Broncos Terrific 12 v. Texan Terrific 12

[Mistril48]

Old Posting (new posting below)

In a salary cap regime like the NFL, the value of a player is a function of his performance measured against his cap value. A non-expansion NFL team typically drafts 12 players (the “Terrific 12” if you will) in the first 3 rounds over a 4 year period. These 12 players are particularly valuable to a franchise in a salary cap regime, because they typically have much lower cap values than players signed through free agency. For example, Chester Pitts has a 2004 cap value of $705,000, but Steve McKinney has a 2004 cap value of $3,050,000.

Typically, an impact player becomes a free agent after four accrued years and either leaves, or receives his first big free agency contract. Each year, a franchise typically loses 3 first day drafted players to free agency (unless they re-sign the players) and get three replacements through the draft, thereby maintaining their Terrific 12 (in some cases, of course, a player drafted to be a Terrific 12 player won’t work out and a team may end up with less than 12, or a second day drafted player may excel, like Domanick Davis, thereby creating more than 12). McKinney, Bradford, Wong, Smith and Wade are all examples of four year players who got big raises to come to the Texans for their 5th year.

In the 2002 season, the Texans first year, they only had 5 Terrific 12 (1 first, 2 second and 2 third), while all the other teams had 12. Bummer. Unlike the Panthers and the Jaguars, the Texans weren’t given any extra first round picks. Hard to compete.

The good news is the Texans have now caught up, thanks to expansion picks and Charlie Casserly’s astute trades. They now have 12 players who they drafted on the first day. The Texans now have a Terrific 12 like other NFL teams. Good.

New Posting

How does the Texans next opponent’s Terrific 12 compare with the Texans?

. . YR . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . YR . . Broncos (4 yrs)

F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‘ 01 DB Willie Middlebrooks
I. . ’02 . QB David Carr . . . . . . . . . . ‘02 WR Ashley Lelie
R . ’03 . WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . ‘03 OT George Foster
S . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . . ‘04 LB D. J. Williams
T . ’04 . LB Jason Babin

S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‘01 DE Paul Toviessi (released)
E . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney
C . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts . . . . . . . . . .‘02 RB Clinton Portis (traded*)
O . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru . . . . . . . . . .‘03 LB Terry Pierce
N . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings . . . . . . . . . .‘04 RB Tatum Bll
D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‘04 WR Darius Watts

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '01 DE Reggie Hayward
T . ’02 . OL Fred Weary
H . ’02 . OL Charles Hill (released) . . . . '02 DT Dorsett Davis
I . ’03. . LB Antwan Peek
R . ’03 . OL Seth Wand
D . ’03 . QB Dave Ragone
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '04 CB Jeremy LeSueur

* traded for Tatum Bell pick and expensive free agent type.

Would you trade our players, above, for their players, above. I don’t think so!

Old Posting

And the news gets better. In 2005, the Texans should keep all of their Terrific 12 (none will have four accrued years) and add 4 new members through the 2005 draft (1 first, 1 second and 2 thirds), giving them a total of 16 Terrific 12. Great news!

 

[infantrycak]

IMO it would be fair to add Champ Bailey into the mix although with the new contracts signed by both Bailey and Portis they have lost the savings characteristic of a terrific 12 member.

 

[Mistril48]

IMO it would be fair to add Champ Bailey into the mix although with the new contracts signed by both Bailey and Portis they have lost the savings characteristic of a terrific 12 member.

underline mine.

If you include Champ, then wouldn't it be fair to include Robaire Smith, or Tood Wade ... what I'm trying to say is that the money that the Denver spent on Champ (or Portis) cost them another free agent, who could have filled another position of need.

I feel that comparing how teams are doing with these players gives you a good gauge on how they will perform now and in the future. Are they headed up, or down. You can't pay free agent type money at every position, so you need a strong pool of these type of players.

I believe that Texans were disadvantaged ... have now caught up ... and are poised to be in a very strong position next year and comparing them to other teams we play illustrates that.

 

[Fertguy]

I am a chronic lurker, who enjoys reading insight, keeping up with team news, views. Therefore, since I rarely post, I tend not to criticize too much (although there are a few *****s out there that let their keyboard prove their own lack of knowledge) Mistril, your insights are generally decent with good takes, but other than myself, I think no one needs the season to actually start worse than you. When you begin to evaluate non-existent things such as level of Terrific Twelve players, you are in serious football withdrawal. In just two weeks you will get your fix. Until then we are both really searching.

I like your takes and just giving you a hard time.

 

[Ediddy73]

I have tried with a passing interest to understand just what the heck you are talking about with your "terrific 12" comparisons, but I think you are in your own little world on this one. First point of contention; you are a year early with your little break down, but of course you already know that. Second, I would have traded Joppru for Foster on draft day, without even knowing about the injury. Now I would trade him for a 6 pack of warm Schlitz and a half eaten moon pie to anyone who will take his money off our books. Hollings for Tatum Bell? where do I sign?? Babin for DJ Williams? Yes please!! Even comparatively, as much as I like him, Pitts for Portis in a heartbeat!! so no, this does not apply

Would you trade our players, above, for their players, above. I don’t think so!

I agree with fertguy, back away from the NFLPA site and take a nap until Sept 12th!! I also think it would be fair to include Bailey, since he was traded for one of their magnificent 7 or dirty dozen or 3 wise men, or whatever. Smith and Wade were not in our case.

 

[Mistril48]

I am a chronic lurker, who enjoys reading insight, keeping up with team news, views. Therefore, since I rarely post, I tend not to criticize too much (although there are a few *****s out there that let their keyboard prove their own lack of knowledge) Mistril, your insights are generally decent with good takes, but other than myself, I think no one needs the season to actually start worse than you. When you begin to evaluate non-existent things such as level of Terrific Twelve players, you are in serious football withdrawal. In just two weeks you will get your fix. Until then we are both really searching.

I like your takes and just giving you a hard time.

Thank you for taking the time to post! I appreciate your comments and as you suggest can hardly wait for the season to begin ... almost as much as next years draft! j/k

Everyone enjoys different experiences out of being a fan. Some like to party and paint their faces ... some like to absorb just enough in case the boss asks a question at the water cooler. Some are salary cap experts and we are fortunate that they share their efforts with us. I say to each his own. I particularly enjoy watching a franchise being built (perhaps that's why I cancelled my season tickets the day the Rockets traded Horry and Cassell).

I think that the Texans have done an excellent job (imagine trying to hope for a team with a 40 year old QB, a 'fired' WR and a cast off RB). I feel the key to building a franchise in a salary cap regime is having productive, less-expensive players. In the early years, the Texans didn't have a chance. I believe the Texans have now positioned themselves to ensure that they are one of the top franchises, regardless of their record this year. I believe we will all have an opportunity to enjoy this in the upcoming years.

 

[Mistril48]

I have tried with a passing interest to understand just what the heck you are talking about with your "terrific 12" comparisons...

Each team gets 3 first day draft picks each year. After 4 years, you have 12. The next year, you have to pay them real money, or they leave ... like Bradford left GB, McKinney left the Colts, Wong left the Vikings, The Baire left the Titans, etc. These are the only players you don't have to bid on. I believe their production goes a long way to determining how a team will do.

Maybe I should have called them the 'Cheap 12?"

...First point of contention; you are a year early with your little break down, but of course you already know that...

You're right. We've only had three drafts. I believe the fact that the Texans have put together a competitive package of '12' is great and worthy of being pointed out. We're a real team.

... Second, I would have traded Joppru for Foster on draft day, without even knowing about the injury. Now I would trade him for a 6 pack of warm Schlitz and a half eaten moon pie to anyone who will take his money off our books...

I don't believe this is a fair comment. Foster was a first round draft pick, drafted long before Joppru. Many people would have traded Joppru for Foster that day

...Hollings for Tatum Bell? Babin for DJ Williams? Yes please!!

Again, I don't believe your analysis is fair:

- Tatum Bell was drafted with a much earlier pick than Hollings (the Texans didn't use their own 2nd round pick and only used the Raiders 2nd round pick from the end bundle of the supplimental draft); and

- DJ Williams was drafted earlier than Babins

... Even comparatively, as much as I like him, Pitts for Portis in a heartbeat! ... I also think it would be fair to include Bailey, since he was traded for one of their magnificent 7 or dirty dozen or 3 wise men, or whatever. Smith and Wade were not in our case.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion. I feel however, that Pitts is more valuable to the Texans in that:

- we'll get 4 years of quality play at a cap of around $700,000 /yr;
- Portis would not likely have run behind our offensive line the way he did in Denver; and
- RBs generally have short NFL careers, so we had the potential for Pitts to still be with us as we develooped into a contending team.

If the wasn't a selary cap then I'd agree with you.

... I also think it would be fair to include Bailey, since he was traded for one of their magnificent 7 or dirty dozen or 3 wise men, or whatever. Smith and Wade were not in our case.

Its all about the Benjamins.

When they traded Portis, I let them include Bell. If you include Bailey then the cap value of the old Portis slot is now huge, in the range of Pitts and Wade (I'm guessing).

 

[Fertguy]

I think that the Texans have done an excellent job (imagine trying to hope for a team with a 40 year old QB, a 'fired' WR and a cast off RB). I feel the key to building a franchise in a salary cap regime is having productive, less-expensive players. In the early years, the Texans didn't have a chance. I believe the Texans have now positioned themselves to ensure that they are one of the top franchises, regardless of their record this year. I believe we will all have an opportunity to enjoy this in the upcoming years.

Couldnt agree more... As a lonely diehard texan fan... I know what its like to think there is not a chance. My first and only trip to Reliant was the 2003 titans game & I was tickled it was a good game.... went not expecting to win... much less lose on the last play.

The babin deal signaled, not a win/lose on Casserly, but a significant shift in draft philosophy. All of a sudden we didn't need warm bodies, but talent. I know some may disagree, but I loved it. The decision will be decided in 2005 & 2006 (not 2004 preseason) but the point remains.... the front office is happy and is drafting need not quantity...

HOWEVER... the "terrific twelve" to me is still showing a serious jonesing for the MNF theme song. I dont understand it, other than we look good for the future...

How does NE look with T Brady... or the 98 Broncos with Terrell Davis? To me... oh welll.... I do share your enthusiasm... just not your measuring stick

 

[Ediddy73]

First of all Mistril, thank you for adding a little clarity. I tend to be a little bit baroque with my opinions, and you waded through the garbage and answered questions. I understand a bit more now of what you are saying. I may not totally agree with it or buy in, but I respect your opinion.

 

[nunusguy]

I would like to add my name to the list of board members who appreciate your
analysis and efforts, though I'm not sure if I fully agree(or perhaps understand),the true meaning of the info. But what I do understand is numbers, so here's something you might consider because you're obviously a
bit of a bean counter yourself.
It always annoys me when political journalists trivilalize our economic system
by calling it "tricke down". Of course they may really understand capitalism
and free markets, but simplay have their own political agenda. But I think I'm giving them too much credit when I say they know but just have an agenda - I suspect they do have an agenda and also are dumb as grass when it comes to Econ.
Now, sports jounalists are like that to, because it also annoys me when sports journalists don't compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges when it comes to player comp. One guy gets 10 mill, but spread over 10 years while another guy gets 10 mill payable this year. That's apples and oranges, right ?
The concept of "present value" - 101 Finance. Are the journalists ignorant or
packing an agenda ? You gotta discount the buck you gonna get next year to
the present value of todays buck, then we can talk about player comp in meaningful and informed terms. That's not that advanced. Then we're really gonna know if ,oh say for example, David Carr is making more than Carson Palmer, or vise versa.

 

[SBTexans08]

Tony Hollings was a 2nd round pick in '04, WTF???

 

[SBTexans08]

Well he was picked in last year's supplemental draft and played last year...hence the confusion by my part.

 

[Mistril48]

Couldnt agree more... As a lonely diehard texan fan... I know what its like to think there is not a chance. My first and only trip to Reliant was the 2003 titans game & I was tickled it was a good game.... went not expecting to win... much less lose on the last play...

Wasn't that great! With all the injury challenges they face, the Texans sure gave the fans their money's worth. I was disappointed with the loss, but it will just make our first win over the tacks that much sweeter ... plus we saw a good show.

...HOWEVER... the "terrific twelve" to me is still showing a serious jonesing for the MNF theme song. I dont understand it, other than we look good for the future...

How does NE look with T Brady... or the 98 Broncos with Terrell Davis? To me... oh welll.... I do share your enthusiasm... just not your measuring stick

You are quite right that to be more complete, I should include all drafted players, all of who are relatively 'cheap.' I only used the first day picks to make it a cleaner model, because throughout the league so few second day picks make an impact... you've certainly identified some. In fairness, though, I also didn't include Domanick Davis, so I don't believe my decision wasn't designed to make the Texans look good.

 

[Mistril48]

... But what I do understand is numbers, so here's something you might consider ...

You're quite right that I'm hopelessly generalizing to refer to all first day picks as 'cheap' and all name 5 year free agents as expensive. First rounders like Robinson are paid a lot more that third rounders, like Peek, but I think for my purposes, it's acceptable. The bundle of first day drafted Texans costs a lot less against the cap than a bundle including former free agents like McKinney, Bradford, Weigert, etc. If our drafted bundle is productive, then we will have the cap room we need to go get a Robaire Smith in competition with a team like the tacks, who have bumped up against the cap.

 

[Mistril48]

. . . . . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . . . . . Broncos (4 yrs)

. . . . . . QB David Carr
. . . . . . QB Dave Ragone

. . . . . . RB Tony Hollings . . . . . . . . . . . . RB Tatum Bell / Clinton Portis (traded*)

. . . . . .WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . . . . . WR Ashley Lelie
. . . . . .WR Jabar Gaffney. . . . . . . . . . . . WR Darius Watts

. . . . . . TE Benny Joppru

. . . . . .OL Chester Pitts . . . . . . . . . . . . . OT George Foster (rogue?)
. . . . . .OL Seth Wand
. . . . . .OL Fred Weary


. . . . . .DL Charles Hill (released). . . . . . . . .DT Dorsett Davis
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DE Paul Toviessi (released)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DE Reggie Hayward

. . . . . .LB Jason Babin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . LB D. J. Williams
. . . . . .LB Antwan Peek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . LB Terry Pierce

. . . . . .CB Dunta Robinson. . . . . . . . . . . . .DB Willie Middlebrooks
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CB Jeremy LeSueur

I would argue that the Broncos, like the Vikings and others, illustrate how we have ‘arrived’ after just three years of drafts. We drafted 13 first day players and the Broncos have drafted 11 (note – Bell replaces the Portis pick). Further, the Texans have generated 7 starters (Carr, Johnson, Gaffney, Pitts, Wand, Babin, Robinson) from their T12 and the Broncos have generated 4 starters (I think – Lelie, Foster, Haywood, Williams) from their T12.

 

[El Tejano]

Yeah but alot of that had to do with the Broncos already having more quality players at their respective positions. Don't you think?

 

[HJam72]

Yeah but alot of that had to do with the Broncos already having more quality players at their respective positions. Don't you think?

Yes, because Denver breaks the salary cap rules, lol.

 

[TheOgre]

Mistril,

If the Broncos had ponied up (p.i.) and signed an early contract extension with Portis, would you have included him in the T12? If so, then I would think that the trade for Bailey and Tatum Bell should include both players in their T12.

 

[Mistril48]

Yeah but alot of that had to do with the Broncos already having more quality players at their respective positions. Don't you think?

I'm not sure I understand you comment.

If you are saying that we generated more starters than the Broncos because they have more quality players at their respective positions, I would completeley agree. I think the number of current starters, while a fact (the limitation being the real possibility that I'll make mistake about other teams starters), isn't particularly meaningful. I completely agree with you, if this is your point, that the Texans have had an easier time than most teams in developing their draft picks, because they needed help at virtually every position. It's been easier to start their draft picks.

If you are saying that it was easier for the Texans to draft players, because the Broncos had more quality players at their respective positions, then I also agree with you. It has been relatively easy for the Texans to draft the best player available, regardless of position, because they needed help everywhere. Just because it has been easier though, that doesn't mean they haven't done an excellent job.

IMO, as Texan fans we will have to accept that it will be more difficult in the future for the Texans to draft and develop impact players for their team.

 

[TexansTrueFan]

Yes, because Denver breaks the salary cap rules, lol.

Yeah and the break knees, necks, and peoples careers so they most likely break the cap . Love tha post Mistril48 We are definatley on the rise !

 

[Mistril48]

Mistril,

If the Broncos had ponied up (p.i.) and signed an early contract extension with Portis, would you have included him in the T12? If so, then I would think that the trade for Bailey and Tatum Bell should include both players in their T12.

Q. Would you have included Portis?

A. It depends on what you are trying to compare. If you are trying to compare teams abilities to make selections in the draft, then all selected players should be concluded, regardless of any later trades, or contract extensions (and probably only compared after several years to see what you've got).

In my case, I'm trying to compare the quality of the Texans' less expensive talent (for example, Chester Pitts has a 2004 cap value of $705,000, but Steve McKinney has a 2004 cap value of $3,050,000) with that of other teams. My thesis is that the Texans (and the Browns) were not treated fairly in there early years and that one of the reasons they didn't have a chance to compete equally was they didn't have an equal number of high talent, less expensive players, like Casey Hampton, Richard Seymore, etc. I believe that the Texans have now caught up with other teams, because of Casserly's mastery and additional expansion picks, some of which occurred in the second (or after trades, the third) year. I also believe that after next year (our 4th year), we will have accumulated a base of less expensive talent (although it will turn over each year) that will ensure we have at least a good team for many years.

I view Portis in the same light as drafting a player with an injury history. Everyone knew Portis expected to be drafted earlier and that he would be annoyed by being drafted so low. Denver took a risk. It paid off early, in that he was successful running in their system, behind their experienced line. The bad news is that his success translated into his demands for an early extension and an early release from the 'less expensive' talent group. The good news is that Denver traded him for Bailey and a pick so that by including the additional pick (Bell) they aren't losing a body out of their less expensive group list.

Generalizations are always dangerous, such as assuming that all drafted players are 'less expensive' or that two groups of drafted players are equally 'less expensive'. Contract extensions will further muddy the comparison. For example, if Chester Pitts signs an extension that blends one 'less expensive' year with several free agent years (which he might to get a prepaid signing bonus and the Texans might to get salary cap relief), then he should still be included because the Texans are still getting the benefit of the less expensive 4th year, although it will be blended and harder to see it.

I don't believe Portis felt that he owed Denver a 3rd and 4th 'less expensive' year and accordingly they moved him on. In a cap sense, getting Bailey was exactly like they signed him off the street, like the Texans signed Wade, or Smith.