Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Texans_Chick, Jul 24, 2007.
It is worth a read:
Published on Matt's DGDB&D blog.
Joyner tends to look at and assume too much on raw stats (historically) too much for my tastes....he was the guy predicting Carr is the next greatest QB based on his passer rating a year or so ago. A good read all the same...thanka
I agreed with him on some things...
not so much with his statistical analysis...
Didn't read all of it, and I'll get back to it later, but:
1) Do we really expect Faggins to show marked improvement this year? I didn't even know he was injured last year.
2) CC Brown average at FS??? Earl bad at coverage from SS position? Have I had this all backwards?
Work nights. Going to sleep. See ya.
Some of his article makes good sense, but I totally disagree with him on A. J., In past years when Carr could and would occasionally get the ball down field he produced and with Schaub I expect the vertical game to be much improved from last year.
The Earl/Brown debate makes our drafting an SS a little more obvious
I think 6-10 to 8-8 is a very fair assumption
KC's write up was pretty good. Although it would be nice he shared more of my optimism and gave us a little more good stuff. He didnt spout off the normal bs that media types do, and showed that he actually did some research.
I have to agree with him on his DRob analysis. He hasnt produced near as well as his rookie year. Hopefully he comes out of the slump this year, with better safety play and DL penetration.
I agree with his assesment of Faggins also. Petey is a good corner IMO, not a shutdown corner but good. He isnt very consistent at times though. HE will make some good plays and some great explosive plays. But then he gives up plays, and plays poorly. In his defence he was injured last year even when he came back. And again some can be attributed to poor safety and DL play.
I never supprted a Veggie pick in the draft, and MW was a great pick IMO. I am glad that he got some honest review here rather than the blah blah kicking selves in the but blah blah. He did give him his due as a rookie, which many people refuse to do becuase of his draft position. The one thing that he didnt mention about MW play is the lack penetration and production of the DT's on passing plays, it sure does help the DE if the OL has to worry about more than one guy and the MLB blitz.
All in all it was a good article, and he is right that we have a rough schedule. Based on our schedule 6-10 wouldnt upset me, of course I would rather see my 9-7 prediction come true. As long as we see improvement.
All in all a great read, thanks for the linky.
When your leading sack "artist" has 4 sacks...no DB's are going to look especially good. I think Dunta will be fine and Faggins is a good cover corner...but lousy in run support. Just watch Curtis Martin light him up in that last Jets game for a TD on a routine tackle.
The numbers Joyner used were strictly from '06. Carr & A.J. did hook up deep in '04, with Andre making some spectacular grabs. Which is why the results from '06 were so vexing to many, including Kubiak.
I don't see the mystery as to why Moulds is currently unsigned. Moulds can't get deep any longer, so basically he's limited to running short to intermediate patterns in the middle of the field. Eric is now a 3rd down WR, but he wants to be paid as a top #2 WR. I expect Moulds to sign somewhere after training camps break for little more than the vet minimum.
What Joyner failed to take into account in his analysis of Dunta is the Texans lack of a consistent pass rush. When a CB has to cover a reciever for an above average amount of time, the odds are in the WR's favor. Give Robinson a pass rush, and then let's look at the numbers. Plus, I'd like to look at WRs yards after catch matched up against Dunta. He's one of the premier tacklers in the league at his position. That has to account for something.
many of those catches were Carr's patented "jump ball lob".....the stats looked good but the passes were up for grabs on many of those occasions.
You should give a great athlete like AJ chances to make plays like that. He made them in '04, but not in the limited number of attempts in '05 & '06. Give great athletes the opportunity to make great plays.
sure, but if that is your only vertical game...you are stuck with a bad team dinking and dunking and hoping AJ comes down with jump balls (a jump ball means that it is anyone's ball)...sure it worked a few times (heck aj is a hell of an athlete he is just going to win some of those), but we need something to work year in-year out. Call that play once or twice a game on the sideline. If that is your only vertical game you have issues as an offense...as we all know.
IIRC, the deep balls this past year weren't thrown like the balls in '04 (if that makes any sense). This past season the ball appeared to have more of a rainbow arch to it, causing AJ to slow up or come back to it. It also gave the DBs time to react to the ball as well.
Hopefully we don't have that problem this year. From what little I've seen of Schaub's deep ball it appears it'll get the job done nicely.
Anytime AJ is singled up on a CB, the QB should have the option to check to a go route. Johnson 1 on 1 is the only mismatch this team currently has. In the past, the Texans have used Andre a bass ackwards manner. He should be going deep, drawing coverage and opening up the middle of the field for the other receivers. Not as glorified possession receiver, running 5 yard slants. The more AJ goes deep, the more opportunities for the rest of the receivers.
All of this complaining about Joyner's negatives sounds like a lot of excuse mongering to me.
"The DBs looked bad, but its because of the DL"
"The DL looked bad, but its because our star was moved around."
"MW looked bad, but its because he was a rookie."
Lets look at all of these in turn:
1. "The DBs were bad because of the DL"
I know there were a few times when it looked like the opposing QB literally had 20 seconds to choose where to throw. But I realistically believe that was more an exception thant he rule. What about all the other times?
Sure great DL can help an average DB corp look better, but saying that our DL was at fault for our DBs poor play seems to be a big excuse in my opinion. You may as well say our DBs were so bad the opposing QB could throw to anyone he pleased, thus negating any attempt at a pass rush.
The top 5 teams for least passing yards per game were:
And guess what? Only Miami ranked in the top 5 of for sacks. Chicago was the only other team on that list to rank in the top 10 in sacks.
None of those teams ranked in the top 5 in rushing defense.
The other two, about MW, also seem to be excuses. I dont think a first round pick should EVER be given a year to "adjust" unless he's a QB. If you are taken #1 overall, and you aren't a QB, you better be ready to contribute. Did his injury slow him down later in the year? Maybe
But the fact is he was publically attacked for taking plays off already (this was something we KNEW about before hand, too) and didn't make an impact until the Miami game.
Im as optimistic about the next season as anyone, but I think its important to keep a realistic viewpoint on where our team stands.
Its easy to say "our <insert position here> would be great if only <insert person or other position here> would have played better"
But-Every team can say that
Keep in mind that, as far as I can tell, this is only an excerpt from the Texans preview. I assume some of it would have made more sense in the context of the whole article.
I do agree that he is giving Faggins a free pass, especially since he said in an email that Faggins was a good nickel CB but not good enough to play CB2 in the NFL.
Also, as to the stuff about David Carr, Joyner has admitted before that he completely airballed on Carr.
I think the short and intermediate stuff is fine.
I think using him to mostly go deep is a waste....
A reciever like Andre needs to run an array of routes...
This is exactly the play where my loyalties started to turn for good.
Well, there you go. When it's a lot easier to run the ball against a defense, that defense's numbers against the pass will look a lot better than they should. Oakland defense was ran at more (542 attempts) than any team in the league. Indy was #2. Why pass the ball when you can run? It's no surprise that the Texans were effective against these 2 teams late in the season, with no passing game whatsoever.
If you've seen the majority of Texans games, you'd know that the Texans have lacked a consistent pass rush from the start. I think Robinson would be more aggressive in coverage if he knew the QB would have to get the ball out quicker. I could be wrong, and Dunta might never become a top corner. But, let's see a pass rush before making that judgement.
yeah...that happens once or twice a game
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