My 1st (and last) pro Reggie Thread. A stastical comparison:

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by gtexan02, Apr 16, 2006.

  1. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2005
    Messages:
    15,785
    Likes Received:
    1,243
    Location:
    Boston
    These numbers are taken from: http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/playerDet...=703&player=10

    Here is a comparison of Reggie Bush to the top 3 RBs taken last year:

    Ronnie Brown Career Totals
    Games Played 48
    RUSHING ATT 513 YRDS 2835 LOSS 128 NET 2707 TD 28 AVG 5.28
    Receiving NO 58 YDS 668 TD 2 AVG 11.5
    CAREER TOTAL TD 30 POINTS 180

    Cadillac Williams Career Totals
    Games Played 44
    RUSHING ATT 741 YRDS 4066 LOSS 235 NET 3831 TD 45 AVG 5.17
    Receiving NO 45 YDS 342 TD 1 AVG 7.6
    CAREER TOTAL TD 46 POINTS 276

    Cedric Benson Career Totals
    Games Played 49
    RUSHING ATT 1112 YRDS 5723 LOSS 183 NET 5540 TD 64 AVG 4.98
    Receiving NO 69 YDS 621 TD 3 AVG 9
    CAREER TOTAL TD 67 POINTS 402

    Reggie Bush Career Totals
    Games Played 39
    RUSHING ATT 433 YRDS 3312 LOSS 143 NET 3169 TD 25 AVG 7.32
    Receiving NO 95 YDS 1301 TD 13 AVG 13.69474
    CAREER TOTAL TD 38 POINTS 228

    So lets compare important points here:

    Yards per carry: R Bush (7.32) > R Brown (5.28) > C Williams (5.17) > C Benson (4.98)

    Receiving Yards Per Catch: R Bush (13.69) > R Brown (11.5) > C Benson (9) > C Williams (7.6)

    Touchdowns Per Rushing Attempt: C Williams (16.46 carries) > R Bush (17.32 carries) > C Benson (17.375 carries) > R Brown (18.3 carries)

    Touchdowns Per Receiving Catch: R Bush (7.3 catches) > C Benson (23 catches) > R Brown (29 catches) > C Williams (45 catches)

    Overall touches Per Touchdown Scored: R Bush (13.89) > C Williams (17.08 touches) > C Benson (17.63) > R Brown (19.033 touches)

    So every 14 times Bush touches the ball, he scored, whereas it took the others nearly 3 extra touches every time. And all the rest of the stuff, plus this isn't even considering all purpose (return) yards.

    PS: Reggie Scored this often EVEN THOUGH all the Goal line carries went to Len Dale White (52 Rushing TDs)


    So whats he going to be like in the pros you ask?

    In college, Reggie average around 7.32 yards per carry. Similarly, R Brown, C Williams, and C Benson averaged 5.28, 5.17, and 4.98 ypc respectively while in college. In the pros, they averaged 4.4, 4.1, and 4.1 ypc respectively. This translates to a little more than a 1 ypc drop between college and pro. Now, I'm not saying that theres any chance that Bush will average 6.32 yards per carry in the pros primarily because his running style won't translate as easily as someone like Benson. For a conservative number, lets say he averages around 5 ypc (2.32 ypc drop) as a rookie.

    Now then, in college, RB averaged nearly 13.2 yards per catch. Again, I don't think it will translate as easily, so lets drop that to 10 yards per catch.

    Finally, RB scored a touchdown on offense every 13.89 times he touched the ball (this is with LD White taking all the red zone carries). Because we are dropping his other numbers, lets assume drop this one by more than HALF. so that he sores every 28 times he touches the ball.

    Now in college last year he had 200 touches (15 per game) and 37 receptions (about 3 per game). In a 16 game season, he'll get (assuming the same 'easy' workload) 240 carries and 48 receptions. This means if he averages anywhere near what we're predicting, he'll rack up 1200 yards rushing and 480 yards receiving. If we use our new scoring algorithm, he'll have about 10 tds.

    Now this is all speculation, but I tried to be conservative and realistic. Imagine what he could do if he A) gained yardage closer to his collegiate days and B) scored anywhere near the amount he did in college.

    This is the kind of explosive boost that can really stimulate a team. If those 3 RBs were good enough for top 10 consideration, I think RB should be #1 no problem. Now that I've said my peace, I'm done with the RB threads (until we pass on him in the draft, in which case I'll be pretty vocal ;))
     
  2. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2005
    Messages:
    15,785
    Likes Received:
    1,243
    Location:
    Boston
    PS: I think this can most easily be countered by proposing that there are plenty of backs out there that can carry the ball 240 times at 4.5 ypc and average 3 receptions a game, while scoring around 10 tds. In fact, DD is the perfect example of this.

    The point of this post was, however, to note that even if you slash reggies colleges numbers when translating his game to the pro level, his "conservative" estimate comes out looking like DDs best season. Imagine if he produced even better than this, or scored near his collegiate days, and DD produced at the top of his game too. I see no reason why the Texans wouldn't have the most potent backfield in all of football, and when you have AJ + Moulds + Mathis + Putzier to occupy some of the safeties and LBs that want to stack the box, YIKES imagine the possibilities!!!!
     
  3. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2006
    Messages:
    7,438
    Likes Received:
    245
    Location:
    Tampa, FL
    pretty good comparisons. the problem is that ronnie brown will be better than bush. ;)
     
  4. TreWardTxn

    TreWardTxn Veteran

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2006
    Messages:
    388
    Likes Received:
    7
    I really don't think that deserves the wink, but maybe more of a straight face...
     
  5. Texan in Japan

    Texan in Japan All Pro

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    529
    Likes Received:
    25
    Location:
    Colorado
    Interesting analysis. Bush certainly provides an explosive playmaking option and with your estimates, he'd be a definite RoY candidate.

    Staying healthy is a concern and how we mix him w/ DD could keep them both fresh. Bush is certainly an exciting possibility, but so is trading down for more picks in this draft. C'mon 29 Apr!!!
     
  6. Wolf

    Wolf 100% Texan

    Joined:
    May 1, 2004
    Messages:
    37,964
    Likes Received:
    1,703
    Location:
    Kerrville
    I realize this is apples to oranges.

    How does the Pac-10 compare to the SEC or even the Big 12 when those runners ran..

    I am not doubting Bush and his ability, but just curious on strength of teams when the RB's ran
     

Share This Page