Lombardi on Draft Philosophy

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by ArlingtonTexan, Mar 18, 2009.

  1. ArlingtonTexan

    ArlingtonTexan Moderator Staff Member

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    Understanding Talent and need using the Bengals as a negative example.

    http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2009/03/diner-morning-news-bengals-draft-talk/

     
  2. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    2006 -

    1st Mario Williams - starter
    2nd DeMeco Ryans - starter
    3rd Charles Spencer - starter
    3rd Eric Winston - starter
    4th Owen Daniels - starter
    6th Wali Lundy - busted (did start a few games-no alternative)
    7th David Anderson - starter (slot WR)

    2007 -

    1st Amobi Okoye - starter
    2nd Matt Schaub - starter
    3rd Jacoby Jones - starter (punt returns)
    4th Fred Bennett - back-up (has started on occasion)
    5th Brandon Harrison - back-up (has also started at times)
    5th Brandon Fry - back-up/developmental (picked up by another team)
    6th Kasey Studdard - back-up/developmental (make or break year)
    7th Zach Diles - starter

    2008 -

    1st Duane Brown - starter
    2nd Matt Schaub - starter
    3rd Steve Slaton - starter
    4th Xavier Adibi - starter
    5th Frank Okam - back-up/developmental
    6th Chris Meyers - starter
    6th Dominique Barber - back-up/starter
    7th Alex Brink - developmental

    I get the general idea, get it, "general" idea draft for starters gosh why doesnt everybody do that......forget about what round just draft a player @ a position you think/know he would have immediate impact. why didn't I think of that?

    maybe because everyone else is trying to do the same thing so it comes back around to best player available or that some positions like CB, DL & QB take more time to develop, of course they're always exceptions funny how they usually are first rounders, but point well taken :cool:

    what we need to do now is pinpoint those areas of weakness on this team & bring in new starters from the draft. as noted above the Texans added 6 new starters via the draft, in 07 that number dropped to 3 1/2 (split Schaub) as the team showed signs of improvement but then in 08 added 4 1/2 (counted Matt Schaub again 1/2).

    there was a poll around earlier asking folks to guess how many new starters there would be in the draft this year. the team is improving so its becoming more & more difficult to upgrade directly from College to the Pros yet here we're told to just draft starters, so if the Texans could repeat a performance like the past three drafts that average is 4 1/2 less 1/2 Schaub lets make it 4.

    positions to upgrade as starters could be.

    OG/OC Brisiel/Myers/White - Gibbs can could put the finishing touches on
    SLB/WLB Diles/Bentley/Adibi - Bush can take his type of playmaker
    DT Johnson/Okam/Zgonina - Kollar can add missing link
    CB Reeves/Bennett/Molden - young Gibbs can have entirely different look

    those are the key positions in the first four rounds for the Texans. All we gotta do is take the the bpa @ each position who can come into camp & win a starting job.

    1st Peria Jerry DT - beats out Travis Johnson
    2nd Clint Sintim OLB - beats out Diles
    3rd Antoine Caldwell OC/OG - beats out Myers/Brisiel
    4th Keenan Lewis CB - Bennett/Molden/Reeves

    rep that :user:
     
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  3. mussop

    mussop Hall of Fame

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    This is what I have been preaching for the last month.
     
  4. HoustonFrog

    HoustonFrog Dallas Frog

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    If you want to hear Lombardi talk some more football about off season moves in general and his Top 10 in the draft go to the Sports Guy on ESPN and listen to the other days podcast..BS Report on right...some talk on Sage too..good, quick listen

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/simmons/index
     
  5. MojoMan

    MojoMan Hall of Fame

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    Great analysis if the past three draft classes. And a great way to approach the draft. The Texans have done very well over the last three years.

    The only thing that I would significantly disagree with you on is the need for a DT. I think we are OK there. What we really need is another starting quality running back. Slaton is great, but he is the only starting quality RB on the roster right now. You have to have at least two. These guys take more abuse than anyone else on the football field. I hope Slaton starts every game this year, and for the next 10 years. But a smart coach will be cautious enough to plan for the possibility that this will not happen. Not even this year.

    So, add a RB to the top four and remove the DT.

    The order matters less, but for the draft order I would recommend:

    1. CB
    2. OLB
    3. RB
    4. C

    Any order we can pick up starters will be good for me. Which correctly seems to be your primary point of emphasis.
     
  6. otisbean

    otisbean All Pro

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    I like your draft with the exception of Sintim. He just isn't fluid enough to play OLB in a 4-3. IF you watched the Senior bowl practices he was the definition of stiff. If you are drafting him to be a situational pass rusher then he has value, but the 2nd round would be too high for him in that instance. I would take your guys but hopefully replace Sintim with Barwin as he is a phenomenal athlete that could develop into a serious player.
     
  7. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    I'm down with taking a RB somewhere from the 5th rd. on, I think that fits really well with what's expected from Kubiak/Smith. He would be considered in depth/developmental category since Steve is the starter- doesn't mean he won't contribute immediately in power back role. RB class has excellent depth late rounds. I would also like to add a weakside OLB into the mix since the Texans have two fourth round picks, premier bloking TE to replace Bruener & big time burner/playmaker @ WR I just didn't want to appear too greedy, but in vein of Lombardi Philosophy why not address starter upgrades in later rounds as well? :)

    4b. Cody Brown, Connecticut WLB depth/starter - share duties w/Xavier Adibi

    5th Richard Quinn, TE North Carolina - replaces Mark Bruener (blocking TE)

    6th Demetrius Byrd, WR LSU - beats out Andre Davis/Jacoby Jones

    7th Kyle Bell, RB Colrado State depth/power back - beats out Moats/Sapp

    Played @ Colorado State coming off torn acl in 07 100% recovered is 6010 233 ran a 4.54, 29 reps, vertical 34" broad jump 9'7". excellent blocking skills, adequate hands receiving, runs power back role in ZBS.
     
  8. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    thats a good point & only reason he is still available. Fills Texans need for a strong side elephant stand-up OLB who does have pass rush ability but can hold up against the run. would also consider English but think he will be gone but really they are pretty much a toss-up its more a question of who's available who can come in day one as the starter (per draft philosophy).
     


  9. jdog

    jdog All Pro

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    I like this. Add the possibility of trading down for additional pick(s), and we can really solidify the team. So, what areas need improvement most in order of priority, and for each of those areas, which rounds will we most likely be able to find possible starters?
     
  10. painekiller

    painekiller Hall of Fame

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    This is why the Bengal draft so poorly year in and year out. They are to cheap to pay scouts and have a head scout that lays out the board.

    In Houston and most successful drafting teams, the scouts grade the prospects and lay out the draft board. All seven rounds plus UDFA guys. Then team and only then is team need addressed.
     
  11. jdog

    jdog All Pro

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    S - Nic Harris, Oklahoma Round 2
    CB - Sean Smith, Utah, Round 1 or CB - Vontae Davis, Illinois, Round 1 or CB - Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State, Round 1
    LB - Zack Follet, California, Round 4
    C - Antoine Caldwell, Alabama, Round 3
    RB - Andre Brown, NC State, Round 4
    OG - George Bussey, Louisville, Round 6
    DT - Terrance Knighton, Temple, Round 5
    TE - Dan Gronkowski, Maryland, Round 7
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2009
  12. bah007

    bah007 Hall of Fame

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    What kind of order is this in?

    Harris in the 2nd is a reach. He has the mentality of a safety and the skills of a OLB.

    I like him, but closer to the 4th round.
     
  13. jdog

    jdog All Pro

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    I was trying to put them in order of need IMO. Yeah, you're right about Harris. What pick(s) do you think we could realistically get for trading down in the first? Who's a good safety we could get for good value in the second? What do you think about the other picks?
     
  14. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    How can we be ok at DT when the coaches have identified stopping the run as a high priority? You going to hope that TJ and Okoye are better? I'll give you that Okoye had good rookie season and he was hurt last season but what offers hope the run issue will no longer be an issue?
     
  15. El Tejano

    El Tejano Hall of Fame

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    I think that RB is a position of need + will have the best talent available when we decide to draft one.
     
  16. bah007

    bah007 Hall of Fame

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    FS:
    Sean Smith will probably be gone here
    Louis Delmas is he falls to us
    Rashad Johnson would be decent value

    SS:
    William Moore is he continues to drop would be great value. Teach him how to tackle and you got yourself a good 2nd rounder
    Patrick Chung would be decent value

    I would prefer to get a safety in the third unless one of the above bolded players is there in the second. I think the safeties in the third have less risk attached.

    My favorite in the class is FS Derek Pegues (Mississippi St). I would take him in the 3rd, but it's possible his size could drop him to the 4th. I also like Trimane Goddard (North Carolina) in the 5th. He is a ballhawk, not a complete player though.

    For SS, my favorite is Courtney Greene (Rutgers) in the 4th or Otis Wiley (Michigan St) in the 5th.
     
  17. ArlingtonTexan

    ArlingtonTexan Moderator Staff Member

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    The economics of what the Bengals do is correct, but

    There is some logic to what the Bengals do i.e. this is my highest need and so i should draft the highest rated player at the position of need in the highest round. Honestly, pretty instinctive and what a lot (maybe even most) of fans think of the draft. There are numerous posts and threads on this board to support my notion about how fans think.


    The problem is that if a team does not think the highest rated player at your highest need is a starting talent (not just immediate by the way), then a team should not draft to fill that need. Over time, a team is better with more talent than trying fill a short term need with a lesser player.

    Big picture of what Lombardi is saying is that the most important distiction not the ranking of players or stating that ____ should go in the ----round but the teiring of players as:

    1) Starters
    2) Potential Starters
    3) Back-up role Players.

    The round where you draft a player is not and cannot be known until the draft takes place. While this reads like semantics, his idea is that there is not a second round talent, but a talent you take in the second round.
     
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  18. painekiller

    painekiller Hall of Fame

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    I can follow this better now. But IMO most teams grade players, and they score guys from 1 to 100. No player is a 100. Now when Casserly talks about 1st round grade this is what he is talking about. In some draft like this one, there are not 32 guys that grade out as 1st rounders.

    Now we know that 32 guys will be 1st rounders, but in this draft, again IMO, player #12 is not much different from player #40. So having a guy that knows the whole board and how it lays with the teams entire set of needs is very important.

    When you do what the Bengals are saying you end up with David Carr at #1 when Peppers and Bryant McKinnie where clearly better players.
     
  19. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    evidently a little stiff in practice translates into less than great workout numbers too. this only helps the Texans (who where present @ his pro-day) a better chance he'll still be available for them in the 2nd rd. LB more than any other position I can think of is all about being a football player first, someone you can count on to make plays & his speciality is chasing down QB's. love his attitude & I think Bush does as well..... http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/sp...otball/article/UVAP20_20090319-222310/236459/

     
  20. LZ

    LZ Veteran

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    Lombardi is on every week with me on 1560 AM from 8 to 8:30 each Friday. GREAT football discussions with him. He will be in Italy this week, but he'll be back next week.
     

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