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"Here's how the Texans can still lose the Division"

I

IDEXAN

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The Texans are 8-3 and have a two-game division lead over Tennessee with just five games to go.

The odds certainly are in favor of Houston earning its first playoff berth.

However, there are unlikely scenarios in which the Titans can overtake the Texans to win the AFC South.

ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky goes into the complete detail here, but here are a couple major bullet points.

The Titans must finish with a better overall record than the Texans, obviously — meaning the Texans would have to finish 0-5 or 1-4 while the Titans went 4-1 or 5-0.
Or, if they both finish with equal records, the Titans pretty much need the Texans to lose to the winless Colts.
And, of course, the Titans would have to beat the Texans here in town on New Year’s Day.
Here are the remaining schedules for the Texans and Titans with the opponents’ records:

Houston

Dec. 4 vs. Atlanta (7-4), Dec. 11 at Cincinnati (7-4), Dec. 18 vs. Carolina (3-8), Dec. 22 at Indianapolis (0-11), Jan. 1 vs. Tennessee (6-5)

Tennessee

Dec. 4 at Buffalo (5-6), Dec. 11 vs. New Orleans (8-3), Dec. 18 at Indianapolis (0-11), Dec. 24 vs. Jacksonville (3-8), Jan. 1 at Houston (8-3)
http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2011/11/heres-how-the-texans-can-still-lose-the-division/
****
If Matt Schaub was still healthy and starting Sunday in Relaint, I doubt that this article would have been written ? However and under the circumstances which includes the first NFL start of rookie and 5th round Draft pick TJ Yates instead of Schaub this Sunday, lets just call this topic of the Texans failing to get into the playoffs at this point of the season the proverbial elephant in the room. It's there whether you want to admit it's presense or not ?
 
Is it possible that we will still lose the division... Yes.

However, I think that is highly unlikely. Yates looked. Dry good when he first stepped on the field last Sunday. Kubiak did the wise thing of protecting his confidence.

If Yates started throwing picks we would have lost that game and Yates would have become gun shy. I am excited to see how this all plays out.
 
Realistically the Titans can go 4-1 losing only to the Saints.

Realistically the Texans can go 1-4 only winning against the Colts.

So yeah - there is still a realistic chance that the Texans lose the division. If we lose the next two games the pressure is really on to beat the Panthers. I really don`t want an all or nothing game against the Titans.

We are not in the playoffs yet - and depending on how Yates turn out we very well might finish 9-7 and be on the outside looking in again.

But I still believe we at least finish 10-6 - with 12-4 still a possibility...
 
Discussing the "What If" stuff is what we do here. But my take is we win the division. Period. I honestly just don't see the Texans screwing off what they've accomplished so far this season by blowing it now. I just don't see it.

Titans, at best, will go 4-1 putting them at 10-6. All the Texans have to do is beat Carolina and Indy and lose their other three games (including the last game with the Titans) we'll also be 10-6 owning the tie breaker.

The Titans are not going to go 5-0 to end the season, they aren't. And even if they did, we just have to win the last three games after losing to Atlanta and the Bengals.

We are going to the playoffs this year, you can count on that. It's what we do once we get there you should be worried about.
 
LikeMike said:
Realistically the Titans can go 4-1 losing only to the Saints.

Realistically the Texans can go 1-4 only winning against the Colts.

So yeah - there is still a realistic chance that the Texans lose the division. If we lose the next two games the pressure is really on to beat the Panthers. I really don`t want an all or nothing game against the Titans.
Click to expand...

In this worst case scenario....the Texans still make the playoffs and win the division with a 5-1 divisional record...and that last game against the Titans still means nothing
 
TexanFan881 said:
In this worst case scenario....the Texans still make the playoffs and win the division with a 5-1 divisional record...and that last game against the Titans still means nothing
Click to expand...

How so? If I´m not mistaken, that would mean the Texans end up with a 9-7 record, the Titans with a 10-6 record - so the Titans win the division, no questions asked about a tiebreaker. Our magic number right now is 3 - if the Titans win out we need 3 wins; if the Titans lose 1 game we need to win 2; if the Titans lose 2 we need to win 1 - and so on.
 
IDEXAN said:
The Texans are 8-3 and have a two-game division lead over Tennessee with just five games to go.

The odds certainly are in favor of Houston earning its first playoff berth.

However, there are unlikely scenarios in which the Titans can overtake the Texans to win the AFC South.

ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky goes into the complete detail here, but here are a couple major bullet points.

The Titans must finish with a better overall record than the Texans, obviously — meaning the Texans would have to finish 0-5 or 1-4 while the Titans went 4-1 or 5-0.
Or, if they both finish with equal records, the Titans pretty much need the Texans to lose to the winless Colts.
And, of course, the Titans would have to beat the Texans here in town on New Year’s Day.
Here are the remaining schedules for the Texans and Titans with the opponents’ records:

Houston

Dec. 4 vs. Atlanta (7-4), Dec. 11 at Cincinnati (7-4), Dec. 18 vs. Carolina (3-8), Dec. 22 at Indianapolis (0-11), Jan. 1 vs. Tennessee (6-5)

Tennessee

Dec. 4 at Buffalo (5-6), Dec. 11 vs. New Orleans (8-3), Dec. 18 at Indianapolis (0-11), Dec. 24 vs. Jacksonville (3-8), Jan. 1 at Houston (8-3)
http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2011/11/heres-how-the-texans-can-still-lose-the-division/
****
If Matt Schaub was still healthy and starting Sunday in Relaint, I doubt that this article would have been written ? However and under the circumstances which includes the first NFL start of rookie and 5th round Draft pick TJ Yates instead of Schaub this Sunday, lets just call this topic of the Texans failing to get into the playoffs at this point of the season the proverbial elephant in the room. It's there whether you want to admit it's presense or not ?
Click to expand...

As much as I dislike PK, he did qualify his blog by stating that it would a highly unlikely scenario and that he didn't even believe that it could happen.
 
The Texans not winning the division this year would be like the Texans winning the division when we had the worst defense in the league. This team is just too good, has too good a defense, plays good to decent and sometimes outstanding special teams, and has too balanced an offensive unit. It's not like we are in week 3. We all know who is who by now...and the Texans are way better than the Titans. Nobody else can even sniff the title.
 
Booooooooooooo.

Mods please delete the thread, don't even want to think about it.

Unfortunately its a real possibility, but I'm riding the "TJ just wins games" train until the end of the season.
 
One of the things I find disturbing about this thread is that there seems to be an assumption that losing to Atlanta and Cincy is a foregone conclusion.
 
LikeMike said:
How so? If I´m not mistaken, that would mean the Texans end up with a 9-7 record, the Titans with a 10-6 record - so the Titans win the division, no questions asked about a tiebreaker. Our magic number right now is 3 - if the Titans win out we need 3 wins; if the Titans lose 1 game we need to win 2; if the Titans lose 2 we need to win 1 - and so on.
Click to expand...

My bad, shouldn't be posting so early in the morning. You're right. :facepalm:
 
the only way the Texans don't win the division is if we traded Wade Phillips for Frank Bush.
 
ziggy29 said:
One of the things I find disturbing about this thread is that there seems to be an assumption that losing to Atlanta and Cincy is a foregone conclusion.
Click to expand...

Yep. These are two teams that have looked shaky at times. The patriots/Ravens/Steelers/Packers aren't walking through that door until play off time.
 
ziggy29 said:
One of the things I find disturbing about this thread is that there seems to be an assumption that losing to Atlanta and Cincy is a foregone conclusion.
Click to expand...
yeah, it's losing franchise syndrome. Every time your franchise plays a decent team you assume a loss, and cheer up the others by saying we will beat the bad teams on the schedule so that's ok. You don't see this mentality with winning franchises.

Earlier this season I was commenting on players as if it was still last season. I talked to infantrycak on the phone and I told him that after a few games I looked at my posts and figured I was living in the past. I had to re-look at what I was seeing and reassess what I was looking at instead of hanging on to last years observations. Case in point - Brian Cushing. I was hanging on to his disappointing Soph season a bit too long early in the year instead of focusing on what is going on now. I think many in our fan base is just used to losing to good teams. They have to stop holding on to their old perception of this team imo.
 
Remember that whole discussion about the first Titans game this year being a "Must Win".

It may very well turn out to be the case going down the stretch. Good thing we capitalized on it.
 
I find it highly improbably that the Texans lose to Carolina at home or at Indy (god, how funny is that last one). If we win both of those games (Especially the Indy one) the Titans are in sort of a deep hole, because at worst we'll finish 5-1 in our division.

Every game though is a big game, but we do have some room for error. And with the Falcons missing half their secondary things are shaping up nicely. They may just play to escape Houston without injury, and live to fight again.
 
ziggy29 said:
One of the things I find disturbing about this thread is that there seems to be an assumption that losing to Atlanta and Cincy is a foregone conclusion.
Click to expand...

I don't know if it's a foregone conclusion. It's not for me.

But if we are going to lose it's more likely that we lose those two.
 
The importance of our remaining games go in this order:

1. Tennessee Titans - Obvious, win for us; loss for them, head-to-head would be 2-0 us.
2. Indianapolis Colts - Division, conference and common opponent game.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - Conference and common opponent game.
4. Atlanta Falcons - common opponent game (better record than CAR).
5. Carolina Panthers - common opponent game (worse record than ATL).

I'd rather not get into a tie breaking situation, even though we would win. I want to go ahead and win the division because we won more games than them. I would LOVE for us to beat both Indy and Tennessee to finish 6-0 in the division and go to the playoffs!
 
I do not feel this thread is necessary, Chicken Little.

ChickenLittle.jpg
 
How about if Monday morning our 2-game lead is reduced to one because we lost to ATL (as expected), the Titans had upset Buffalo, and there are strong indications coming out of Indy that Peyton will be ready to play us on that Thursday night game ? Would that start to make you nervous ?
 
IDEXAN said:
How about if Monday morning our 2-game lead is reduced to one because we lost to ATL (as expected), the Titans had upset Buffalo, and there are strong indications coming out of Indy that Peyton will be ready to play us on that Thursday night game ? Would that start to make you nervous ?
Click to expand...
no, why would it? Two game advantage on the inferior Titans. Peyton won't make an awful team great.
 
i think tenn losses this week up in Western NY I still think buffalo is a good team esp when playing at home like boomer says they are going to circle the wagons and get a W for there fans at home

so tenn will lose at buffalo and saints and that will pretty much take them out of the race
 
b0ng said:
What? Is this a hypothetical or. . . do you have a link for it at least?
Click to expand...

Colts quarterback Peyton Manning planned to undergo scans Wednesday in Indianapolis to see whether the fusion of his neck vertebrae is complete, and doctors then will determine the next step in his rehabilitation.
**
Once Manning's doctors and the Colts' medical staff have reviewed the results of Wednesday's tests, Manning should know whether he can resume throwing and possibly return to the field this season.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7298954/peyton-manning-indianapolis-colts-expect-exam-results-week
 
Fortunately, with the way this year's team is built, we do not need a QB to carry to the load to win games. I don't think the Titans win out, so we will need to win 2 out of 5. That's doable.

I have no doubt that Kubiak & Co. will game plan to our strengths. We have some really great things to focus on: no. 1 defense, awesome running game, and Andre Johnson and solid offensive weapons.

Yates will need to throw the ball this week. ATL will load the box to stop our run game in order to force the pass. But with the way the offense is designed, there will be guys open to make plays. You cannot double everyone. Double AJ and Foster and Daniels open up. Load the box and they bootleg to get Foster or a WR in the clear.

Yates can do this. I really believe it. He'll just need to avoid costly mistakes, but even then this team has the maturity and belief in itself to overcome adversity.
 
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