kastofsna's BCS-esque NFL Power Rankings

Discussion in 'The National Football League' started by kastofsna, Oct 31, 2007.

  1. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    So I've used two formulas, one that uses the team's record as a factor and one that doesn't, and sticks to the on-field performance mostly. Both formulas use the on-field performance heavily.

    For the on-field performance factors, I've used stats such as rushing offense and defese, passing offense and defense, net points scored, 3rd down % on offense and defense, and some other things. I lean towards overall efficiency more than anything when I determine the quality of a team, so that's why I've used those determining factors.

    The first rankings I'll show you is from the "Performance Only" ranking:

    1. New England: 635.609
    2. Indianapolis: 291.564
    3. Pittsburgh: 247.5175
    4. Dallas: 207.62926
    5. Philadelphia: 86.78706
    6. NY Giants: 83.9415
    7. Green Bay: 83.67997
    8. Baltimore: 79.69604
    9. Tennessee: 62.77224
    10. Tampa Bay: 38.67
    11. Washington: 37.51324
    12. San Diego: 35.45955
    13. Seattle: 27.15309
    14. Arizona: 23.60045
    15. Jacksonville: 1.5897
    16. Houston: -15.77625
    17. Kansas City: -23.20487
    18. New Orleans: -28.36184
    19. Carolina: -33.51439
    20. Detroit: -35.6109
    21. Oakland: -41.4897
    22. Minnesota: -42.9898
    23. Cincinnati: -55.3033
    24. Denver: -62.571
    25. Cleveland: -66.37103
    26. Miami: -83.28
    27. Chicago: -102.09875
    28. Atlanta: -116.70156
    29. San Francisco: -119.199204
    30. Buffalo: -121.0097
    31. NY Jets: -139.8375
    32. St. Louis: -161.117

    Remember, that's ignoring the record of the team. So there are some interesting surprises, such as Detroit being ranked very low despite their 5-2 record. Same with Cleveland. Or perhaps that's not surprising at all. And notice the massive difference between New England and the next team, Indianapolis.

    Okay, so now the next rankings are more like what the BCS uses, in that involves the team's record.

    1. New England: 633.919
    2. Indianapolis: 290.394
    3. Dallas: 177.071626
    4. Pittsburgh: 176.09025
    5. Green Bay: 70.825051
    6. NY Giants: 62.35425
    7. Baltimore: 45.102148
    8. Tennessee: 44.228016
    9. Philadelphia: 37.021842
    10. Seattle: 26.25091
    11. San Diego: 19.90506
    12. Tampa Bay: 18.1815
    13. Arizona: 10.36035
    14. Jacksonville: 8.09676
    15. Houston: -6.06375
    16. Oakland: -11.95194
    17. Minnesota: -12.35234
    18. New Orleans: -12.358632
    19. Kansas City: -13.585803
    20. Washington: -14.585624
    21. Atlanta: -16.710408
    22. NY Jets: -17.49375
    23. Carolina: -19.433414
    24. Detroit: -25.75755
    25. Denver: -27.027
    26. Cleveland: -38.246722
    27. Chicago: -38.431875
    28. San Francisco: -41.451696
    29. Buffalo: -52.04199
    30. Cincinnati: -52.40473125
    31. Miami: -83.28
    32. St. Louis: -161.117

    This one looks more accurate. Again, New England holds a massive lead over everyone else. Add up Indy, Dallas and Pittsburgh's outputs and you barely reach New England's.
     
  2. TexansLucky13

    TexansLucky13 53d Signal Batt

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    Damn, we are almost out of the negatives. Work harder!

    The Patriots are just toooooo good.
     
    Brando likes this.
  3. powerfuldragon

    powerfuldragon g'mornin to you

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    texans are too high. i'm out.
     
  4. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    be happy in knowing that you're the best of the negative teams.
     
  5. TexansLucky13

    TexansLucky13 53d Signal Batt

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    I wouldn't trade that for an absolute value at this point, hehe.

    :texflag:
     
  6. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

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    Is this really why we wear "Battle Red"?
     
  7. nero THE zero

    nero THE zero Hall of Fame

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    haha
     
  8. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    So all the numbers you've looked at so far haven't taken strength of schedule into place. But that's because I didn't know of a decent enough SOS formula to use.

    So what I decided to do was award points for wins and losses based on where the team was ranked in my BCS-esque rankings. For example, a win over New England would net you 32 points, and a loss to St. Louis would lose 32 points. Likewise, a win over St. Louis gets you 1 point and a loss to New England only loses 1 point. And so on and so on. This made the rankings more true to real life I think.

    Here's what the "quality win-loss" formula came up with:

    1. Indianapolis: 16.571
    2. Green Bay: 11.857
    3. New England: 11.500
    4. Tennessee: 9.000
    5. Jacksonville: 9.000
    6. Dallas: 7.857
    7. NY Giants: 7.375
    8. Washington: 6.143
    9. Detroit: 5.286
    10. San Diego: 3.429
    11. Carolina: 2.714
    12. Denver: 2.572
    13. Buffalo: 2.143
    14. Cleveland: 1.571
    15. Pittsburgh: 0.571
    16. Kansas City: 0.286
    17. Tampa Bay: 0.125
    18. Seattle: -0.714
    19. New Orleans: -0.915
    20. Chicago: -1.625
    21. Philadelphia: -3.143
    22. Cincinnati: -3.285
    23. San Francisco: -3.429
    24. Arizona: -3.572
    25. Houston: -3.750
    26. Minnesota: -6.000
    27. Baltimore: -6.857
    28. Atlanta: -9.716
    29. Oakland: -11.143
    30. NY Jets: -13.625
    31. Miami: -13.625
    32. St. Louis: -15.250


    By itself, the QWL formula is a pretty decent way to rank teams. Of course, it'd be hard to argue that Green Bay is better than New England. So we should just go ahead and add those numbers up with the BCS-esque rankings to get a more complete view of each team.


    Here's the results of the QWL formula when added to the BCS-esque rankings:

    1. New England: 645.419
    2. Indianapolis: 306.965
    3. Dallas: 184.928626
    4. Pittsburgh: 176.66125
    5. Green Bay: 82.682051
    6. NY Giants: 69.72925
    7. Tennessee: 53.228016
    8. Baltimore: 38.245148
    9. Philadelphia: 33.878842
    10. Seattle: 25.53691
    11. San Diego: 23.33406
    12. Tampa Bay: 18.3065
    13. Jacksonville: 17.09676
    14. Arizona: 6.78835
    15. Washington: -8.442624
    16. Houston: -9.81375
    17. New Orleans: -13.273632
    18. Kansas City: -13.299803
    19. Carolina: -16.719414
    20. Minnesota: -18.35234
    21. Detroit: -20.47155
    22. Oakland: -23.09494
    23. Denver: -24.455
    24. Atlanta: -26.426408
    25. NY Jets: -31.11875
    26. Cleveland: -36.675722
    27. Chicago: -40.056875
    28. San Francisco: -44.880696
    29. Buffalo: -49.89899
    30. Cincinnati: -55.68973125
    31. Miami: -96.905
    32. St. Louis: -176.367

    This is probably the most accurate view at how each team has played throughout the course of the season. New England still has a mammoth lead, of course.

    I was surprised at Green Bay's QWL. They've played and beaten some good teams. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, hasn't really played anyone, and has losses to two fairly low ranked teams.

    Also I decided to look at conference strength. The common thought is that the AFC is far better than the NFC. Well, if we just go by average rank, it's surprisingly close.

    The average AFC team is ranked 16.625. While the average NFC team is ranked 16.375. Only a 0.25 difference.

    Of course the comical part is when you go by average points. Obviously New England and Indianapolis have such a huge amount of points, that the AFC has a ridiculous edge over the NFC in points.

    AFC: 919.9975478 points
    NFC: 56.85999 points

    In fact, the average point total for the AFC teams is 57.49984674, which is higher than the NFC's total points. A clear-cut case of a league being top-heavy.
     


  9. TexansLucky13

    TexansLucky13 53d Signal Batt

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    That's awesome!

    Packers vs. Patriots Rematch Super Bowl
     
  10. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    Is there a way you could include strengtho f schedule into your ratinsg? Because as it stands, sure NE has played the best ball because they've
    a) run up the score
    b) played crappy teams

    The colts would be much closer if you look at the records of the teams they've played
     
  11. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    new england's on-field performance almost triples what indy has done. running up the score or not, that's amazing.
     
  12. GoPats

    GoPats Veteran

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    Does this mean we're in the Rose Bowl?
     
  13. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    Bored at work, so let's look at the average ranking for the divisions:

    AFC East: 116.874065
    AFC South: 91.8690065
    NFC East: 70.0235235
    AFC North: 30.63523618
    NFC North: 0.9503215
    AFC West: -9.37892075
    NFC South: -9.5282385
    NFC West: -47.230609

    The most impressive thing to note here is that the AFC East is the highest ranking division, despite having 3 teams ranked 25 or lower. Really just shows how ridiculous of a lead New England has. And the NFC West is the worst division again. A trend we've seen for a while.
     
  14. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    Let's go all out and look at the matchups of ranked teams this week.

    I figured the best way to have a "top ranked" teams would be just to include every team in that has a final number that's not negative. So that means there are 14 ranked teams. Here's the ranked teams playing each other this week:

    1) New England - 2) Indianapolis
    3) Dallas - 9) Philadelphia
    4) Pittsburgh - 8) Baltimore
    12) Tampa Bay - 14) Arizona

    Yup, Bucs vs. Cards is battle between two ranked teams. Everyone will be watching!
     
  15. TexansLucky13

    TexansLucky13 53d Signal Batt

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    You have way too much free time...

    :tease:
     
  16. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    yeah blame my employer.
     
  17. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    updated the rankings.

    1. New England: 308.630
    2. Indianapolis: 256.880
    3. Dallas: 199.134
    4. Green Bay: 128.125
    5. Pittsburgh: 127.075
    6. Tennessee: 108.864
    7. NY Giants: 87.939
    8. Washington: 65.113
    9. Tampa Bay: 63.448
    10. Jacksonville: 58.495
    11. Detroit: 42.774
    12. New Orleans: 22.538
    13. Cleveland: 21.826
    14. Carolina: 9.100
    15. Seattle: -6.625
    16. Philadelphia: -9.608
    17. San Diego: -25.138
    18. Arizona: -25.764
    19. Houston: -30.365
    20. Denver: -33.748
    21. Kansas City: -35.325
    22. Minnesota: -42.988
    23. Buffalo: -43.275
    24. Chicago: -47.823
    25. Baltimore: -58.925
    26. Atlanta: -97.433
    27. Cincinnati: -97.738
    28. Oakland: -106.999
    29. San Francisco: -138.093
    30. Miami: -161.680
    31. St. Louis: -194.980
    32. NY Jets: -214.737

    tweaked things a bit. the gap between New England and the field has gotten smaller.
     
  18. TexansLucky13

    TexansLucky13 53d Signal Batt

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    I am confused as to how they lost their huge lead after beating the second best team. Is this based off of Brady's interceptions?
     
  19. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    i bet it's because they allowed a lot more offense than usual, and didn't go as crazy on offense.
     
  20. powerfuldragon

    powerfuldragon g'mornin to you

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    this time, i like where you placed the texans.
     

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