing about TE's
     
  17. touttail

    touttail All Pro

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    My gosh, just look at the offense Carr had to run. No check off to a pass play, run only. No downfield plays called by the offensive co-ordinators. Run the first two downs, then pass on 3rd. down. The first 3 years the offense was somewhat more open. Last year it was so conservative, no one could accumulate any kind of stats, except for the opposing defense.

    Bobby 119C
     
  18. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    You're not the only one who understands football/talent. I understand completely how the talent level of the team can effect the play of the quarterback. Look, do you have a problem picking out a bad player on a good team?? What about an outstanding talent on an average team?? Do you think you can find one player on the SuperBowl Raven's defense that didn't carry his share of the load?? It's the same thing here. Some people think Carr's got it, some people don't. Compare Aikman's stats to Aaron Brooks, and let's see what we got. Think Aaron Brooks is going to take anyone to the SuperBowl?? think he desrves one more year?? Do you think he has talent??
    see the problem with using words like everyone expects... you aren't ever right. I don't think Steve McNair was anywhere close to his peak, in his 4th year. But I knew he was going to be an NFL star in his 3rd year...... the first year he really got to play.
    A lot of people thought Carr sucked from the word go. I've never thought he was a franchise QB.
    5'9" 210 pds is bigger than 6'-0" 205 pounds. @ 6'0" Reggie needs to be closer to 215 to be of comparable size to Emmitt.


    I can't figure out why either......... 3000passing Yards. 1000 rushing yards. Leads league in Regular season for passing effieciency...
     
  19. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    One more thing I want to add to this whole thing. Let's look at what Dom Capers did with the Panthers, then look at what he did with Houston. Remember, we wanted Capers, because he had early success with Franchise teams.

    I'm sure, there are many differences between our team, and those Carolina Panthers. (who along with the Jacksonville Jaguars aren't much older than the Houston Texans, but both have winning traditions) But one difference with our team an Carolina(and Jacksonville) is that in Carolina, used a veteran Quarterback. Jacksonville did too. Neither team had a problem choosing a better QB than the one they previously had. I'll take Carr over Kerry Collins, but if Kerry is struggling with a team, you'll need more than David Carr to fix that team. But my point is...... I wonder how much Caper's hands were tied because playing David Carr was more of a job requirement than personal preference.
     
  20. TexanBacker93

    TexanBacker93 Hall of Fame

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    I don't see a regression in the stats. There isn't the progression, but I wouldn't necessarily call it a regression. The % was there, the INTs are down, the TDs are about the same, but down a little, and the yards are down. He had a couple of horrible statistical games that really hurt his numbers. I think most people here could care less about the numbers if the team were winning. Unfortunately that didn't happen.

    Where I did see a regression is in the pocket. I think 206 sacks in 4 years has caused him to be quick to run out and into the arms of DEs. It's not like he has ever been able to step into a pocket to make a pass. McKinney gets bullrushed by long wispy string and gives Carr nowhere to go. He has got to have the time and he has got to learn how to stay and make the play.
     

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