Players likely to be available at and worth #18

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by keyser, Mar 1, 2008.

  1. keyser

    keyser Hall of Fame

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    I sometimes get confused with just where various players are expected to go, who we might be able to choose from at pick 18, etc. I wanted to know who would is likely to be available to choose from, and who is genrally considered "worth" a number 18 pick. So, I went out and looked at 6 post-combine mocks posted online (scout.com, Don Banks at SI.com, NFLDraftCoundown, WalterFootball, and two at NFLDraftScout.com), to see where the general consensus was.

    Based on that, there are 11 players for which there's a consensus that they'll be gone by our pick:
    Chris Long
    Jake Long
    Darren McFadden
    Matt Ryan
    Sedrick Ellis
    Vernon Gholston
    Glenn Dorsey
    Ryan Clady
    Leodis McKelvin
    Mike Jenkins
    Philip Merling

    Five of the six also had these three players gone before us (and all had them taken in the first round):
    Keith Rivers
    Rashard Mendenhall
    Derrick Harvey

    So, we can probably assume those 14 are gone, and we're left to choose from the rest (though three others will probably be selected first). Now, I wanted to see who would be considered "worth" a number 18 pick. The following are the list of players that at least 4 of the 6 mocks had as being taken in the first round, and that at least 2 of the 6 had as being taken at 18 or earlier.
    • Malcom Kelly (taken in all 6, ranged from 11 to 22)
    • Jonathan Stewart (taken in all 6, ranged from 13 to 25)
    • Chris Williams (taken in all 6, ranged from 13 to 25)
    • Aqib Talib (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 7 to 30)
    • Limas Sweed (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 11 to 26)
    • Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 10 to 30)
    • Jeff Otah (taken in 4 of 6, ranged from 14 to 23)
    So, out of those 7, we ought to have at least 4 to choose from. Kelly and Sweed are probably not on our radar (can't see us drafting a WR high), and Otah is probably a bad fit for the ZBS we're shifting to. But, we should be able to get one of the other 4, and they all see pretty good options.
     
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  2. bah007

    bah007 Hall of Fame

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    If Williams is off the board, then I'm still of the opinion that we should take Antoine Cason.

    The guy is supremely underrated by mock drafters. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go before 18 on draft day.
     
  3. nero THE zero

    nero THE zero Hall of Fame

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    I would rank them like this:

    Chris Williams
    Jonathan Stewart
    Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
    Aqib Talib
    Jeff Otah
    Malcom Kelly
    Limas Sweed

    I expect Brandon Flowers to be in the mix though as well.
     
  4. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    I don't. Flowers is not a first round talent.
     
  5. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    I like Cason as well, but talking to my people, as of right now, he isn't expected to go in the first round. He is looking like a mid second, but some of my sources have him slipping to the early third.
     
  6. bah007

    bah007 Hall of Fame

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    I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

    He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

    I'm not buying it.

    I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.
     
  7. TexansSeminole

    TexansSeminole Hall of Fame

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    Agree with this. I'd trust Cason to be our #2 corner from day 1, easily.

    If he and DRC are there at #18 and Mike Jenkins, and Leodis McKelvin are gone, I would probably draft Cason just because we need a guy who we can bank on to start right away. That is if are targeting one of those corners.
     
  8. Honoring Earl 34

    Honoring Earl 34 Hey Koolaid

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    This is projection vs performance .
     


  9. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    Maybe it has to do with what other players are doing or how needs are being perceived. Maybe it is not him slipping but others moving up?
     
  10. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    My trust in Smith and Kubes has effected me to this extent. The signing of Reeves seems to indicate he will have a legitimate shot at starter. I do not think he would have signed here if he thought Texans would spend a first round at his position. The money may be the same but the glory is not. So, if CB is removed from the immediate equation, I'd go with RB unless Vanderbilt's Williams is available at #18. I have frequently said go with the possible franchise RB as no franchise type LT will be at #18. If Stewart (M. being gone by then) and Williams are both there? Man oh man. I first would hope that somebody just a few spots below us did not need a LT or RB and would trade up to get 18 and give us anything extra. I just do not see that. I could probably be talked into changing my mind, again and again, but for right this minute would draft Williams. I think he can be a 12 year player and Stewart about 8 as a starter.
     
  11. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    I'm actually thinking Green Bay might be interested in moving up with us now that Farve is gone. Arron Rodgers is not the answer. Maybe Brohm is there and they want to make sure they get him. Just throwing stuff out there.
     
  12. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    What would the offer be? Do you see CB as major issue now Reeves is aboard? I can't see him signing if he thought CB would be a first round consideration for Texans.
     
  13. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    I don't think Reeves is coming in as a starter. I think he is more of a Von Hutchins type signing. He will compete for the starting job, but he is not cemented as a starter. Even if he wins that role, it will be after the draft, and even considering that, we still need a true #1 CB...even when Daunta returns.

    I don't know what the offer will be, but Green Bay was a playoff team, so their pick is later in the first, and their second rounder could be essentially equal to a third on the value chart. So, possibly a second and like a 3rd next year and a swap of our first rounders this year.
     
  14. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

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    That definitely could be it. But I just think there are some big ?'s with those corners that are getting all the hype now. I guess when it comes down to it the really solid players do go late 1st round and early-mid 2nd round. They may not be the sexiest, or have as high of ceiling but so so many are just really sound football players.


    All I know is that I'd be very very careful spending an early 1st rd pick on a Corner this year.
     
  15. The Pencil Neck

    The Pencil Neck Subscribed Contributor

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    I want to just jump in here... and I don't know anything about any of the college players, so I'm going to ask this question.

    Everyone has us picking LT, RB, or CB (with the S thrown in occasionally.) But is it possible that Keith Rivers the LB is sitting there and would he fit with our team?
     
  16. bah007

    bah007 Hall of Fame

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    I would like to have Keith Rivers, but I done see any way that he falls to 18.
     
  17. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

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    I'd hop all over the Green Bay trade (unless there is a LT available that Gibbs knows will be a pro-bowl franchise type for us).

    Houston #18: 900 points
    Green Bay #30: 620 points
    Green Bay #61ish: 292 points

    So we'd get their 1st and 2nd (roughly 912 points) and they'd receive our 1st (900 points). Their pick may be off a tad because of NE not having 'their' 1st rd pick + Indy and Dallas both had the same record as GB so they may alternate somehow. We may have to give up like a 6th or 7th to make the "points" equal, but then again they may have to pay a "premium" for our pick.

    (*Dream scenario: Draft day trades of (1) Sage Rosenfels to a team like Minnesota for their 2nd round pick; Smith and Kubiak already have a few veteran QB's in mind to sign as FA's but Schaub never gets hurt so it's a moot point anyway and (2) No 'must have players' available for us at #18 but Green Bay HAS to have a certain player. We trade our 1st for their 1st and later 2nd rd picks.

    So we roughly have First day picks of:
    1st Round: Pick #30 (Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona)
    2nd Round: Picks #17 (Anthony Collins, LT, Kansas) and #30 (Matt Forte, RB, Tulane)

    We'd also have our 3rd round picks-on, to play with grabbing some quality offensive lineman (guards and/or tackles), pass rushing defensive end, and whoever else they like.
     
  18. Goldensilence

    Goldensilence hipster elite

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    Agreed. Said it before and i am sure i am looking likea broken record. Guy has Leon Hall last year written all over him. Nitpicked by pundits up to the draft but as the day got there Cinci looked at the Tape, took him, and was rewarded with 5 ints.
     
  19. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    WoW!!!

    This would be a dream senario
     
  20. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    Keith Rivers would be BPA at 18, and he would upgrade any LB position, though he should play outside.
     

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