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Jake Matthews now #1

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Besides his last name the greatest thing about Jake is his versatility, both tackle positions & a knockout LG. So for his specific positions his skill set may be graded out as tops among all prospects but we all know which position can raise & lower a franchise quicker than any, lol.
 

eriadoc

Texan-American
We all know this is about Keenum. Please take that to the Keenum threads.
Actually, it's more about Carr than Keenum. Team gave the man 5 years to prove he wasn't it. And while fans largely agreed with each other that the last year was stupid, they didn't seem to mind giving him the first 3 at a minimum (myself included). I would hope we've learned from that.

This draft gives me a 2002 vibe where a bunch of QBs will be taken and they might all end up sucking. So if they take a QB in this draft, I want them to be willing to take another in 2015 if the need is there. Personally, I want them to take the best player available, whoever that is. If Bridgewater is at the top of everyone's board, then take Bridgewater. Don't force the pick, though. And recognize that the best rated QB of 2014 may not even be close to the best rated QB of 2015.
 

The1ApplePie

Hall of Fame
It's not written anywhere. However, 75% of the starting QB's in the league were drafted in the 1st round. Now, can you find guys in other rounds? Sure. But the odds are against you.

I went through the numbers in a different thread last week. The odds of finding a franchise QB are astronomically higher in the 1st round and they get even better the higher you go up the draft order. Despite the bust rate being very high, it's still much lower than the bust rate for QB's drafted outside the 1st.

People love to point out Brees or Wilson, which is fine, but let's not act like that's the norm. It is a rare occurrence. For the most part, if you want a starting QB, you're using your 1st round pick to get him.

With all that said, I do agree with you about BPA. We should not take a QB just because he's a QB. He should be the best player. Taking a QB just because he's a QB will only add to that bust rate.
Guys like Kaepernick and Wilson were taken later, but were seen as developmental prospects at the time. Kaep sat on the bench his first year, as Wilson was supposed to do, before it turned out Flynn sucked.

Romo was undrafted, Brady was a 6th rounder. Both were expected to ride the bench, maybe develop, maybe not. But history dictates that a good QB has to come in the first round, usually high.

There isn't an NFL starting QB on the roster right now. Does the fanbase really want to ride out 2014 with two great OTs and Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, McCown, or Sam Bradford at QB?
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
This is where trade scenarios come in. A QB centric team who has zeroed in on TB (say Cleveland) who fears that the the top 3 QBs will be off the board by it's 5th pick might be willing to pay dearly to move up to 1 or 2. They have 5,24,37,69,76,101,120,133,165 and 197. While there might be some risk moving back to 5, there would be an outstanding player there and more picks, particularly high ones, increase our chances of filling more gaps with quality prospects.

I'm of the opinion that TB may be the best of this years deep crop of good QBs, but I don't think any have GREAT or ELITE expectations. We have good QBs who can't overcome poor line play and better players on IR. Between IR players returning and four top draft choices, I think we can return to the exciting team we were expecting.

Think about it. Would you rather have TB or Matthews AND Bortles AND a top CB or DE in addition to our 33 pick (S?)?

ps the old trade value book says #1-1=3000; #1-5=1700, #1-24=740, #2-5=530, #3-5=245, #3-12=210,#4-5=96... Two first and a fifth would balance plus a premium to jump QB hungry teams like Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, or a possible trade with St. Louis by Minnesota or Tennessee.
yep see my mock with a trade to Cleveland. The value has even become greater since we now have #1 pick. Even if no trade we should get a very high quality starter.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Your first sentence is the issue Badboy as you think using a sports website big board in December is a legitimate Guide to making a viable decision on draft strategy. That is something I would expect from Texian.
You seriously do not think we can project a QB at #34 based on known info? If not, why are you even in this forum? Of course players move up and down but that is the beauty of this thing.

Also you stated no one would be there in second to protect so how did you arrive at that decision?
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
MSR

Clowney, Barr, or Bridgewater are the only picks to make in that position. Even with the mythical trade down, taking a RT in the first simply makes no sense. Pass rusher and QB are the two most important positions on the team, the Texans have one pass rusher and no QB. Take a RT at the top of the 3rd, problem solved.The Texans need a starting QB, not a 3rd round project or "Less Talented Mark Sanchez" AJ McCarrin
Based on your hours of watching college tackles and research please identify the right tackle you would so easily find available at top of third that starts.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
This is such a great post, it hits the nail on the head.

BPA for Texans has to be a QB they can insert into starting role & become face of the franchise. I get the whole maximize your pick leverage argument but if TB or Bortles is your guy, sign him & let's move this franchise forward.

First thing is finding a new coach then both underclassman have to declare bypassing Senior season for NFL.
Then that is not a true BPA selection but based upon need.
 

Playoffs

Hall of Fame
I don't care what the scheme is, you don't take a RT at 1-1..
Can you guarantee Teddy & Clowney won't be busts? At this early point, I'd gauge that both have a significant bust potential compared to Matthews. I'd rather have the guy who's filling his spot nicely in 3 years versus a guy like Sam Bradford who I was "supposed" to draft in that slot but has you thinking about replacing him 3/4 years later.

If you don't think RT was important to Kubiak's offense this year you weren't watching Derek Newton*. Maybe RT will be less important in the new OC's offense, but I doubt it...

Examining Pressure: Are Left Tackles Overvalued?
...
Final Word

There’s a lot to digest here, but it can be summed up rather quickly. The right tackle should no longer be viewed as the athletic inferior to the left tackle and teams should change their team-building strategy to make this happen. Today’s passing NFL makes it a necessity to have two competent pass protectors on the edge and when scouting players, if a tackle is deemed to not be good enough to play left tackle, well you’re better off just putting him at guard rather than exploiting him at right tackle. There’s no hiding — defensive coordinators will find him.
* Derek Newton is rated 71st/78 OTs overall and 74th/78 in pass protection. (>25% snaps) by PFF.

I get the whole draft value argument, but I'd rather avoid Amobi Okoye over slot value. And I personally think RTs are pretty important pieces. At this point, though, it's all guesses on top of guesses imo.
 

Marcus

Windmill cancer survivor
Contributor's Club
There isn't an NFL starting QB on the roster right now. Does the fanbase really want to ride out 2014 with two great OTs and Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, McCown, or Sam Bradford at QB?
No, but I'm perfectly happy riding out 2014 with 2 great OTs, and QBs they get in the 2nd round.

Does the fanbase really want to ride out 2014 with a QB reach with the 1st overall pick?

Not me.
 

Dutchrudder

Hall of Fame
I really don't think the Browns are trading up for the #1 pick. From what I have read, Mike Lombardi really likes Derek Carr, and he could be their pick, which probably won't require them moving up at all.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
This conversation probably fits better here:


As WolverineFan said in another thread why not take Bridgewater or Bortles 1st and then a RT 2nd?

Bridgewater is not Luck but Matthews is not Pace or Boselli either.
Which one is closer to that standard though? I think Matthews has a better chance of approaching Boselli than Bridgewater has of getting within spitting distance of Luck.

I'm hoping we get to deal out of the top spot and pick up a few extra picks along the way but if we don't then that's how I would do it.
Well the real question isn't two unattainables, it is the drop off in what is attainable.

So we have no Luck or Boselli in this draft. What is the drop off from Bridgewater/Bortles to Mettenberger v. Matthews to an Erving or Richardson?

There are rare exceptions but usually the drop off on QBs is a cliff whereas the drop off on OT's is a relative gentle slope. We're talking about getting another guy akin to Duane Brown v. getting one like Brock Osweiller, Jimmy Clauson, Pat White, etc. Virtually every year there are OTs taken after the top of the 2nd who pan out while only once in a while do the QBs pan out.
The reason I am not including Clowney in the discussion is primarily because of injury concern.
 

The1ApplePie

Hall of Fame
Based on your hours of watching college tackles and research please identify the right tackle you would so easily find available at top of third that starts.
Can you identify a first round RT that didn't start his career as a failed LT? Guys like Fisher and Jockel played RT, but with the intent of moving them to left the following year. Weren't drafted to move to the money position five years later when the current franchise tackle got old, which seems to be a justification for taking Matthews.

Again, this board wouldn't even be considering an RT first overall if this name wasn't Matthews.
 

The1ApplePie

Hall of Fame
No, but I'm perfectly happy riding out 2014 with 2 great OTs, and QBs they get in the 2nd round.

Does the fanbase really want to ride out 2014 with a QB reach with the 1st overall pick?

Not me.
A second round QB will most likely ride the bench for half a season, more if he is a raw developmental guy.

So, back to crappy veteran QB we go. If they do throw them in, we could have the next Clausen or Hennie.
 

Texian

Hall of Fame
IMHO I don't think Mettenberger gets past #18. And with Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Tennessee all currently picking in the Top 10 I do doubt seriously if Mett gets out of the the Top 10.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
IMHO I don't think Mettenberger gets past #18. And with Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Tennessee all currently picking in the Top 10 I do doubt seriously if Mett gets out of the the Top 10.
How many QBs are you projecting in the first half of the 1st? and in the 1st overall?
 

Blake

MMQB
At this early point, I'd gauge that both have a significant bust potential compared to Matthews. I'd rather have the guy who's filling his spot nicely in 3 years versus a guy like Sam Bradford who I was "supposed" to draft in that slot but has you thinking about replacing him 3/4 years later.
I get the whole draft value argument, but I'd rather avoid Amobi Okoye over slot value. And I personally think RTs are pretty important pieces. At this point, though, it's all guesses on top of guesses imo.
I remember the same things being said about Robert Gallery. There are no guarantees in life. Taking a tackle over a QB or DE (especially this team) doesnt make alot of sense unless you have a crystal ball and can see the future.
 

Playoffs

Hall of Fame
A second round QB will most likely ride the bench for half a season, more if he is a raw developmental guy...
Or he could be like Russell Wilson? :kitten:

It's a deep QB draft, you never know... Plus, whatever HC/OC we hire might be a guy who'll roll with a rookie.
 

Dutchrudder

Hall of Fame
Can you guarantee Teddy & Clowney won't be busts? At this early point, I'd gauge that both have a significant bust potential compared to Matthews. I'd rather have the guy who's filling his spot nicely in 3 years versus a guy like Sam Bradford who I was "supposed" to draft in that slot but has you thinking about replacing him 3/4 years later.

If you don't think RT was important to Kubiak's offense this year you weren't watching Derek Newton*. Maybe RT will be less important in the new OC's offense, but I doubt it...

Examining Pressure: Are Left Tackles Overvalued?


* Derek Newton is rated 71st/78 OTs overall and 74th/78 in pass protection. (>25% snaps) by PFF.

I get the whole draft value argument, but I'd rather avoid Amobi Okoye over slot value. And I personally think RTs are pretty important pieces. At this point, though, it's all guesses on top of guesses imo.
I'm not saying RT isn't an important position, more that it's not worth a number 1 pick, or really a top 20 pick. If you guys want to spend a late 1st on it, I could go for that. But if we're talking about Matthews, then we are talking a top 5 pick at this point, and I think it's a waste to spend that kind of a pick on a guy who will be the de facto RT.

There's no question this organization has tried to address the RT position on the cheap. Derek Newton was a 7th round pick, Brenan Williams was a late 3rd with injury history, David Quessenberry (who may not be a OT in the NFL) was a 6th, Ryan Harris was a street FA that had a bad injury history, Rashad Butler was a late 3rd round pick FA that was OK, but not great.

But let's not get caught up in the fact that Smithiak couldn't fix the position, other teams address it without spending 1st round picks on it, and that's why I'm saying we should be able to do the same.

The Patriots current RT Marcus Cannon was a 5th round pick.
The Lions are tied this year for the least amount of sacks given up with 16 total, and their RT this year is UDFA LaAdrian Waddle from Texas Tech.
Up until last year, 4th round pick Jermon Bushrod was starting for the Saints. This week the Saints are starting rookie 2nd round pick Teron Armistead at LT, so we'll see how he does in action. Their current RT is 7th round pick Zach Strief.
The Bears have given up the 3rd least sacks this year, and they are starting rookie 5th round pick Jordan Mills at RT. Can you believe that? A team with Jay Cutler at QB is giving up the 3rd least sacks in the league. Crazy...

Other teams address RT on the cheap through Free Agency. The Colts got Gosder Cherilus, the Rams got Jake Long, the Ravens picked up Bryant McKinnie (2 years 7m) for their Super Bowl run last year. It's really not that uncommon, and teams do have success with it.

I could go on, but my point is that RT really shouldn't require a 1st round pick to be a competent player. If we can't do that with our 3-1 pick or later, then we need a new GM. If Duane Brown was in the last year of his deal, I would be much more open to the idea, but he's not. He's here for the next few years, so we don't need a LT in waiting.
 
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Texian

Hall of Fame
How many QBs are you projecting in the first half of the 1st? and in the 1st overall?
If Bortles and Bridgewater declare I expect there gone. Add Manziel, Carr and Mettenberger as possible 1st half and/or 1st rd QBs and Murray and McCarron as potential 1st RD QBs. With the exceptions of Newton in 2011 and Luck & Griffin in 2012 the 2014 is shaping up to be a better overall QB class than the 11 draft and as good as the 12 draft. In those drafts 4 QBs where selected in the first rd. Being that the 2013 was such a poor draft for QBs the 2014 shaping up as bigger than normal and a better than average class of QBs, this could be a catchup draft on QBs for teams needing a QB. 7 of the top 10 teams could use a QB so this could be a top heavy QB draft. and with that I think I have covered all the bases. I can see teams like Arizona, Chicago and Cleveland trading up in RD 1 for a QB. And the Jets having a do over.
 
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bah007

Hall of Fame
How many QBs are you projecting in the first half of the 1st? and in the 1st overall?
Question wasn't directed at me but I'll give my opinion. The ranges are very wide because all it takes is one team to fall in love and take a guy high.

Bridgewater - Top 3
Bortles - Between 3-15
Mettenberger - Between 10-25
Carr - Between 10-35
Manziel - Between 15-40
McCarron - Between 30-45
Hundley - I think he goes back to school. But I think he would go in the top half of the 2nd.
Boyd - 2nd round

Everyone else is 3rd round or later. Murray may sneak into the 2nd if Hundley goes back to school.

I could see a max of three QBs going in the top 15 and four going in the top 20. Four or five total going in the first round.

Bridgewater, Bortles, and Mettenberger all as first round locks. Carr a highly likely first rounder. That's four. So five if Manziel slides in.
 

Texian

Hall of Fame
I remember the same things being said about Robert Gallery. There are no guarantees in life. Taking a tackle over a QB or DE (especially this team) doesnt make alot of sense unless you have a crystal ball and can see the future.
The lesson to be learned about Robert Gallery is don't draft OL with little feet, they can't anchor.
 

Hervoyel

BUENO!
What's the point of having a RT if he has no one worth protecting?

What's the point in having the first pick if you can't confidently draft an above average (at least) starter at multiple positions?

What's the point in drafting if you aren't willing to take a little risk?

We have been drafting ****ty in the later rounds for years. Most teams find their RT in free agency or later rounds of the draft. There's no reason why the Texans can't do that, or shouldn't try. You rarely see a team spend 2 first round picks on both tackle positions, because it's just too damn much to spend on a position that should be filled for less resources. If you can't find a competent RT in rounds 3-1 though 7 then you need a new GM (which I am in favor of!).

Think of it this way, how much does the average RT cost in the NFL? How much dose the average strong-side pass rusher cost? How much does the average QB cost?

Figure out where to spend picks based on scarcity and costs so you don't over-allocate resources to one position. Picking Matthews, IMO, is overallocating resources to the OT position. It would be a reactionary pick due to the poor play at RT, rather than a calculated pick based on salary-cap football.
You can get someone worth protecting in the second round. Your RT (and future LT) can protect that guy and guys who come in the years after (if that proves necessary) for years to come. This RT/LT comes from a family of NFL players with epic longevity and quality.

You insist on looking at Matthews at 1-1 as a pick for a RT and wasted opportunity right now when in reality it's an investment in two positions (one now and the other later). You still have three positions on the line that are filled with your late-round bargain guys. You will lose Duane Brown at some point and when you do you'll slide Matthews over to take his place.

It's the safe play and if the trade down isn't there (which I would very much like to see. This is a draft with no clear 1-1 player) then I think it's a good pick. By the time you're having to pay Matthews what he's worth you'll probably be seeing Duane Brown go out the door for more money or Duane Brown in decline and pointing him toward the door.

You want to gamble on the guy you take in the first round. I would prefer to gamble on the guy I take in the second round. Granted it's all a gamble to some degree and we both know that.
 

Marcus

Windmill cancer survivor
Contributor's Club
I'm not saying RT isn't an important position, more that it's not worth a number 1 pick, or really a top 20 pick. If you guys want to spend a late 1st on it, I could go for that. But if we're talking about Matthews, then we are talking a top 5 pick at this point, and I think it's a waste to spend that kind of a pick on a guy who will be the de facto RT.

There's no question this organization has tried to address the RT position on the cheap. Derek Newton was a 7th round pick, Brenan Williams was a late 3rd with injury history, David Quessenberry (who may not be a OT in the NFL) was a 6th, Ryan Harris was a street FA that had a bad injury history, Rashad Butler was a late 3rd round pick FA that was OK, but not great.

But let's not get caught up in the fact that Smithiak couldn't fix the position, other teams address it without spending 1st round picks on it, and that's why I'm saying we should be able to do the same.

The Patriots Matt Light and Sebastian Vollmer were both mid-2nd picks.
The Lions are tied this year for the least amount of sacks given up with 16 total, and their RT this year is UDFA LaAdrian Waddle from Texas Tech.
Up until last year, 4th round pick Jermon Bushrod was starting for the Saints. This week the Saints are starting rookie 2nd round pick Teron Armistead at LT, so we'll see how he does in action. Their current RT is 7th round pick Zach Strief.
The Bears have given up the 3rd least sacks this year, and they are starting rookie 5th round pick Jordan Mills at RT. Can you believe that? A team with Jay Cutler at QB is giving up the 3rd least sacks in the league. Crazy...

Other teams address RT on the cheap through Free Agency. The Colts got Gosder Cherilus, the Rams got Jake Long, the Ravens picked up Bryant McKinnie (2 years 7m) for their Super Bowl run last year. It's really not that uncommon, and teams do have success with it.

I could go on, but my point is that RT really shouldn't require a 1st round pick to be a competent player. If we can't do that with our 3-1 pick or later, then we need a new GM. If Duane Brown was in the last year of his deal, I would be much more open to the idea, but he's not. He's here for the next few years, so we don't need a LT in waiting.
I get all of that. Bet you seem to missing the point that you take the BPA on the board, no matter what the position is.

Answer me this. Why would you want to risk reaching for a QB with the 1st overall, if you think Rick Smith is as bad as you say he is? Why would you want to reach for a player at all with the 1st pick?
 

Playoffs

Hall of Fame
http://walterfootball.com/draft2014.php
1. Houston Texans: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

I wrote this in my NFL Power Rankings regarding the No. 1 pick: Mel Kiper appeared on Sunday NFL Countdown and said that the No. 1 overall pick will come down to three players: Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Barr and Jake Matthews. If the 2014 NFL Draft were held today, Clowney would probably be the pick. But this reminds me of the 2011 NFL Draft. Both Kiper and Todd McShay thought a defensive lineman would be the top choice (Kiper said Nick Fairley, while McShay suggested Da'Quan Bowers), yet the Panthers ultimately fell in love with Cam Newton.

The same thing will probably happen to the Texans unless they sign Jay Cutler or trade for Kirk Cousins. Houston will have five months to become smitten with Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr (probably not because of David's failure), Johnny Manziel or even Brett Hundley. One of those signal-callers will probably be the No. 1 pick.

Given how important the quarterback position is, Teddy Bridgewater or another signal-caller will the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, barring an acquisition of Cutler or Cousins, or something like that. There's really no discussion. Clowney, Barr and Matthews wouldn't get Houston's franchise back into the playoffs. A franchise quarterback would. The Texans will talk themselves into drafting one of them.
 

Dutchrudder

Hall of Fame
I get all of that. Bet you seem to missing the point that you take the BPA on the board, no matter what the position is.

Answer me this. Why would you want to risk reaching for a QB with the 1st overall, if you think Rick Smith is as bad as you say he is? Why would you want to reach for a player at all with the 1st pick?
You seem to be missing the point where I never said you had to take BPA no matter what the position is. That may be your draft philosophy, but it's not mine and I wouldn't advocate it because no one would ever follow that 100% of the time anyways. You have to be able to weigh BPA vs Need and find a happy-medium.

Who said it had to be a QB at 1-1? I'd rather have Jadaveon Clowney, a top notch freak athlete pass-rushing prospect, than a RT (be it Matthews or Lewan or whomever). If Bridgewater grades out as a top 5 pick, and is expected to be a franchise NFL QB, then yeah, I'd take him. Why reach a few picks for a RT, when you can reach about the same relative amount of draft slots for a QB?

I don't really care if someone has the QB rated as a 92, but 4 other players are rated a 93-95. The QB position trumps all in this era of the NFL. If he's your guy, you take him, whether the draftniks think he should be the 1st pick, 10th pick, or 50th pick. It's only a "reach" based on a bunch of peoples projections at this point, but if the guy works out, then in retrospect it won't be a reach, and it won't really matter. It's even more of a gamble to trade back a few picks, expecting your guy to be there, only to have him taken a slot ahead of you because you got cute with the draft board projections.

We still have a lot of evaluating to go, but regardless of what these guys do in the combine, I think taking a RT in the top 20 is a waste. We need a QB or pass rusher with our first pick, there are plenty to grade and evaluate before we settle on one. Those are the two premium positions in this league, and what I think we should be spending our highest pick on.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
Question wasn't directed at me but I'll give my opinion. The ranges are very wide because all it takes is one team to fall in love and take a guy high.

Bridgewater - Top 3
Bortles - Between 3-15
Mettenberger - Between 10-25
Carr - Between 10-35
Manziel - Between 15-40
McCarron - Between 30-45
Hundley - I think he goes back to school. But I think he would go in the top half of the 2nd.
Boyd - 2nd round

Everyone else is 3rd round or later. Murray may sneak into the 2nd if Hundley goes back to school.

I could see a max of three QBs going in the top 15 and four going in the top 20. Four or five total going in the first round.

Bridgewater, Bortles, and Mettenberger all as first round locks. Carr a highly likely first rounder. That's four. So five if Manziel slides in.
That looks far more likely to me. You have to go back 31 years to find a 6 QB 1st round and there has only been 1 5 QB draft since. The 6 QB draft wasn't one where there were questions whether any of them would be franchise QBs, it was an incredible talent draft with 3 future HOFers taken. That includes several years following QB poor drafts to where none were taken in the 1st. Four is a heavy QB draft.

IF all these QBs are taken then the talent at OT and elsewhere will get pushed down.
 

bah007

Hall of Fame
That looks far more likely to me. You have to go back 31 years to find a 6 QB 1st round and there has only been 1 5 QB draft since. The 6 QB draft wasn't one where there were questions whether any of them would be franchise QBs, it was an incredible talent draft with 3 future HOFers taken. That includes several years following QB poor drafts to where none were taken in the 1st. Four is a heavy QB draft.

IF all these QBs are taken then the talent at OT and elsewhere will get pushed down.
I think it's highly likely that Bridgewater and Bortles both go top 10. Mettenberger goes top 20. And Carr goes at the end of the 1st.

Once the top two guys are gone teams are going to be more likely to go BPA and wait it out and try for a QB in the 2nd unless they are just smitten with a certain prospect. Manziel is the wildcard. He could be the 3rd QB or the 6th QB off the board.
 

b0ng

Bad Hombre
That looks far more likely to me. You have to go back 31 years to find a 6 QB 1st round and there has only been 1 5 QB draft since. The 6 QB draft wasn't one where there were questions whether any of them would be franchise QBs, it was an incredible talent draft with 3 future HOFers taken. That includes several years following QB poor drafts to where none were taken in the 1st. Four is a heavy QB draft.

IF all these QBs are taken then the talent at OT and elsewhere will get pushed down.
You have to take into account that QB contracts are extremely cheap in the draft now, thanks to the new CBA. They also include a team friendly 5th year option if they are drafted in the first round (I believe). I think this is going to lead to more questionable QB picks in the first round than previous years. Hell there were 4 QB's taken in 2010 (Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder) and for the most part, leading up to that draft most people figured that it might come down to Newton vs Gabbert but that it wasn't really that standout of a class.
 

WolverineFan

Hall of Fame
You can get someone worth protecting in the second round.
Can you? Certainly. But the odds are not in your favor.


You want to gamble on the guy you take in the first round. I would prefer to gamble on the guy I take in the second round. Granted it's all a gamble to some degree and we both know that.
Passing on Bridgewater in the 1st to take Mettenberger/McCarron/etc in the 2nd is just as much a gamble as just drafting Bridgewater.

Matthews seems to be the key here. Many people would like Matthews + another QB than Bridgewater + another OT. I don't see much difference between Matthews and the other OT's available.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
You have to take into account that QB contracts are extremely cheap in the draft now, thanks to the new CBA.
That really only affects the top 10 picks and applies to all positions. You could equally say teams are now freed up to take positions they wouldn't have considered before in the top 10 because of the expense. For instance there wouldn't even be a conversation about Matthews under the old cba unless he was going to play LT immediately.
 

DexmanC

Hall of Fame
Tradayveon Clowney could be better than Mario Williams, who was a #1 overall selection; or, he could be Glenn Dorsey, who was drafted 5th overall and has 6 QB sacks in 6 seasons.

The draft is a crap shoot. I'd aim for a QB, because if it hits, your team will win year-in-and-year-out.
 
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badboy

Hall of Fame
I think it should be remembered that Texans desperately needing a LT were willing to gamble and trade down with risk of still getting a OT a few years ago. I remember Kubiak saying that he had left the room & upon returning discovered the GM was considering another trade down & Kubiak insisted on pulling the deal for Brown. Yes, there has to be a team willing to trade but with our needs we should be able to negotiate enough to better the team. A trade does not have to be RG3 type to be beneficial for both teams.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
I think it should be remembered that Texans desperately needing a LT were willing to gamble and trade down with risk of still getting a OT a few years ago. I remember Kubiak saying that he had left the room & upon returning discovered the GM was considering another trade down & Kubiak insisted on pulling the deal for Brown. Yes, there has to be a team willing to trade but with our needs we should be able to negotiate enough to better the team. A trade does not have to be RG3 type to be beneficial for both teams.
You need to discuss that with Texian. He has it on reliable speculation that Gibbs had full control on that pick in his contract.
 

WolverineFan

Hall of Fame
Yes, there has to be a team willing to trade but with our needs we should be able to negotiate enough to better the team. A trade does not have to be RG3 type to be beneficial for both teams.
Agreed. We don't have to steal three 1st round picks off a team for the trade to be successful. If we don't like anybody at #1, we could trade back to #6 or so and take the #38 this year and a 2nd next year. People will look at the draft value chart and say we cheated ourselves, but the value of the pick is all about the talent available in the draft. Trading back 5 spots (from a spot you already don't want to be in) and grabbing an extra 2nd this year and a 2nd next year is a huge win for me. I could care less what the "value" chart says about it.
 

Texian

Hall of Fame
You need to discuss that with Texian. He has it on reliable speculation that Gibbs had full control on that pick in his contract.
That's a fact Cak! It was Gibbs decision to draft Brown. Haven't you heard the Texans FO has been complaining and bellyaching to NFLN that the coaches have had to much say in the draft?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
If I truly think Bortles is a franchise guy then I take him #1. Why would you trade picks this year and your 1st next year for a guy that you could just take #1?

I still don't understand that scenario and you've laid it out many times before. You can use your 1st this year on a QB or you can use your 2nd this year and 1st next year on a QB. Why would you choose the 2nd option?
Because BoB wants to win now.

By doing a trade like this you have the abilty to fill the 2 hardest positions there are to fill on a team in one draft. QB/Pass Rusher. If you hit on those picks and add in Watt you become a dominant team for the next decade and overtake Indy/Luck at the top of the division. Rick has to take chances to catch up with Luck/Indy. With that said,

I wouldn't draft a QB this yr if it was me. I would wait until the loaded 2015 QB draft. The way I see it Rick has these options

1. The option stated above
2 trade down, best option if a trade partner can be found.
3. Sign a vet QB like Campbell to compete with Keenum and draft a QB in 2015. The best option, IMHO
4. Reach for Bridgewater, the worst option. IMHO
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
If I'm not mistaken, but isnt Matthews one of the reasons Manziel has been getting his **** pushed inwards this year? I dont keep up with college OL 'grades', and I understand the kid is 1st team all american (popularity contest?) but the same was said about Joeckel (sp) about how he was a cant miss, and yada yada yada, but he hasnt been doing much in the pro's. i get the sentimental attachment to #74's son, but he is as much a 'lock' as anyone else. Linemen flop too, it isnt just relegated to QB's, and if the financial downfall isnt what it once was to take a gamble on a top pick then shoot for the stars.

Franchise QB's win games regardless of who's blocking up front. They make mediocre linemen look like all pro's.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Tradayveon Clowney could be better than Mario Williams, who was a #1 overall selection; or, he could be Glenn Dorsey, who was drafted 5th overall and has 6 QB sacks in 6 seasons.

The draft is a crap shoot. I'd aim for a QB, because if it hits, your team will win year-in-and-year-out.
Agreed

If I thought Bridgewater was a franchise QB. If you miss on Bridgewater you set the franchise back for a decade. (5 yrs of Bridgewater and 3 to 5 yrs before the next QB you draft gets enough experience to be a possible SB winning QB in a best case scenerio, if you hit on the next QB.)

This pick is going to set the tone for the next decade. Are the Texans going to rebuild with substance, or are they going to build their team on fluff and PR like they did with Carr? This is where Rick earns his $$$$. (I have little faith in teflon Rick Smith being able to do a good job. Much less a great job, which is what it will take if the Texans want to become a Steelers/Pats type franchise)

Slick Rick knows how to play the game though. (Godfather to BoB's grandson kept his job despite his poor past performance) Good job Rick
 

TexansSeminole

Hall of Fame
If I'm not mistaken, but isnt Matthews one of the reasons Manziel has been getting his **** pushed inwards this year? I dont keep up with college OL 'grades', and I understand the kid is 1st team all american (popularity contest?) but the same was said about Joeckel (sp) about how he was a cant miss, and yada yada yada, but he hasnt been doing much in the pro's. i get the sentimental attachment to #74's son, but he is as much a 'lock' as anyone else. Linemen flop too, it isnt just relegated to QB's, and if the financial downfall isnt what it once was to take a gamble on a top pick then shoot for the stars.

Franchise QB's win games regardless of who's blocking up front. They make mediocre linemen look like all pro's.
Tons of fail in this post.

Matthews hasn't been a problem this year. I watched some tape on him from www.draftbreakdown.com and he did well. You can spend a few hours watching his tape and come to the same conclusion. He hasn't been a problem, but there is definitely an argument worth having on whether or not he is a #1 overall.

Joeckel got hurt this year in October, he's out for the season.
 
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steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I'm not saying RT isn't an important position, more that it's not worth a number 1 pick, or really a top 20 pick. If you guys want to spend a late 1st on it, I could go for that. But if we're talking about Matthews, then we are talking a top 5 pick at this point, and I think it's a waste to spend that kind of a pick on a guy who will be the de facto RT.

There's no question this organization has tried to address the RT position on the cheap. Derek Newton was a 7th round pick, Brenan Williams was a late 3rd with injury history, David Quessenberry (who may not be a OT in the NFL) was a 6th, Ryan Harris was a street FA that had a bad injury history, Rashad Butler was a late 3rd round pick FA that was OK, but not great.

But let's not get caught up in the fact that Smithiak couldn't fix the position, other teams address it without spending 1st round picks on it, and that's why I'm saying we should be able to do the same.

The Patriots current RT Marcus Cannon was a 5th round pick.
The Lions are tied this year for the least amount of sacks given up with 16 total, and their RT this year is UDFA LaAdrian Waddle from Texas Tech.
Up until last year, 4th round pick Jermon Bushrod was starting for the Saints. This week the Saints are starting rookie 2nd round pick Teron Armistead at LT, so we'll see how he does in action. Their current RT is 7th round pick Zach Strief.
The Bears have given up the 3rd least sacks this year, and they are starting rookie 5th round pick Jordan Mills at RT. Can you believe that? A team with Jay Cutler at QB is giving up the 3rd least sacks in the league. Crazy...

Other teams address RT on the cheap through Free Agency. The Colts got Gosder Cherilus, the Rams got Jake Long, the Ravens picked up Bryant McKinnie (2 years 7m) for their Super Bowl run last year. It's really not that uncommon, and teams do have success with it.

I could go on, but my point is that RT really shouldn't require a 1st round pick to be a competent player. If we can't do that with our 3-1 pick or later, then we need a new GM. If Duane Brown was in the last year of his deal, I would be much more open to the idea, but he's not. He's here for the next few years, so we don't need a LT in waiting.
Pointing out more of Rick's failures. There are several OT's that should be massive upgrades at 3-1. (My favorite Moses, James, BB's favorite, Mewhort etc...)

And yes, the Texans do need a new GM.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
If I'm not mistaken, but isnt Matthews one of the reasons Manziel has been getting his **** pushed inwards this year? I dont keep up with college OL 'grades', and I understand the kid is 1st team all american (popularity contest?) but the same was said about Joeckel (sp) about how he was a cant miss, and yada yada yada, but he hasnt been doing much in the pro's. i get the sentimental attachment to #74's son, but he is as much a 'lock' as anyone else. Linemen flop too, it isnt just relegated to QB's, and if the financial downfall isnt what it once was to take a gamble on a top pick then shoot for the stars.

Franchise QB's win games regardless of who's blocking up front. They make mediocre linemen look like all pro's.
"12/7/13: "Matthews had a superb senior season. His pass protection for Johnny Manziel was rock steady. Manziel didn't make it easy with the way he holds onto the ball for long periods of time and scrambles into defenders. Matthews was a quality run blocker, but he isn't overwhelming in the ground game. He doesn't play with a mean streak, and the same thing was said about Luke Joeckel last year. Matthews has proven to be a franchise left tackle for the NFL. "

http://walterfootball.com/draft2014OT.php
 

SW H-TOWN

Rookie
Yep and there isn't a franchise QB available in this draft. IMHO So do you want to force the QB pick and set this franchise back another decade like Casserly did with Carr?

2015 is when the franchise QB's are coming out. The Texans should be doing everything they can to position themselves to get one at that time. Of course BoB/Rick cant see that far ahead.
No, I do not want another Carr situation. If the FO believes that there is not a franchise QB in the draft I would attempt to obtain one in FA but pickings are really slim. This QB class is pretty deep and I personally believe that at least one of them will be a franchise QB. You got Bridgewater, Bortles, and Hundley if they declare. McCarron, Boyd, and Manziel will also be available as well as several others. It is not a given that Winston will come out next year either, example Luck. The thing is that the organization will have to scout the hell out of all of them and pick the right one. Drafting a QB is always risky but is worth the risk due to the importance of the position. I'm not saying that we have to pick a QB with our first pick but we have to draft one in the first 3 rounds IMO. Hopefully we find one that we think is capable of leading this team and we are right.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
At this point in time we're just pissin' in the wind. And a trade with the Browns may indeed be unrealistic, but it does show the possibilities. I get the impression that a lot of you don't fully grasp the value inherent in a 1-1.

Because of their extra picks, the Browns would essentially be giving up only a second to get the 1-1.

The Browns would end up with 1-1, 3-5 and all later picks.

The Texans would have, through round 3, 1-5, 1-24, 2-1, 2-5 and 3-1. They would give up 3,000 points in exchange for 2,970 points.

For those of you so adamant on taking a QB in the 1st, you have pick 1-24; and for those wanting to go in another direction than QB, at 1-5 you have a chance at Barr, Mathews or someone else.

Of course you have to have the willing trade partner, but put me down with the group that believes there is just to much value to be gained by trading down to pass this scenario up.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Can you? Certainly. But the odds are not in your favor.




Passing on Bridgewater in the 1st to take Mettenberger/McCarron/etc in the 2nd is just as much a gamble as just drafting Bridgewater.

Matthews seems to be the key here. Many people would like Matthews + another QB than Bridgewater + another OT. I don't see much difference between Matthews and the other OT's available.
I dont see much any or think Bridgewater is as good potentially as Mettenberger/Bortles they have better arms, or Manziel same mobility/arm strength as Bridgewater. Manziel has just as good a chance to be an all pro as Bridgewater.

BTW, I want Clowney or Barr 1-1.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Pointing out more of Rick's failures. There are several OT's that should be massive upgrades at 3-1. (My favorite Moses, James, BB's favorite, Mewhort etc...)

And yes, the Texans do need a new GM.
I am concerned about Mewhorts' athleticism. I see him more of a OG than RT and in a non ZBS offense.

Moses is an intriguing prospect who averaged 8 knockdowns per game IIRC but is a weight concern despite his ability to kick to side. He would have better prospects if Texans go to different offense. He could be a Brooks type player but is not a starter first season.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I would love that but I think that Bortles will be gone in the first. Manziel would be a great value pick in the 2nd.
You could probably trade up to 22-25 and get one using a 2-1 and a 2015 2nd rd pick. Kinda like the trade for Schaub.

I really hope they trade up for Mettenberger, he will probably fall to 18-25 due to the ACL thing.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
At this point in time we're just pissin' in the wind. And a trade with the Browns may indeed be unrealistic, but it does show the possibilities. I get the impression that a lot of you don't fully grasp the value inherent in a 1-1.

Because of their extra picks, the Browns would essentially be giving up only a second to get the 1-1.

The Browns would end up with 1-1, 3-5 and all later picks.

The Texans would have, through round 3, 1-5, 1-24, 2-1, 2-5 and 3-1. They would give up 3,000 points in exchange for 2,970 points.

For those of you so adamant on taking a QB in the 1st, you have pick 1-24; and for those wanting to go in another direction than QB, at 1-5 you have a chance at Barr, Mathews or someone else.

Of course you have to have the willing trade partner, but put me down with the group that believes there is just to much value to be gained by trading down to pass this scenario up.
I disagree on your contention that Browns would be losing only their second rounder "essentially". They have a second first round that they can use if no trade so you cannot just disregard that. I would accept your trade but to be honest would probably prefer their two thirds than their second but want to research a bit.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I am concerned about Mewhorts' athleticism. I see him more of a OG than RT and in a non ZBS offense.

Moses is an intriguing prospect who averaged 8 knockdowns per game IIRC but is a weight concern despite his ability to kick to side. He would have better prospects if Texans go to different offense. He could be a Brooks type player but is not a starter first season.
Moses has played LT/RT/RG in his career. I've watched him many times and he's comparable to James. The reason I've got him rated higher than James is his versatility.

I can see where you're coming from comparing him to Brooks. Both are huge tough guys who move well. Difference is Moses has performed very well against ACC comp and is in shape, although huge.
 
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