Draft Position: Texans to pick 15th

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by keyser, Dec 21, 2008.

  1. keyser

    keyser Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2006
    Messages:
    1,355
    Likes Received:
    209
    OK, to get over the depression of our loss, I wanted to see where this left us draft position wise...

    Right now, there are 14 teams that will certainly end up with better records than us, plus two more that will be in the playoffs. That means we are, at worst, drafting 16th. There are 8 teams that will certainly have worse records. So, at best, we could draft 9th. The teams that are not clearly behind or ahead are:

    18. ** Arizona (8-7) (will pick higher, since in playoffs)
    17. Chicago (8-6)
    16. * Denver (8-7) (either they or San Diego will be in playoffs, and thus pick higher)
    15. Washington (8-7)
    14. New Orleans (8-7)
    13. * San Diego (7-8) (see Denver)
    12. Buffalo (7-8)
    11. **Houston (7-8)
    10. San Francisco (6-9)
    9. Green Bay (5-9)

    Arizona's in the playoffs, so they must pick later than us. Since Denver or San Diego must make the playoffs, at least one will draft later than us, so we can't be 17th.

    If Green Bay wins tomorrow, we'll keep the 9-16 range, or if Chicago wins, then Chicago will move off the top, and Green Bay off the bottom, giving us a 10-15 range.
     
  2. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 8, 2006
    Messages:
    8,697
    Likes Received:
    685
    I would be happy with an 8-8 record. Going into the season i thought we'd bea .500 team +/- 1 game, I just wish we would have beat oakland and lost to chicago. Anyways, picking 9-16 is my favorite place to pick besides picking 17-32. :) At least we won't overpay for a decent player and have a chance to trade down if a certain player slips for another team.
     
  3. mussop

    mussop Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2007
    Messages:
    7,170
    Likes Received:
    423
    After looking I believe we are in the #12 slot right now. Forecasting the remaining schedule I believe we will lose to Chicago and end up with pick 10 or 11.
     
  4. LonerATO

    LonerATO Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2006
    Messages:
    2,921
    Likes Received:
    90
    Location:
    No longer stuck in SA Town
    I could see the Texans trading down and trying to get an extra 3/4 or even going so far as to giving up the 1st and getting a 2nd in the following draft
     
  5. keyser

    keyser Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2006
    Messages:
    1,355
    Likes Received:
    209
    Well, after tonight's game, it looks like the Texans will be in the 10-15 range with their pick.

    I could see that happening, though it depends on who/what positions they're targeting. In some of the early lists of top prospects, it seemed like several were at positions I don't think the Texans would go after in the first.

    This I don't see. I remember in the Schaub trade they made a big deal about not having to give up a 1st round pick. I think they value those first round picks quite highly, and I can't see them trading all the way out of the first, much less doing so for just a second in this year's and next year's draft.
     
  6. LonerATO

    LonerATO Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2006
    Messages:
    2,921
    Likes Received:
    90
    Location:
    No longer stuck in SA Town
    Well by some miracle Richard Smith isnt fired then we need to trade out of the first, because it wont matter who they draft at defense since he cant coach at all
     
  7. Blake

    Blake MMQB

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2004
    Messages:
    11,225
    Likes Received:
    624
    Location:
    Spring
  8. rarazz00

    rarazz00 VOLUME 10

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2007
    Messages:
    228
    Likes Received:
    6
    Location:
    Houston
    I'm hoping Wade Phillips gets fired in Dallas, so we can hire him as our DC after we fire Rchard Smith.:d:
     


  9. painekiller

    painekiller Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2006
    Messages:
    2,070
    Likes Received:
    124
    Location:
    On the West Belt
    So your wanting to go to a 3-4, a defense that would mean dropping your entire LBing corp because they are undersized. Good plan.:d:
     
  10. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 8, 2006
    Messages:
    8,697
    Likes Received:
    685
    I can't wait until next week when we know the front order of the draft... and then I won't be able to wait for the draft! :doot: My favorite time of the year... see what young guys we can bring in to make the team better. Then immediately following the conclusion of the draft... seeing who will be available for the following year!
     
    Brando likes this.
  11. Hooston Texan

    Hooston Texan All Pro

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2007
    Messages:
    654
    Likes Received:
    150
    Here are some scenarios heading into the last week of the season.

    Theoretical Range
    1. Right now, nine teams (Detroit, St.Louis, KC, Cincy, Clev, Sea, Oak, Jax, GB) will have worse records than us no matter what. So that eliminates slots 1-9 for us.

    2. Fifteen teams (Phi, TB, Dall, Chi, Minn, NYJ, Atl, Mia, NE, Balt, Car, Pitt, Indy, NYG and Tenn) will have better records than us. So slots 18-32 are eliminated.

    3. We could end up tied with Arizona and both San Diego and Denver, but two of those three are getting playoff spots and thus cannot pick ahead of us if their record is the same as ours. So slots 16 and 17 are eliminated for us.

    4. So that leaves picks 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 for us. Other teams in the mix for those picks are (counting Ariz and SD/Den) are Ariz, SD, Den, SF, Buff, NO, Wash.

    5. Tiebreaker after record is opponents' winning percentage. Our opponents percentage is .515. Of the teams listed in #4 above, only SD (.517) has one above .500. So we're pretty much assured of losing the tiebreaker to everyone but San Diego.

    If we beat the Bears to finish 8-8:
    1. San Francisco (6-9) can't finish ahead of us, so we won't have the 10th pick.

    2. Buffalo (7-8) picks behind us no matter what in all likelihood. Their opponent's winning percentage (.450) is much lower than ours. So, for practical purposes, we won't have the 11th pick.

    3. If we finish 8-8, the outcome of Denver-San Diego is irrelevant to our final position. If Denver wins, they pick after us (better record) while San Diego picks before us (worse record). If San Diego wins, we'll all be 8-8, but San Diego is in the playoffs and picks after us. Denver will beat us in the tiebreaker with their low opponents percentage (.454 to our .515). So either way, one of those two picks before us and the other picks after us. That means we won't have the 12th pick.

    4. That leaves Washington and New Orleans (both 8-7). If both win, then we pick #13. If only one wins, we're #14. If both lose, we're #15. (Now, Washington and/or New Orleans could land at other spots besides 13-15, but I'm only working this out for us.)

    BOTTOM LINE IF WE BEAT CHICAGO: We're picking 13, 14 or 15, depending on the outcome of the 'Skins and Saints games.



    If we lose to the Bears to finish 7-9.
    1. We'll still lose to SF (6-9 record, opponents record of .450) in a tiebreaker, so we won't pick 10th.

    2. New Orleans and Washington will pick after us no matter what; they can't finish worse than 8-8. So we won't pick 14th or 15th.

    3. So we're left with 11, 12 and 13. If Buffalo wins to finish 8-8, we can't finish 13th. But, if Buffalo loses, we lose the tiebreaker to them, so we won't pick 11th.

    4. If San Diego beats Denver, both will have a better record, so we can't pick 13th, meaning we pick 11 or 12 depending on if the Bills win. BUT: if San Diego loses, they would also finish 7-9 and we could win the tiebreaker against them (too close to call at this point; right now our opponents are .515 and theirs is .517). So the best we can do is 11 if (a) Buffalo wins, (b) San Diego loses and (c) our opponents' percentage comes in less than SD's.

    BOTTOM LINE IF WE LOSE TO CHICAGO: We're picking 11, 12 or 13 depending on the outcome of NE-Buffalo and Den-SD.

    THE BOTTOM OF THE BOTTOM LINE: Our draft slot can only be 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15. Assuming no ties, of course.
     
  12. Brando

    Brando Site Contributor

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2007
    Messages:
    6,573
    Likes Received:
    571
    Whew! Nice work man. Rep.:goodpost:
     
  13. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 8, 2006
    Messages:
    8,697
    Likes Received:
    685
    :perfect10: No joke, awesome work Hooston- Rep!
     
  14. BattleRedToro

    BattleRedToro Thread Killer

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2006
    Messages:
    2,432
    Likes Received:
    201
    This now leads to the question: who will likely be available for the Texans to draft in positions 11-15?
     
  15. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 8, 2006
    Messages:
    8,697
    Likes Received:
    685
    Here's the top of the draft, some underclassmen may not declare (shuffle the players around how you like but of these, a few should be available to us), Bolded are those that are highly likely to be gone, they're in order by position, not ranking:

    1. Matthew Stafford - QB - Georgia
    2. Michael Oher - OT - Ole Miss
    3. Andre Smith - OT - Alablama
    4. Eugene Monroe - OT - Virginia
    5. Jason Smith - OT - Baylor
    6. Duke Robinson - OG - Oklahoma
    7. Michael Crabtree - WR - Texas Tech
    8. Chris Wells - RB - Ohio St.
    9. Knowshon Moreno - RB - Georgia
    10. Brian Orakpo - DE - Texas
    11. Michael Johnson - DE - Georgia Tech
    12. Greg Hardy - DE - Ole Miss
    13. BJ Raji - NT - Boston College
    14. Terrance Cody - NT - Alabama
    15. Peria Jerry - UT - Ole Miss
    16. Everette Brown - DE/OLB - Florida St.
    17. George Selvie - DE/OLB - South Florida
    18. Aaron Curry - OLB - Wake Forest
    19. Rey Maualuga - MLB - Southern Cal.
    20. James Laurinaitis - MLB - Ohio St.
    21. Clint Sintim - OLB - Virginia
    22. Brian Cushing - OLB - Southern Cal.
    23. Malcolm Jenkins - CB - Ohio St.
    24. Vontae Davis - CB - Syracuse
    25. Taylor Mays - S - Southern Cal.
    26. William Moore - S - Missouri
     
  16. threetoedpete

    threetoedpete Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 26, 2004
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    197
    Location:
    Katy, Texas
    It's in the paper this morning. Look and see how many veterans we have that are over the six year mark and are starting for us today. Pitts on offense. Bently for Diles, Greenwood for Adibi, Nick Fergeson. & Nading for Weaver.

    So, you're looking to replace four guys with how many picks over two years ?

    I'm with you on the general theme of collecting picks to dominate a draft. The more ammo in your back pocket the more likely you don't have to settle for BPA and bang a glaring hole.

    Look they are close enough to move up and go get a piece or two. In the beerlover camp and one of the Elite OTs falls to you, Gibbs loves the guy, I'm ok with that. New guy, Winston, Myers, or one of the five elite centers, Breisel, Brown. Great o-line can hide a lot of warts on offense.

    But know this going in, you're not going to out score Manning and the colts in most games. And if you don't have a front line defense...you're going to get exposed in the play offs.

    They have to move the red zone offense off the 42% touchdowns mark. Or...they have to get more athletic in the back seven on defense. To me, it screams Athletic side line to sideline LB or elite first step guy. One whom when you send him up the field he'll get there and make a play behind the line of scrimmage.

    If fourteen teams are foolish enough to leave Curry on the board for you, you make the pick. If not, you take the DE with a first step you like.

    If the CB falls to you.....how many guys at CB are you going to pay day one money ? The big question there is how much will Robinson sign for ? It's not his fault he got hurt. But it's not Bob McNairs fault either.

    Safety...I'll believe that sheet when I see it. Safety doesn't help with the touch downs, can't get to the QB unless you blitz him.
     
  17. LonerATO

    LonerATO Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2006
    Messages:
    2,921
    Likes Received:
    90
    Location:
    No longer stuck in SA Town
    Your right there is nothing wrong with taking a good player that drops to the Texans spot. Like I said no faith in Richard Smith makes any D pick seem like a waste to me if he is still here next year. I just dont want to see another crappy FA coming here and getting good money again
     
  18. edo783

    edo783 Site Contributor

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2004
    Messages:
    7,716
    Likes Received:
    311
    Location:
    Houston, again.
    If we got Orakpo to go with Okham and Oqyea (ya I spelled them all wrong) would we then become the Okies?
     
  19. Spled

    Spled All Pro

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2006
    Messages:
    777
    Likes Received:
    18
    I think we'l go around 14. It should be a deep draft so someone tasty will drop to us.
     
  20. CharloTex

    CharloTex All Pro

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2005
    Messages:
    567
    Likes Received:
    67
    Location:
    Kingwood
    We are at this minute in the 14 slot. If Arizona loses (losing by 7 in the 2nd), we will get bumped back one slot. If Washington loses (winning by 3 in the 2nd), we also get bumped one slot back. So that's 15th or 16th with either/both losses. Then we wait for the afternoon games to finish and I'll tell you what if any the nite game result will have on our position, possibily pushing us to the 17th slot at worst.

    Congratulations Texans Nation on the win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2008

Share This Page