Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Texans_Chick, Aug 23, 2011.

  1. Texans_Chick

    Texans_Chick Utopian Dreamer

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    Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win AFC South. Really.

    Predicts 9-7 highest probability to win division.

    Working on a followup post to this.

    Football Outsiders is not one of the publications that says the Texans are going to the playoffs every year. This is the first year they've predicted Texans winning. Last year, they predicted 6 wins or less.
     
  2. Jackie Chiles

    Jackie Chiles Hall of Fame

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    Hopefully they hit on us like they did on the Chiefs last year.
     
  3. ObsiWan

    ObsiWan Site Contributor

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    At least their bandwagon ticket is based on some science. Checkout these Bleacher Report predictions.
     
  4. ArlingtonTexan

    ArlingtonTexan Moderator Staff Member

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    They have always been one of the more pessimistic outfits towards the Texans, fwiw.
     
  5. DocBar

    DocBar Hall of Fame

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    I'm cool with this. It's not like there'll be an asterisk by the div. champ banner in the rafters of Relaint.
     
  6. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Didn't they predict our 6-10 season because of injuries? I've been trying to find your blog about that, but couldn't find it.
     
  7. Crushing56

    Crushing56 Rookie

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    Predictions are like mock drafts. They mean nothing.
     
  8. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    I should have known. You provided a link in your story. Not that I support McNair's decision to keep GK & Rick Smith (I would've swore one of the two would be run out by now), but this might have gone into his decision somewhat.

    Offensively, Gary has been able to be successful despite injury or what ever small problem popped up. Defensively, Gary & Frank Bush did a pitiful job just keeping pace.

    They were hit early & often last year. Ben Tate out for the season..... no affect, we're still a top 10 rushing team, top 3 offense, & have the leading rusher. Duane Brown suspended for 4 games, no affect Schaub threw for 4,000 yards & was among the least sacked QBs of 2010. We missed Andre for what, 3 games?

    We lose Brian Cushing for 4 games... we can't stop crap. We lose Bullman before the season started, not a gamer, you wouldn't think it would be a big deal, but he was a major part of our DL rotation. We lose Connor Barwin game 1... We lose Demeco after 6 games, we lose Mario after 8 games. We never recovered, never stabilized.

    I'm not making excuses for Gary. I don't think he should still be here. Just trying to put the pieces together, for why he is.
     
  9. Texans_Chick

    Texans_Chick Utopian Dreamer

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    Actually, if you read the entire 6-10 prediction for 2010, it was mostly based on three main factors: 1. youth of defensive starters; 2. noting that the Texans were unusually healthy in 2009 so they predicted that 2010 might be unusually unhealthy, 3. Very difficult predicted strength of schedule. In a mostly parity league, actual strength of schedule matters a great deal between playoff and non-playoff teams. But the long term forecast for the Texans in the 2010 FOA was very positive.

    One of the reasons why FOA is high on the Texans this year is continuity on their offense and offensive scheme. That would have gone away with no Kubiak.
     
  10. Texans_Chick

    Texans_Chick Utopian Dreamer

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    This is worth pointing out. These are not the people who predict the Texans are going to the playoffs every year.
     
  11. bo orlando

    bo orlando Veteran

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    They were also high on Wade's history of turning around defenses in his first year. Big reason is probably the simple bounce-back factor of a bad defense patching up some of its holes, but they also noted Wade's scouting acumen. Down year for the AFC south was also emphasized.
     
  12. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Won't really be much bounce back. We've consistently been near the bottom defensively. 2009 was the fluke.
     
  13. DocBar

    DocBar Hall of Fame

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    The Football Outsiders article was pretty spot on. I'm more than happy with this years prediction. I say the Texans win 2 SB's in the next 4 yrs. I will personally kill the crow I eat if I'm wrong.
     
  14. Texans_Chick

    Texans_Chick Utopian Dreamer

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    I think people will like the follow up post. Interesting Q&A. Will leave link here when I am done with it.
     
  15. GuerillaBlack

    GuerillaBlack Hall of Fame

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    As they should. The Texans are arguably the most talented young team in the league, imo. And IIRC, our oldest starter on the entire team is AJ, who just turned 30 last month. They just need to make it into the playoffs once and it'll roll on from there. This HAS to be the year though. Has to be. Last decade, the AFC South belonged to the Colts. This decade, it should belong to the Texans. Titans and Jags are poor teams, and the Colts are falling off.
     
  16. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    But the talent (AJ, Foster, Schaub, Daniels, etc.) would have remained. I think any coordinator worth a darn could put together a top 10 offense out of that group. And had McNair pulled in a high profile coach like Cowher, I'm sure Football Outsiders would have looked favorably on the decision.
    The first 12 games (5-7) were the norm.

    If Kubiak can't win the division this season, he never will. The Texans should be contending for the Super Bowl, by now. Win, already.
     
    Double Barrel likes this.
  17. TexansFanatic

    TexansFanatic Extremist

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    Oh my. This is huge news. Every year I get fired up for the Texans and every year TC posts a link to Football Outsiders telling me this isn't the year for the Texans.

    This can only mean this is finally the year. Hallelujah!

    Thanks for posting this, TC.
     
  18. bo orlando

    bo orlando Veteran

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    what I/they mean is that when a defense finishes poorly enough that it needs to get a new coordinator, particularly a high-profile one like wade, it will also try to address some of its obvious holes through the draft and free agency (and injured guys might become healthy if that was the problem). this alone can make a bad defense into a mediocre one or a mediocre one into a decent one. even if we'd kept whatshisname as coordinator, the joseph & manning signings, demeco's return to health, drafting of jj watt, quinn moving to safety--- all these things would likely boost the performance of the defense. the book also noted that wade's skill as a personnel evaluator is likely another big factor in achieving this end.

    either way, it's uncanny how much defenses have improved in the first year literally everywhere wade's been. gives me hope far more than anything else i've read about how the defense so far.
     
  19. House of Pain

    House of Pain Knee-jerkless

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    That may be true, but there is no way they target those players unless Wade was in the war room. Don't take it from me, take it from the NFL coach with the best damn hair you've ever seen:

    Which hammers down the suspicion that Rick Smith CAN BE an excellent GM but he needs coaches and staff to tell him which players to target.
     
  20. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    I would suggest there has been growth in his (Rick Smith) process, from early failures 07/08 to ever better drafting & smarter free agent acquisitions. Not coincidentally the hiring of better assistant coaches has impacted bottom line for player applications. In the end it may be nothing more than continuity in their system, one with many scars & ugly patches but just goes to show sometimes perseverance does pay off in the end.

    :wesmantexanfan:
     

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