Puzzling AJ Stats

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by CloakNNNdagger, Nov 17, 2010.

  1. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    This thread is in no way to diss AJ and his accomplishments. However, I was curious about an impression that I have borne over the years and wanted to look into. Outside of some scattered "highlight reel" moments of AJ dragging several tacklers with him after a catch, it seemed to me that over the years, AJ not uncommonly has gone down quickly after the catch.

    I found this interesting set of NFL stats published by STATS LLC which left me asking myself more questions.


    ******************************


    AJ is 3rd in the AFC for receiving yards.

    AJ is 4th in the NFL for receiving yards.


    AJ is tied for 4th (3 way) in the AFC for big catches (>25 yards).

    AJ is tied for 5th (6 way) in the NFL for big catches (>25 yards).


    ******************************


    AJ is tied (2 way) for only 16th in the AFC for receiver yards after the catch. (BTW, Arian Foster is #1)

    AJ is not even ranked within the top 20 in the NFL for receiver yards after the catch (Arian Foster is #4)


    AJ is only 13th in the AFC for receiver yards per catch.

    AJ is not even ranked within the top 20 in the NFL for receiver yards per catch.


    AJ is tied for 2nd (5 way) in the AFC for receiver dropped catches.

    AJ is tied for 3rd (9 way) in the NFL for receiver dropped catches.


    AJ is tied for 15th (6 way) in the AFC for touchdown receptions.

    AJ is not even ranked within the top 20 in the NFL for touchdown receptions.


    AJ is not even ranked with the top 20 in the AFC for % passes caught/target.

    AJ is not even ranked with the top 20 in the NFL for % passes caught/target.


    *************************


    *There are other receiving stats that you can pull up on the above linked site if you wish.
     
  2. kiwitexansfan

    kiwitexansfan Site Contributor

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    All easily accounted for I feel. Responses above in Red.
     
  3. Thorn

    Thorn Dirty Old Man

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    Between AJ's bum ankle and unwise use of the offensive talent on this team, I'm not suprised.
     
  4. silvrhand

    silvrhand Site Contributor

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    And the fact that Matt can't hit a receiver in stride on a long throw consistently..
     
  5. TheCD

    TheCD All Pro

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    If you notice when AJ is thrown the ball, there is a guy on him or right next to him just about every time. I would consider this more or less a result of double-teaming in terms of YACs.

    On top of that, guys that tend to have high YACs like Kenny Britt or DeSean Jackson have QBs who can throw a bomb 60 yards down the field in stride, leaving the DBs unable to catch up. AJ, on the other hand, consistently has to turn and wait for the ball.

    I would be willing to bet that a guy like Peyton/Vick/Rivers/Brady would be unbelievably scary with AJ. Unfortunately, our QB is above average, but is a typical WCO QB in that he is very good at the short-medium throws, but suffers on the long ball.
     
  6. HOU-TEX

    HOU-TEX Ah, Football!

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    The only thing that has ever bothered me about AJ, besides the occasional drop, is his yardage to TD ratio. IMO, he isn't targeted enough in the redzone. We hardly ever throw fade routes to him when he obviously has every advantage over CBs.

    You have to feed the beast for the beast to beast.
     
  7. BigBull17

    BigBull17 Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, Matt can't throw the deep ball. It's very sad to see sure TD's lost due to under throws.
     
  8. eriadoc

    eriadoc Texan-American

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    AJ has never been a YAC or TD machine. And the QB argument doesn't hold up, because the greatest YAC WR in the history of the NFL had a QB that wouldn't be described as strong-armed by anyone. In fact, "typical WCO QB" was invented by the man, pretty much.

    This is the part that bothers me. Perhaps they know something we don't. Maybe AJ sucks at running the fade route. I don't know. I just know that if I were an OC, AJ would be a prime weapon in the EZ.
     
  9. qman_tx

    qman_tx Veteran

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    Bad ankle and Schaub underthrowing! Does Schaub think AJ is slow or something? AJ is freaking 4.3 speed!!! The Jags game, AJ burned Mathis on the post corner route and had him beat at least 10 yards.
     
  10. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

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    The problem is that by the time Matt gets back and set to throw, AJ has already out run his arm.
     
  11. HOU-TEX

    HOU-TEX Ah, Football!

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    That might be true, but AJ usually gets that wide open due to play-action. IMO, Schaub is very good with his play-action fakes and he might take a bit more time than normal.

    I's just piggy-backin on your post cuz we pretty much agree
     
  12. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

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    I think you said it better than I did.
     
  13. Texan_Bill

    Texan_Bill Subscribed Contributor

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    "Stats are for losers" ~ Bill Belichick

    No seriously, I'll take AJ 7 times a week and twice on Sundays.
     
  14. HOU-TEX

    HOU-TEX Ah, Football!

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    I think we all would, stump-humper. We're just looking at faults in his game, which are likely not really his fault.
     
  15. Texan_Bill

    Texan_Bill Subscribed Contributor

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    Stump-humper?? Okay Mr. Solidity! :ahhaha:
     
  16. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Me either

    The ankle is the big problem. IMHO
     
  17. HOU-TEX

    HOU-TEX Ah, Football!

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    That's me!

    "Now it’s solid
    Solid as a rock [Ooh]
    That’s what this love is (Oh…oh…)
    That’s what we’ve got [Oh…oh…] (Yes, it is)"

    "Solid
    Solid as a rock
    And nothing’s changed it [Oh…]
    The thrill is still hot, hot, hot, hot, hot, hot, hot, hot"
     
  18. Double Barrel

    Double Barrel Modified Simian

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    I'm a fan of Schaub, but this is one of his glaring weaknessess. Drives me crazy, because you can see open field just waiting to be taken if he'd just hit his WR in stride.

    I have absolutely no doubt that if AJ were matched up with a Brady or Manning he would get multiple rings. And he'd probably get at least one with the other QBs you mentioned, especially when you consider that they have coaches that know how to game plan and work within the ebb and flow during games.
     
  19. mattieuk

    mattieuk Site Contributor

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    His biggest fault?

    He hasn't managed to mentor another receiver to be exactally like him in every way.

    Other than that, the guy is a stud receiver.
     
  20. infantrycak

    infantrycak Lead Moderator Staff Member

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    AJ was actually high on YAC his first couple seasons. Scheme has a lot to do with it. All the HWWNBN really short fast passes he would run out for additional yardage. Now he is generally targeted much further down the field and closer to the safety coverage.

    Schaub has one of the best play actions in the league but as an example of this AJ was wide open against the Hags when Rashean Mathis bit hook, line and sinker on play action. Two steps toward the LOS and AJ was gone.

    The phenomenon is definitely there but the cause is uncertain to me. Schaub has indicated on several occasions that what people have thought were poorly thrown balls were intentional placement by him. He has talked about throwing it if anything short rather than long to make sure the WR has a play on the ball. He has talked about throwing low (lots of TE passes over the middle) or high (AJ on the sidelines) even though it makes the catch more difficult in order to minimize the chance of an INT. Not sure if it is his idea or his coaching. The arm seems least likely to me as it happens on 30 yard in the air passes and then he'll chuck one 50 yards. He clearly does not have the zip of Vick or McNabb, etc. though.
     

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