Houston Texans Draft Pick Order Thread

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by Texans34Life, Dec 20, 2010.

  1. Texans34Life

    Texans34Life I BLEED TEXANS!

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    http://houston.sbnation.com/houston...-nfl-draft-draft-order-trending-up-for-texans

    As of today, WE ARE #12! If Minny wins tonight, we move up to #11!

    [​IMG]

    How far can we can climb if we lose out?

    http://walterfootball.com/draft2011.php

    They got us picking:

    Houston Texans: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

    The Texans have one of the worst defenses we've seen in a long time. So, how do you fix it?

    First of all, Zach Diles needs to go. He's a horrific weakside linebacker who's a major liability in coverage. An upgrade at nose tackle is desperately needed. Two new safeties (particularly a free safety) have to be found. Another pass-rusher wouldn't hurt.

    Stephen Paea is the best player on the board who would help improve Houston's defense. Paea is a 310-pound tackle who has 11 TFL and seven sacks on the year.
     
  2. Kaiser Toro

    Kaiser Toro Native Mod

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    This will be moved to the the correct forum shortly
     
  3. keyser

    keyser Hall of Fame

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    I've been trying to figure this out (and someone will probably have something more official soon), but here's what I can figure.
    Carolina has the #1 pick locked up.
    There are 3 teams at 4-11, 6 (including Houston) at 5-10, and 4 at 6-9. Few of these teams play each other next week, except that 2 of the 5-10 teams play each other (SF and Arizona), and one 6-9 team (Minn.) plays a 5-10 (Detroit). I'm assuming that Strength of Schedule (the tiebreaker) will not change too much in the final week, but small changes may occur.

    If Houston loses, they clearly pick in the 2-10 range. However, I don't think Denver will have a stronger Strength of Schedule, even if they win (thus we pick no higher than 3). Also, for the SF/AZ game, the winner will have a better record (so we pick no lower than 9), though the loser will, I think, have a lower SoS than Houston (so we pick no higher than 4). I think that Cleveland and Detroit will have a higher SoS than Houston, if they also lose (so we couldn't pick in spot 8 or 9). All of that means that if Houston loses, I think we end up picking somewhere between slot 4 and slot 7. The outcomes of the Dallas, Buffalo, and Cincinnatti games would determine where in that range we end up (each win by one of those moves us up a slot).

    If Houston wins, they clearly pick in the 5-14 range. However, at least one of SF/AZ will lose, and I think the winner would also have a lower SoS than Houston (so we pick no lower than 7). Of the other current 5-10 teams, I'm not sure we can say much. Of the current 6-9 teams, I think only Minnesota would have a higher SoS if they lose (so we pick no higher than 13). All of that means that if Houston wins, I think they end up picking somewhere between slot 7 and slot 13. The outcomes of the Washington, Tennessee, Seattle, Cleveland, Detroit, and maybe Dallas games would determine where in that we would fall (basically, each win by one of them moves us up a slot).

    In summary, if we lose, we're somewhere in slots 4-7, if we win, we are somewhere in slots 7-13.
     
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  4. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    so should we hope they lose?

    4. Prince Amukamara, DB, Nebraska - 6'1 - 205
    5. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson - 6'4 - 280
    6. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn - 6'5 - 298
    7. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama - 6'3 - 306

    or win?

    7. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama - 6'3 - 306
    8. Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina - 6'5 - 268
    9. Jake Locker, QB, Washington - 6'3 - 230
    10. Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn - 6'6 - 250
    11. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa - 6'4" - 285
    12. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - 6'1 - 205
    13. Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State - 6'1 - 311

    Have to say I hope we lose & get a shot @ Amukamara or Fairley, but I'll let the chips fall where they may. nice summary Keyser :)
     
  5. Corrosion

    Corrosion Idealist

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    I wonder if the front office hasnt been going this route since the loss to the Ravens. Just seems to me that a lot of things point in that direction .... Players on IR or sitting out. Even some of the personel decisions - who's on the field in what situation. Call me crazy but I believe that they have been playing for draft position since that loss.

    Getting a significant upgrade at DT or CB might just solve this teams defensive problems ....



    FWIW - I dont see Cam Newton being drafted in the top 10 considering he likely wont be a QB in the NFL. Tough to spend a top 10 draft choice on a guy who's going to change positions - and who knows what position he will end up as ?
     
  6. SAMURAITEXAN

    SAMURAITEXAN Subscribed Contributor

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    I don't want the Texans to lose however, 4,5,6,and 7, all are very appealing to me. (13 as well) I would like 4,6, or 7 please. Please make it to go and send that package to the Texans.
     
  7. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    I'm not a Cam Newton fan or hater. Just a reflection of this boards draft geeks who helped pound out Texans Talk Big Board http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=78319
    Also, I have a hard time believing Texans have been throwing games since the Raven game? This season has just sucked beyond belief, they got in a downward spiral & seem unable to recover. There is no fear or accountability, they've played & coached like their ALL concussed :rake:
     
  8. stingray

    stingray Hall of Fame

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    Here's the order as of today with opposing teams winning %.

    1 Carolina Panthers 2-13 .575
    2 Denver Broncos 4-11 .508
    3 Cincinnati Bengals 4-11 .579
    4 Buffalo Bills 4-11 .583
    5 Arizona Cardinals 5-10 .458
    6 San Francisco 49ers 5-10 .492
    7 Dallas Cowboys 5-10 .521
    8 Houston Texans 5-10 .525
    9 Detroit Lions 5-10 .550
    10 Cleveland Browns 5-10 .575
    11 Seattle Seahawks 6-9 .488
    12 Tennessee Titans 6-9 .504
    13 Washington Redskins 6-9 .513
    14 Minnesota Vikings 6-9 .542
    15 New England Patriots (from OAK) 7-8 .471
    16 Miami Dolphins 7-8 .538
    17 Jacksonville Jaguars 8-7 .450
    18 San Diego Chargers 8-7 .458
    19 New York Giants 9-6 .454
    20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-6 .479

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...0JWwDg&usg=AFQjCNHk_ZIYkL6jZkpI5TPB97RTIY_kLA
     


  9. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    Interesting take from Rivers McCown on potential factors in the Draft order.
     
  10. Corrosion

    Corrosion Idealist

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    I dont mean that they have intentionally thrown games - more like they dont care one way or the other.


    As far as Newton , Im not hating on him. Just find it difficult to believe he's a top 10 pick when he doesnt have a position.
     
  11. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

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    With all the success that Vick is having this year, I would not be surprised if some team thought he would make a good qb.
     
  12. 97roc

    97roc Veteran

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    Thats a good thing for us. It means we have a better chance at landing a solid DT or CB. It may even allow us to trade down if someone is really high on him or the other 2 QB's that should be available in the 5-13 range. I don't think Mallet, Locker, Newton are worthy of a top 15 pick, but somewhere out there is a McDaniels who might pull the trigger. I can only hope all three do very well at the combine.
     
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  13. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    1. I think the big board being referred to here is pretty bad, but I didn't make any effort to change it, so it is what it is at this point.

    2. Cam Newton will get every chance to play QB in the NFL. He's got the arm. That's the thing. Tebow didn't have the arm or mechanics. Newton is a better passing QB than Tebow, and like-wise will get drafted as a QB. He is not one of the elite QB's this year, as there is a good group, but he has first round potential. I think another year would benefit him.

    3. Ryan Mallet is very much an elite QB. Think Joe Flacco with a better arm and having played SEC competition.

    As for the original topic, there is some very tantalizing talent at the top of the draft this year. If all players come out, some of the players who should be at the top of our board will be forced down by guys such as Luck, Green, Jones, Gabbert, and Mallet.
     
  14. VTexan

    VTexan The Realist

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    I don't see us losing to a Garrard,mojo-less jags team so pencil us in for the number 10 pick.
     
  15. silvrhand

    silvrhand Site Contributor

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    Sorry I right now would rate FS as our #1 need, I don't know how many times I have seen our secondary get roasted only to see the SS/FS not as deep as the deepest receiver with the CB trailing in their right position.

    FS/DT are the highest needs on this team IMHO..
     
  16. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

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    I would rate a Safety with ball skills as our #1 need too. The problem with this draft is I think the #1 FS is actually Patrick Peterson. #1 CB, #1 S, #1DB. Do we even have a shot at selecting him? Maybe but doubtful. If he truly would be a lockdown cover CB for us then I wouldn't move him to S but keep him at CB anyways. After him its looking like Rahim Moore out of UCLA would be the best safety but he's an early 2nd rounder maybe pushing late 1st round kind of guy (at least by everyone's guesses at this point).

    What's the good word on Deunta Williams out of North Carolina as a FS prospect for us?
     
  17. Maddict5

    Maddict5 Hall of Fame

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    yup. cant see us losing either. we'd have a decent shot at prince imo if we did though

    im no expert but theres a few guys like moore, williams & kenny tate pegged as late 1st/early 2nd atm. hopefully one of those is there at 39ish or we move up to get em
     
  18. CharloTex

    CharloTex All Pro

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    Here is my detailed analysis of where the Texans stand with regard to the 2011 NFL Draft Selection Order, heading into the last week's regular season games. First, claimer/disclaimer: I’m an estimator by profession so I’m somewhat credentialed hereby. And though this information is warrantable as it is, this analysis gets very confusing to read, let alone to create. It may be a dry read, but it is what it is, take it for what it’s worth to you.

    First some preliminary info:

    * Draft selection order is based first on a team’s win-loss-tied record (fewer wins = earlier pick), and secondly for teams with the same records, by comparing the teams’ Opponents’ Winning Percentage (OWP). More on this below**. Since every NFL team plays the exact same number of games (16), every NFL’s team’s group of annual opponents (16) plays a collective total of 256 games (16 x 16). Therefore, any team’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage is all of their 16 opponent’s collective wins (1 point for each win) plus ties (½ point each), divided by 256 total games. The 256 games are the same for all, so the only variable in this formula is the number of “collective wins.” So, we need ONLY analyze and compare the cumulative opponent wins, which I will call Opponent’s Win Number (OW#). The Texans for example (will-) have played 13 different opponents, including our 3 divisional opponents twice (and these 3 teams count twice), for a total of 16 opponents. These opponents in turn have played 16 games each. 16 opponents times 16 games each equals 256 opportunities to add to the Opponent Win Number (OW#). The Texans OW# is currently 126; i.e., the Texans opponents have collectively won 126 games.

    ** Teams that are tied in record and have the lesser Opponent Win Number (OW#), pick earlier than the tied team(s) with a greater OW#. I think the NFL reasons that if you attained the same (crappy) record against even crappier teams, that makes you worse, and you should pick earlier. By the way, teams that are tied in both record and OW# after year end will move to the COIN FLIP tie breaker. The Texans lost in a coin flip last year to pick 20th, I believe to Atlanta, who picked 19th.

    *** The NFL’s new scheduling tendency that brought about so many inner-divisional games during this last week serves to especially limit the likelihood of movement between teams with even small gaps in their OW#. In my analysis, I found that it was impossible for the Texans to tie, surpass, or be surpassed by teams that had a current (Week 16) OW# that differed by any more than 3 games. In fact, it is now very unlikely that a change in OW# during the final week will result, in and of itself, in a change of position, even if two teams differ in Week 16 by only two OW# games, as do the Cowboys and Houston -save the coin flip.

    **** Arizona plays a late game (3:15 pm CST) at San Francisco on Sunday. Both of these teams are currently tied with us in record (5-10), and have a lesser OW#, and therefore both currently figure to pick before us. Except, that one must win and one must lose. So, one of these teams will become a 6-game winner, and automatically leap the Texans IF THE TEXANS LOSE. The winner would pick LATER than a losing Texans. IF THE TEXANS were to WIN and themselves become a 6-game winner, then even the winner of this game will pick earlier than the Texans. References to the ARI/SF result will be made below.
     
  19. CharloTex

    CharloTex All Pro

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    Without further ado, this analysis will divide into two possible greater scenarios – the first: What can happen IF THE TEXANS LOSE on Sunday and end up with a 5 win, 11 loss record?

    CAROLINA cannot finish with even 4 wins. They will be picking 1st.

    DENVER could win a late (afternoon) game at home against SD, rendering them with 5 wins, but no way the Texans have a lesser OW#, so Denver will pick before us, probably 2nd, but possibly as late as 5th.

    If either 4-win CINCINNATI wins at Baltimore, or 4-win BUFFALO wins at NY Jets (both early games), they will leap over a losing Texans by virtue of their 5-wins and in each case, a much greater OW#. If they should both win and advance, only because either ARI or SF must lose in their mutual game, the losing Texans are herein rendered to their best possible position, 4th. No matter what, CAR, DEN, and either ARI/SF will pick before us. On the other hand, if CIN and/or BUF lose their game(s), they finish with 4 wins, and pick before us. In the (predictable) case that they both lose, the Texans would know going into our late game that we could do no better than 6th place, (CAR, DEN, CIN, BUF and either ARI/SF pick before a losing Texans). Between CIN and BUF, their OW# is so close that they may swap positions amongst themselves, depending on overall league play. My best guess suggests they may tie for 4th.

    If 5-win DALLAS were to win their late game in Philly, they will finish with 6 wins and leap over a losing Texans, who in this case would be assured of nothing worse than 6th place, depending on above scenarios. If instead Dallas were to lose, it gets muddy with the losing Texans. The only way we get a lesser OW# when tied with a 5-win Dallas, is if and only if BAL and NYJ lose in early games, AND New Orleans wins their early game against Tampa Bay, AND Arizona triumphs over SF in their late game. (This is one reason to root for ARI to win). Only with this exact alignment of NFL planets will the losing Texans be leapt by the losing Cowboys, with the Texans again picking now worse than 6th. If only three of the necessary alignments happen, we would tie with Dallas, based both on matching records and OW#s, and we would be subject to a coin flip with the Cowgirls (last year conducted on Feb. 26). Otherwise, two or fewer “alignments”, and Dallas picks before us and we pick 7th (or earlier, depending on other above scenarios).

    If current 5-game winners DETROIT or CLEVELAND also lose, the losing Texans will still pick before them, based on better OW#s. Therefore, the worst a losing Texans can do is to gain one place, moving from the current 8th place to the 7th place (or as early as 4th place).
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2010
  20. CharloTex

    CharloTex All Pro

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    What can happen IF THE TEXANS WIN on Sunday and end up with a 6 win, 10 loss record?

    CAR, DEN, CIN, BUF, ARI, SF, and any losers amongst DAL, DET, CLE, SEA, and TEN will all pick before us. A losing WAS may pick before us, so our worst placement if we win would be 13th. We will not pick lower than 13th. MINNESOTA will pick after us even if they lose, by virtue of a sufficiently greater OW#.

    If either/both DETROIT wins at home against MIN, and/or CLEVELAND wins at home against PIT (both early games), thereby becoming 6-win teams along with a winning Texans, they will (both) still have greater OW#’s, and therefore pick after us.

    If SEATTLE wins at home in the (final) night game against St. Louis (not only will they advance to the playoffs, but) they will advance to a 7-win team, and pick after the winning Texans at 6-10.

    If TENNESSEE wins their late game at Indy, they will become (not only the 3rd best team in the AFC South, but) a 7-win team, and pick after the winning Texans at 6-10.

    If DALLAS should win their afternoon game in Philly, the same “planetary alignment” scenario as described above would apply. If all 4 events happen, the winning Dallas will pick after the winning Texans. If 3 events, we tie. If 2 or fewer, Dallas will pick before us.

    If WASHINGTON loses in their afternoon game at home against the NY Giants, a similar scenario as with Dallas must play out. In this case, all four of these must occur: BAL and NYJ lose, and TB and SEA win. If so, the 6-10 Texans pick before 6-10 WAS. If only three of these occur, we would tie with WAS and go to the coin flip. If only two occur, the losing Redskins will pick before the winning Texans. This (in combination with the above) is the scenario that yields our worst possible selection, 13th place.



    My prediction, based on what I believe will happen in the Sunday games is we will win against JAC, and move from the 8th position to pick 12th. If you don’t like this and want to improve our draft position, root for the following:

    EARLY GAMES: Root for CIN, BUF, CLE, NO, and DET to win, win, win!!
    In the NO vs. TB early game, a NO win helps in tie breakers against Dallas, and a TB win helps in tie breakers against Washington. Since Dallas factors into both Texans-lose and Texans-win scenarios, I’m rooting for NO to win.
    LATE GAMES: Root for ARZ, DAL, TEN, and WAS to win.
    And for the purpose of draft placement, HOU to lose.
    NIGHT GAME: If necessary (based on Houston earlier win), root for SEA to win.

    I will provide an update after the early games are decided, then again after the late afternoon games.

    All of the above was derived by my best math skills, and composed while drinking. If someone has issue with these “facts”, please present your contradiction for consideration. By the way, what tight ends do y’all think will be available when we pick?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2010
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