How Oddsmakers see the 2018 Texans

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by DeshaunTexan, Jul 10, 2018.

  1. DeshaunTexan

    DeshaunTexan Rookie

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    Right now to win the AFC Title:

    New England +200 (seems like relatively free money)
    Pittsburgh +350
    HOUSTON +1000
    Jacksonville +1000

    Everyone else pretty far down. IMHO, what this means; and the games aren't won in July on odds sheets, I understand that...

    But what this means is we are clearly in that top six. Those here who feel like we don't make the playoffs, it's not seen that way in the people who are truly in the know and paid to set lines. We are right there, batting with Jacksonville for the division and not really that big of a longshot to be what Jacksonville was last year (maybe in the AFCC game against Pittsburgh or New England).

    I really for the first time; feel confident that we will be playing in January.
     
  2. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    Vegas did pretty poorly last year in predicting the Texans odds........too many variables this early in the year (even in Sept).

     
  3. paycheck71

    paycheck71 Hall of Fame

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    Vegas doesn't care about predicting who's going to win. It only cares to predict how people are going to bet their $
     
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  4. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Pro BS'er

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    The Deshaun Factor.
     
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  5. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    I guess I just like rooting for under dogs. Always have and probably always will. I've been under dog too many times. Back in my Dallas watching days, long long ago, there was a very short linebacker and another Cowboy full back (IIRC) that each year were eliminated by "experts" of making team. Both played several years and for me it was a stick in the eye to those experts. Do I expect Texans to go SB this year? No. Does that lower my passion or hope each week? No!!
     
  6. Seegara

    Seegara Hall of Fame

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    I don't understand what all the numbers mean, but I can't belieeeeve the Titans are favored to win this division.
     
  7. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    That was last year (as a comparison).
     
  8. DeshaunTexan

    DeshaunTexan Rookie

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    Nah, this isn't correct thinking. They have to hedge themselves; they don't want to lose money. The odds are a good depiction about a team's true chances. It's the best barometer available with all things factored in and broken down to a whole number. If we weren't truly in that top 3 or 4 at the time of this post; they wouldn't have us slated to be. They don't want to lose money.

    There is a misconception I see all the time - "Vegas doesn't care who wins, they just want 50/50 on both sides". That's not true. They want the 'sides' (and this isn't a side bet) loaded up with 80% of the bets to lose. You see it all the time in MLB and NBA and NFL on Sunday's. You'll see reverse line movement. When they have good intel - and believe me they have it - that a side is going to have a high probability of losing and lots of public betting suckers are taking that side, they'll drop the line or give more points to make it more appealing even; even if 80% of the money is on that side. Vegas is greedy. And they're good enough to be greedy.

    This is a positive where they have us.
     
  9. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

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    Perhaps you mis-read his post
     
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  10. paycheck71

    paycheck71 Hall of Fame

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    Kind of sounds like you disagree with me and then provide a bunch of points to support my statement.
     
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