Are Texans sitting on their hands again?

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by TripleTap, Mar 2, 2019.

  1. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2013
    Messages:
    2,502
    Likes Received:
    2,270
    Maybe, but where is my analysis off?

    I think they are worried about 2021. They have $112m of capspace but need to extend Clowney and Watson and I'm counting about 16 other starters plus all the draft classes.
     
  2. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    39,134
    Likes Received:
    11,582
    That's pretty normal at some point for all teams. They all have expiring contracts
     
    steelbtexan likes this.
  3. infantrycak

    infantrycak Admin & Mod Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2004
    Messages:
    80,634
    Likes Received:
    20,259
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    Watson was drafted outside the top 10 so his option year for 2021 will be the average of the 3rd thru 25th QB in 2020. His 2020 cap hit is $4.4 mil but almost half is prorated signing bonus which will not apply to 2021. The 2019 transition tag (top 10 averaged) is $22.7 but salaries drop fast after top 10. So yes a sizeable jump. But that's kind of a good thing since players aren't generally pissed at 5th year options. And there are hefty fines for refusing. $30k per day for not reporting and full game checks for not playing preseason.
     
  4. powda

    powda Team BLEACH!

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2004
    Messages:
    7,584
    Likes Received:
    3,705
    List the other starters up for contract.

    List the vet players between 30 - 35 with big contracts.

    List an honest number of draft picks between now and then.

    Project a natural cap increase over 2 years.

    ________

    Teams hold big contracts for multiple players and maintain a team all the time. Much ado about nothing.
     
    steelbtexan and JB like this.
  5. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2007
    Messages:
    31,543
    Likes Received:
    11,237
    Keep telling yourself that

    The Texans are a team that cashes in on a few star players.

    They've not interested in winning, as long as they keep making bank..

    Rihanna sing me a tune
     
  6. powda

    powda Team BLEACH!

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2004
    Messages:
    7,584
    Likes Received:
    3,705
    Probably sounds like an exercise in futility, but it illustrates the natural progression of any team. Look forward to your answer kdog.
     
  7. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2013
    Messages:
    2,502
    Likes Received:
    2,270
    2020 Texans FAs:
    Mercilus
    Miller
    Joseph
    Griffin
    Seantrel
    Reader
    Dunn
    Martin

    2021 Texans FAs:
    Kelemente
    Hal (will he start this year?)
    Fuller
    Mancz (sometimes starts)
    Cunningham
    Davenport
    Foreman in 2021 also if he takes over for Miller in 2020


    Vet players between 30-35 with big contracts:
    Watt FA in 2022
    Hopkins FA in 2023

    # of draft picks:
    2019: they own 8
    2020-21: they own 14

    NFL cap increase:
    -2019 cap is currently $191m and the Texans have $75m under contract for 2021 (counting zero for Watson and Clowney.)
    -if no change in cap that leaves them with $116m in capspace, but if they sign Clowney and Watson for $50m combined (probably low) that leaves $66m for signing or replacing all the FAs listed above plus draft picks
    -the $10m cap increase for 2019 was considered large. Even if the cap increases $20 next two years, that still leaves the Texans with only $83k for all those FAs and draft picks with $20m they can't count on
    -$83m for 12 starters is $7m per starter. Of course rookies may take some of those spots.
    -if the cap doesn't increase, Watson and Clowney make more than $50m combined, and/or the drafts don't pan out, they'll need some more cap space to replace FAs with more than just replacement level guys

    I think this is why they don't want to really break the bank for Clowney and they haven't done something like sign Trent Brown for $26m for 3 years plus keep Matthieu. They'll probably have to give in to Watson's high market value. Guys like Kirk Cousins are already near $30m.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2019
    maverick512000, CWTexansFan and powda like this.
  8. Speedy

    Speedy Yeller Dweller

    Joined:
    May 1, 2004
    Messages:
    6,282
    Likes Received:
    4,642
    Location:
    The Livable Forest
    To hell with 2019 then. Let's shoot for 2021. Well, unless by then we're shooting for 2023.
     
    CWTexansFan and steelbtexan like this.
  9. powda

    powda Team BLEACH!

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2004
    Messages:
    7,584
    Likes Received:
    3,705
    Most of the fa's you mention are cut worthy.

    The cap WILL increase.

    Not sure if you understand yearly salary vs bonus's.
     
    CWTexansFan and steelbtexan like this.
  10. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2013
    Messages:
    2,502
    Likes Received:
    2,270
    Ok but if they cut them who will replace them? Are we just assuming rookies or cheap FAs can fill all the cut players? 12 starters in two draft classes (15 picks) is a lot.

    I assumed a $10m per year cap increase and it still doesn't look great



    I have the cap hits for those players.
     


  11. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2013
    Messages:
    2,502
    Likes Received:
    2,270
    I'm really not sure what the Texans are shooting for. I guess 2018 was their shot.
     
  12. powda

    powda Team BLEACH!

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2004
    Messages:
    7,584
    Likes Received:
    3,705
    Very few of the guys you mentioned are worthy of meaningful contracts and easily replaceable. Lots will get cut.

    You do understand reported salaries and bonuses can be stretched and maneuvered over the course of years.

    Watson's potential salary is a concern no doubt 2 years from now. And clowneys salary can be structured to fit our needs just the same.

    Not really a big deal.

    This is part and parcel for EVERY team. I find it odd that we started free agency with the 4th most cap space in the league and you've convinced yourself we're in cap hell somehow.

    I think if you manage your money the way you view our cap you could retire very very early. But you wont. Because you may be cheaper then cal.

    Not an insult. Just...fiscally ocd.
     
    JB likes this.
  13. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2007
    Messages:
    31,543
    Likes Received:
    11,237
    When is the last time it went down?

    I'm glad you got my sense of humor.
     
  14. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2007
    Messages:
    31,543
    Likes Received:
    11,237
    Oh, I notice

    I also notice what other teams with franchise QB's are doing.

    Somebody needs to be fired if you're right. Which is debatable
     
  15. Insideop

    Insideop Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 26, 2006
    Messages:
    2,914
    Likes Received:
    989
    Location:
    In the "Control Room"

    At some point all players are either cut or retire and then replaced by a younger player (Rookie or FA). That's just the way it is. Even if Watt plays at a high level until 2022 I can't see a team giving him another contract like he's on now. It will probably only be a one or 2 year cap friendly deal that may be heavily loaded with performance bonuses and that type of thing. Also, there's no guarantee that he will stay in Houston past this contract or that the Texans might trade him between now and then if he has a decline in performance. It's just too far down the road to even speculate what will or will not happen for Watt, D-Hop, or any other player for that matter. Teams in the NFL are constantly turning over their rosters. Most players just don't stay that long on the same team unless they are the Franchise QB (See the Pats).

    Also, did the Texans pick up an extra draft pick this year? Thought they only had 7 picks with 2 in the 2nd round but none in the 4th.
     
  16. OptimisticTexan

    OptimisticTexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    6,028
    Likes Received:
    3,888
    Good post. The Texans have 7 picks....had 8 but lost their RD4 in the DT trade with the Broncos.
     
    Insideop likes this.
  17. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2013
    Messages:
    2,502
    Likes Received:
    2,270
    It isn't about guys getting cut, it's guys becoming free agents. So them leaving doesn't save capspace for 2021 because they aren't signed for 2021.

    And easily replaced? Maybe. It's not so easy if we sign Trent Brown for $26m and then have only like $5 million per position in free agency to spend. Then we'll look even cheaper in free agency than we do now.

    Isn't that what we're complaining about? That we are going cheap in free agency? Well that happens when you don't have capspace over multiple years.

    And it's not like there are a bunch of big contracts for bad players we can cut. These FAs are mostly rookie contracts due for raises (especially guys like Fuller or Cunningham) or vets who might get raises too (Mercilus, Kelemente, Miller). I mean Lamm of all people got $7 million.

    Of course there are some complete duds like Griffin and Seantrel plus Joseph is old, but they are already on pretty cheap contracts so if we replace them with equally cheap contracts their replacements will suck too.

    We can easily let non star vets like Mercilus, Kelemente, Miller and Joseph go and find cheaper replacements. But remember that doesn't clear any cap room for 2021 because they aren't signed for 2021 and people will complain about the cheapness like they are now

    And yes they can backload or frontload contracts to move the cap hits around, but didnt Gaine and O'Brien say they didn't want to do that anymore? It's what Rick and kubiak did a lot.i could see them sign some guys by frontloading their cap hits to 2019 and less cap hit for 2021 but I don't think they want to have so much dead money.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2019
    ObsiWan and CWTexansFan like this.
  18. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2013
    Messages:
    2,502
    Likes Received:
    2,270
    They also received a 7th back in the demaryius trade

    And yes most teams always have some guys who leave and are replaced with rookies or FAs. My point is the Texans dont appear to be prepared at all for the upcoming batch of FAs with little in the way of rookies or capspace to replace them unless they really nail the next two drafts and find some bargain bin quality vets. But that's what people are complaining about, going cheap
     
    CWTexansFan likes this.
  19. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    39,134
    Likes Received:
    11,582
    So what can we (as fans) do about it?
     
  20. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2013
    Messages:
    2,502
    Likes Received:
    2,270
    Demand obrien gets fired. Ultimately a coach gets fired when the fans have had enough
     

Share This Page