Game 4...What To Expect?...Indianapolis Colts!

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by JamTex, Sep 25, 2018.

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  1. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    COMPLETIONS PERCENTAGES

    Luck 68.5% 662yds 5.3 yd/pass

    Watson 59.4% 871 yds 8.2 yd/pass


    Interesting to look at 2018 Luck and Watson in regard to the below:

    *******************************************************************************************

    Next Generation Stats
    The Limitations of Completion Percentage (Comp Pct)


    [​IMG]


    In each of the last two seasons, a quarterback has broken the single-season Completion Percentage record. Sam Bradford set a new record in 2016 (71.6%) only to be broken by Drew Brees one season later (72.0%). Can we assume Bradford and Brees are two of the most accurate passers in NFL history? Or does their propensity to target higher probability passes inflate their Comp Pct? Bradford averaged 6.8 air yards per pass attempt in his record-breaking season, 1.7 yards below the 3-year average (8.5 air yards per attempt). Brees averaged 6.3 air yards per pass attempt, 2.2 yards below average. Adding context to Comp Pct to account for pass difficulty tells us more about a quarterback than traditional box score statistics.
     
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  2. PolarBear

    PolarBear Rookie

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    Doc - diverging slightly to Luck's extremely low yards per pass this season, and the fact that his coach pulled him for his backup to fire a long hail-mary pass, how bad do you think Luck's shoulder still is relatively to pre-injury?
     
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  3. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    As much as it's being downplayed, it would not surprise me if this is as good as it gets.......and, in my opinion, as the season progresses with more and more wear and tear (especially if he tries to push his passing distance beyond his shoulder's capabilities), it is only likely to go down hill.
     
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  4. ShinobiMusashi

    ShinobiMusashi Rookie

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    How many games did Bradford play last year though? Also Ken Anderson 1982 was the strike shortened season so only 9 games, it's going to be easier to have a higher percentage like that in fewer games. Drew Brees in 2009, 2011, and 2017 those are impressive because it's for a full season.
     
  5. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    This is why this game needs to be a win. If and that's a big if this team can pull it together, beating Colts now and then later after Luck has lossed it, and win to split with Titans could have Jags coming to Houston in a very important game for both after Christmas even more so if we beat Jags in Florida in first game. Hand me another cup of Koolaid.
     
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  6. texanhead08

    texanhead08 Hall of Fame

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    Shoulder injuries are usually death sentences for a baseball pitcher. I would assume it might be the same for a QB especially when you factor in he is going to get hit on it again at some point.
     
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  7. HouTx11

    HouTx11 All Pro

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    I was thinking the exact same thing.
     
  8. Seegara

    Seegara Hall of Fame

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    I hate losing to those Dolts more than anything. But the line favors them by 1 point. If the Toros win the toss they better elect to receive, for if they defer, the Dolts will open the 2nd half with a successful onside kick if they need to.
     
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  9. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss MVP

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    What was their team record during those years? If those higher probability passes help win games, I'm all for it. Do whatever it takes to win.

    Those more difficult passes Watson is chunking (if that is in fact the reason for the disparity) ain't helping us win games.
     
  10. DocBar

    DocBar Hall of Fame

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    Will this be degenerative like Schaub's foot where it will feel ok at the start of a season and just get worse as the season goes on?
     
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  11. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    That would be an expected natural history.
     
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  12. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    Pitchers throw from a stationary position to a stationary target. Footballs are heavier.............and QBs have to be throwing them in a myriad of directions to players moving in a myriad of directions.............while the QB must commonly throw while having to move himself. The shoulder on a QB vs a pitcher must be much more versatile while being at least just as durable..
     
  13. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    When you look at the completion percentages of Watson and Luck posted above, keep in mind that Texans opponents thus far have a 73.3% completion percentage against us.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2018
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  14. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

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    |That's certainly depressing
     
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  15. banned1976

    banned1976 American

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    I don’t expect it to improve. Texanballer can probably confirm this, I used to be an NFL stat junkie; I was a Quality Engineer after all. Now I just eyeball the team and I can only guess the Texans defense is bottom five at 3rd down stops.
     
  16. infantrycak

    infantrycak Admin & Mod Staff Member

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    15th at 38% allowed.
     
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  17. texanhead08

    texanhead08 Hall of Fame

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    Just like when people were gushing over how good the front 7 could be I said they won't sack the qb every play the guys on the back end scared me then and they scare me now. The Giants used crossing patterns over and over and we never did stop it last week.
     
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  18. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    So nothing has has really changed from last yr.
     
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  19. texanhead08

    texanhead08 Hall of Fame

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    Pretty much we need CB's just as bad as we need 2 good OT's.
     
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  20. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Give me 3 OL, in Rd.1 and Rd.2 two OL. I'm tired of watching the franchise QB getting the crap beat out of him week after week. If you want a CB trade back into RD. 2 using your 3rd/4th rd picks and spend that cap space to get a couple of FA CB's even if that means trading/letting Clowney walk.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2018
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