Perhaps the best pattern the Texans are creating: Ball distribution

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by GP, Oct 3, 2006.

  1. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    Walter is getting dissed. He has his own thread. Which means one thing: Carr is going to him, the ball is coming to him, and that has some people worried.

    Walter made two very CLUTCH grabs on long yardage situations to keep the chains moving, one of those late in the game. And if I am not mistaken, a Dolphins receiver (late in the game) dropped an easy pass that probably would have went for a TD. He just dropped it. It was amazing.

    Peyton distributes the ball so much, that the team's receivers say that it's hard to get a look sometimes because of how many different receivers Peyton can logistically "go to" each play...they say that when a ball DOES come their way, it makes them want to do something special with it so that Peyton might choose them more often in the future. In short, it's a "Pick ME! Pick ME!!!" mentality. And that is a very good problem to have. It keeps guys sharp, keeps them fighting, and makes them do more with less. Peyton is the master, and the receivers are dogs looking for a bone or a scrap of meat to fall off the dinner table. It's so brutally beautiful.

    Walter, IMO, is getting bagged on because he's not highlighting it. Wait until he pulls down a TD reception like Owen Daniels did, and then he'll be getting so much love around here.

    Seems like there's a contigency of message board fans here who try to find the "guy who isn't producing highlight reel material" and start doubting why "the guy" is even in the NFL at all. Pretty dadgum hard to get a ball thrown your way, as the No. 3 receiver on the field, when the No. 1 and No. 2 guys are AJ and Moulds.

    And by the way, notice how often Carr went to Moulds at the start of the season. It seemed like an eternity before Carr even THREW the ball toward AJ. And even when AJ caught it, Carr was zipping it back to Moulds. The old Texans fan in me said "HEY! Get the ball to AJ! Now! You gotta' get it to him, bro!" And then he did. Slowly, teams began to key on Moulds and now AJ is building steady momentum recently...and Moulds is making a few grabs here and there. And then there's a TD pass to Breuner. And to Daniels. Two different TEs catching TD passes in Houston...someone call the FBI, please, because I think someone stole our team and replaced it with a more current version of an NFL team. And then you have Walter making two clutch catches on long yardage situations to move the chains. The best thing about what we're seeing is that we are creating team chemistry and not the old "Get it to AJ or we don't have a prayer" mentality that plagued Capers' team and his gameplanning.

    I predict that as the season wears on, and as more teams attempt to stop AJ and Moulds, we will see more plays by Walter. He'll become the beneficiary of being overlooked. And THEN...well, that's when the real fun begins because teams will also start to focus on Walter, which leaves a few TEs on our roster open to also start getting those looks.

    I think we don't even really understand how well Kubiak's system is going to produce. You're going to see a different "stud" each game, sort of like the 90s Cowboys when Aikman could go to Harper or Irvin or Moose or Emmitt or Johnston or Novacek...they had so many different ways to beat defenses, especially near the goalline. It was like "pick your poison," a lot like it is today with the Colts, and to some degree it's like that with the Bengals.

    Lots of different ways to beat a defense that has to commit to one or two star-quality offensive players...and yet there's two or three more out there who can get it done in clutch situations, as well.

    The thing I like the most about what I am seeing in Carr is that from game-to-game he is spreading the ball around. Over time, when upcoming opponents study film, they get the sense that our QB can go to any of those guys...at any time he chooses, if he truly wants to...and that sort of thing begins to wear on a defense because it's like, "Where do we start? Who do we commit to, and then how do we compensate for the guys leftover that we cannot cover?"

    And that's the thing that I think is the best attribute about Denver's style: WRs who can play ball, TEs who can play ball, RBs who can play ball, and a QB who can distribute the ball to the right people at the right time. If we get a running game going, then you best look out.

    Unless the train comes off the tracks, and if Kubiak can keep these guys tuned into his system and believeing in it, we have no clue whatsoever as to how good we can become. Kris Brown will need Tums again.
     
  2. BradK10

    BradK10 Hall of Fame

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    I'm pickin up what you're puttin down, and I'm likin' it
     
  3. Rightnow

    Rightnow Veteran

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    Great post.

    If we can get a running game going our offense will be deadly. I see Carr progressing every week, and I think his teammates are gaining confidence in him. I think he is going from a QB with a lot of potential and talent to a leader.
     
  4. Texan Asylum

    Texan Asylum Christian

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    You must spread some reputation...

    Great post Shafe. I feel the turnaround is in progress. The Texans in the second half of the season won't resemble the team of the first.

    Things are starting to work.:wild:
     
  5. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    OK, well I like your idea, and I can see how you'd be mistaken in thinking we are spreading the ball around, but I'm afraid I simply don't get the point of your post. What do you mean we are spreading the ball around?

    Lets take a look at the reception statistics:
    Johnson - 30
    Moulds - 18
    Cook - 7
    Walter - 5
    Daniels - 5
    Everyone else 4 or less

    Now let me try and explain this. So far, our team has 81 completed passes. That means that AJ counts for nearly 40% of our throws. Similarly, his 410 yards receiving count for nearly 50% of our total passing offense! Moulds is getting the ball a decent amount, but our 3rd WR option an down are averaging just barely over 1 reception per game. Same with our backfield.

    So while you say we are sprading the ball around in the passing game, I say we are focusing on AJ, then slightly less often to Moulds, and then rarely to anyone else.

    As for Walter, you've seen him get 2 first downs, I've seen:
    -Costly holding penalty
    -Almost lost a fumble
    -Drop a pass

    I don't think he's doing badly, because he isn't getting looked at often, but I do think that he was overhyped coming in.
     
  6. run-david-run

    run-david-run Hall of Fame

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    That dosnt tell the whole story though. Touchdown wise it goes: AJ-2, Bruner-2, Daniels-2, Moulds-1. Also, Walter played very little the first two games and the Miami game was the first where he made a real impact. Also, if teams cant stop us getting AJ the ball, we shouldnt be spreading it around. Throw it to him every down until they prove they can stop him, 3 out of 4 100 yard receiving games tells me they other D's dont know how to stop him right now.
     
  7. Texanfan4ever

    Texanfan4ever All Pro

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    I like the fact that we have someone, several someone's , that they need to stop. We haven't really had that luxury for sometime now.
     
  8. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    I knew it wouldn't take long before someone actually pulled in the stats.

    In my observation, I don't take into account the stats.

    I go by what I see on the field, and what I see is this:

    Last year = One "real" wide receiver (AJ) and two guys who are not even on an NFL team today. Result? Only one "real" threat that other teams' defense could shut down and the passing game was controlled, allowing the blitz on Carr to completely nullify any playcalling whatsoever. Go and find me a set of stats on that, OK?

    This year = Four games where Carr can feel confident enough in his three receivers that he can release the ball with more accuracy than last season. Result? Look at the body language (any stat you can find on this one, as well?) of AJ last season when he generaly looked as if he were going to puke on every 3-and-out compared to now where he is stoked and amped up at the line of scrimmage...and Moulds cannot let his guard down, either, because Carr is tossing him some passes after several completions to AJ on the previous plays. Nobody can REST at the line of scrimmage with the idea that "Pffftt...I'm not gettin' the ball this play just like I didn't get the ball the last 15 plays...."

    Don't confuse my post with the idea that we're going to the playoffs and gonna' run the board the rest of the season. I still think we're an 8-8 team at best. But I like the body language on the field by all of our players. It resembles a crew of guys who "might" be getting some confidence that things are going to be OK. We didn't sense that in the first 3 games this year, we sensed an atmosphere of doubt and uncertainty--A dark cloud hangover from last season that caused players to say "Here we go again" when things didn't click and the otherteam would begin pulling away from us.

    Ponder this: Kubiak leaves Denver. Some said that Kubiak was a puppet and that Shanahan was really the Wizard of Oz in Denver...the guy who pulled the switches and made sure things ran correctly. But riddle me this: Is that the same Denver team this year, overall in a general sense, that it was with Kubiak at the controls of the offense? Looks slightly sluggish, looks less dynamic, and Plummer is gettig off to a slow start with one game where they won by field goals. Just something to stir the pot a little.
     
  9. TexanFanInCC

    TexanFanInCC Hall of Fame

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    and the encouraging thing is that we have really done some good things against defenses that arent necessarily pushovers.
     
  10. infantrycak

    infantrycak Mod. Staff Member

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    That only means something in comparison to a reference point. Peyton is known as one of the best ball distributers out there.

    Carr--passes to 12 different players (4 WR's, 3 TE's + 1 FB and 4 RB's)
    Indy--passes to 9 different players (4 WR's, 3 TE's and 2 RB's)

    Carr--passes to top 2 WR's--59%
    Manning--passes to top 2 WR's--56%
    Carr--passes to TE's + FB--21%
    Manning--passes to TE's--23%
    Carr--passes to RB's--11%
    Manning--passes to RB's--18%

    You can't just say 40% is a big chunk say he isn't distributing the ball.
     
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  11. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    I didn't have time to read this whole post, but I thought I'd defend what I think you are arguing against (if that even makes sense lol).

    Anyway, last year Carr's options were not nearly as limited as you claim.
    #1 - DD has and always will be a great receiving back, and has been one of Carr's all time favorite targets
    #2 - Gaffney stepped in nicely while AJ was hurt. He didn't play at all when AJ was 1, but when AJ was out, Gaffney did pretty well.
    #3 - AJ's production last year wasn't necessarily because he was the only option, it had a lot to do with his injury in my opinion.

    So basically, while I definitely agree that Carr is spreading the ball around a LOT more this year than last, I think it is because he now has 2 WRs he can throw to. Daniels seems like he's hit or miss in the passing game, AJ and Moulds have been stellar, and everyone else is almost non-existent.
     
  12. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    I agree with this statement. The only counter point I have is that Stokely has ben injured for a significant amount of the season, and if he was playing, he'd take a lot of catches away from both Wayne and Harrison. When he's in, Manning looks his way.


    PS: I hope no one things that I am complaining about his ball distribution, by the way. I think AJ should get at least ~50% of the looks, then Moulds ~30%, and everyon else can split the remaining 20. (Which, by coincidence, it looks like). I just wanted to make the point that I think a QB who really distributes the ball (Like McNabb) is slightly different from a QB who has a clear cut #1 receiver, #2 receiver, TE, rest of team in that order like the Texans do.
     
  13. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    I agree with No. 1.

    I whole-heartedly disagree with No. 2. He was not nearly as good as you're portraying him to be. In fact, nobody was good at all (including AJ) at any point last season. But to say that Gaffney "filled in nicely" is stretching it, IMO.

    I sorta' agree with No. 3...but I think we saw too much of AJ getting doubled at the line of scrimmage and really getting jammed by those guys to prevent any seperation from occurring. I would say that AJ's injury was 50% of the problem with AJ.
     
  14. El Tejano

    El Tejano Hall of Fame

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    I agree here. We don't have a running game right now and we all have been longing for that gamebreaker to show up on our team. It may very well be that the leader Kubes has been looking for is right now wearing #80!!!!
     
  15. taxman

    taxman Rookie

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    Let's get it right boys, 3 catches, and 3 first downs from the last game.
     
  16. Doug

    Doug All Pro

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    It seems like just yesterday people were griping about not having a solid #2 receiver to take some pressure off of AJ. Now we have a solid #2 that is doing exactly as he should and everyone is benefiting from it, especially AJ. Now I'm seeing people gripe about our #3. Goodness, what a vicious cycle.
     
  17. bad

    bad Veteran

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    Thank you. :jam:

    Stats give me a tummy ache.
     
  18. Bearfan Blue and Orange

    Bearfan Blue and Orange Veteran

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    It is hard to pass any judgement yet when he has not had much playing time. I know when the Oline can protect Carr longer and a running game gets established and 3 WR sets are used more, you will see what he can do.
     
  19. Doug

    Doug All Pro

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    Why did you quote me with that post?
     
  20. TexansSeminole

    TexansSeminole Hall of Fame

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    That slot guy has to be productive and clutch on 3rd down. That's why Teddy Ginn is such a good prospect IMO. Hopefully Walter can produce there this year. I still think we need to draft another WR.
     

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