JACKSONVILLE PART 2 Preview

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by LORK 88, Nov 9, 2006.

?

Who wins it?

  1. Houston by a lot

    14.3%
  2. Houston barely

    58.4%
  3. Jacksonville barely

    18.2%
  4. Jacksonville by a lot

    9.1%
  1. LORK 88

    LORK 88 Wreck'em Ŧech!

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    HOUSTON VS JACKSONVILLE PART 2 PREVIEW
    By Brad Lorkovic (LORK 88)​



    Oh how the memory of Battle Red Day this season still lingers and brings a smile to all of our faces. It feels like it was only last week when it happened, but in reality it’s been 3 weeks and you best believe that Jacksonville wants their revenge. Fred Taylor has already been quoted as saying “We won’t lose this time”. There will be major differences this game, most notably at QB. Garrard is getting the start at QB since Byron is hurt and had a poor showing trying to play hurt. Stroud also has a chance to play which could bolster their scary defense. What happens this week, does Houston get the series sweep this weekend or does Jacksonville prove that Battle Red Day was a fluke?

    Houston’s Running Game vs. Jacksonville’s Run D:
    This part of the game has been a lot better than the beginning and largely because of the strides Lundy has made in terms of experience. However, we need another performance like Lundy had against them last week to be as successful as we were. Their run D is still ranked 11th total and has 2 mammoths in Henderson and Stroud. Lucky for us, Stroud may be out yet again this week which would be a huge gain for us. The main thing about the running game is that they allow 100 yard rushers, but they’ve allowed 1 rush over 20 yards all season. However, after Lundy did great against them, they’ve locked down the run pretty well. In terms of their D Line, they all are huge and rely on strength, with Stroud being 305, Henderson around 320, and the DEs Spicer and Meier around 295. The LBs usually get to roam around and make plays because of this, but luckily their pro bowl caliber MLB Mike Peterson is out for the year so they are moving LBs around and starting a rookie most likely. Because of this, I could see outside plays being most successful against this because inside runs are a disaster without huge linemen who can hold up our O Line. Lundy has great patience and uses his vision on outside runs. Overall, I don’t think we can’t do what we did last time we met, I think the biggest problem will be matching the intensity as I bet Jacksonville will come out with some high intensity that we need to match. It should be a long day running the ball, but we must stick with it regardless just to keep their defense honest.

    Houston’s Passing Game vs. Jacksonville’s Pass D:
    This has been our best form of offense week in and week out, but this week there is a big “Proceed with Caution” sign. Why do I say that? Rasheed Mathis is a man on fire this year and is the league leader in INTs this year. Brian Williams is a solid #2 CB which they’ve been missing in years past. However, he’s a better tackler than coverage CB as Andre had a big day against their defense, namely Williams. At the safety positions, they have Deion Grant, a former Panther, and Donovan Darius. Grant is the balanced one who plays well in coverage and is a solid tackler. Darius on the other hand is the BIG hitter. In terms of pass rush, Jax lost Marcellus Wiley for the year, but Bobby McCray has stepped up big as a pass rusher. For the most part, they also get a lot of pressure from the middle. With Mathis on AJ being a tough battle, I could see Eric Moulds having to step up big this week and succeeding. TEs will also play a big role as will RBs out of the backfield to negate the safeties playing up more. What I would also like to see more of is the 5 WR sets and the spread offense we used so effectively against the Giants. Their pass D was a little worse, but there’s no reason why it should work this week as well. Should be an interesting battle, but as long as Carr can stay upright, this will be our dominant form of offense.

    Jacksonville’s Rushing Game vs. Houston’s Run D: Here’s where we really need to control Jacksonville on offense. Fred Taylor is healthy thus far this season, and is playing well. He has good size, and is surprisingly quick on cutbacks which he does often and effectively. Jones-Drew on the other hand is the dynamic home run threat. He is a big threat receiving, rushing and returning. Their O line is also on the bigger size and relies more on strength which actually might help us out better than in the past seeing as how nobody on our D Line is smaller than 285 (including DEs). Lucky for us, their RBs aren’t known for breaking off huge runs. I can see our DEs doing a good job containing the outside runs, but I think our biggest problems will be the runs inside. Our D Line has been progressing this season and I doubt our woes stop this week. We need them to at least hold up the line so DeMeco can make plays and stops. Slowing the run down will be step 1 to slowing this offense down. Mario looked good when he played Jacksonville and has been improving, but we need a lot from him this week. The main thing we have to worry about is not over pursuing because Taylor will make us pay when we do, and Jones-Drew can too in many ways.

    Jacksonville’s Passing Game vs. Houston’s Pass D: Simply put, our pass D is horrible. Its been improving slowly, and we made Manning throw some bad throws, but we still have a long ways t go before we consider our pass D improved. This week will be interesting because Garrard will replace Leftwich this week, after a great week against Tennessee (which any Titan fan will say was because Pac Man was out that week). How big of a factor he will be is truly unknown. Robinson has been decent, but seems satisfied with how he’s currently playing while most of us want to see more. Our Safeties are bad, but Glenn Earl has been playing better, even though he still better at run support. Therefore, our pass rush will have to be effective to keep our pass D afloat. As far as Jacksonville’s pass offense is concerned, they actually might be better off without Leftwich. Garrard is starting caliber and can still lead them. Reggie Williams is their leading receiver, with Wilford being their #2 this game. This year, TEs are more involved as well. Wrightster has had 161 yards receiving and gives them anther threat. They never use the passing game heavily, so we need to shut down the run to force them to throw the ball, especially if Garrard is QB as long as we don’t be stupid and make his QB reads for him by giving him favorable match ups.


    Position Battle
    QB Advantage: HOUSTON
    RB Advantage: JACKSONVILLE
    WR Advantage: HOUSTON
    TE Advantage: PUSH
    OL Advantage: JACKSONVILLE
    DL Advantage: JACKSONVILLE
    LB Advantage: JACKSONVILLE
    CB Advantage: JACKSONVILLE
    S Advantage: JACKSONVILLE
    K/P Advantage: HOUSTON
    RET Advantage: PUSH

    Key Factors To The Game
    1) Stop the run. Taylor and Jones-Drew are their obvious strong point on offense, so we need to shut that out and fore them to do what they don’t want to do which is throw often. If we can force the pass and game plan upon Garrard before he’s ready, it could create turnovers and force bad passes like it did last week. If anything, it will make it harder for them if we can make them one dimensional.

    2) Intensity. You know that Jacksonville is going to be intense and come out firing this game to keep Taylor’s guarantee and make sure they don’t get embarrassed like last time. I think that we better come out firing because Jacksonville got a wake up call last time we played them and have won 2 straight since then. Let’s not give them what they want and sweep them this season for bragging rights!!

    3) Finish drives. Last week, we got in the red zone often and moved the ball easily, but we didn’t finish that often. We’ve got to find a way to get points out of every drive no matter what. Brown needs to make all his field goals and we need to create more manageable situations on 3rd down (which we’ve been improving on).
     
    Runner and swtbound07 like this.
  2. Double Barrel

    Double Barrel Modified Simian

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    Good post, Lork, and well written. :thumbup

    I think it will be a much tougher battle this week than our last meeting, but I feel good about our chances. I think it will be a close game with a Texans victory as a result.
     
  3. HOU-TEX

    HOU-TEX Ah, Football!

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    Very nice break down. I'd like to expand a little on the "Key Factor" section. I believe a major factor for success against the Jags will be the turnover battle. We won the last meeting due to winning the battle. Every game we've lost has had alot to do with our mistakes. We need to create turnovers defensively in order to capitalize off them, like our offense did a couple weeks ago.:)
     
  4. kcwilson

    kcwilson All Pro

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    Good break down.

    ****************
    Biggest Over-sight many people are making right now is: Maurice Jones-Drew
    ****************

    I think we have seen over and over this year that the screen play and draw play have wreaked havoc on this young defense.

    All season, teams have feasted upon the front four pushing hard up front and dropping the rb through the line for a screen play. Westbrook, Jacobs, Barber, Jones-Drew last time we met, and Addai all victimized us on this type of play.

    Hopefully Kubiak and Smith are game planning and teaching the DL to read the play and re-act.
     
  5. axman40

    axman40 Hall of Fame

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    I like The Texans in a close one 27-26!

    :logo: :homer:
     
  6. TexanSam

    TexanSam Hall of Fame

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    One more key factor in my opinion. The Jaguars are playing at home. Here's the Jaguars results for their home games this season (they're 4-0):

    Sept. 10 vs Dallas W 24-17
    Sept. 18 vs Pittsburgh W 9-0
    Oct. 8 vs NY Jets W 41-0
    Nov. 5 vs Tennessee W 37-7

    They've been dominant at home the last 3 games, allowing only 1 TD.
     
  7. LORK 88

    LORK 88 Wreck'em Ŧech!

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    Good point, but we're 5-4 against Jax (.544) and 15-46 (.246) against everyone else. Heres more of the article if anyone wants to read more:

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=175
     
  8. The Pencil Neck

    The Pencil Neck Subscribed Contributor

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    It would be soooo sweet to win this game... but I don't think it's in the cards. They're a good home team and we're a bad road team. We're not going to surprise them and they've got something to prove.

    Honestly, I think we lose this one. Although in my pick'em fantasy league, I've picked us. Then again, I always pick us.
     


  9. jerek

    jerek Pro Hobbyist

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    This is hard to call since we're seeing Garrard and since I do believe the Jags overlooked us last time, and will probably watch film, make adjustments, and come out very fired up. That said I thought we played a pretty solid game against them the first time but I saw improvements that could be made and our defense has been gaining confidence every outing.

    Once again it seems our X factors will be David Carr and Wali Lundy. I went ahead and picked Houston by a lot since I really have no idea, but I could see this one being close. It's another one of those if-we-play-like-we're-capable-of-playing we could smoke them, but if we lay an egg (e.g. Titans, Dallas) then we'll get slaughtered. Consistency is key and hopefully we'll take a big step toward developing it with a tough W on the road.
     
  10. HOU-TEX

    HOU-TEX Ah, Football!

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    Dadgum right it is! We haven't really shown any consistancy in our short existance.

    On another note, is there anybody out there that's a little worried about our Dline this week? I'm sure it's different for them, but normally when somebody has a bad virus it'll take several days to get back to full strength. Will the big fellas be ready to go a 100%? Or am I just being a worry wart?:spy:
     
  11. Osso

    Osso Veteran

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    We surprised the giants and came 38 yards and a fumble from beating them.

    Texans by 10 or more
     
  12. LORK 88

    LORK 88 Wreck'em Ŧech!

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    Your not a worrying wart, im worried about our D line when their 100%. They need to play extremely well against the run, we cant do what we did last week and expect to win.
     
  13. LORK 88

    LORK 88 Wreck'em Ŧech!

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  14. JDizzle

    JDizzle I'm a dude

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    I'm picking the Jags. They are undefeated at home this year and are winning at home in convincing fashion. Our offense has struggled the past couple weeks to put points up with Carr in and I don't see the trend changing against a good defense.

    JVille - 17
    Texans - 10
     
  15. Bamaborn-Texasbred

    Bamaborn-Texasbred All Pro

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    I took the Kitty Cats in my pro pick'em sheet. In this sheet you pick the winner of each game straight up. After you've done that you weigh each game based on level of confidence. This week is a full slate of 16 games. 16 would be your highest level of confidence going down to 1 for the lowest. I put ten on the kitty cats.

    I've won it twice this year. So, I've already won more than the whole years' play will cost me.

    If the Texans lose - I win. If the Texans win - I win.

    If our boys come out like they did against Eli and company last week, we could be dancing in the streets tomorrow.

    Texans 17
    Kitty Cats 13
     
  16. OrangeCountyTexansFan

    OrangeCountyTexansFan Veteran

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    Good breakdown. I say Houston by 7 points or less.
     
  17. edo783

    edo783 Site Contributor

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    Depends on which version of Sybill shows up.
     
  18. afcman

    afcman Veteran

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    The QB change from the Jags has me worried. He's better that "Left-behind".

    I say if we're not up by halftime we do the same. :shades:
     
  19. LORK 88

    LORK 88 Wreck'em Ŧech!

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    Im officially renaming this key to the game "don't miss field goals" . . .
     
  20. Brandon420tx

    Brandon420tx Flounder

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    :rofl:
     

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