Picking first - Blessing or curse?

Discussion in 'The National Football League' started by gtexan02, Oct 9, 2006.

  1. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    So reading the Bush thread got me thinking. Is the way the NFL set up really beneficial? The worst team picks first, landing the best rookie available and hopefully building their franchisse around him. But lets look at the numbers:

    1st round picks are averaging insane salaries. They are making nearly 10 million a year, without ever playing a single down of football. And the majority of that is guaranteed money.

    Unless they play as well as a top 5 player at their position, they are being overpaid. And even then sometimes they are being overpaid. Here are the
    averages for the top 5 highest paid players at each position:

    Quarterback $8.789 million $8.327 million
    Defensive end $8.332 million $7.075 million
    Linebacker $7.169 million $6.144 million
    Offensive line $6.983 million $6.391 million
    Wide receiver $6.172 million $5.160 million
    Running back $6.085 million $5.153 million
    Cornerback $5.893 million $4.774 million
    Defensive tackle $5.656 million $4.463 million
    Safety $4.109 million $3.592 million
    Tight end $3.327 million $2.718 million
    Kicker-punter $2.468 million $2.045 million

    So if you draft a player who doesnt produce, you are screwed, as all your salary is tied up and you can't sign good FAs.

    I know it doesn't make sense to have the draft in any other order, but there needs to be a limit imposed on rookie contracts. In my opinion, they are getting completely out of hand. If a rookie WR or Safety is taken first in the draft, they could be the highest paid player at their position without ever even playing a single snap.
     
  2. edo783

    edo783 Site Contributor

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    And so, you have hit on why it's almost impossible to trade out of a top 5 pick. Too much risk and too much impact on your cap.
     
  3. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    hard to call it a curse when you have a chance to add the best player in the draft to your team.
     
  4. mexican_texan

    mexican_texan Furry Tractors

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    Usually, the best players in the draft don't go in the top ten.
     
  5. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    We have drafted pretty crappily over the years:

    2002 -
    Carr, Pitts, Weary, Faggins still here.
    Carr has taken 5 years to develop, Gaffney was a bust, Pitts has been average, Weary has underachieved, and the rest of our 9 picks (except for Faggins) have been useless.

    2003 -
    Johnson, Peek, Davis still here.
    Johnson is our best draft choice yet, Peek has underachieved, Davis has been great but is always hurt and his career may be over. Hollings, Joppru, Wand and the rest of them were flops.

    2004 -
    Robinson, Babin, Earl still here.
    We gave up WAY too much for Babin, an underachiever. Robinson is hit or miss, Earl should be a backup, and the rest aren't even on the team.

    2005 -
    TJ, Brown, Hodgon, Mathis
    TJ is an enigma, Brown should be a backup, Hodgon may not even be serviceable as a backup, mathis is uncoachable and injury prone, Buchannon (our 2nd and 3rd rounder) has been a COMPLETE debacle.

    We have had some tough years building through the draft!
     
  6. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    if you have good scouting and you have the first pick, you should be able to find the best player.
     
  7. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    i'm trying to figure out why some people were bolded and some weren't...
     
  8. mexican_texan

    mexican_texan Furry Tractors

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    If you have good scouting, you shouldn't be picking in the top five.
     


  9. mexican_texan

    mexican_texan Furry Tractors

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    At first I thought it was standouts...then I saw Charles Rogers.
     
  10. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    yeah, I didn't get it either?
     
  11. dtran04

    dtran04 Hall of Fame

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    None of those teams on that list have won a super bowl either. Whether its due to the cap constraints from having a high pick or just simply because they are bad teams is probably a good debate.
     
  12. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    Here is a good indication of the best rookies:
    OROY Awards since 2002:
    Clinton Portis - 2nd round
    Anquan Boldin - 2nd round
    Ben Roethlisberger - 1st round, pick 11
    Carnell Williams - 1st round, pick 5

    DROY
    Julius Peppers - 1st round, pick 2
    Terrell Suggs - 1st round, pick 10
    Jonathan Vilma - 1st round, pick 12
    Shawne Merrimam - 1st round, pick 12

    So out of the last 4 years, 3 of 8 ROYs have been top 10 (1 was #10). None were the #1 pick. Interesting, no?
     
  13. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    plus ferguson is excellent. and ronnie brown. and rivers and smith are doing great this year.
     
  14. mexican_texan

    mexican_texan Furry Tractors

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    Why no rings?

     
  15. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    it's an odd mix-mash mixup of my first and last name.
     
  16. mexican_texan

    mexican_texan Furry Tractors

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    Not in top ten:
    Shawne Merriman
    Lofa Tatupu
    DeMeco Ryans
    HenderStroud
    Jason Taylor
    Jerry Rice
    TO
    Randy Moss
    Steve Smith
    Chad Johnson
    Eric Moulds
    Marvin Harrison
     
  17. Carr Bombed

    Carr Bombed Hall of Fame

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    teams that pick out of the top ten already have some talent

    championship teams are built in the 2nd through 4th or even later rounds....and competent gm can grab a capable player through the 1st or 2nd round, its the teams thats able to grab starters/playmakers through the 3rd through 5th round or later that become the elite teams in this league. thats why I'm excited about this years draft class. the pats and eagles constantly grab good players.....thats why they compete year after year while staying healthy cap wise.

    This league is so tight, you win through coaching and being able to pluck players late.
     
  18. DCSaints_fan

    DCSaints_fan Rookie

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    I would agree that the amount rookies get paid is insane nowadays. Bush became the highest paid back in the league the second he signed his contract, without playing a single down. I would love for him to be the best back in the league but he's nowhere near that good.

    Its worse for rookie QBs who usually don't even start until their their second year. They get paid millions to sit the bench and "learn".

    I think rookie contracts should be similiar to now the NHL and NBA does it. They should be short (no more than 3-4 years), have reasonable base pay and have bonuses if you really do live up to the hype.
     

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