D - Please Show Up For Real This Year

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by CloakNNNdagger, Jul 17, 2010.

  1. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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  2. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    Mods. Could you please ad "D:" in front of the thread title. It would identify the subject of the thread more appropriately. I accidentally left it off when typing it in. Thanks.
     
  3. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    I didn't see the defense killing the team's chances, last season. Aside from the initial 3 games, where the defense ran around like headless chickens, the defense performed OK to very good. I don't think you can point to any of the last 5 losses as say that was on the defense.

    Regarding the linked article, the author suggests that the Texans defense under Bush is not "complex enough" and too predictable. While previously pointing to the some top 4-3 defenses stats, and inferring that better defenses are single-minded. Well, what is it? Are the Texans too predictable? Or are they not focused on what they do best? And if the initial 3 games stats are thrown out (where the coaches and players were clueless), what would the numbers for the Texans defense look like?

    Maybe the thread title should read, "D - Please show up for the start of the season. And bring the offense with you."
     
  4. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    I think that if you choose to be a "predictable" D, you have to have very solid D to be able to overcome your opponent with superior strength and/or precision. Last year, we were pretty predicatble, but not generally superior in either strength or precision. This year to be more successful, we WILL have to choose which route IT is.
     
  5. BSofA04

    BSofA04 Hall of Fame

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    What the article doesn't mention is when we blitzed. Because of this, I believe the numbers may be misleading. For example...

    During the Richard Smith era, I'd see us blitz heavy during the first half of the game. Come second half when things were getting tight, he'd back off and play scared...errr...nickle defense. So for the sake of numbers, let's say we blitzed 18 times that game with 12 coming the first half.

    Now during the Bush tenure, Frank had us coming from all angles late in the game. Blitz pressure caused Brady to throw the game changing interception to Bernard Pollard last season late in the fourth. So again for the sake of numbers, we blitzed 18 times that game with 8 coming in the first half and 10 coming in the second.

    Both will show 18 blitzes/game, but it's when Bush called it that mattered more.
     
  6. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    Step 1
    I wanted to break down the points per quarter of each game to get a sense of what is happening.

    09/13/2009 New York Jets L, 24-7
    Q1: 3, Q2:7, Q3:7, Q4:7. Total points was only 24 but it was an absolute beat down.

    09/20/2009 @ Tennessee Titans W, 34-31
    Q1: 14, Q2:10, Q3:7, Q4:0. The uncovered CJ play is all we need to think about. SLOPPY play throughout

    09/27/2009 Jacksonville Jaguars L, 31-24
    Q1: 3, Q2:14, Q3:7, Q4:7. After the first half the D came apart giving up 28 points in 2,3,4th quarters. No good.

    10/04/2009 Oakland Raiders W, 29-6
    Q1: 3, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 6 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played hard for a full game.

    10/11/2009 @ Arizona Cardinals L, 28-21
    Q1: 7, Q2:14, Q3:0, Q4:7(int). A tale of 2 halves. First half D gave up 21 points. Cannot give up 21 points in a half and get a W. 2nd half, D gives up 0. Looks like D was flat in first half (along with the offense).

    10/18/2009 @ Cincinnati Bengals W, 28-17
    Q1: 0, Q2:17, Q3:0, Q4:0. Gave up 17 points in the second quarter. A win, but 17 points at the half is not good.

    10/25/2009 San Francisco 49ers W, 24-21
    Q1: 0, Q2:0, Q3:7, Q4:14. Yikes. Clean sheet in first half and then 21 second half points. D came out strong and fizzled out.

    11/01/2009 @ Buffalo Bills W, 31-10
    Q1: 7, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 10 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played hard outside of first drive. Played hard whole game

    11/08/2009 @ Indianapolis Colts L, 20-17
    Q1: 10, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:7. Very strong effort to keep Manning to only 20 points. Came out a bit flat in the first, but played 3 quarters hard.

    11/23/2009 (Mon.)Tennessee Titans L, 20-17
    Q1: 0, Q2:14, Q3:3, Q4:3. Giving up 14 points in a quarter is inexcusable. If they kept it at 10 or less, Texans win. Played 3 quarters hard.

    11/29/2009 Indianapolis Colts L, 35-27
    Q1: 0, Q2:7, Q3:7, Q4:21(1int). D gave up 14 in the 4th, but that is still too much. Played 3 quarters.

    12/06/2009 @ Jacksonville Jaguars L, 23-18
    Q1: 3, Q2:17, Q3:3, Q4:0. Sensing a pattern here? The team is playing 3 quarters so many times.

    12/13/2009 Seattle Seahawks W, 34-7
    Q1: 0, Q2:7, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 7 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played 4 quarters


    12/20/2009 @ St. Louis Rams W, 16-13
    Q1: 0, Q2:10, Q3:3, Q4:0. Dominant D. 10 points in first half, 3 in th second half. played hard.

    12/27/2009 @ Miami Dolphins W, 27-20
    Q1: 0, Q2:3, Q3:7, Q4:10. gave up 17 points in the second half. Not good.

    01/03/2010 New England Patriots W, 34-27
    Q1: 7, Q2:6, Q3:7(int), Q4:7. Gave up points each quarter. a tough offense, but we need to do better than 27 points given up.

    Step 2
    I decided to break down points given up by quarter to see if a pattern emerges.

    Q1: 57
    Q2: 135
    Q3: 54
    Q4: 69

    Step 3
    Looks like we are giving up tremendous amounts of points in the 2nd quarter. For whatever reason we seem to not play very hard during that quarter. If you want to say its skewed becuase of the first three games, look at the breakdown without the first three

    Q1:37
    Q2:104
    Q3:33
    Q4:55

    The discrepancy is still there. From this data I conclude that the Texans essentially played 3 quarters of defense. While it was not always consistent, statistically the Texans played far poorer in the 2nd quarter as compared to the other ones. The other quarters are likely not statistically significantly different. So, the for the Texans to think playoffs they must play hard in all 4 quarters.

    Now here is the kicker. The Texans were in the 54-69 point range per quarter for 1,3,and 4. If we give them a 69 for quarter 2 and add 14 points(points for pick 6's), the total comes out to 263 total points. That would work out to 16.44 points per game. That number would qualify for 4th in the league(using last year's data). As is the Texans 2nd quarter had them at 333 or 20.8 ppg, good for 17th. Thus if they played at the same level through all 4 quarters they would have had the 4th best D in terms up giving up points, which is the most important D statistic afterall. A stingy 16.44 ppg would be more than enough for our offense and we would certainly have been in the playoffs. Look at the numbers. We played a full f game defense 3 times. And we won all three of them.

    Therefore: the Texans D was fantastic outside of the 2nd quarter. If they can fix that issue, they will have a strong Defense.
     
  7. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

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    Great job breaking this down! Rep to you man. I know this took a lot of effort on your part. Much appreciated!

    Look for our defense to be more consistant this year. If we can hold teams under 17 pts on average I think we will have a very good year.
     
  8. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    Thanks!
    Yeah, I love sports stats and subscribe to the stats approach to sports analysis. If I could find a program, I'd probably enroll and earn a Master's degree in Sports Statistics FOR FUN!
     
  9. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

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    That's pretty awesome man! Do you have the tools to break down our 3rd down defense? I think this is where we were lacking last year, at least on 3rd and long. Seems like I remember a lot of 3rd and 6 or more going for 8 or more.
     
  10. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    I would love to do that. The thing is i do not have any games recorded. So I would need to find the results of each play the offense and d ran, and it must tell me the down, and the result.

    ESPN has a stat for each team called, "3rd down efficiency" and that is broken down by game. For example in the Jets game the Jets were 10/18. Meaning they converted 10 3rd downs out of a possible 18(or 56% of the time). In contrast the Texans converted a meager 3/10 or 30%. However as you can see this stat does not take distance into account. Did the Jets convert 10/18 when they averaged a 3rd and 3 or less whereas the Texans converted 3/10 when they averaged a 3rd and 7 in comparison?

    But without the knowledge of downs and having access to that type of info, it would be hard for me to come up with some numbers for your request. I would only be able to speak to 3rd down efficiency and I am not really sure that is what you are after.
     
  11. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    Great effort on the breakdown. One thing that somewhat "enhances" the appearance of our D and has not really been factored in is the level of D played against some generally very mediocre and poor offensive teams (at the time we played them). Any thoughts on "adjustment" for this variable?
     
  12. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    Excellent point Doc. I was thinking another way to breakdown could be to isolate teams a couple of ways:
    1) breakdown between under .500, .500, and over .500 teams and see if there is still a difference by quarter
    2) breakdown between low third, mid third, and high third offenses by quarter.
    3) breakdown by playoff vs non playoff teams in terms of points per quarter.

    Perhaps one of those will give us a better understanding of our team's D.
     
  13. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

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    That would be great. But some teams were specifically very much more vulnerable at the time we played them than they were at other times in the season, and that would need to be taken into account.
     
  14. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    I will have to think and see if I can come up with a fair metric to take that into consideration. Not sure how as of yet.
     
  15. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    timing is everything which is why the Texans first four are not favorable. excuse me I just had a very bitter pale ale & its called "Reality Bitter" we best be use to it seems we get alot of it around here :drunk:
     
  16. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    I was just thinking about personal. For example as we all know, we lost our two starting guards on offense and our TE. Perhaps looking at the players who played each game and determining if significant players were missing against us would be one way to do that. Off the top of your head do you remember any team missing specific significant players when we played them?
     
  17. Texanmike02

    Texanmike02 Site Contributor

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    I think one thing you need to do is to apply a multiplier to consider who is scoring points. I don't know if you have this in access or excel but I'm thinking take the pts scored by a team / average pts scored by all teams.

    Just an idea.

    Mike
     
  18. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    I am going to create a new thread entitled Texans Defense Stats and start crunching numbers tomorrow or so.

    Lets see if we can get any interesting data!

    And of course if anyone wants to add their own stats to the thread they are of course welcome to do so!
     
  19. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

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    I think a better look would be to take what a team scored against us in different conditions (qtr, dwn, etc.) and compare it to how they did against the rest of the league.
     
  20. TheRealJoker

    TheRealJoker Hall of Fame

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    In order to play a "predictable defense", like for example, Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 D while he was the Bucs DC, we must generate pressure using only the DL.

    If we can pressure the QB with just the 4 DL, we don't have to change much of anything scheme-wise from week to week (because the D already accomplishes the toughest goal to stop opposing offenses which is to pressure the opposing QB).

    If the DL cannot do that you have to run a more complicated defense that changes week to week like Greg Williams had running with the Saints last season. Check out this article to read what Matt Ryan had to say about Williams' schemes:

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000...of-past-and-present-highlights-changing-views

    "We also talked about playing division opponents a second time and how much defensive coordinators changed schemes. Ryan pointed out a couple of exceptions. He said the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers stay true to who they are defensively from one game to the next and don't make radical scheme changes. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints bring a whole new set of pressures and looks the second time around in an attempt to confuse the offense. Rodgers said the Bears threw some new wrinkles at him with coverages the second time and it required some adjustments during the game."
     

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