Is there actually a chance?

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by JamTex, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. JamTex

    JamTex Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!

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    I know it's not good to get ahead of ourselves, but I heard something from SportsRadio 610 and also from the NFL Network that's very interesting so I looked at the teams going into the playoffs and this is a real possibility. Looking at the remaining schedules of the teams at the top of the AFC as of right now and the Texans remaining schedule, this is what could possibly be...

    This is assuming the Texans win their remaining games of course, or possibly lose just 1 more.

    The Chiefs sitting at 9-2 have to face these teams in the last 5 of the season...

    The Raiders
    The Ravens
    The Chargers
    The Seahawks

    and The Raiders

    There are a few tough games left on their schedule in the Ravens, Chargers and Seahawks. There is a possibility that the Chiefs could lose 2 of those games and possibly even all 3. That would leave the Chiefs with a 12-4 record or possibly an 11-5 record. That would go a long way to helping out the Texans when it's all said and done.

    The Patriots who are 8-3 have to face these 5 teams on their remaining schedule...

    The Vikings
    The Dolphins
    The Steelers
    The Bills
    and The Jets

    In this scenario, the tough teams that could beat the Patriots are the Vikings and the Steelers. Just losing one of these games would put the Texans ahead of the Patriots, but losing 2 would add to the padding since the possible record could be either 12-4 or 11-5.

    Then there is the Chargers who are 8-3 and have to face...

    The Steelers
    The Bengals
    The Chiefs
    The Ravens

    and The Broncos

    The 4 teams that could give the Chargers a problem are the Steelers, the Chiefs, the Ravens and the Broncos. It would be good if they could at least beat the Chiefs to help out the Texans. Who really cares about the others although it would be good if they lose just 1 more to pad a possible Texans lead in the final standings.

    And Finally, The Steelers who are 7-3-1 facing these five teams to end their season...

    The Chargers
    The Raiders
    The Patriots
    The Saints

    and The Bengals

    The ones in red, of course, are the teams that could give the Steelers trouble. I'm hoping they can beat the Chargers and Patriots to help out our Texans in the final standings. The others, who cares?

    Basically, if these scenarios come to fruition and the Texans win out or lose only 1 more game, with a little wiggle room given them by some of these teams losing 2 or more of their remaining games, the Texans could end up with possibly a 13-3 or even 12-4 record and get the Bye as well as home field advantage throughout the playoffs by virtue of their record. It's a long shot, but with a little help, it's a very real possibility.

    Thoughts?





     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
  2. House of Pain

    House of Pain Knee-jerkless

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    I know you aren't banking on this but we have a chance. First and foremost, the Texans need to beat the teams they play. The only thing I would question is that HISTORICALLY the Patriots play their best football to close out the season. Doesn't mean that will happen this year, but usually they play at a higher level. I will say that if by the grace of the football gods, do win out and somehow get the #1, I would be legitimately excited to see how far they could make it. Definitely not a given, but with Watson at the helm, I think we can win those big games that he usually lose.
     
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  3. Norg

    Norg -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

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    the steelers are out its a 3 way race I guess with us chiefs and pats

    its going to be tough for us I just think or have that feeling that we will lose both road games against the jets and Philly heck the browns could beat us either way ...we shall cee
     
  4. JamTex

    JamTex Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!

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    I really don't think the Texans will lose to the Browns, Jets or Eagles, but the Colts here at home could be the problem. The thing the Texans need to do is what they've been doing all season. One game at a time. Concentrate and put their best game on the field every game to finish the season. We can only watch and see.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
  5. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

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    you should have prefaced your post with 'jinx alert'
     
  6. JamTex

    JamTex Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!

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    Blame 610 and the NFL Network. They said it before I did. Or alluded to it. Lol
     
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  7. bigmck

    bigmck Veteran

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    The Texans have the easiest schedule of the contending teams. We don't have anyone over .500 as of now. Having the Number One Seed would be great, but just getting the Bye would sure make the Playoffs easier. == I'm sorry. I didn't mean to say the "Word".

     
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  8. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Pro BS'er

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    I remember last year when I was banging that 'stength of schedule' drum and how it does make a difference in the big picture and all I got was the 'gotta play who you gotta play' or 'the whole division has a hard schedule' gem .. yup. Im glad the Texans will face a team on fire in Indy next week and hopefully gets pushed to the limits or even loses. All this beating up on weak teams builds a bravado that has a tendency to get slapped in the playoffs. Like did they use up all of their grit coming back from 0-3 and now they wont really have to deal with any more adversity?
     
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  9. JamTex

    JamTex Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!

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    Every game is adversity. Every team has professional players. The best in the world. They are playing because they were better then everyone else that tried to make it. That goes for every team. It isn't bravado. It's pay back. Every team has their time. Who says it's not the Texans time? All we can do is watch this team. If they keep their mantra for "one game at a time" who says they can't do it? This team is different then any we've watched. Give them a chance. They may be the same old team, then again, the Watson effect could take hold and launch this team to places we've only hoped they could go. All we want is a winning team for a change. Hopefully, this Texans team can give us that soon. Maybe this year, maybe next. Who knows? We'll see.
     
  10. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Pro BS'er

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    I enjoy optimism as much as the next guy - I dont envision myself as overly cynical but this team and in particular this citys football teams have done a number on my psyche. We've all played ball Im sure .. high school varsity, getting to scrimmage against the JV, or one year I remember a super cocky freshman A team that needed a lesson in humility, but no matter how good we played against inferior competition it never fully prepared me for that first hit in a playoff game and I still remember saying "dang these guys hit harder, are faster and they play great together" im not advocating a losers mentality because the Texans have shown that they belong on the field and lately are showing that they can battle back from a deficit, but there is nothing like facing great competition to get you ready for a run IMO. Look at how the 2012 Ravens were conditioned for their championship run. Coming off a 12-4 season they hit the 1st place schedule and went 10-6 and limped their way into the playoffs. I firmly believe that the good teams they faced in the year (we whipped the **** out of them if I remember correctly) set them up for the level of competition they would face in the playoffs and they clicked at the precise time, so maybe the Texans can channel the 12 Ravens that would be pretty awesome, but my point in that 1st place/last place strength of schedule isnt something to dismiss easily I mean its one of the tiebreakers for the playoffs.
     
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  11. JamTex

    JamTex Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!

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    The Cowboys and Broncos were pretty good competition. The texans fought back and won both games. They've faced really good competition this year. The Redskins were on a tear until the Texans brought them down to earth. Remember that? It's not like the Texans haven't played anyone. They have. And they are winning. JJ said it best. "We don't know where the play will come from or who will make it. We just know it's coming and someone will make it." I believe in these guys because they believe in themselves. Watson is a big game player. When the lights are on, he's unstoppable. Let's put it this way. Since 2014 in prime time games, before Watson, the Texans were 3-8. Since watson, they are 4-1. Watson could very well be the difference in this team. Let's let the season play out and see what happens.
     
  12. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Pro BS'er

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    But you're remaining relative to the strength of the schedule .. put it to you like this do you have alot of confidence that this team could withstand a scoring barrage from NO, KC, PITT, Chargers, Rams? Like I said Im super excited to see how they play against the Colts, the first matchup is not indicative of where that Indy team is right now. That game will tell me alot more than going against a Denver team with Case Keenum which we needed their kicker to miss the game winning kick in order to win, the Dallas game was a good game for this team no doubt I will give you that, but I could also say that the Dallas offense back then was so much easier to stop then it is now. All about context.

    AGain Im not saying this team cant win, they can. They've shown that like you've said. Im just apprehensive to overlook the truly dominant teams in the league. Yes we've been winning games all year? Decisively? I mean you can hide behind 'a win is a win' but in reality each game tells you so much apart from the score, like how some losses are actually moral victories.
     
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  13. JamTex

    JamTex Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!

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    I completely agree with you. The thing is, when the Texans play those elite teams, would you rather them play here at home or on the road? At home, the Texans have a chance with Watt and this defense and Watson with D Hop on offense to rely upon and a really raucous, loud NRG Stadium fan base. The Texans have a better chance of winning at home then they do on the road. The point of this thread is that there's a real chance that all of those games could be played here at home should the Texans win out or at most, lose 1 game and the others all lose certain games to help the Texans get home field advantage. If those teams lose, not only could the road to the Super Bowl go through Houston, but those teams would also reveal their weaknesses and how to beat them. That's the point.
     
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  14. welsh texan

    welsh texan Site Contributor

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    Yeah strength of schedule is a strange one, I've tended not to believe in it previously but this season it is pretty stark.

    All well and good saying you can only beat what's in front of you, but we have played mostly awful opponents this year.

    We'll see a huge jump next year and play some better teams, there'll need to be an improvement over the off-season to sustain the record we are going to get this year.
     
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  15. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Pro BS'er

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    absolutely! and next year if there is a dropoff in production its not a reason to jump off a cliff and say the team sucks. context.
     
  16. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Pro BS'er

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    As a division winner we would have home field regardless no? We would be arguing about catching the first round bye and then having home field which could be the difference but I'd say that if I were to look up each high powered offense and the home/road scoring splits we might not see too much of dropoff (I could be wrong havent researched that data) but it still is evident that those one seeds from last year who have been having some truly spectacular contests against each other thus far are prepared in the 'faced the best talent' box on the championship checklist.
     
  17. paycheck71

    paycheck71 Hall of Fame

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  18. JamTex

    JamTex Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!

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    That really depends on which NFC and AFC divisions (I'm not sure who they are) the Texans play next year in the rotation. That's 8 games, then there are the 6 against our division and the other 2 are against AFC teams with a similar record to the Texans. And who the away and home teams played will be. It could still either be considered a "weak" or "strong" schedule depending on those things. This year, everyone thought the Texans were playing a very strong schedule until the season really got under way. Now it's considered a weak schedule. See how that works? We won't know about next year until it gets here. This is about this year and what is left in front of the teams that are likely going to these playoffs now.
     
  19. JamTex

    JamTex Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!

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    The only teams that are guaranteed a home game in the playoffs are the division winners going against the wild card teams, and the division winners that have earned the bye. So no. Winning the division does not guarantee a home game in the divisional round or into the Championship round.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
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  20. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Pro BS'er

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    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

    gives you an idea at what the data is in regards to how teams have played at home and on the road. KC plays better on the road, and NE is 2 TDs better at home. So you can gain some insight from this, but for me it still tells me that no matter where the Texans play the offense is going to have to show up.

    I looked at how all the top offenses this year improved by a TD or more in terms of scoring average and the TExans improved by about a FG from last year. I dont know what to make of that yet but found the basic numbers interesting. If anything the Texans are more consistent than some of those teams in terms of splits, but they too play worse on the road. (to be expected I know, but at least its not like the Patriots who are awful away from Gillette).
     

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