Cold, Hard Football Facts about the Texans

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Texans_Chick, Sep 22, 2011.

  1. Texans_Chick

    Texans_Chick Utopian Dreamer

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    From my blog:

    You ready for some Cold, Hard Football Facts about the Texans?

    Oh yes. If this doesn't fire you up more for Sunday, you need a fan intervention.

    Basically, it looks at the Texans from a historical standpoint and after two games and then tries to put everything in context. Not looking at all numbers but looking at numbers that tend to correspond with winners.
     
  2. c10x

    c10x Veteran

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    Good article. Good read. Thanks.
     
  3. DocBar

    DocBar Hall of Fame

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    I became a fan of their PDR when you posted it the 1st time. It's incredibly accurate. Who says stats are for losers? You just have to pay attention to the right ones.
     
  4. infantrycak

    infantrycak Mod. Staff Member

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    Folks should look at the Aikman efficiency ratings. They are incredibly good at predicting games. Whether or not you hate the team he played for he developed a darn good evaluation system.
     
  5. DocBar

    DocBar Hall of Fame

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    I didn't even know Aikman had devised an effeiciency rating system. Can you provide a link?
    BTW, I DO hate the cowboys, but I like a lot of their players. Aikman was a helluva QB.
     
  6. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    Looking back at the 2010 season (yikes), the Texans were plus PDR in 4 of their 6 wins. They were plus PDR in only one (at Denver) of their 10 losses.

    But, what does the passing rating really mean? Is it just about passing? How often is it that a team establishes the run, and their passing game becomes more efficient? When the defense stops the run and makes an offense one dimensional, doesn't the passing game efficiency often suffer? And which component of the passer rating has the most influence on the overall rating? My guess is int ratio. Which often rises when teams are forced to pass. The PDR is influenced by other aspects of the game and doesn't exist in a vacuum.
     
  7. foo82

    foo82 Veteran

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    Nice post. There was something interesting found within.


    For those who are worried about our run defense?

    "Green Bay against the run? The Packers, to steal one of this postseason's most famous lines, "couldn't stop a nose bleed." They surrendered 4.64 ypa on the ground this year. Only four defenses were worse against the run.

    Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...er-bowl-pass-defense/index.html#ixzz1YjiccZ1e
    "

    Looks like Wade Phillips has the right philosophy in trying to stop the pass.
     
  8. DocBar

    DocBar Hall of Fame

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    INT's and YPA would be my 2 biggest stats in attaining a QB rating, but I don't think it would matter much which system is used to attain a QB rating in this instance as long as you use the same one for both QB's. DPR is just the difference between how well your team throws the ball and how well your team defends the pass.
     


  9. Texan_Bill

    Texan_Bill Subscribed Contributor

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    Steph... You were great with @travisrodgers on @1560thegame today. Some of those numbers / stats you came up with were unbelievable!!!


    ----->Did we lose the Texan Chick emoticon?<-----
     
  10. Hardcore Texan

    Hardcore Texan Magnet Man

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    After two games? It's too early in the season to judge using the stats. Against who, Kerry Collins and Chad Henne?

    Could be right, defense does look better but they haven't been tested they way they are about to be. Not enough of a litmus test with those two QB's going into this game up against that offense to make it feasible based on stats alone.
     
  11. Texans_Chick

    Texans_Chick Utopian Dreamer

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    Bad summary. Did you read the article? He addresses those things.
     
  12. Texans_Chick

    Texans_Chick Utopian Dreamer

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    Thanks. I was afraid my son was going to start playing drums in middle of interview. There's no quiet place from those.
     
  13. Air Canada

    Air Canada Veteran

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    "Stats are for losers, so you keep looking at stats, and we'll keep looking at WINS!" :dancer:
     
  14. Hardcore Texan

    Hardcore Texan Magnet Man

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    Why thank ya :tiphat: Only read the first part, then got interrupted with chilrenz bedtimes and such, I didn't even realize I posted that, I wasn't through editing and wanted to finish the article to see where it was going, that was my initial reaction.
     
  15. 76Texan

    76Texan Hall of Fame

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    Thanks again, Steph!
    You always have some good read.

    Quality stats like these are good summaries and indicators for team plays.
    There's no doubt about that.

    The interesting point, however, is when he mentioned that these indicators don't work as well in the play-offs.

    It brings up the point I've always stressed:
    Some teams played against more inferior opponents (or opponents who had a worse day than their norm).
    It skews the numbers a little bit (or quite a bit) in some cases.

    Individual stats are less accurate.
    An example is how the Texans made most opponents' QB look like winners in 2010.

    If we try to compare two QBs, one who played against more teams like the Texans, the other played against more team from the other end of the spectrum.
    QB #1 can look like Montana and QB #2 can look like David Carr.
    In reality, that is not the case.

    This is what I'm always against: Using stats to measure individual performances.
     
  16. 76Texan

    76Texan Hall of Fame

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    Good points!
     
  17. El Tejano

    El Tejano Hall of Fame

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    Say what you will but these guys went 15-1 last year in their games of the week and based on their formula they said we would lose by 7 in a shootout 30 -23. They may have got the score wrong but they got the amount of defeat right 40-33.
     
  18. El Tejano

    El Tejano Hall of Fame

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    Noone sees the accuracy in their prediction? Geez I hope they favor us vs. Steelers.
     
  19. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    So....... how are we doing through week 9?
     

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