MY offseason...Ditch the 3-4???

[WildBlackBear32]

I'm gonna catch a lot of flak for this but I'll give'er a go anyway...

I don't think I'm alone when I say this, but the 3-4 sure as hell isn't working for us. Getting 4 sacks total and 2 from your linebackers and basically no pressure from what I gather, just doesnt cut it.

Doing a quick look at the "better" defenses in the league, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Indy, Carolina(whose sack totals are pretty low this year though, since Jenkins has gone down and JPep has at LEAST two guys on him every play), Cincinatti, Chicago etc etc etc...all run the 4-3 and get constant pressure on the QB. All of these teams, with the exception of Carolina, -1, has a positive turnover margin(this goes without mentioning we havent force ONE(1)(uno) turnover all year...).

Now I know we have been building on the 3-4 since the beginning, but I really, really, think it's time to scrap it. Going into this season, we had put a lot of faith in our LBs, specifically Babin and Peek. This obviously was false faith since they have been less than spectacular. The D-Line has been suprisingly solid this season as Payne and Smith have looked good. I'm hoping TJ can live up to the hype as well, if so, we'll have a solid line for another few years.

On to the offseason. This years draft has two physical freaks at DE. Mario Williams and my boy Matthi Kiwi both have the physical tools and speed to become great players in the league. Both guys have the talent to be top 10 players in the draft next years. Given our projected draft position in the top 3, we'd certainly get our pick of the litter. However, I say trade down to about 7-8ish with say the Jets(who I think will fall to that range) or Detroit. Both teams I feel would have interest in Leinart and the Jets would probably be interested in Bush given Martin is getting up there. A deal like this could probably also get us another 2nd rounder and maybe a 4-5th rounder as well.

That gives us...

#7-8
#33-35
#40-42
2 3rd Rounders
Maybe 2 4ths or 5ths.

We can package the 2 second rounders or a 2nd rounder and the 2 3rds and ship it to Denver for one of their 1st rounders, depending on the value chart and such.

Now we are looking at...

7-8
15-20
2 3rd rounders

or

7-8
15-20
40-42

Given these two scenarios my draft looks like...

1. Mario Williams/Matthi Kiwi
1. Macneil/Scott/Trueblood
3. Dom Byrd(USC TE)
3. Thomas Howard(UTEP OLB)
4. Patrick Ross/Ryan Cook (both Centers)
4. Manese Hapoi (UW DT)

or

1. Mario/Kiwi
1. Macneil/Scott/Trueblood
2. Leonard Pope (UGA TE)
4. Patrick Ross/Ryan Cook (both Centers)
4. Manese Hapoi (UW DT)


The defensive front 7 now looks like(take it easy on me, I'm not too familiar with moving guys around in schemes...)

Mario/Kiwi - TJ - Payne - Smith
===Depth=== Babin(projected to DE, similar to Suggs?), Hapoi, Walker, Ioane as the rotational fatboys.

Peek - Greenwood - Wong
===Depth=== Howard, Anderson, Polk, couple FAs.

There ya go boys and gals. Whack away.

 

[Fldvldog]

I'm suprise I don't see D'Brickashaw up there. He should also be a priority tackle to pick up. I know that the Jags would love to have him right now...

 

[WildBlackBear32]

I'm suprise I don't see D'Brickashaw up there. He should also be a priority tackle to pick up...

I don't have him falling to 15-20.

 

[ledzeppelin229]

M. Kiwanuka has great size and athleticism, as well as the mental make up. Last time I saw him play, his tackling needed some work but he is a physical freak. However, if we have a pick that high and have a chance for D'Brickashaw, and we are convinced he is in the Pace-Boselli mode, I don't think we have any choice but to take him. I would rather get that franchise LT than get a DE simply because we decide we need a 4-3 instead.

 

[WildBlackBear32]

M. Kiwanuka has great size and athleticism, as well as the mental make up. Last time I saw him play, his tackling needed some work but he is a physical freak. However, if we have a pick that high and have a chance for D'Brickashaw, and we are convinced he is in the Pace-Boselli mode, I don't think we have any choice but to take him. I would rather get that franchise LT than get a DE simply because we decide we need a 4-3 instead.

Given my situation we are getting a Franchise LT. Thats what Scott(really like him), Macneil(guy blocked for 3 first rounders last year, says something) and Trueblood are. This years Tackle crop is so deep you could probably get an anchor in the mid 2nd round. However, at DE you got those two freaks then not much after that.

 

[rmartin65]

how about a 4-4?
the Texans draft kiwi, and it looks like this

DRob Kiwi-TJ-Payne-Smith Pbuc

Peek-Wong-Greenwood-Babin

Coleman
2nd string looks like this

Petey Walker-Ioane-Deloach-Anderson Bell

Pettway-Evans-Polk-Drafted guy
Brown
theTexans if they are top 3 trade down to 8th or something. There they grab kiwi. They package a 3rd and they 2nd they probably get for the trade and move back into the 1st. there they grab a LT. then in the 2nd they get a good passrushing OLB. he moves into 2nd string OLB.

 

[Bubbajwp]

If we traded back to 7-8 and pick up a 2nd round to I would do somthing like this.
If possible trade back a little further and still get one of these LT and add more picks.
RD1 - Best LT left on board Dbrick, E Winston, J Scott, M Mcneil
RD1 - AJ Hawk or Chad Greenway,
RD2 - BPA out of Dline, Te, C, RG, CB if Pbuch continues to play bad.

 

[WildBlackBear32]

how about a 4-4?
the Texans draft kiwi, and it looks like this

DRob Kiwi-TJ-Payne-Smith Pbuc

Peek-Wong-Greenwood-Babin

Coleman
2nd string looks like this

Petey Walker-Ioane-Deloach-Anderson Bell

Pettway-Evans-Polk-Drafted guy
Brown
theTexans if they are top 3 trade down to 8th or something. There they grab kiwi. They package a 3rd and they 2nd they probably get for the trade and move back into the 1st. there they grab a LT. then in the 2nd they get a good passrushing OLB. he moves into 2nd string OLB.

As long as we have 4 down linemen, I would be happy. We are applying terrible, terrible amounts of pressure on QBs with the current 34, something NEEDS to be done.

 

[WildBlackBear32]

If we traded back to 7-8 and pick up a 2nd round to I would do somthing like this.
If possible trade back a little further and still get one of these LT and add more picks.
RD1 - Best LT left on board Dbrick, E Winston, J Scott, M Mcneil
RD1 - AJ Hawk or Chad Greenway,
RD2 - BPA out of Dline, Te, C, RG, CB if Pbuch continues to play bad.

If we get Hawk/Greenway what do we do with Babin and Peek? Rotate them in?? Realistically, LB is one of the last places I would go in the first round.

 

[ledzeppelin229]

If DBrick is head and shoulders above the other LT, even if they are "serviceable" LTs, I would rather go ahead and get him anyway. Mario and Mathias don't seem like sure things just yet, I don't really know why. Of course, nothing is when it comes to the draft, but I think we'd have a better chance of getting a great pass rusher in FA or later on, atleast a much better chance than another top LT.

 

[tulexan]

If DBrick is still on the board when we pick, I don't see how we couldn't pick him. You don't pass on a talent like that.

 

[WildBlackBear32]

If DBrick is still on the board when we pick, I don't see how we couldn't pick him. You don't pass on a talent like that.

Signed, Kenyatta Walker.

 

[Grid]

I WAS of the opinion that the 3-4 was the way to go.. but after seeing these dominant and FAST 4-3 defenses for the last 4 years.. im thinking that maybe we should change it along with our coaching staff.

Its entirely possible that we WILL switch to a 4-3 considering our lack of talent at LB and the good chance that we will have some new coaches next season. If ya look at the actual GOOD players that we have... it seems like we would have an easier time putting out a quality 4-3 defense than a 3-4.

It IS true that the best defenses in the league..statistically.. have been 3-4s..but the defenses that have had the most impact on games, in my opinion, have been the 4-3s. They are the ones coming up with the sacks, interceptions, and tackles for a loss (or at least this is how it has seemed to me..i have no stats to prove that).. but look at the superbowls.

If you were to remove New England from the equation for the last 5 years.. it would look like this.

4-3s in the superbowl: 5
3-4s in the superbowl: 2

with NE in it.. it is tied at five 4-3s and five 3-4s


That doesnt exactly show that 3-4s are the answer.. especially when you consider that NE is a very special case.

Nope.. im hoping that we will, somehow, get Monte Kiffen from Tampa Bay. That is a truely awesome 4-3 defense.

 

[ledzeppelin229]

"Very special case"? I think that one team could repeatedly have success with it, would actually give it more credit. Our defense has a lot of raw athletes as well as some talent and veteran experience on it. Typically, that wouldn't rank you #32 in the league. I've lost faith in Fangio getting things done on D. He was run out of Indy for a reason.

 

[beerlover]

"Very special case"? I think that one team could repeatedly have success with it, would actually give it more credit. Our defense has a lot of raw athletes as well as some talent and veteran experience on it. Typically, that wouldn't rank you #32 in the league. I've lost faith in Fangio getting things done on D. He was run out of Indy for a reason.

excellent post! if Palmer can be fired (justified- almost immediate improvement) then Fangio can take the brunt of the blow for the defensive failures. the Texans have the players to be much better than they are in the 3-4- promote Jon Hoke

 

[infantrycak]

If you were to remove New England from the equation for the last 5 years.. it would look like this.

4-3s in the superbowl: 5
3-4s in the superbowl: 2

with NE in it.. it is tied at five 4-3s and five 3-4s

That doesnt exactly show that 3-4s are the answer.. especially when you consider that NE is a very special case.

That doesn't really give the full picture. Only 3-5 teams have played the 3-4 in that time period. That means 3-4 teams had at most 25 chances to make the SB (5 teams per year, 5 years). 4-3 teams have had 135 chances during the same time period. Having the 3-4 appear half the time in the SB seems like a pretty strong success statement. It is why since 5 years ago more teams have become 3-4 or have starting mixing in 3-4 looks instead of the other way around.

 

[Fldvldog]

I don't have him falling to 15-20.

For the texans? Seriously, they will probably have a top 5 pick. If he's available, the texans should pick him up.

 

[WildBlackBear32]

For the texans? Seriously, they will probably have a top 5 pick. If he's available, the texans should pick him up.

Completely defeating the whole purpose of this thread...

 

[PapaL]

and the Jets would probably be interested in Bush given Martin is getting up there.

Jets signed Derrick Blaylock in the offseason. Not a scrub RB by any means. Good post though.

 

[infantrycak]

For the texans? Seriously, they will probably have a top 5 pick. If he's available, the texans should pick him up.

Try a least reading the thread so your silly, too much time on your hands, jabs at least make sense. Thanks.

 

[WildBlackBear32]

Zero sacks. Zero Turnovers forced. 34 points against. Anyone uhhhh, disagree with this scenario still?

 

[Panther5407]

Drop the 3-4. The 4-3 gives you more athletes out there and gives you better results. I guarantee Peek would give you better results as a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 LB.

 

[rmartin65]

as i said before, id drop the 3-4. but how does the 4-3 give you more athletes?

 

[WildBlackBear32]

as i said before, id drop the 3-4. but how does the 4-3 give you more athletes?

Gives you athletes in different places. Instead of the athletes playing LB, they would be playing DE. See: Peppers, Kearse, Freeney. All Tremendous athletes.

 

[Panther5407]

as i said before, id drop the 3-4. but how does the 4-3 give you more athletes?

gives you more by looking at it this way. 3-4, you have 3 big slow lineman compared to the 4-3, where you have two (your DTs). Just a better sort of defense overall. 3-4 only works if you have exactlly the right personal. One missing spot could ruin the whole thing.

 

[WildBlackBear32]

Well...we did get BETTER pass rushing last night...but it was still a problem. Oh, no we wont even talk about the Rush defense...

 

[Vinny]

gives you more by looking at it this way. 3-4, you have 3 big slow lineman compared to the 4-3, where you have two (your DTs). Just a better sort of defense overall. 3-4 only works if you have exactlly the right personal. One missing spot could ruin the whole thing.

Well...there is the "front 7" and in the 3-4 you have 3 tackles and 4 linebackers....in the 4-3 you have 2 tackles and two ends with 3 linebackers....bottom line you have 7 players in the box no matter how you slice it. Generally speaking the 3-4 is known to have 'more athletes' than a 4-3 since the outside linebackers are hybrid players who are known for athleticism beyond regular de's....so most people consider the 3-4 the defense with more athletes. Either system works if you have the right guys…and the right coaching.

 

[beerlover]

Well...there is the "front 7" and in the 3-4 you have 3 tackles and 4 linebackers....in the 4-3 you have 2 tackles and two ends with 3 linebackers....bottom line you have 7 players in the box no matter how you slice it. Generally speaking the 3-4 is known to have 'more athletes' than a 4-3 since the outside linebackers are hybrid players who are known for athleticism beyond regular de's....so most people consider the 3-4 the defense with more athletes. Either system works if you have the right guys…and the right coaching.

I agree but would like to add- the dominant 4-3 ends are a rare commodity & are highly sought after. these 3-4 OLB "hybred players" are usually converted DE's who lack the size and power to play DE in the NFL, plus teams don't have to spend high picks (up until recently) to aquire them.

 

[Vinny]

Any dominant pass rusher is a rare commodity and highly sought after. It doesn't matter if he is a classic 4-3 end or a tweener like Demarcus Ware....they will go high in any draft.

 

[beerlover]

Any dominant pass rusher is a rare commodity and highly sought after. It doesn't matter if he is a classic 4-3 end or a tweener like Demarcus Ware....they will go high in any draft.

DeMarcus Ware would be in that (until recently) special player category, but on average the OLB position in the 3-4 is filled with latter rd picks thats a simple fact

 

[Vinny]

That was when only a couple of teams ran it. The more teams that run it the more you will see Ware's and Merrimans go early in the draft because you have one pick per round and if there are multiple teams looking for a passrusher and multiple teams running the 3-4 you won't get the same guy in rd 2 anymore....forcing up the players since its not a given you are the only team looking at tweeners....you are living in the past man.

 

[WildBlackBear32]

DeMarcus Ware would be in that (until recently) special player category, but on average the OLB position in the 3-4 is filled with latter rd picks thats a simple fact

Not so sure about that. Suggs was a top 10 pick I believe and he was a DE turned 3-4 OLB(until this year). Then there is Babin(who was picked wayyyy too high) in the same deal. So while your statement is mostly true, there are some exceptions, we also need to remember the 3-4 is a sorta recent phenomenon.

 

[beerlover]

Not so sure about that. Suggs was a top 10 pick I believe and he was a DE turned 3-4 OLB(until this year). Then there is Babin(who was picked wayyyy too high) in the same deal. So while your statement is mostly true, there are some exceptions, we also need to remember the 3-4 is a sorta recent phenomenon.

the blueprint for the 3-4 is still the Patriots & they did not spend any high picks on thier OLB'ers.

 

[WildBlackBear32]

Head to head matchup between the two freak DEs tonight. So far, Kiwi has 5 sacks and 4 TFLs. I'm tellin ya, this guy would look good in the Battle Reds.

 

[YoungTexanFan]

Head to head matchup between the two freak DEs tonight. So far, Kiwi has 5 sacks and 4 TFLs. I'm tellin ya, this guy would look good in the Battle Reds.

they must have victor riley trying to stop him :brickwall

 

[WildBlackBear32]

they must have victor riley trying to stop him :brickwall

Left Tackle, Right Tackle...it doesnt matter, In O'Brien's defensive schemes the line shifts on almost every play. Sometimes Kiwis on the right, sometimes hes on the left. Sometimes he's inside the tackle/guard, sometimes hes outside the tackle. Noone could lay a hand on Kiwi tonight.

 

[YoungTexanFan]

i seem to be bad at conveying sarcasm and sheer dissapointment.

 

[WildBlackBear32]

I saw the sarcasm I was simply stating he couldnt be stopped...

 

[YoungTexanFan]

I saw the sarcasm I was simply stating he couldnt be stopped...

I see...point taken. He is a force, but i feel injuries will hamper his career. Mario Williams is very incosistant but less of a concern.