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PFF’s Top 101 of 2014: No. 1, J.J. Watt

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PFF’s Top 101 of 2014: No. 1, J.J. Watt
We’re running out of ways to state just how good J.J. Watt is. In fact, we ran out of ways a while ago and we’re left just repeating it and shaking our heads in wonder. He is so dominant that every time you dig into numbers and create a new set of data you hadn’t looked at before you have to check just where he falls on the scale for the fun of it.

We have created graphs before that Watt has literally broken the scale of. The entire league appears on a perfect bell-curve that peters out into nothing, then a little more nothing, then J.J. Watt, in a data point all of his own off the end of the scale


When Watt came along he didn’t just eclipse the average season-total grade for Justin Smith, he blew it out of the water like he was dropping depth charges on a dinghy. Justin Smith would put together a season with a PFF grade in the 30s, but Watt in 2012 broke out with a grade in the 90s (+94.2). The truly terrifying part is that grade has improved each year since, moving to +99.8, then +107.5 and shows no sign of regressing back to the norm of the human race.

In short, Watt is no longer just an interior force, but a player who now aligns all over the defense, and has become more of an edge defender than he is a defensive tackle.

The bottom line is that JJ Watt is still improving, evolving, and developing into one of the greatest players the game has ever seen. His numbers across the board are ludicrous, posting more combined hits and sacks than Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell and Fletcher Cox combined, for example, and he remains the best player in football, and the top player on the PFF Top 101. Now for a third year running
:swatter::swatter::swatter:
 
So what has JJ Watt become?

watt-alignment.png

(------------- = JJ Watt)​

If you take a look at the above graph (click to enlarge) that shows the distribution of alignments of defensive linemen, you can see that Watt has evolved away from a defensive interior player. Kyle Williams and Calais Campbell represent the close crossover between one-gap 3-4 defensive end (what Watt used to be) and 4-3 pass-rushing (3-tech or ‘under’ tackle). The close proximity of those two lines was one of the reasons PFF has pushed for ID as a position group designation (interior defender) rather than 3-4 end or 4-3 DT, because you can see how close the alignment is between the two in this graph.

At the other end of the scale is Jason Pierre-Paul, a legitimate edge defender in his 4-3 defensive end spot. Pierre-Paul doesn’t spend a lot of time at all in inside alignments and that spike is typical of edge-rushers in the NFL.

JJ Watt occupies a third line, one that matches one player almost exactly – Michael Bennett from Seattle. Those two, despite being labeled as completely different positions and players, are essentially playing the same position when it comes to alignment distribution – an ID/ED hybrid.

Watt and Bennett still spend a lot of snaps inside, but their biggest spike is in the same area as the true edge defenders like Pierre-Paul. What makes Watt even more interesting is that he has the biggest spike of the group in the 9-technique alignment, the widest rush-alignment there is. That spike isn’t just the biggest of this group, but is one of the biggest in the league. Watt spends more time rushing from the wide-9 alignment than many of the players you would immediately think top that list.

In short, Watt is no longer just an interior force, but a player who now aligns all over the defense, and has become more of an edge defender than he is a defensive tackle.

The bottom line is that JJ Watt is still improving, evolving, and developing into one of the greatest players the game has ever seen. His numbers across the board are ludicrous, posting more combined hits and sacks than Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell and Fletcher Cox combined, for example, and he remains the best player in football, and the top player on the PFF Top 101. Now for a third year running.

In the chart if you can't see, O-tech is at the left and 9-tech is to the right...

D-line-alignment-and-gaps-NEW1.png
 
Still not the MVP.
According to the MVP voters
:stooges:
say that ya gotta be a QB for that...
 
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Yeah it make zero since....bunch of political BS the MVP award is.

There's just no way around it, the QB position is the most valuable position in the NFL. That Watt didn't win it in 2014 tells me a defensive player will never win it again. Even if somehow he is more productive in 2015, even if he propels the Texans to the Super Bowl, he's not going to win it.
 
There's just no way around it, the QB position is the most valuable position in the NFL. That Watt didn't win it in 2014 tells me a defensive player will never win it again. Even if somehow he is more productive in 2015, even if he propels the Texans to the Super Bowl, he's not going to win it.

This is a tough call. On the one side, I'm inclined to believe that if he stays dominant for several years in a row, being an MVP candidate every year, he's going to get the vote one of these years just on the basis of cumulative multi season perception. Especially if there is a slow QB year without anyone with ridiculous numbers (hard to expect that, I know).

But on the other hand, if there is a QB every year who does what seems to be routine by now for QBs, people may be compelled to vote for that QB with the argument being that Rodgers/Manning/Brady won it with similar numbers.
 
This is a tough call. On the one side, I'm inclined to believe that if he stays dominant for several years in a row, being an MVP candidate every year, he's going to get the vote one of these years just on the basis of cumulative multi season perception. Especially if there is a slow QB year without anyone with ridiculous numbers (hard to expect that, I know).

I think he would have made it this year if the Texans had made the playoffs. If he has a repeat 20+ sack year next season and the Texans make the playoffs (maybe even without), he gets it.
 
There's just no way around it, the QB position is the most valuable position in the NFL. That Watt didn't win it in 2014 tells me a defensive player will never win it again. Even if somehow he is more productive in 2015, even if he propels the Texans to the Super Bowl, he's not going to win it.

.. just gotta break all QB's he comes across. Win by default.
 
.. just gotta break all QB's he comes across. Win by default.
In all honesty, not having any QB or running back with a better than average season was always a requirement for any defensive player to win it.

It really is a farce.
 
I think they should award a Most Outstanding Player award in addition to the MVP because, to me, they are two different things.
Most Outstanding Player - guy who had the best season, performance wise, independent on how well his team did.
Most Valuable Player - guy most critical to his team's success; i.e., if he wasn't there, and play at the level he did, the team would suck.

 
Have an MVP and an explicit quarterback award, seeing as that's such a uniquely important position to the game, ala baseball with the Cy Young. Name it after Unitas in honor of his progressing the position and have the Unitas and MVP awards. In a year where a qb goes especially bananas he could possibly win both, but this would be incredibly rare. Winners all around.

Also J.J. apparently ended up with the Jupiter Great Red Spot after a block against Buffalo last year ...

CFfQQeSUgAALsy-.jpg:small
 
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