Offense vs. Defense Talent

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Texans Horror, Jul 2, 2007.

  1. Texans Horror

    Texans Horror Hall of Fame

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    A misleading thread title, but just for grins, I thought I would put to test the theory that the Texans have more drafted talent starting on defense than on offense.

    I bifurcated the team into offense and defense, then I looked at starting material only. I came up with 6 players on offense who were drafted by the Texans, and 7 players on defense who were drafted by the Texans. The only two '07 draft picks I have included are Jones and Okoye. I didn't want to assume that Harrison/Bennett/Frye would be starting this year, though I think they will challenge in position battles.

    For any ifs, ands, or buts, I referred to the latest Texans depth charts. What this means is that TJ and Babin were not included in this exercise because they aren't listed as starters. Obviously, since I am using Texans drafts as source material, I'm not considering the Ron Daynes and Anthony Madduxes.

    For my very simple math, I used the law of averages. Added up the rounds, then divided by the number of players to get the "average" round selection.

    Offense:

    WR1 – AJ, #3 pick overall
    WR3 – Jacoby Jones, 3rd round
    TE – Owen Daniels, 5th round
    LG – Chester Pitts, 2nd round
    RG – Fred Weary, 3rd round
    RT – Eric Winston, 3rd round

    Average: 2.8, or a late second round pick

    Defense:

    DE – Mario Williams, #1 pick overall
    DT – Okoye, 10th pick overall
    Mike – Demeco Ryans, 2nd round
    CB – Dunta Robinson, 10th pick overall
    CB – Faggins, 6th round
    SS – Glenn Earl, 4th round
    FS – CC Brown, 6th round

    Average: 3

    Results: the offense has a higher drafted talent than the defense. I thought it would go the other way.

    Flaws: Okay, obviously the assumption for this is that talent is where talent was. A 3rd rounder is not as talented as a 2nd rounder. You could make the argument that Demeco was clearly a first-round tier talent, but I was trying to be as objective as possible, so I had to go with an assumption or two. Also, I put Jacoby in as the #3 receiver, but not listed as a starting receiver on the depth chart. I also could have gone straight down the Texans draft picks, but that would have only shown where the Texans drafted and not where the talent is, which I is what I was really after. Besides, it would have included a lot of seventh rounders who never panned out.

    Conclusion: In the end, the talent levels out. I think where the Defense stands out is that the Texans have three guys who were the #10 pick or higher. On offense, only AJ was drafted so high.
     
  2. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    I would probably use the median value as opposed to using the mean. SInce the median reflects a true "average" a little better than the mean in this cae.

    IE
    Offense:

    WR1 – AJ, #3 pick overall
    WR3 – Jacoby Jones, 3rd round
    TE – Owen Daniels, 5th round
    LG – Chester Pitts, 2nd round
    RG – Fred Weary, 3rd round
    RT – Eric Winston, 3rd round

    = median of 3rd round


    Defense:

    DE – Mario Williams, #1 pick overall
    DT – Okoye, 10th pick overall
    Mike – Demeco Ryans, 2nd round
    CB – Dunta Robinson, 10th pick overall
    CB – Faggins, 6th round
    SS – Glenn Earl, 4th round
    FS – CC Brown, 6th round

    =median 2nd round

    Thus it would appear that the Defense has a higher grade than offense. And that makes sense when you have 3 high first rounders and a high 2nd. Of course draft grade doesnt matter, its how you perform on the field. Ask Colston how a 7th rounder is "supposed" to play.
     
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  3. Runner

    Runner Hubcap Diamond Staff Member

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    I'll take the manipulation of the numbers any way that makes the defense come out on top. I think they will really rock a few games this year.
     
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  4. V Man

    V Man Pumpkinhead

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    If you have a TE (Daniels) and still list Jones as WR3. You should add Babin to the list as a DE3. Both could and would be considered passing down players.
     
  5. Texans Horror

    Texans Horror Hall of Fame

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    Median has merits. I won't argue median/mean - the sample size is too small. But I do think mean works here.

    Very interesting, though, is how lopsided the defense is (front seven vs. defensive secondary). Seeing how they were drafted only made me feel like some serious draft picking could go on there.

    On the other hand, the Texans have a decently-drafted o-line, IMO, when you consider that most of the guys they brought in were in the second and third round.
     
  6. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    Yeah, the reason i went after median was just as you suggested, the lopsidenedness of the front 7 vs secondary. I spent some time thinking about it, and it makes sense in my mind. For years NE owned Peyton. If you look at how the Pats beat him, it is clear that they are harasing him with Dline and LB pressure. They put pressure on him which makes him unable to get comfortable. This upsets his precise routes with his receivers. The reason NE lost to Peyton last year was that their Dline and LB core couldnt put enough pressure up front.

    When given time a great QB like peyton will pcik you apart. Heck, we saw what a plenty of time did for the redskins. I mean we made Mark brunell look like the second coming of Dan Marino. Even the best DB can only cover for so long. Plus a strong Dline/LB core helps with the running game. Thus it makes sense to build inside out and thats what the Texans seem to be doing, and I like it,
     
  7. Texans Horror

    Texans Horror Hall of Fame

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    I like the plan, too. It's certainly not flashy or sexy, but I think the Texans have come a long way on defense, and it's due to taking defensive linemen early. These guys won't just be good this year - they'll be great for years to come.
     
  8. TK_Gamer

    TK_Gamer Hall of Fame

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    it makes alot of sense, look what Tamp Bay did with very little offense and a strong defense. if you stop the other team from scoring it's alot easier to stay in the game. It's not very sexy, but it works. I personally prefer the more balanced approach, everyone loves to see touchdowns once in a while. But hey, winning 10-6 is still winning. Plus we will get to see lots of hitting! and Mario and Amobe terrorizing quarterbacks!.
     


  9. texansturningthecorner

    texansturningthecorner Rookie

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    dont forget about travis and jason both first rounders on def.
     
  10. Historyhorn

    Historyhorn Veteran

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    I'm comfy with the D getting more love in the early part of the draft for right now. If we build that unit into a force, then we can address offensive positions such as WR and RB.

    Plus, you need to figure in the new QB cost either two high seconds or a mid-round first (using the points chart).

    If the D-line plays well and Schaub plays well, those will be a huge step towards building a consistent winner. Then the key is to stay patient and not get too aggressive trying to "win now". Keep building. It might not be glamorous, but it'll be effective.

    Go Texans
     
  11. Texans Horror

    Texans Horror Hall of Fame

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    Y'all must have missed this part of the original post:

    I was only looking at starting talent that had been drafted by the Texans, which excluded Matt, TJ, and Babin, and I was looking to the current depth chart for my starters.
     
  12. TK_Gamer

    TK_Gamer Hall of Fame

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    I think the biggest problem with gauging talent on the Texans is the tendency to grade by comparison to ourselves. we definately have alot of standout talent relative to our team, but until we convert that into wins I still have to say we are a 20ish overall team with only a few stars (AJ, DROB, Ryans). Let's hope this is the year we show everyone we are better than 20ish.
     
  13. Historyhorn

    Historyhorn Veteran

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    I think the fact that you are only looking at starters defeats the entire purpose of the exercise. If you're looking at what picks were spent on which side of the ball, then it is incumbent to view all of them (the busts and the hits) because it tells a truer picture of what the franchise has invested on each side.

    This comparison of draft rank for only the starters is a testament only to the bad drafting of this franchise under CC. Aside from that, the exercise holds no water.

    Go Texans
     
  14. carter08

    carter08 truth.

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    on offense, what have Winston and Jones done
    jones will be a crucial part of the offense
    that worries me.
    winston is from the U
    so is AJ, so he has to be good.
    daniels has the most potential of anyone of offense
    not saying he's the best
    but AJ is closer to maximizing his talent

    look at the defense
    okoye is a toss up
    we haven't seen Mario healthy
    and the db's are weak
    aside from dunta, what is there
    cc is good. faggins and earl don't need to be starting
    demeco is a future hof'er.
     
  15. Texans Horror

    Texans Horror Hall of Fame

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    How did I defeat the purpose of my own exercise? I'm looking at the starters on offense and defense, and seeing where the talent lies - where they were drafted. As I said earlier, I was never looking for a blanket view of how many picks were spent on either side of the ball.

    I included two of the six guys Rick Smith drafted. Unfortunately, Rick doesn't have much of a draft history in Houston since this was his first draft. So speaking of holding no water, saying that looking at starters is a "testament to the bad drafting of this franchise under CC" only is a load of bull. Just about any way you look at Houston's draft picks, you're going to have to include the guys Cass drafted, unless of course you are looking at the last draft only, and there's not a whole lot to say about those guys since they haven't played in the NFL yet.

    ...season can't start fast enough...
     

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