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OptimisticTexan Mock'n & Trade'n 1.0

OptimisticTexan

OptimisticTexan

2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
Ok, this idea is going to throw some folks but if I were building for the future...with this season in mind but looking to 2018 & 2019 as well, then here's my moves and Mock:

1.Clowney will be entering the final season of his rookie contract after 2018. Another season like this and his injury history goes into the past and he's going to want JJ Watt type of money unless the market dictates higher. With Watt returning this season, would the team regress without Clowney? IMHO, this defense is probably a safe bet to be as special as they were in 2016. At the moment, Clowney has outstanding market value because he's affordable for 2 seasons. If we trade him, what could we expect. As much as I would like the extra picks...I would be on the phone with the Browns, why? Browns have something I want and the Browns are desperate to build a defense beginning with DE's.

First, I have to paint the picture for their GM. Draft Miles Garrett and bookend him Clowney. They instantly have a better than decent DL. Second, what do the Texans get? Like I said, they have something I need...OT / Joe Thomas and the their RD5-01 pick.

Texans instantly have an OL and it would look something like this:
LT- Thomas
LG- Martin
OC- Mancz
RG- Su'a-Filo
RT- Brown
Right side is no longer the weak link but in fact the left side moved over. Thomas is a better LT and allows Brown to become an outstanding RT. Martin will go left and Su'a-Filo will continue to work with Brown. Mancz actually did much better than expected at C and with another season and better line-mates he's going to get even better. The biggest question here would be building the depth chart around this unit.

2. I'm wincing as I type this but Hopkins is going to get traded before he has a chance to test the FA Market with the Texans. This man wants to get paid and he wants to get paid...like last season. He's going to hit the cap hard if he gets what he wants and personally, I'm not sure the Texans are going to be willing to pay him like that. If they franchise tag him for the 2018 season, he's getting paid but it's for 1 season. He played in a funk last season and I'm not expecting a whole lot more if he doesn't get a new contract. This will wind up being too big of a distraction. Get him on the market while he's still got big value. The Texans will get a 2017 RD2 & RD4 plus a 2018 RD3. I think there would be several teams interested but my best guess could be Philly, Vikings and GB. For the sake of this scenario, Philly's offer and draft position will offer the best return not to mention, they get a weapon for Wentz that he/they've desired.

Why will the Texans survive this move? They went hard and heavy on receivers last season and have some very good talent still in the group. Most folks were fairly certain the sky was falling when Hopkins replaced AJ but the team survived the move. The receivers can be even better when the QB is going to be forced to spread the ball around more, and with a revamped OL they could be in for a pretty decent season.

3. Re-sign Bouye, the money will be there.

4. Texans will have the cap space to sign some of their FA in 2018 & 2019 and look at Fa's as well.

So, I gained:
LT - Joe Thomas
2017 RD5-01 (CLE)
2017 RD2-11 (PHI)
2017 RD4-12 (PHI)
2018 RD3-?? (PHI)

Texans Lose:
DE - Clowney
WR - Hopkins
2017 RD3-25

Mock 1.0
RD1-25-025: Taco Charleton / Michigan / DE / 6'-6" @ 273 lbs / This guy could answer the loss of Clowney from Day 1. He's going to be an impact while working with Watt.

RD2-11-043: (Eagles) D'Ondre Foreman / Texas / RB / 6'-1" @ 249 lbs / Solid and potentially "the" answer at RB. He allows Miller to shed a little weight and go back to be the type of runner he was in Miami. This guy has some pretty nice open field speed.

RD2-25-057: Chidobe Awuzie / Colorado / CB / 6'-0" @ 205 lbs / Has shut-down CB abilities. This pick allows KJax to be moved to FS. Getting KJax to FS has been something I've wanted for the past 3 maybe 4 seasons or ever since I realized he couldn't play with his back to the play.

RD3-01-065: Jake Butt / Michigan / TE / 6'-5" @ 250 lbs / I projected him later but he should be worth the higher pick. Definitely answers the teams need at TE.

RD4-12-117: (Eagles) Chad Wheeler / Michigan / OT / 6'-6" @ 310 lbs / OT in training. Would become very good working behind Thomas and/or Brown.

RD4-24-129: Josh Harvey-Clemons / Louisville / SS / 6'-4" @ 225 lbs / Fills a need for big SS who can cover and big enough to fill hybrid ILB roll.

RD5-01-147: (Browns) Kenny Golladay / Northern Illinois / WR / 6'-4" @ 215 lbs / Doesn't have to be the answer to Hopkins right out of the gate but could be a huge addition to the WR group.

RD5-25-171: Vince Biegle / OLB / Wisconsin / 6'-3" @ 242 lbs / Solid OLB who knows this position. Another solid Wisconsin product who should benefit greatly with the next level coaching.

RD6-04-189: David Jones / Richmond / FS / 6'-3" @ 210 lbs / Injured, but has the tools to be a steal this late.

RD7-25-246: Josh Topou / Colorado / DT / 6'-3" @ 362 lbs / Big body DT who excels at clogging the middle. Could be interesting to see his changes if he developed more strength while dropping his weight to around 335 lbs.
 
Step away from the mango.

Joe Thomas is 32. If you want rid of Clowney better to get picks and draft the next Joe Thomas rather than take on the tail end of theirs.

Hopkins' value better be higher than that or you don't even think about. That's not the value of his original pick even and now he's proven.

Don't think you are giving due consideration to age in either case.

How many 250 lb franchise RBs have there been? Not many.
 
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Just to single out one thing, but could say more, if we are going to get rid of Hopkins, there better be a young QB involved.
 
Chad Wheeler: In 2015 he was punching walls in an off campus apartment. after a scuffle with police he had psych eval done. Also was found to be under influence of some substance don't remember what or if identified to public. His girlfriend and their infant child was in apartment. He had two concussions in 2015 and knee surgery. Not sure if Texans would draft him but I would not.

I do not see Texans moving Hopkins, Clowney or Watt this season.
 
infantrycak said:
Step away from the mango.

Joe Thomas is 32. If you want rid of Clowney better to get picks and draft the next Joe Thomas rather than take on the tail end of theirs.

Hopkins' value better be higher than that or you don't even think about. That's not the value of his original pick even and now he's proven.

Don't think you are giving due consideration to age in either case.

How many 250 lb franchise RBs have there been? Not many.
Click to expand...

Joe Thomas instantly makes this OL much-much better playing LT even at 32. Brown needs a break from LT and finishing his career at RT could be a solid move. Clowney just had his best season...if I remember right, most folks labeled him a complete bust the last 2 seasons. I would like to see him and Watt play at the same time, for a full season but if I had a chance to get one of the best LT's in the game for another 2 years (years on his current contract) I would rather take a chance on Thomas being Thomas at LT than Clowney remaining healthy for another 2 seasons. Just my call on this.

Hopkins just came off a below standard season and now he's heading into his contract season. He wants a new contract and if RS doesn't get this done, it wouldn't surprise me if Hopkins holds out. This past season, it wasn't just a down year catch/yards wise it was every aspect of his game took a dip. Sure, I'm going to lay some blame at Osweiler's feet but like I said, it was the other aspects of his game that took a dip as well.

As for Foreman, don't be surprised to see this guy pop a 4.4 on the guns. Watch some of his highlights, he can pull away from defenders similar to Fournett. He's not carrying 249 lbs in a bad way...he's pretty stout. McShay is predicting Foreman is going to go up the boards but I had him higher out of the gate.

All this leads up to some healthy cap space moving forward...something the Teans haven't enjoyed in a while. By the way, I've got 2 QB's in mind for the 2018 Draft; Mason Rudolph / Oklahoma State and Brett Rypien / Boise State. If these guys have strong 2017 campaigns, they're both going to be tough to ignore.
 
Insideop said:
All those picks and you didn't take a QB! Are you assuming we get Romo?
Click to expand...

No, I'm actually assuming that the Texans will live with the choice(s) that O'Brien (RD4- Savage), McNair & RS (FA- Osweiler) and RS (FA- Weeden) have already made. This group is in the book for 2017 with no financial commitments beyond this upcoming season. If a rookie QB must be added, just know in advance that it'll be 2020 before the team can expect any reasonable production/return out of this new QB...that's provided Mahomes falls to us and in all reality, after the Combine he'll be long gone before the Texans pick in RD1. I'm thinking RT will be the RD1 priority being there is an immediate need and the probability that he would be fully utilized in 2017 instead of learning the system and his position.

QB goes on my list if the Texans can find an extra pick or two and even then it's going to be beyond RD4. Got other areas to fill and need player's who are going to be year one contributors. Also, this QB must survive a season on the PS without being claimed by another team looking for a great bargain. If I get the extra pick...Chad Kelly, Ole Miss is probably the guy I would roll the dice on. He had a very impressive 2015 and could fall as far back as RD6 due to some mistakes off the field and his injury late in 2016.
 
Insideop said:
All those picks and you didn't take a QB! Are you assuming we get Romo?
Click to expand...

No, I'm actually assuming that the Texans will live with the choice(s) that O'Brien (RD4- Savage), McNair & RS (FA- Osweiler) and RS (FA- Weeden) have already made. This group is in the book for 2017 with no financial commitments beyond this upcoming season. If a rookie QB must be added, just know in advance that it'll be 2020 before the team can expect any reasonable production/return out of this new QB...that's provided Mahomes falls to us and in all reality, after the Combine he'll be long gone before the Texans pick in RD1. I'm thinking RT will be the RD1 priority being there is an immediate need and the probability that he would be fully utilized in 2017 instead of learning the system and his position.

QB goes on my list if the Texans can find an extra pick or two and even then it's going to be beyond RD4. Got other areas to fill and need player's who are going to be year one contributors. Also, this QB must survive a season on the PS without being claimed by another team looking for a great bargain. If I get the extra pick...Chad Kelly, Ole Miss is probably the guy I would roll the dice on. He had a very impressive 2015 and could fall as far back as RD6 due to some mistakes off the field and his injury late in 2016.
 
steelbtexan said:
Not a rule, but most likely to happen, especially in this QB class.
Click to expand...

Right, so not a rule and so not to just be expected as written there.

And if the right QB is taken 2018 or '19 could just as well be the timeframe for a reasonable return on the pick.
 
When did Texans stop drafting QB's? Savage under O'Brian, Yates Kubiak, Casserly Ragone/Henson. Seems preferred Strategy at least during Rick Smith tenure has been via free agency, Schwab & Osweiler.

There in lies the problem.
 
Mollywhopper said:
Right, so not a rule and so not to just be expected as written there.

And if the right QB is taken 2018 or '19 could just as well be the timeframe for a reasonable return on the pick.
Click to expand...

Yep,

Unless it's Darnold or maybe Rosen. Those guys seem to have a better understanding of pro offenses than any of the QB's coming out this yr. I'm not saying this yrs class cant be successful, for instance I think Mahomes is as talented as any QB in college football, but it will take him a couple of yrs to adjust to a pro offense and NFL defenses, like most rookie QB's.
 
steelbtexan said:
Yep,

Unless it's Darnold or maybe Rosen. Those guys seem to have a better understanding of pro offenses than any of the QB's coming out this yr. I'm not saying this yrs class cant be successful, for instance I think Mahomes is as talented as any QB in college football, but it will take him a couple of yrs to adjust to a pro offense and NFL defenses, like most rookie QB's.
Click to expand...

Do you get the sense, in regards to addressing QB via draft, there will be a couple prospects graded out here that fit in O' Brian's system, but this time around not be as complacent (wait for QB to come to them) & trade up to get him (not exactly panic mode, but yea, giving recent history exactly what it is)?
 
beerlover said:
Do you get the sense, in regards to addressing QB via draft, there will be a couple prospects graded out here that fit in O' Brian's system, but this time around not be as complacent (wait for QB to come to them) & trade up to get him (not exactly panic mode, but yea, giving recent history exactly what it is)?
Click to expand...

I think this is to be decided by which QB's look really good at the combine. If A QB looks really good I could see this happening. Somebody like Mahomes or Webb (Who I consider to be the best fits in BOB's system) fall to early in the 2nd I could definitely see trading up.

I could also see BOB wanting a guy and wanting Ricky McNair to trade up to get him and Ricky telling him no. (I wouldn't put it past Ricky to stab/sabotage his HC. It's happened before.)

If a BOB guy falls I wouldn't have a problem trading a 2nd and a 2018 1st to get a guy like Mahomes who I think can become a franchise QB. Franchise QB's are worth this kind of trade.
 
steelbtexan said:
I think this is to be decided by which QB's look really good at the combine. If A QB looks really good I could see this happening. Somebody like Mahomes or Webb (Who I consider to be the best fits in BOB's system) fall to early in the 2nd I could definitely see trading up.

I could also see BOB wanting a guy and wanting Ricky McNair to trade up to get him and Ricky telling him no. (I wouldn't put it past Ricky to stab/sabotage his HC. It's happened before.)

If a BOB guy falls I wouldn't have a problem trading a 2nd and a 2018 1st to get a guy like Mahomes who I think can become a franchise QB. Franchise QB's are worth this kind of trade.
Click to expand...

Why do you think Mahomes and Webb are the best fit for BOB's system?
 
steelbtexan said:
Accuracy, Some shorts area mobility for Webb, more for Mahomes, Big arms
Click to expand...
where are these guys on smarts? O'Brien's offense is complex and relies on the QB to make reads/adjustments at the LoS. Did either of these guys come from a system that let them call audibles?

O'Brien wanted Fitzpatrick because he (O'Brien) thought he was smart enough to make the right calls/adjustments at the line. Agree that accuracy is important but arm strength is secondary, behind smarts, in this offense.
 
ObsiWan said:
where are these guys on smarts? O'Brien's offense is complex and relies on the QB to make reads/adjustments at the LoS. Did either of these guys come from a system that let them call audibles?

O'Brien wanted Fitzpatrick because he (O'Brien) thought he was smart enough to make the right calls/adjustments at the line. Agree that accuracy is important but arm strength is secondary, behind smarts, in this offense.
Click to expand...

Webb is a coaches son,

Mahomes is a former MLB pitchers son and I read somewhere he was academic all Big 12

Both are air raid QB's so they didn't make calls at the LOS.
 
steelbtexan said:
Webb is a coaches son,

Mahomes is a former MLB pitchers son and I read somewhere he was academic all Big 12

Both are air raid QB's so they didn't make calls at the LOS.
Click to expand...
The bolded bothers me. O'Brien wants smarts at the line of scrimmage; the smarts to recognize coverages and make the right calls. If these guys didn't even do it in college, how long will it take them to learn how to do it in the NFL??

And if a guy doesn't have the background to seriously push Osweiler for the starters job then I'm not spending a 1st rd pick on him. Now if they can be had in the 2nd (preferably the 3rd) then I'm interested.
 
ObsiWan said:
The bolded bothers me. O'Brien wants smarts at the line of scrimmage; the smarts to recognize coverages and make the right calls. If these guys didn't even do it in college, how long will it take them to learn how to do it in the NFL??

And if a guy doesn't have the background to seriously push Osweiler for the starters job then I'm not spending a 1st rd pick on him. Now if they can be had in the 2nd (preferably the 3rd) then I'm interested.
Click to expand...

Agreed

I think that's what will happen, I think Mahommes will be gone late 1st/mid 2nd so if you want him a trade up will have to happen. Webb will probably be there in the late 2nd/early 3rd. (Just me speculating)
 
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