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Kiper 2014
- Thread starter Playoffs
- Start date
eriadoc
Texan-American
Bottom 5:
5 (tied): Bucky Brooks and Mark Dulgerian
4: Jason McIntyre
3: Anthony Macari
2: John Clemens
1 (worst): Steve Bischoff
Guess we can take their professional opinions for what they're worth.
TexansFTW
Veteran
If that is his "big board" why was his mock today so out of wack with this? He had the 2nd best QB taken over the 1st. The best taken 3rd. The 2nd best OLB taken over the 1st, etc.
I don't have insider, but I saw his top 10 on my buddies computer
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-unveils-first-mock-draft
I don't have insider, but I saw his top 10 on my buddies computer
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-unveils-first-mock-draft
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
"League sources"... "team needs"... "what I'm hearing"... yada, yada. It's "lie to Kiper" season.
KiMock is here: http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=103788
I hope there isn't going to be a whole lot of this. I like J.Football...... hate to have to start tearing holes into the idea of selecting him #1 overall.
& for Kiper to say the things he said about him, without actually ever sitting down & talking to this kid, or Sumlin... pssh.
& there's no way he's "basically" the same size as Brees.
Another thing... has the #1 & 2 player ever came from the same school?
Tear into it. When Johnny Football takes us to the Super Bowl, you'll be standing in line with all the other haters just waiting on a chance to sniff his jock.
How big (or small) do you think he really is?
It's been said JFF has a great football mind. He never has to be told anything twice. I'm sure this topic will be covered soon.
Once LZ gets 5 years in, he'll be near the top.
I still want an accuracy report that equates actual post-draft talent to where the players were projected / drafted.
+/- 1 inch
+/- 5 lbs
sounds pretty damn close to me
Blake
MMQB
Not sure. But I always thought it was interesting that in 2010, 3 of the first 4 picks were Sooners.
TexansFTW
Veteran
Good question. I tried Googling this, but came up with nothing. Maybe a better Googler or someone that remembers can answer, cause I'm interested.
The Sooners thing is nuts, I completely forgot about that.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Three time that I see...
Code:
2000 1 1 Courtney Brown DE CLE Penn St.
2000 1 2 LaVar Arrington LB WAS Penn St.
1984 1 1 Irving Fryar WR NWE Nebraska
1984 1 2 Dean Steinkuhler T HOU Nebraska
1967 1 1 Bubba Smith DE BAL Michigan St.
1967 1 2 Clint Jones RB MIN Michigan St.http://www.pro-football-reference.c...os=ALL&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all
I'd like to hear him substantiate the bolded.
I like Manziel. I think there is enough "buzz" around him to compensate for his shortcomings (no pun intended), enough excitement for a #1 overall selection.... But I'll never say he's "ready" to play NFL football. He'll play his brand of football & we'll see if the NFL is ready for him, but that's a different story.
I won't have a problem if the Texans draft him #1 overall, but I'll be upset if he's put into a position where he has to start day 1; i.e. they cut Matt Schaub, don't bring in a vet, or don't give Keenum/Yates a real opportunity to win the job.
I want our focus to be on winning, not developing a QB (like we did from 2004 - 2006).
Again, I think it's interesting that Bridgewater gets past St. Louis & Jacksonville. If he's a sure fire "franchise" QB, no way these two QB needy teams pass on him. No way.
I understand it would be the same for Manziel, & I would feel the same... I don't think we should take either at 1-1, but I can understand the "excitement" factor around Manziel..... even though that never ends well for the team taking the "excitement" pick.
But I can understand it.
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
When Kiper talks about teams, he really means scouts on teams right?
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Or scouts with the scouting services, more likely. Any "team" that says anything to Kiper at this time of year is gaming the draft.
2/12 Big Board
TexansFTW
Veteran
Mel Kiper is such a joke.
Why does anyone even follow this guy anymore?
I think it's ABUNDANTLY clear that nothing he says is ever his anymore.
Scroll up this page and look at what he said on 2/06. 7 days ago!!
You can't have swings like that in 7 Freaking days! You don't just throw away your big board from week to week if it truly is yours.
I'm not gonna sit here and say mine hasn't changed or things haven't happened, but my swings are very subtle, as I think most that are truly doing this with their own brains are. You don't watch a guy, call him #1, then 7 days later call him #11 even though you watched all the other guys 7 days before too.
What an absolute joke.
Why does anyone even follow this guy anymore?
I think it's ABUNDANTLY clear that nothing he says is ever his anymore.
Scroll up this page and look at what he said on 2/06. 7 days ago!!
You can't have swings like that in 7 Freaking days! You don't just throw away your big board from week to week if it truly is yours.
I'm not gonna sit here and say mine hasn't changed or things haven't happened, but my swings are very subtle, as I think most that are truly doing this with their own brains are. You don't watch a guy, call him #1, then 7 days later call him #11 even though you watched all the other guys 7 days before too.
What an absolute joke.
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Starting to look more "right" it's the QB need that will drive these QBs to top 5 picks. There's nothing wrong with that. Happens almost every year.
jradMIT
Veteran
I still think Bridgewater has the lowest floor. What gets said about Bridgewater consistently is that he is a good decision maker with poise that goes through his progressions and scans the field well pre/post snap. He can start from day 1 with decent effectiveness in most any system. I hesitate to say that with Manziel, I think he'll need and OC that shapes the playbook around his strengths and weaknesses. He might have some growing pains initially, but I still like his decision making and awareness, my main concern with him is durability. Bortles needs the most progression and coaching up of the three, I think it will be hard for him to be effective day 1, I think he still needs to learn how to see the whole field and go through his progressions. All three are first rounders in my mind. Bridgewater to me is the best bet to succeed, Manziel has the highest ceiling, Bortles has the lowest floor.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
I don't know why people keep laying this criticism at his feet every year. His model and yours are not the same and in his swings do make sense. He unabashedly moves people based on "what I am hearing." That isn't something you can say because people inside teams and scouting agencies aren't talking to you on the side.
I am not defending the accuracy of his big board. Just commenting that he and say Mike Mayock don't claim to do the same thing and shouldn't be expected to do the same thing.
Blake
MMQB
So if his big board is just him parroting what his sources are saying, that tells me that his sources arent very good or reliable.
I think it's difficult to judge his floor when you consider he wasn't playing the best of the best week in & week out. In the NFL, the competition he's going to see every week is going to be better than the best defense he saw all year.
Guys like Flacco & Roethlisberger were able to deal with it... so I'm not saying Bridgewater can't. Just that it's difficult to determine his floor.
bah007
Hall of Fame
I think the problem that most people have with Kiper is how critical he is with people who don't agree with him. Which is ironic because his "opinions" were not crafted from his own study of the players but are instead crafted from talking to people who do study the players.
I have no problem with his work. But his attitude is annoying. If he were forced to watch film on his own without guidance from others he wouldn't know what he was looking at. He has no ammo to back up his arguments other than just repeating things that he was told by others.
I have no problem with his work. But his attitude is annoying. If he were forced to watch film on his own without guidance from others he wouldn't know what he was looking at. He has no ammo to back up his arguments other than just repeating things that he was told by others.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Now that's valid criticism. It was the nature of the criticism I was objecting to earlier.
bah007
Hall of Fame
I agree with your earlier post. Kiper is not like Mayock and has never claimed to be.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Kiper is a reporter who talks/writes as if he's a scout... with great hair.
Can't wait for him & McShay to go at it again
TexansFTW
Veteran
I hear what you're saying and that's fine that he does that. Most are aware and that's clear. That's not my issue.
My issue is saying "This is my big board".
No, it's not. You can't have swings like that in 7 days. These 2 boards might as well have come from 2 different sides of the world. At least McShay's board you can tell that it was 'his' board last week and is just getting a work over.
Does he talk to 4 teams one week, then the next week talk to 4 different teams and completely override and forget what the original 4 teams said the previous week?
What is that? What if he talks to 4 different different teams next week and it's completely different again? (4 teams is a random example I am making up, no truth to it)
If his final product is solid, that's fine, I just won't follow his process as detailed in the future.
Maybe it was a correction.... Looks more inline with what he had before, with some movement. But yeah, taking Manziel from 11 to 1 then back to 11... eh...
He was most likely watching a Manziel highlight reel just before the 2/6 "big board" then he's come back to earth since.
drs23
Veteran
Or scouts with the scouting services, more likely. Any "team" that says anything to Kiper at this time of year is gaming the draft.
McShay:
Kiper
Dayum, TB's gained twenty pounds since McShay's mock I just read 2 minutes!
Edit: And grew an inch plus he's a year older! Gotta draft that kid. He does things NO ONE else can do!
TK should be feeling good about him now.
Dayum, TB's gained twenty pounds since McShay's mock I just read 2 minutes!
TK should be feeling good about him now.
I'm waiting for the combine numbers.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
This is my position across the board.
I'm trying very hard not to fall in love with any players before I see a few estimates and guesses either confirmed or denied.
TexansFTW
Veteran
IMO you should already have your decision formed before the combine, then the combine has the ability to either reinforce your decision or off put you so much that you are forced to move onto #2 option.
It should never be anything as drastic as you might see from Mel Kiper's 7 day swings in 'his' big board.
It should never be anything as drastic as you might see from Mel Kiper's 7 day swings in 'his' big board.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Agreed. The combine should be about identifying abnormalities is the already made evaluation of the players based on tape - spotting where for some reason their combine performance doesn't match their on field performance.
Texian
Hall of Fame
Regarding the Combine, some performances can be difference makers:
For RBs and CBs, 10 & 40 times, shuttle times and vertical leap can move players up and down the draft board.
For LB, DL & OL, 10 yd times and 225 reps can make a difference.
Examples: a 4.2 40 can move an RB to RD1. A 4.3 40 can move CBs up a RD or two and a 40" vertical can do the same.
A sub 1.50 10 yd split can move DE, OLBs in to RD 1 and RBs up in the draft.
OG, OT & DT who lift 225 < 25 times could drop noticeably but 225 > 30 times could enhance their draft position.
Broad Jump measures explosion and those with great performance could move up.
Combine performances do make a difference, for everyone? No. For a few, absolutely. The #1 priority of the Combine is medicals, #2 is interviews and #3 is measurables and performance.
For RBs and CBs, 10 & 40 times, shuttle times and vertical leap can move players up and down the draft board.
For LB, DL & OL, 10 yd times and 225 reps can make a difference.
Examples: a 4.2 40 can move an RB to RD1. A 4.3 40 can move CBs up a RD or two and a 40" vertical can do the same.
A sub 1.50 10 yd split can move DE, OLBs in to RD 1 and RBs up in the draft.
OG, OT & DT who lift 225 < 25 times could drop noticeably but 225 > 30 times could enhance their draft position.
Broad Jump measures explosion and those with great performance could move up.
Combine performances do make a difference, for everyone? No. For a few, absolutely. The #1 priority of the Combine is medicals, #2 is interviews and #3 is measurables and performance.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Texian
Hall of Fame
and I never said anyone did, but if the shoe fits...
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Tavon Austin was not drafted as a RB.
But you missed the point. You made a whole slew of "can" statements which is a far cry from routinely or commonly. Fact is off of game tape most clubs know about where someone is going to run. It is only when they run exceptionally different than anticipated that it makes significant changes in draft order.
Texian
Hall of Fame
I missed no point, that was your interpretation not mine. Therefore you would be the one who missed the point. Fact is my whole slew of statements are true regardless of how you want to interpret them. The other side of the coin, and you are also welcome to interpret them as you so desire, which won't necessarily make it correct, poor times, jumps or combine performances can also drop players in the draft. Game tape is not always THE ABSOLUTE as you want to suggest. The FACT and reality is the Combine in some cases MAKE A DIFFERENCE FOR BETTER OR WORSE!
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Texian
Hall of Fame
You often are articulate and bring much to the discussion. On other occasions your propensity to want to argue for the sake of arguing makes your babble the equivalent of a bag of hot air. This is one of those other occasions.
If Bridgewater is 6'3" (which I don't doubt) 218lbs (which I don't believe he'll weigh) he'll move ahead of Manziel on my board.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Why? What's the weight line in the sand? >209 and he's better than Manziel, but 208 or less and he's worse?
I'm still old school I guess. I look at it from the stand point of durability. He was thin all year, I think he's a natural hard gainer & while he might get his weight up to 210 for the combine, he'll eventually settle back to his norm of 205 or less.
Manziel is short, 6'1" if he's lucky, but that same 205 looks better on him. More durable.
I know QBs get hurt all the time; big & small. I still think the smaller ones are more apt... I don't know that there is any data to prove it, I actually doubt it. But it makes sense. You don't send a boy to do a man's job.
You, & every Texans' fan know all too well what it's like to cross your fingers & hope your QB can play 16+ games a season, or if he gets hurt, that he can come back at the right time & finish. & we had a relatively "big" guy.
There are & there will be questions about his talent & his ability to lead. Don't need questions about his ability to stay on the field.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
So if Teddy weighs 205 and Manziel weighs 205, Manziel will be higher on your board?
What if Teddy is 6'1" and Manziel is just under 6'? Does Teddy go back ahead or is Manziel still better than Teddy because they both weigh 205?