Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Texans834, May 16, 2004.
Do u think CArr will have a breakout year this year
I think he will have around 3500 yards and 16 TDs, but what is important to me is that he has more TDs then INTs thrown. I think this offense can be potent this year with Carr leading it.
He should now that the team has played together for 3 years and we upgraded our O line this offseason. I hope so because he is going to count 7+ mil against the cap next year.
What's important to me about David Carr is his TD/INT ratio. If he can stay healthy all year then he has no excuse to not be in the positive. Also, as it's been pointed out before, his fourth quarter stats need to do a complete 180 for him to even be considered a top notch QB. I won't predict statistics, but if he can turn those two around, then he'll have a nice year.
Usually by the third year a player should play up to his potential more and should be comfortable leading the offense. In our case that might not happen this year because we are just in our third year of existence so it might take a bit more time. Carr has to do some things this year though and some of them are: Throw more td than interceptions, show the soft touches the quarterback needs, and he's already shown that he is a leader and can lift his team up. He needs to be consistent like the rest of our team and then I think DC and the team will do fine.
Depends on your definition of "breakout".
To me, making the Pro Bowl would be a breakout season. But given his competition at QB in the AFC (Manning, Brady, McNair, Green), that's not likely.
And I'm not certain we'll ever see a "breakout" season. He may explode in year 4 but you'll hear rumblings about how he's a 4 year veteran and was a top overall pick...he should have those types of numbers by then.
So I'm not looking for a "breakout" season. I just want to see improvement.
First thing (as mentioned already) is his TD/INT ratio. If it's "only" even...that's improvement. I'd like to see his rating climb into the upper 70's. I'd like to see his completion percentage reach the 60's.
I agree that would be about right Huge. However, with the vertical type of passing game we use/should be using, getting over 60% is difficult. The guys running the WCO type get over 60% because it is all dink & dunk passing. I think 57-59% is good for our type of game.
Tim Couch completed almost 64% of his passes with a 6.90 ypa (Carr averaged 6.82 ypa last year) in the same style of offense (Chris Palmer was his head coach) in his 2nd year in the league.
I don't think it's too much to ask.
I think Carr will throw for 3000 yards. He is cutting down on his mental mistakes. This offense will go as far as Carr leads them.
I suspect he will have a very nice year if he stays healthy.
Carr has the arm strength, and has it "up stairs" too. Now he has the line, good receivers, a running game - trust me, he is going to do big things for us this year.
I am expecting around 3200 yards. Thats 200 yards a game passing. I would combine that with 1600 yards rushing, and we have a winning combination. Consistancy is the key. If he has a 2:1 TD/INT ratio, then these numbers are not too far away.
Couch completed nearly 65 percent of passes because he mainly runs out the spread offense. It's not a vertical offense like the Texans.
I don't care if it's football or the way one approaches their job, you have to set the bar higher than what might be realistic. I have no doubt Carr and the rest of the team will have a good year, a winning season, and at least a wildcard spot. As has been pointed out, Carr has the arm as well as the brains to lead this team and I'm certain he realizes he has to improve his touch and looking off his recievers, so I'm not too concerned that he won't continue to improve every part of his game.
One things for sure. He has a running game to rely on this year. So that should help him alot this year with having more time to throw the ball.
Reasons (in no particular order):
a) The offensive line will be better, with more talent (Wade), more experience (Pitts, Brown, Weary) and a more experienced coach (Pendry);
b) The tight ends will be better (addition of Joppru (off IR) and Bruener (veteran));
c) the running game wil be better (more experience for Davis and Hollings) and the return of Baxter);
d) the passing game will be better (tight ends, plus experience for Johnson, Gaffney and Armstrong, plus more time to throw (see offensive line improvements));
e) the defense will be better (health, Smith and draft picks). Remember that last year there really never was a game with both Dominic Davis and a healthy defense. Payne never played with Walker, Glenn nursing injuries all year, etc.
f) He will have a dedicated quarterback coach, in addition to Palmer.
I agree with everything Mistril said....very nice!
I think Carr will be more of a consistent QB this year with the help of his supporting cast.
The most important number to indicate Carr's progression will be his third down conversion percentage. The main problem on offense that the Texans have had their first two seasons is not being able to sustain drives. Because of the conservative nature of Capers (even though I am sure Palmer would like to open the offense a lot more) other stats like TD's, yardage, QB rating, and even TD-INT ratio will not be as important to Carr.
If the running game is going really well, Carr will not have as many TD's as the top QB's because Capers will want to run it in. That fact alone will effect Carr's TD-INT ratio and QB rating. A great running game will keep Carr from racking up big yardage numbers, although an improved running game will help open up the passing game when passes are called.
Also, Carr is going to naturally throw more INT's than QB's in West Coast offenses because the Texans offense depends more on downfield passes than on the safer short-yardage passes.
Texans fans need to realize the limitations the offensive scheme is going to put on Carr when they look at his stats. Of course he needs to limit his INT's and complete more of his passes. But more important for his progression will be how many third downs he is converting, how much time he is running off the clock, how many points the offense as a whole is scoring, and ulitimately how many wins the Texans are getting.
Capers is VERY conservative. However, I suspect they will open up the offense this year. (may be a relative kind of thing)
1. The guys now have experience - line, QB & Recievers
2. We have a QB that can get the ball downfield and recievers that can get there
3. The running game will keep the defense honest
4. Carr wants to open it up.
5. The defense will be able to hold other teams, so more risk can be taken on offense
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