BADBOY's 2019 offseason FA, trade possibilities and draft thoughts

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by badboy, Mar 1, 2019.

  1. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    Purpose of thread to consolidate my posts from other threads such as new contracts and 'ideal off season'; offer my info from my resources and answer questions I get into one location. Hope you enjoy the read.

    my quote from my thread "new contracts".

    Many on this MB and other sources I review are adamant nay horrified that Le'Veon Bell wants his historical efforts to be recognised as not only one of best, consistent running backs but also as a receiver. Also that he compares himself to Gurley and there have been comments about his locker room 'disruption' and his weight. I have already addressed those elsewhere & will try not to repeat here unless a specific post requires.
     
  2. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    This from another thread and one I will use and adjust ongoing in this thread. Unlike previous offseasons, Houston has lots of cap space (Thank you Chris Olson for getting team out of cap hell) and for once free agent options [some limited to one or two at certain positions] of experienced, young, reasonably cost effective players at our need positions. I will address the offensive line, corners, safeties and running backs as my priorities. I will try not to get bogged down in arguments on why I don't want certain players that I have already commented on ad nauseum nor will {help me Jesus} respond to comments about guys like Davenport, Bell, Lamar Miller as my POV is well known. Also will try to keep these "topical posts" short enough to read without taking a nap and restricted to one player or subject matter. As new info arrives for me frequently, I will skip around between areas of thread's title.
     
  3. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    The field of teams possibly interested in Antonio Brown and or Le'Veon Bell seems to be constricting. I found out last night that Colts are now out as interested in both and Forty Niners out on Bell. Oakland may remain interested in both although Gruden/Mayock have said not interested in older vets.
    https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/r...ock-explains-what-hes-seeking-nfl-free-agency
    I'll next post an example of a deal I created to meet Bell's alleged criteria taking into account the afore said shrinking buyers.
     
  4. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    RB Todd Gurley's extension with important points in guaranteed (GTD) money posted above. Gurley in July 2018 signed four year extension that added $3 m to 2018 cap and just under one half million to 2019. Escalators can bring overall total from $57.5 m to $60 m if earned. The difference in age would also impact my offer to Bell.

    Le'Veon Bell five year $70 m with $45 m GTD {48 yr three} and a $20 m signing bonus prorated five years.
    Todd Gurley four year $60 m with $45 m GTD and a $21 m signing bonus prorated four years.

    Le'Veon Bell 2019 first year of deal $8 m base salary + $4 m prorated = $12 m cap & $28 m GTD paid.
    Todd Gurley 2019 is final year orig deal but prorate begins 5 m base + 4.2 = $9 m cap.

    *note 2020 TG begins huge roster bonuses that become GTD that I've not put into Bell's example just to simplify.

    2019: $8 m base + $4 m prorated bonus= $12 m cap and $28 m GTD paid. 27 YOA season's end.
    2020: $8 m base + $4 m = $12 m $36 28
    2021: $8 m base + $4 m = $12 m $44 (45 owed) 29

    2022: worded as desired to meet team needs as no GTD left. $8 m prorated remains as dead money for cap
    2023: same as 2022

    *2019 GTD total is close to reported $33 m by Pittsburgh that in actuality didn't pay 33 year one but was 'floated' through the years that in fact may not have been earned.

    * likely {LTBE} and not likely to be earned (NLTBEs)incentives can be used with latter not counted until next year cap.

    * I think it would show Bell his respect as Hopkins as a 27 YOA extended 5 yr $81 m $49m GTD
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2019
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  5. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    LTBE incentives are just that and count against cap as soon as met. OTOH, Not Likely to Be Earned (NLTBE) incentives are often used but not mentioned when throwing around contract numbers. If earned they are applied retroactively after season ends. Something unusual is soon to happen as 2020 is the final year of current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) for NFL and Players Association. This could impact Texans signing free agents now with said contracts extending past 2020.
    Included changes are:

    1. The 30% rule restricting the annual increase of a contract for seasons after CBA ends.

    2. The 2020 FINAL LEAGUE YEAR will allow teams to have one franchise tag player and a transition tag player in effect keeping two players from leaving in free agency. WR Will Fuller, DJ Reader, Dylan Cole and maybe Martin?

    3. No post June 1st designations postponing dead money to following season.

    4. Not Likely To Be Earned incentives as do LTBE will count immediately in 2020. Teams like NE used this a lot. $40 million 2018.

    http://www.espn.com.au/nfl/story/_/id/26073422/nfl-cba-quirks-a-big-effect-2020-offseason
     
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  6. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    FA Ronald Darby CB 5'11" 193 4.38 (top performer) vert 41.5 arms 31 3/8" PFF 3/4 years NFL over 70% with 2016 @ 68.3 and ranked best corner FA avail.

    Per OTC Market value 6 years @ $80.8 m at $13.46 avg. 7th highest CB in NFL. My offer compares to Jags AJ Bouye's (remember him?) 5 yr $67.5 m $25 m guaranteed and $10 m signing bonus. Roster bonus game 9 seasons one and two due to historical injuries. Expected 100% by preseason.

    My offer: 6 year $80 m $25 m GTD and a $10 m signing bonus:
    Year BASE SALARY Prorated Roster CAP Total GTD paid
    2019 $ 4 m $2 m $2 m $8 m $16 m
    2020 $ 8 2 1 11 25 and done
    2021 12.5 2 14.5 $6 m dead if cut/traded
    2022 12.5 2 14.5 4
    2023 15 2 17 2
    2024 15 15

    Player info: 2nd round pick by Bills with good stats but HC fired 2017 & Darby traded to Eagles for slot WR and a 3rd round. 2017 broke ankle game one vs Dallas returned game 11 = 34 Ts, 9 PBUs and 3 INTs 8 games.
    2018 started first 8 games then tore ACL ending season. 43 Ts, 12 PBUs and 1 INT.
    Born January 2, 1994 Compared at combine to Johnathan Joseph.
     
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  7. OptimisticTexan

    OptimisticTexan Hall of Fame

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    I think signing Bell is doable and makes the kind of impact the Texans need. Eliminates the need to draft a RB in 2019. The Texans would have Bell, Foreman, Miller and yes, I'd sign Blue b/c of his system knowledge And ability to be an above average performer on ST's.
     
  8. infantrycak

    infantrycak Admin & Mod Staff Member

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    The Texans don't normally carry 4 RBs. And Blue has no upside. Familiarity isn't sufficient.
     
  9. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    I'd dump Miller (cap space) and draft Darrell Henderson. Bell/Forman and Henderson--whooee.
     
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  10. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    LT/RT Trenton Brown no market value has been set. I used Taylor Lewan and Jake Matthews deals similar ages when extended. Note Lewan was considered top 3 OT and had two pro bowls. Matthews was fortunate Solder had just domino'd but his PFF was 79.2 to Brown's 71. I recognise Brown switched to LT 2018 and started all. He can be cut after season two with only $6 m dead money. Avg for LTs $14 m.

    Eight years $122 m. $32 m GTD includes $16 million signing & can be adjusted up by $8 if needed. 26-33 YOA

    Year Base Prorated CAP GTD PAID
    2019 $8 $2 $10 $24
    2020 $8 $2 $10 $32 and completed
    2021- $15 $15 $6 2 each x3 dead if traded/cut
    2026
     
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  11. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    This is first entire Nfl round one mock I've done in years due to too much research, old eyes and waking up one hour after saying "wait! what if?" stumbling to desk and powering up the Dell. Trades are based upon info from several sources including from combine recently.


    NY Giants trade #6 to Miami for 1.13 + 2.33 (Cards) + 2.48. Those traded then to Raiders for Derek Carr. Raiders trade #27 +#33 +#35 to Texans for Clowney.
    Miami turns #6 into Josh Rosen and #33 from Arizona. Second rounder helps safety net on Rosen's 2018 stats.
    Jags sign QB Nick Foles FA

    1.1 Arizona QB Kyler Murray
    1.2 SFran Edge Nick Bosa
    1.3 Jets Edge Josh Allen
    1.4 Oak QB Dwayne Haskins
    1.5 Den QB Drew Lock Combine info says GM Elway loves him ready to move on.
    1.6 Arizona OT Andre Dillard but could be Jonah Williams or J. Taylor
    1.7 Jags DE Q WIlliams
    1.8 Lions CB Andres Williams
    1.9 Bills OT Jonah Williams see #6
    1.10 TBay OT J.Taylor see #6
    1.11 Cinn DL Ed Oliver
    1.12 GBay pass rusher Montes Sweat (crazy 40 time)
    1.13 Oak WR Metcalf
    1.14 Falcons Edge Polite
    1.15 Wash DL Clellin Ferrell
    1.16 Carol DL Rashan Gary
    1.17 Brwn OT Greg Little
    1.18 Minn DL C. Wilkens
    1.19 Tenn Edge Ximines
    1.20 Pitt ILB Devin White (crazy combine)
    1.21 Seatt Safe Thompson
    1.22 Ravens WR AJ Brown
    1.23 TXNS DE/OLB Jaylon Ferguson
    1.24 Oak ILB Mack Wilson
    1.25 Eagles OT McGary
    1.26 Indy Safe Adderly
    1.27 TXNS OG Ford
    1.28 Chrgr DL Tillery
    1.29 KC RB Jacobs
    1.30 GBAY TE Fant
    1.31 Rams DL Zach Allen
    1.32 PATs WR Arcega-Whitesides
     
  12. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    The Raiders trade Mack for picks because they don't want to spend big $. Then the next year, spend a bunch of picks and presumably sign Clowney to a big contract? Does that make any sense to you? Especially in a year where there are plenty of edge rushers in the draft, coming in on rookie contracts? I would say Oakland is 31st out of the 31 teams likely to trade for Clowney.
     
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  13. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Yep,

    Crazy
     
  14. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    Didn't you and I discuss this on another thread not long ago? If not you, I know I have posted a response at least once as why Oakland would do this.
     
  15. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    Hearing from sources that Ronald Darby being considered as best FA corner and many teams very interested which could drive cost way up. His injury last season doesn't seem to be creating much concern.
     
  16. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    The Raiders didn’t hire draft guru Mike Mayock just to trade away a bunch of picks. They’re building through the draft.
     
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  17. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Building for the Vegas move.
     
  18. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    I'll give you guys some advice: Don't hold your breath waiting on a Clowney trade.
     
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  19. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Yep, it's not going to happen.
     
  20. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    Discussion on Landon Collins if Badger goes to Giants:
    https://www.profootballfocus.com/ne...best-off-ball-linebacker-entering-free-agency

    https://www.northjersey.com/story/s...-strong-run-adding-tyrann-mathieu/3091316002/
     

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