Draft position

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by keyser, Dec 24, 2007.

  1. keyser

    keyser Hall of Fame

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    I know I should just wait a day for this (though the Denver/SD game won't affect what I write below), but I'm wanting to find a bright spot from the loss today. So, I took a look at the perennial "bright spot" for losing teams: the draft order.

    With only one game to go, there are 8 teams guaranteed to have worse records than us (5-10 or worse), and 12 guaranteed to have better records (9-6 or better). There are 12 teams within one game of us. So, that means we'll end up picking somewhere betwen 9th and 20th. Actually, I expect that the next tiebreaker after record (strength of schedule) is already determined enough that we can't get all those spots. Considering our division's record, I'm guessing our SoS is pretty high, meaning we'd be toward the later draft picks in any tiebreaker.

    If we win next week, there could be at most 8 teams at 8-8 with us. That means we'd end up picking between 13 and 20 (again, the actual range is probably narrower due to strength of schedule).

    If we lose next week, there could be at most 9 teams at 7-9 with us. That means we'd end up picking between 9 and 17.

    Actually, I'm surprised at the range of possible places we could end up - I thought it would be a lot narrower. And, I was hoping our draft position would be better - doing this analysis didn't help to ease the loss today...
     
  2. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    have to wait until tonight after the Denver/San Diego game, but I would be very surprised if they the Broncos beat (move to #18) the Chargers (remain @ #27th win or lose). of the 7-8 teams only Philadelphia has a tougher strength of shedule so even though the Texans lost to the Colts yesterday it didn't improve our draft position much (16th) & remain out of the Kennny Phillips sweepstakes.
     
  3. nero THE zero

    nero THE zero Hall of Fame

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    I know Kenny Phillips is supposed to be a good player and I know that safety has been a nagging need (like LT) for us but I just can't see how adding a first round pick over CC Brown/Glenn Earl would be a better improvement for us than a first round pick LT over Ephraim Salaam or a first round pick RB over Ahman Green/Ron Dayne/Darius Walker.

    Safety is an upgradeable position but we have much more pressing needs. I'd hate to see us pick a Kenny Phillips when there's a Rashard Mendenhal/Jonathan Stewart or a Ryan Clady/Jeff Otah availble.
     
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  4. kastofsna

    kastofsna Hall of Fame

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    Miami has the only guaranteed spot here.

    1. Miami
    2. St. Louis
    3. New York Jets
    4. Atlanta
    5. New England
    6. Baltimore
    7. Kansas City
    8. Oakland
    9. Cincinnati
    10 . Chicago

    Houston is picking 18th right now.
     
  5. austintexanite

    austintexanite All Pro

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    Excellent post my good man, I agree that Phillips is a great player but we need to build up the front herd to help us in the running game. Stewart has caught my eye a lot more because of our draft position, but I'd go OL first.
     
  6. Honoring Earl 34

    Honoring Earl 34 Hey Koolaid

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    Depending on who comes out , the strength of the draft might be OTs and RBs .

    This is good because we need both . Maybe at 17 or 18 we can get a really good player . Hopefully there will be Long , Clady , Baker , Boone , and Gosder at the very least for OTs .

    Phillips will go quick like Landry . I'm not sure if there is a CB that would be better than an OT at 17 . Well according to this websight there's a lot of CBs and DTs also .

    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/top64.php?draftyear=2008

    http://www.gbnreport.com/top100.html
     
  7. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    look @ it like this- Kenny Phillips is a everydown defensive playmaker that would upgrade our secondary immediately. the Texans don't have the luxury of using another high draft pick on a shutdown corner like Dunta. with Kenny the cover 2 works & we can wait for Dunta Robinson to return.

    one more week & we will know excatly where the Texans pick. 7-9 given our strength of schedule & assuming the whole group as a whole loses then the 16th pick is about right. if the Texans win & finish 8-8 it looks like 18th not much difference. as always the incentive should be to win.

    Phillips is the only underclassman so far who has deceided to come out early, Clady if he does will be gone & Stewart/Mendenhal have yet to deceide. If you use seniors only that leaves you (possible) Sam Baker, LT USC, Jeff Otah, LT Pitt & a new name to throw at you (I like him in a trade down scenero) RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina. :cool:
     
  8. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    I like Johnson to an extent, especially his wheels, but not in the first. No way, no how. Mendenhal is one of my favorite RB's in the draft. I do not think Stewart will be anything big in the NFL, and I do not support drafting him. Clady I would take in a heartbeat. Phillips will be a very good NFL S, though I don't know if he has the ability to slide over to FS, but he may slide down the board a little due to his mediocre season.

    Kastofsna, I refuse to believe that Otah is a top 3 player. Refuse it. Clady is the best OT in the draft. I will laugh for years at the dolphins if yall take Long. I really don't know on Dorsey, I'm leaning more towards voting nay.
     


  9. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    Merry Christmas Texans, here is your updated draft selection order:

    1 Miami 1-14 .533
    2 St. Louis 3-12 .513
    3 New York Jets 3-12 .525
    4 Atlanta 3-12 .529
    5 Kansas City 4-11 .508
    6 Oakland 4-11 .513
    7 Baltimore 4-11 .517
    8 New England (from San Francisco) 5-10 .467
    9 Cincinnati 6-9 .458
    10 Denver 6-9 .525
    11 Carolina 6-9 .533
    12 Chicago 6-9 .554
    13 Arizona 7-8 .438
    14 New Orleans 7-8 .475
    15 Buffalo 7-8 .508
    16 Houston 7-8 .521
    17 Detroit 7-8 .542
    18 Philadelphia 7-8 .575
    19 Minnesota 8-7 .500
    20 Washington 8-7 .563
    21 Tennessee 9-6 .500
    22 Dallas (from Cleveland) 9-6 .425
    23 Tampa Bay 9-6 .467
    24 Seattle 10-5 .404
    25 Pittsburgh 10-5 .442
    26 San Diego 10-5 .500
    27 New York Giants 10-5 .513
    28 Jacksonville 11-4 .517
    29 Green Bay 12-3 .471
    30 San Francisco (from Indianapolis) 13-2 .508
    31 Dallas 13-2 .492
    32 New England (pick forfeited) 15-0 .467
     
  10. threetoedpete

    threetoedpete Hall of Fame

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    So you've got Steven Jackson, a prety fair RB...if J.J. Calls do you do the deal ?
    Still think the two will move draft day if Miami dosen't take the Arkansas beast.

    Could this be the year the OLT falls into our hands and we take the guy ? Naah.

    I bet we end up with the Curl lipped Jane, King Dunlapped in to mediocrity, on day two.
     

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