Dutch's 2013 Texans Offseason Projections and Info

Discussion in 'Mock Draft Talk' started by Dutchrudder, Dec 14, 2012.

  1. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder COOL BEANS!

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    Corrosion asked me to make a thread about the Texans 2013 offseason, because the info is good for making mock drafts. So I thought I could put together a little something to help you all out when making mocks and have an easy reference for FAQs like compensatory picks, UFAs/RFAs, and some cap space guesses (yes that's what they all are).

    I made an Excel spreadsheet for this and took some screenshots to make it easy to read and display. The forum software doesn't do well with Excel copy/paste data, so if changes need to be made, it might be later on in the thread. Anyways, feel free to poke holes in my arguments or offer feedback on whatever. I'm putting it in this forum specifically for Mock Draft help.

    Texans 2013 Free Agents:
    [​IMG]

    We have 21 total UFAs, 13 on defense, 6 on offense, and 2 special teams. As you can see, we have several starters that are not under contract next year. By my own estimations, I would list 7 of these 21 as key contributors to this season: Quin S, Barwin OLB, Dobbins ILB, McCain CB, Cody DT, Caldwell OG, Casey TE (5 defense, 2 offense). When constructing mock drafts, I think it's important to see where we are losing depth, and its clear that the defense will be losing quite a bit if these players aren't retained. Before anyone says it, I don't consider either kicker to be a key contributor because they are easily replaced.

    I included their salary and cap hits for this year to show how much they cost this year, but at the moment I don't have an exact estimate of capspace for next year. At this point, I think we will have 8-10 million free after the new Brown and Schaub contracts, but I feel that is slightly optomistic. JJo also restructured this year and pushed 1.3 million into each of the next three years. I think 8 million is a solid cap space projection, assuming nothing else changes. Remember though, about 3-5 million of that will need to be retained for signing draft picks, depending on how many high picks we have. (trade ups cost more than just the draft picks and players used, you guarantee a lot more money to high picks)

    Cap Casualties:

    So given that we will likely be up against the cap once again, I have identified the most likely candidates to be cut or restructured. Here are the costs and savings for each.

    [​IMG]

    The Guaranteed Pay for each of them is signing bonuses plus restructured money. Antonio's number is a bit higher than other sites may show because he restructured in 2011 to help us sign JJo and Manning. Wade doesn't have much left on his deal, but cutting him actually saves more money than Antonio. As far as I know, none of Walter's money is guaranteed, if anyone knows otherwise please post it.

    Clearly something has to be done about Walter and Antonio. Antonio is not worth 9.8 million nor the 8.5 million that he was originally scheduled to make. Walter isn't worth 4.5 million and should take another paycut or head to Baltimore. The bottom line is that we could save 13.5 million by simply cutting these guys. That could make our cap space go up to about 20 million, which would enable us to sign retain our own free agents and possibly sign a new impact player or two.

    Compensatory Picks:

    In addition to the 7 picks that the Texans have in the 2013 draft, they will have 4 more compensatory picks coming their way. The Texans lost 4 qualifying free agents and signed zero. Yes, zero qualifying free agents signed.

    Well, I have been looking into comp picks a bit more since the topic came up again. I have to amend my initial projection to a 3,5,6,6. Here's where I'm at:

    [​IMG]


    Mario is a lock for a 3rd.

    I believe Brisiel will be worth a 5th due to his 16 starts, 4 million a year AAV (Contract's Average Annual Value) and because he played the majority of the Raiders snaps this year.

    I'm dropping Dreesen down to a 6th because his contract value is too low, and the Broncos didn't go as far in the playoffs as I thought they would. He had average TE stats (41 rec, 356 yards, 5 TDs), and played about 75% of their snaps. Had the Broncos made the AFCC or Super Bowl, I believe he would have moved up a round.

    I'm putting Jason Allen as a 6th, but he's a wild card. His contract would normally be worth a 5th on AAV alone, but his snaps played is so low, that I think he will be dinged a round or two. I originally put him as a 7th because he started zero games, and only played defense for 3 snaps, the rest was special teams. I don't know how this will work out, he could be anywhere from a 5th to a 7th, but I'll take the conservative route and say 6th.

    I found some info on compensatory picks last year with AAV ranges for the picks and this was the matrix for 2012. These ranges can change, but we could have anywhere from a 3, 5,5,6 to a 3,6,7,7.

    3 - $6.5/$7 million and greater
    4 - $5 to $6.5/$7 million
    5 - $4 to $5 million
    6 - $2.5/2.75 to $4 million
    7 - $1 to $2.5/2.75 million

    Compensatory Pick Requirements:


    Players must be signed before June 1st in order to affect comp picks
    Signing bonuses can be up to 65k without effecting the comp picks.
    Players over 10 years accrued no longer count against comp picks.
    Players must sign for more than their veteran minimum to nullify other comp picks.

    2012 salaries are as follows:
    Shayne Graham: 2012: $925,000
    Bradie James: 2012: $825,000
    Donnie Jones: 2012: $825,000
    Alan Ball: 6/2/2012: $700,000 (June 1st is cutoff date for comp picks)
    Justin Forsett: 6/2/2012: Signed a one-year contract. (June 1st is cutoff date for comp picks)
    Ryan Harris: 9/1/2012: Signed a one-year, $700,000 contract. (June 1st is cutoff date for comp picks)

    2012 NFL vet minimum salaries
    Rookie - $390,000
    1 year - $465,000
    2 year - $540,000
    3 year - $615,000
    4-6 year - $700,000
    7-9 year - $825,000
    10+ year - $925,000

    Long story short, nobody the Texans signed qualified as a free agent.


    Practice Squad 2012:

    Another way to backfill depth is to call up practice squad players. Several of these guys have been with the team for a while and may be ready to step up to the 53 man roster. Currently we have these guys:

    [​IMG]

    I think Pleasant may take Demps spot on the roster next year. I would love to see one of the TEs develop into a solid blocker and save us a late round draft pick. If Mondek could develop more, maybe he could become our swing tackle and we could let Newton stay at RT. Lots of options to consider.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2013
  2. rmartin65

    rmartin65 I'm Score

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    Sorry rmartin, I can't insert a new post to this thread, so I'm commandeering your spot on the replies. ArlingtonTexan, you are next... :)
    - Dutch

    [​IMG]


    2012 Cap:

    So the first thing that might jump out at you is the 2012 cap number being 121,905,328. You might be thinking, "Dutch, you blithering son of a biatch! How can the Texans have a higher cap number than the actual cap of 120.6 million?"

    Well, in my analysis, I could not find any hard numbers on the cost of some of our IR'd vets: Kenyaron Fox, Rashon Harris, Tim Jamison, Rashad Butler and even Randy Bullock. I suspect that at least a couple of these are split contracts, but I couldn't find anything conclusive, so I'm counting them at the value that they would have otherwise been. If we were to assume a 50% split contract on each of them, their cap hits would collectively be reduced by 1,967,500, which would put the Texans just a hair under 120 million. It's also worth mentioning the fact that our current active roster is only costing the team 97.8 million. That's pretty cheap given the results, but it means we are drafting well and keeping costs down.

    The next thing that might jump out at you is the 2013 cap projection of $109,206,020, or in other words, 11.394 million in cap space (assuming 120.6m cap). You might be thinking to yourself, "Dutch this is great news, I take back all the awful things I said about you and your mother!" However, there is a catch. This projection only includes the 41 contracts that will count against the cap in 2013, so there are still 12 open spaces to fill on the 53 man roster, which will use at least 405k each. Here is the current minimum salary matrix:
    [​IMG]

    As you can see, everything is escalating 15k across the board (cap hit is 555k for vet minimum players). I think 500k per player is a reasonable estimate for these 12 spots, so that would be up to 6 million more taken away from the cap. That gives us a projected real cap value of 115.2 million, or about 5.4 million in extra free space, depending on how you want to look at it. You might be thinking to yourself, "Dammit Dutch, can't you let me bathe in the warmth of imagining the Texan's signing Mike Wallace and Dwight Freeney for just one minute before you come in and defenestrate my dreams!"

    No, sorry, I cannot do that =P

    But fear not! As mentioned in the OP, there is 13.5 million in cap cuts available to the team if needed, so it's not nearly as dire of a situation as it appears. Yes, we will be squeezed a bit next year, but we will not be in as bad of a situation as many other teams who do not have this flexibility.

    Dead Money:

    One of the toughest things to figure out in cap projections is dead money, the money left over from cutting players, trading them or if they retire. This is my current list of dead money projections:

    [​IMG]

    I pulled a good deal of this from Sporttrac, and I searched for what I could on the big names. You might be thinking, "Dutch, you inglorious halfwit nincompoop! How on earth does Demeco cost 9 million after we traded him??" Well, I'll let Alan Burge explain it:

    http://www.examiner.com/article/texans-continue-salary-purge-trade-ryans

    It appears that this is the case, but the good news is that it's a one-time cost. After this year, we will have cleared over 16 million in dead weight from the books and will use it to pay guys like Duane Brown and Matt Schaub into the future.

    Other guys that may not cost as much as listed are Eric Winston and Jacoby Jones. We know that both had a few years left on their deals when they were cut, but I'm not certain that we know how the money will be spread out. Winston had 2 million left on his deal, but he could have been designated a June 1st cut (he was cut in May), and that would split his 2m between 2012 and 2013.

    Personally, I'm not sold on the idea that Jacoby only had 1m guaranteed left on his deal. Another site mentions he will cost the Texans 2.5 million after his cut:
    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/nfl-rapidreports/18924788
    So it could be that he cost 1.25 million this year and next, or it could be wrong. I just don't have confirmation either way, so I'll roll with 1 million for now.

    Practice Squad:

    So, this often gets overlooked, but the Practice Squad guys can actually cost a bit. This year, it costs $5,700 per player, per week (17 regular season), plus each playoff week, and you can have up to 8 of these guys active at any time. Our current roster with cap hit projections:

    [​IMG]

    You may look at this and say yourself, "Dutch, you are as sharp as a bowling ball! There are 9 people on your list and the costs are going down from year to year!" Well, given the salary structure above, I'm projecting 2 weeks of playoff pay, and that will hopefully go up. That's why the 2012 figure is higher than 13/14. Also, Phillip Supernaw was placed on the Psquad Injured list in October, so I'm projecting 11 weeks of pay for him this year. That gives us a total of 929,100 on the season, which is subject to change. These are just baseline minimum projections though, teams are allowed to pay more than the minimum to players on the practice squad, but most don't. I have no sources showing that the Texans paid more than minimum for any of these players, but if anyone else sees something please post it!

    Edit: I now realize I still have Brice McCain on the active roster and not in the IR section. I'm not going to redo all those pics just for that, so whatever, but feel free to consider 1.333 million in the IR list instead of the active roster. This doesn't change the bottom line, unless he has something in his contract about going on IR.


    -------------------------

    rmartin65:
    Holy smokes, this is awesome! I must spread the reps, but I will get you for this one.

    I especially like your labeling of Fat Albert :spit:
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 18, 2013
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  3. ArlingtonTexan

    ArlingtonTexan Moderator Staff Member

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  4. Insideop

    Insideop Hall of Fame

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    I have to agree with martin65, this is an awesome post with a lot of info to digest! Rep to you Dutch!

    As for the label of "Fat Albert," that was pretty funny! :ahhaha:
     
  5. Wolf6151

    Wolf6151 Hall of Fame

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    I got you covered. Great job DR, this will take time to digest all the info. here.
     
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  6. 76Texan

    76Texan Hall of Fame

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    Good job. Dutch
     
  7. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder COOL BEANS!

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    Thanks guys, happy to help contribute to the cause :D

    I added some more info to the comp pick requirements, since I'm sure that will be discussed. I know a lot of people have been tossing out projections for the picks, but I'm certain we will have 4 picks coming our way (which is the max per team). We may end up with a 6th instead of a 5th for one of those, but I'm not sure which will change. The play-time factor is difficult to research and quantify, and I didn't really want to get too deep into that. A pair of 5ths would be nice though, they could net us our punter and fullback of the future.

    Side note, I honestly want to go lower on projected cap space for next year and make it closer to 6 million, but I haven't done all the math to figure that out yet. Also, there are three contracts that I can't quantify, Butler, Fox and Dashon Harris supposedly had split contracts and could move the number by up to 2.2 million lower.
     
  8. Insideop

    Insideop Hall of Fame

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    Regarding the "cap casualties" that would be tough to lose all 3 of them. I think if they only cut 1 it may be Wade Smith. Kubes really likes Walter's game, especially his blocking, and Antonio Smith is probably too valuable and hard to replace at this time. All 3 are over 30 now with Wade Smith and KW each being 31, so they definitely need to be grooming their replacements. To me, I think it would be easier to groom an OG rather than a DE or WR, but it does seem like Crick is coming along OK. Was hoping to see more out of the young WR's by this time although they seem to be playing more. Not sure about Wade's replacement (Brooks?) and how he's coming along.
     
  9. aussie_texan

    aussie_texan Hall of Fame

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    msr that was epic !!!!!!!
     
  10. aussie_texan

    aussie_texan Hall of Fame

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    i dont think we will get anything for jason allen. i remember a year or 2 ago we were hoping for a certain comp pick but got nothing. i agree on the others though
     
  11. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder COOL BEANS!

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    Doesn't matter, his deal qualifies the reqs. For comparison, the Packers got a 4th for Kampman, who barely played half a season. Lots of these guys suck, but still warrant a pick.
     
  12. aussie_texan

    aussie_texan Hall of Fame

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    it would be good if the NFL could release the formula for the comp picks. make life for us armchair GMs so much easier
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2012
  13. Insideop

    Insideop Hall of Fame

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    I still don't see this. A lot of people on here think Jones is bad and needs to be replaced. The coaches love him though and he has been very good at pinning guys inside the 20. I don't think he's going anywhere. Now the Kicker, that's another story. Just hope Bullock is ready next season and blows Graham off the field!
     
  14. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    Thanks man very helpful Need to find a way to save to my favorite without entire thread. Hopefully I can cut and past. Did not know that A. Smith's $6m in '13 was guaranteed? I could see them bonusing that out and lowering the hit.
     
  15. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    You know guys if you must spread rep then you can always rate thread. Just gave Dutch a Five star, for his excellent work :specnatz:

    I don't know its tough to cut players or let them walk via free agency like they did last season. Was this a trend or anomaly?

    Tough part for those of us who enjoy the mock draft process is that decisions will be faced & made before the draft that can influence (don't buy into BPA because need wins out end of day) construction of their draft board. Money is obviously a huge factor in this as well as teams scramble to work within salary constraints.

    To replace Cody Texans would need to spend a first round pick on a NT.
    To replace Antonio Smith Texans would have to spend 1st/2nd on a 5-tech DE.
    To replace Wade Smith Texans would have to spend 2nd/3rd on a OG.

    OR​

    They could trade for younger versions still under less costly contracts either under utilized in a bad situation or stuck behind entrenched starter like Myers was in Denver. Also via free agency, with another Wade Smith who I recall was in Kansas City. Texans paid to get Antonio, he has produced so they will continue to pay him most likely.

    Texans love Kevin Walter. He is the company man, already restructured contract once will probably have to do it again.

    Not to hijack your thread Dutch but based on crop of prospects, team need & cap ramifications I think Texans will be almost forced to look @ taking a replacement for Cody. A big, athletic run stopping DT with work ethic & smarts to actually elevate nose position. John Jenkins, Georgia.
     
  16. 76Texan

    76Texan Hall of Fame

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    I don't how to rate a thread. Can I just give him a neg rep just to be different? J/k

    Actually, I think I just saw something at the bottom, let me go try it now.
     
  17. 76Texan

    76Texan Hall of Fame

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    OK, 5 star it is :)

    Thanks for the tip, BL
     
  18. Bubbajwp

    Bubbajwp All Flopper

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    Can we sticky this thread during the offseason?
     
  19. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder COOL BEANS!

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    It's just my opinion, I don't mean to put down Donnie Jones as a player, but I think he's just average as a punter. If the team wants to keep him on the 53 man roster next year, I won't complain, but I think those late picks are perfect for getting a cheap punter. Could save over 100k a year in capspace by getting a punter with a 5th round comp pick, rather than signing a vet like Jones. It's certainly not high on my priority list right now.
     
  20. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder COOL BEANS!

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    Sorry about that, I screwed up with my original Cap Casualties sheet and made the guaranteed money look like a portion of salary. I meant to do two different things with the columns, and they just merged into one wrong one :( Now that I'm sober, I fixed it :D I updated the OP to reflect the new numbers of cap savings and hits. Dead money is also included, but the main thing is the savings is 13.5 million for cutting all three of them. Granted, that is the last thing I want the team to do, but having 20 million in free cap space next year would be incredible.

    [​IMG]

    I think Antonio Smith is a prime candidate for restructuring. He's 31 now, and could add 2 years to his deal at 2 million a year. Then we could convert 5 million of his 2013 base salary into signing bonus and spread that out over the 3 years. That would make him earn 2.67 million in 2013, and 3.67 million in 2014 and 15. His 2013 caphit would then become 6.47 million, which is much more reasonable than the 9.8. That would net us 3.33 million in 2013 cap savings, and lock him down for 2 more years while they try to groom a replacement.
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2012

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