Link QB change has a profound effect

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by TexanBorn51, Oct 7, 2013.

  1. TexanBorn51

    TexanBorn51 Veteran

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    I'm 62 and been an Oiler fan since the 60's. I actually read quite a lot of threads here over the years and sometimes have posted. But here I enjoy reading everyone's opinions, feelings, thoughts, and have learned quite a bit about the Texans and football. I'm not much good trying to explain myself. I also do have my thoughts and opinions. Almost most of the time my restraint wins and keeps me from posting whether from frustration, time, laziness, or staying away from honest confrontation. But today I found this link and there are others that I was not expecting before the season started. I know it's the talk of town and I'm just trying to be moderate, patient, and cool about it. But after hearing this was like breaking through a hard shell of many people's take on the Schaub Kubiak thing. Listen and watch around us and one will see that you also don't have to be a Texan fan to see what's going on here. I wish the Texans the best this year for whatever outcome. But there is a reason for all this and I'm slowly finding out IMHO where I stand. Here is an example
    http://www.sportsoverdose.com/video/do-texans-need-to-make-qb-change-2.html
     
    Hervoyel, HJam72, MEGA SWATT and 2 others like this.
  2. Come On Breh

    Come On Breh Veteran

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    There are no perfect quarterbacks. Even Peyton Manning throws a pass to the other team from time to time. It happened Sunday, but as his Denver Broncos' 51-48 victory over the Dallas Cowboys demonstrated, there are interceptions and then there are interceptions from hell. If every turnover were equal, the emotional damage would be easier to endure. It's the killer pick that leaves the deepest scars -- deep enough, sometimes, to make the long-criticized game manager seem attractive by comparison.

    Of course, a cautious game manager wasn't going to suffice in the type of shootout Tony Romo and the Cowboys lost so painfully to Manning's Broncos. The late interception Romo threw hurt so much precisely because he had been so dynamic to that point. The play will only harden Romo's reputation as prone to the critical mistake, but he was not alone Sunday. Killer interceptions stood out for losing quarterbacks Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert.

    Romo and Schaub have become known for breaking hearts. Eli Manning has had his moments as well. Categorizing interceptions by corresponding changes in team win probability gives us a context for just how much each turnover hurts. For example, the pick Romo threw against the Broncos reduced the Cowboys' chances by 25.9 percentage points, an unusually large drop for a single play. It was the ninth time since 2008 that a Romo pick reduced Dallas' chances by at least 20 percentage points. But if you forget Romo's reputation for a second and look at the numbers you'll find that Schaub is an even worse offender. That fact begs the question: Can Schaub survive his early season mistakes in Houston? Or, more to the point, should he?

    A little context is in order before we get to Romo, Schaub and the other NFL heartbreakers. Ten years of play-by-play data have set expectations for winning based on specific game circumstances including the score, down, distance, quarter, time remaining, venue and field surface. This data showed the Cowboys with a 55.9 percent win probability when they had first-and-10 from their own 20-yard line with 2:39 remaining in a tie game Sunday. The sack Romo took on first down reduced those chances by 7.7 percentage points. Then came the fateful pick, and just like that, the Broncos had the ball at the Dallas 24. Denver's win probability stood at 77.6 percent and the Cowboys were essentially finished.

    Through the late, late game Sunday night, NFL quarterbacks had thrown 2,610 interceptions since 2008. An interception thrown on a 50-yard Hail Mary to end the first half doesn't matter much. A pick thrown during the fourth quarter of a tie game matters a great deal. For the sake of this discussion, I've divided those 2,610 picks into three categories:

    Bad: 60 percent of those picks (1,573 of the 2,610) reduced their teams' win probability by 10 or fewer percentage points. For example, the interception Andy Dalton threw Sunday on the final play of the first quarter of a scoreless game against New England produced a 10.8-point drop. This was a costly play, not a fatal one.

    Worse: 30 percent (778) of all picks since 2008 produced reductions in win probability between 10 and 19.9 percentage points. The fourth-quarter interception Tennessee's Ryan Fitzpatrick threw against the Kansas City Chiefs fell into this category. The Titans trailed by three points with 6:23 remaining. The pick reduced their win probability from 38.9 percent to 22.4 percent, a drop of 16.5 points.

    Worst: 10 percent of interceptions (259) since 2008 reduced their teams' chances by at least 20 percentage points. Romo's pick Sunday fell into this category. So did the interception Eli Manning threw against Philadelphia while trailing 22-21 with 10:49 remaining. That one produced a 24.1-point drop.

    Quarterbacks aren't to blame for every interception. Bad luck, bad route running, bad pass protection and other factors come into play. Also, quarterbacks playing well enough to keep their teams competitive will have their teams in position to win -- and therefore in position to suffer significant drops in win probability on a single play. It's impossible to suffer a 20-point drop in win probability if your team has a 10 percent chance of winning. But losing is losing, and this has become a familiar refrain for Schaub.

    Worst of the worst

    The pick-six Schaub threw on the third play of the Houston Texans' 34-3 defeat at San Francisco gave him one in four successive games, a record. It was also his least damaging of the four, by far, because so much time remained in the game. His previous three came deeper into one-score games, affecting win probability by between 24 and 39 percent on each. Those three killer picks give Schaub a league-high 14 in the "worst" category reserved for interceptions reducing win probability by at least 20 percentage points. That's five more than anyone else since 2008.

    Schaub needs a high pain threshold. He has thrown 64 picks overall since 2008, and 21.9 percent of those fell into the "worst" category. That's twice the league average and the highest rate for any current NFL starter.

    The chart to the right shows the 10 quarterbacks with at least eight interceptions in the "worst" category since 2008. The final two columns show these plays in relation to total pass attempts. Schaub not only has the highest raw total, he also has one of the highest rates per pass attempt. While Drew Brees is tied for second with nine "worst" interceptions, his percentage is about half of Schaub's.

    INTs Reducing Win Probability by 20+ Pct.
    QB INTs Att. Pct.
    Matt Schaub 14 2,585 0.54
    Mark Sanchez 9 1,867 0.48
    Carson Palmer 9 2,254 0.40
    Tony Romo 9 2,571 0.35
    Philip Rivers 9 2,805 0.32
    Drew Brees 9 3,335 0.27
    Chad Henne 8 1,468 0.54
    Kyle Orton 8 1,766 0.32
    Jay Cutler 8 2,532 0.32
    Eli Manning 8 2,855 0.28
    Stats cover 2008 to present

    The pick Arizona's Daryl Washington collected off Carolina's Cam Newton in the fourth quarter of a one-score game Sunday fell into this category, changing win probability by 20.9 points. It was only the third time Newton has thrown one of these.

    Some of the quarterbacks most closely associated with these costly interceptions also rank among the leaders in plays producing the largest positive swings. Fifteen of Eli Manning's touchdown passes since 2008 produced gains in win probability of at least 20 points, by far the most in the NFL over that span. Matthew Stafford (11), Romo (9), Tom Brady (9), Brees (8), Rodgers (8), Ryan (7) and Cutler (7) are next on the list.

    The total for Schaub? Two, tied with a group featuring Troy Smith, Stephen McGee, Shaun Hill, Matt Moore, Curtis Painter, Christian Ponder, Alex Smith and a few players whose careers remain in their formative stages.

    This is not an air-tight measure. Interceptions aren't the only way a quarterback can significantly hurt his team's chances, just as touchdowns aren't the only way he can affect a positive swing. But if Schaub or any quarterback is going to give away games with so many killer interceptions, we might reasonably expect greater positive return on the other side.

    Schaub remains near the bottom when we expand the criteria from interceptions and touchdowns to include all QB action plays featuring win probability changes of at least 20 points. He has nine plus-20-percent plays and 16 minus-20-percent plays, producing a minus-seven differential that ranks second-worst in the league since 2008 among current starters. Philip Rivers is at minus-13, including minus-3 this season, but he's done enough right to trail only Peyton Manning in Total QBR this season. Schaub ranks 27th in QBR, one spot below Geno Smith and one ahead of the winless Eli Manning.

    Schaub also has less equity built up. Since 2008, Eli Manning is plus-13 in QB action plays featuring win probability swings of at least 20 points -- and he's won two Super Bowls overall. Next comes Stafford (plus-10), Ryan (plus-6) and Rodgers (plus-5), followed by an odd mix of quarterbacks in the next tier. Schaub, meanwhile, is not only second from the bottom but he's also at minus-4 this season, meaning he's trending in the wrong direction.

    Coach Gary Kubiak keeps saying Schaub will remain his starter, and Schaub has a good opportunity to stop his slide. A home game against the St. Louis Rams' pass defense should help in Week 6. Even though the Rams collected a pick-six off Gabbert on Sunday, producing a 26.7-point change in win probability, St. Louis still ranks among the bottom five in passer rating allowed (106.7) and Total QBR (69.1) allowed.

    If Schaub can't beat the Rams, then what? A trip to Kansas City follows in Week 7. The Chiefs lead the NFL in passer rating allowed (62.3) and Total QBR allowed (25.1). They're tied for the league lead with two interceptions returned for scores.

    Week 6 could prove pivotal for Schaub. His current pace is simply unsustainable.


    why matt schaub has to go:

    http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mike-sando/post?id=1220
     
  3. Mr teX

    Mr teX Hall of Fame

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    I mean its stephen a and skip bayless so u have to take what they say with a grain if salt.....but its hard to dispute anything stephen a is saying...its all out there at this point...
     
  4. Come On Breh

    Come On Breh Veteran

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    stephen a has been saying this forever.
     
  5. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Solid post old timer. Keep them coming.

    I liked Steven A Smith when he first came on the scene, because he said what needed to be said, in a room full of people he had no business saying it.

    Then when he started to get clout...... I turned him off. Got tired of his "act"

    But he's spot on here. I really like his comments about Keenum. Solid points.

    Exactly what they(we) need.
     
  6. Thorn

    Thorn Dirty Old Man

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    Old timer? He's the same age as me. I can assure you, not only are we smarter than you we are also better looking. :fingergun:
     
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  7. cstyle42

    cstyle42 Veteran

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    The truth either comforts or offends. This day has been coming people don't have to say Schaub is terrible over time the truth always comes to the light. That's why 4 years ago when Steve Young said Schaub is never the reason Texans win... I knew most us texans fans wouldn't agree. 4 years later we are here. David Carr for 5 years... the oilers... this is all about making money filling up seats in the stadium.
     
  8. TexanBorn51

    TexanBorn51 Veteran

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    lol forever young for all you guys thanks for the replies. Hey thunderkyss it's been a long time but I actually do remember that I think you were the first one to reply years ago to me. Good to hear from ya. n yea Thorn we look better not sure on the smarter thing tho lol. Anyways I feel better now that I'm not totally alone on this QB change stuff but many posters here are threading it around. I was just tying to handshake that to the other world out there. They're doing the same thing.
     


  9. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    Steven A Smith is right... he doesn't know what he's talking about. Best thing Steven A Smith has done is sit next to Skippy Bayless -- everyone looks/sounds good sitting next to Bayless.
     
  10. Scooter

    Scooter Funky

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    must be cold in hades, i actually agree with those two idiots (stephen A and whatshisname, not thorn and texan). :fingergun:
     
  11. BullNation4Life

    BullNation4Life Hall of Fame

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    Never thought these words would EVER come out of my mouth when it came to those two douche monkeys..

    HOWEVA!!!

    they are absolutely right. Matty Pick 6 is dead as the Houston Texans QB, Kubiak and McNair are just to stubborn to realize it. Is Keenum the answer, don't know because he hasn't got his chance to prove to anybody right or wrong. should he get his shot, hell yes he should.
     
  12. Hervoyel

    Hervoyel The Right Track

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    It is indeed but like you're saying, this is "blinding flash of the obvious" stuff right here. There's no law in the universe that says that those two guys can never be right. In fact the law of averages tells us that sooner or later, even if it's by sheer dumb luck they're going to get one right.

    This is pretty much what I see too.

    When Yates came in for Schaub (actually Leinart now that I think about it) two years ago he provided a spark at that time and I'm not going to say he couldn't do it again. I know Gary will not bench Schaub but going forward with the assumption that he does (maybe following the soon to be record-extending fifth straight pick-six courtesy of Cortland Finnegan) then sure, you know Yates is coming. It is the way Gary Kubiak does business. It is the only way he knows how to do business. Keenum represents raw talent and ability to him. Keenum is the wildcard here. If he didn't have that to offer then he wouldn't be taking up a roster spot. There are plenty of guys out there who could sit in the 3 spot and wear a baseball cap. Guys with experience who aren't going to be starters but who Gary would feel fine about way back there behind Matt and TJ. Gary has had projects before and the ones who have nothing to offer do a year on the practice squad and wash out. or two years on the practice squad and wash out. Clearly Keenum has shown him something to merit a roster spot.

    Yates on the other hand represents safety and experience. Not to the extent that Schaub does but in a scenario where Schaub is no longer an option Gary must go with Yates first. It's just how he's built.

    If Yates succeeds then fine. Great. The team gets its spark and maybe the ship gets righted. If Yates doesn't make that happen then all I'm saying is that going back to Schaub will be the death of the season for the Texans. It will be the move that turns a team not believing in their QB into a team that doesn't believe in their head coach.
     
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  13. HJam72

    HJam72 Hall of Fame

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    I don't really know what the outcome would be, but I'd be so proud of Kubiak right now if Keenum started the next game. You can't find answers if you don't look for them.
     
  14. RunningTheSouth

    RunningTheSouth Rookie

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    Some good videos, hopefully we get a chance to see what Keenum has this season.
     
  15. Porky

    Porky Hall of Fame

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    Completely agree with everything they said and their reasoning. Nothing more to add. Simply spot on.
     
  16. eriadoc

    eriadoc Texan-American

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    A stopped clock is right twice a day.
     
  17. Premier

    Premier All Pro

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    the rams are coming to town, schaub will have a great game against a bad team (much like his entire 2011) and it will buy him a couple more years.. there will be no qb change..
     
  18. cstyle42

    cstyle42 Veteran

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    True
     
  19. drs23

    drs23 Veteran

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    Until Schaub's display last night I would agree with you. I thinking now that Daddy Bob will have a sit down with the HC and give him the Caper's talk like he did with Wade Phillips. Someone mentioned in another thread that Rick would be the henchman. I can see that. As a GM he can't allow himself to become emotional about the situation. He has to keep it all business. Before you all go berzerk on me for Schaub's extension my money is on Kubiak talked McNair into it and I see McNair regretting it. That with his on record comments of the offseason I see a #8 head rolling down Kirby after the season. As far as the HC, I'm not sure. He has what, one more year on his contract or is this the end after the season? If it's the former I can see two heads rolling. If it's the latter, just Schaub. My guess is Bob will pressure Rick into making a move for for a franchise QB and we all know that's a crap shoot in and of itself.

    Getting long winded but I'll go on record saying I believe this season is toast from what I've watched in every game since the opener. I'm very interested to see how the offseason and draft shape up.

    All this after I taught Baby Girl how to holler Go Texans! She's only two so no matter who's playing as soon as she see's a football game it's on.:D

    The End
     
  20. midway

    midway Veteran

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    It makes me terribly sad to agree with those two buffoons.
     

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