Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by CloakNNNdagger, Jul 18, 2012.

  1. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    Thanks to Texans Chick who posted this on her blog. Some of the answers you will agree with......others you won't. Either way, makes you think.
    ****************************************************************************

     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 22, 2012
  2. TejasTom

    TejasTom Heisenwatt

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    Thanks CND

    You could argue? Are you sure the author's name isn't Rivers Mc"Clown"?

    Not defending KJ but Brees put up the most yards ever, he obviously reduced a lot of legitimate starting DBs to rubble.

    I think statistically last year showed Schaub is more important to total points scored.

    I'll take a Super Bowl anyway I can get it.

    Dan Pastorini predicted Top 5 D on air before season started.
     
  3. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    Interesting stuff.
     
  4. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    I still don't buy this concept/superstition that our D regresses in year 2.

    A lot of myths are going to be busted in 2012.
     
  5. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    Its the "safe" bet. Its really a silly prediction because we were statistically the #2 total ranked defense last season. So to say "they will regress" is an easy prediction --- unless we move up to #1, they'll be correct.

    Its like the Madden curse-- you give a guy notoriety after a breakout season, he is more than likely going to regress a little the next year while everyone keys on him

    We have a tougher schedule, so I dont doubt we'll move down a little
     
  6. buddyboy

    buddyboy All Pro

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    I think this is fair. I also thought it was interesting, and true, that we as fans expect a very linear improvement. The NFL (and sports in general) don't work that way. Our team could be every bit as good as last year and will probably have a worse record, even if injuries don't hit as hard. We as fans should be careful about expectations: we were 10-6 last year, so we expect that, or better, this year, or we've regressed. Not necessarily.
     
  7. disaacks3

    disaacks3 Site Contributor

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    I stopped reading after
    There's just no...freaking...way.
     
  8. Norg

    Norg -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

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    i know we even loss key starters Sharpton -who bassically took 50% or more of demco snaps

    Manning and our Up and coming punter Hartmen ... and Linehart played like 4 snaps and boom he was done LOL

    and like usual i think Mike Brisel had a broken leg and was still playing
     


  9. Scooter

    Scooter Funky

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    as far as total number of injuries, we were actually fairly healthy last season. it just so happened that those we did have were to our star players, as opposed to having 20 backups landing on IR.
     
  10. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    Agreed, which is why I call horse**** on the author for his attempt to poo-poo the injuries we DID have. It was rationalize and justify with that author.

    Who else loses their starting QB, went without their star RB (and the backup, too, for awhile) for four games, AND their #1 WR for basically the whole season, with the RG on a bum leg and the star Safety with a bum leg and out for several games...Mario Williams gone for the year VERY early in the season...and STILL wins the AFCS and gets to the second round of the playoffs riding the arm of a rookie QB who played scout team for half the season in a lockout shortened year?

    That'd be my response to the author. I'd say, "Dude you are so full of **** it's coming out of your ears and I need a rain poncho to keep it off of me. Just stop already."

    It's as if event though we kicked major ass last year...we can't possibly do it again. These authors are in shock, they're trying to find ways to explain away the success we had in 2011 and that there's probably around 8 or 9 wins for us in 2012???? LOL. They are on crack. Bad crack.
     
  11. bayoudreamn

    bayoudreamn Veteran

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    I'm going to spend the same amount of time worrying about the accuracy of this article as I am worrying about that meteor that's about to hit earth and blow everything up.
     
  12. Thorn

    Thorn Dirty Old Man

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    The fact is, at some point in time that meteor will hit the earth. That's the way solar systems work. Still, I'd give that a better chance of happening in my lifetime than the believability of most sport articles. :lol:
     
  13. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    uh...it was uh...something to read during a slow Texans news time...uh
     
  14. b0ng

    b0ng Ooops

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    I think there are some good points and bad points with the interview. The defense not being as good can almost be assumed however, there's nary a defense on our schedule that could hold a candle to the Steelers or the Ravens (maybe the Jets but they weren't as good last year). The NFCN was kind of a joke in terms of defensive play in 2011. I think the offense is going to have a much easier go of it in 2012.

    As far as the injuries are tough to really guage because we had so many, but we weren't the only ones. Hopefully we can weather whatever garbage lady luck hurl our way.
     
  15. ObsiWan

    ObsiWan Site Contributor

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    Not to worry you but....

    Thorn's right. At least the meteorite predictions are based on science.
    :D
     
  16. NastyNate

    NastyNate I go kerplunk

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    You guys gotta lighten up. Everything they're projecting is computer modeled based on 2011 data. I thought it was good insight and liked the statistical standpoint. Defense I see settling in around #6 or 7 this year with an improvement in the offense. Should be a 9-10 win regular season and hope to be clicking come January.
     
  17. Texans_Chick

    Texans_Chick Utopian Dreamer

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    Seemed to me that it was rather fair.

    If you actually read the FOA books, their projections are on a continuum. With different percentage chances going to different number of wins.

    They still predict the Texans to win the AFC South.

    Their numbers are concerned about the health of Schaub/Andre Johnson.

    Their numbers project a tougher out of division schedule than last year.

    I don't think the FOA author (A Texan fan who has charted Texans games for years), was being dismissive of last year's injuries.

    And he acknowledged basic regression model stuff from his subjective view of things.
     
  18. Hervoyel

    Hervoyel The Right Track

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    I don't either. I think we're better this year than we were last year. I expect players we didn't think would contribute as much as they did to improve even more in their second seasons and I really don't think Mario & DeMeco being gone will even be noticed.

    I think we either stay at the level we are at or we get better. If the offense stays healthy and scores that's going to put even more pressure on opposing offenses and Wade's defense is going to use that to good effect.
     
  19. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Stats are a funny thing. Go back & look at how many top 5 teams have repeated as top 5 over the last 5 years. There aren't many.

    SOS.... a lot of people don't want to talk about it, but it's there. We went into the season with a lot of bad offensive teams on our schedule. They turned out to be worse than projected, thanks to our D, but they were bad across the board regardless.

    We didn't slow down the Saints & I think Baltimore put 30 on us.

    In 2012, we're going to be playing more potent offenses. It only stands to reason our stats are not going to look as good as they did in 2011. I doubt we'll be top 5. Hopefully, we'll be top 10 in scoring.
     
  20. paycheck71

    paycheck71 Hall of Fame

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    I agree with this post completely. It's even possible that the defense will be better, but will still rank lower because of the SOS and the fact that other defenses may make bigger strides or face weaker offences.

    One thing though, you can't be on both sides of the SOS argument. In the 12-4 prediction thread you were arguing that we have a more favorable SOS this year (which I disagree with). :)
     

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