Analysis of First Round Draft History Between RB and OT

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by gg no re, Nov 28, 2005.

  1. gg no re

    gg no re iggnorent

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    This is a look at the first round drafts from 1996 to 2003 concerning drafted OTs and drafted RBs.

    Why did I choose this sample size? I consider 03 to be a good stopping point in terms of fair evaluations, and 96 seems to be a good starter.

    Feel free to critique whether my hit/miss is accurate. Some people I label as hits, could be considered a mediocre player fortunate enough to never be challenged [Harris, Petitgout].

    Some people labeled as whiffs, could be considered hits, but I'm at odds [mainly, Turley and Thomas Jones].

    In that sense, the numbers I put out for overall first round picks is subject to chance, and I'll probably go with your word if you say, "Player X definitely is a Hit/Player Z definitely is a Whiff."

    When it comes to my hit/miss ratios for Top 10 picks, that's a different story. I'm pretty certain that I got them right. [Unless people argue that Turley is a hit]

    Is this an addenum to the Bush/OT debate? You bet your horses it is.

    Does history repeat itself? Lightning never strikes twice? You make the call.


    1996
    OT
    Jonathan Ogden - Hit
    Willie Anderson - Hit
    John Michels - Whiff
    Jamain Stephens - Whiff
    Andre Johnson - Whiff

    RB
    Lawrence Phillips - Whiff
    Tim Biakabatuka - Whiff
    Eddie George - Hit


    1997
    OT
    Orlando Pace - Hit
    Walter Jones - Hit
    Tarik Glenn - Hit
    Ross Verba - Hold

    RB
    Warrick Dunn - Hit
    Antowain Smith - Whiff


    1998
    OT
    Kyle Turley - Whiff
    Tra Thomas - Hit
    Victor Riley - Whiff

    RB
    Curtis Enis - Whiff
    Fred Taylor - Hit
    Robert Edwards - Whiff
    John Avery - Whiff


    1999
    OT
    John Tait - Hit
    Luke Petitgout - Hit
    L.J. Shelton - Hit
    Aaron Gibson - Whiff

    RB
    Edgerrin James - Hit
    Ricky Williams - Puff


    2000
    OT
    Chris Samuels - Hit
    Stockar McDougle - Whiff
    Chris McIntosh - Whiff

    RB
    Jamal Lewis - Hit
    Thomas Jones - Whiff
    Ron Dayne - Whiff
    Shaun Alexander - Hit
    Trung Candidate - Whiff


    2001
    OT
    Leonard Davis - Hit
    Kenyatta Walker - Whiff
    Jeff Backus - Hit

    RB
    LaDanian Tomlinson - Hit
    Deuce McAlister - Hit
    Michael Bennett - Whiff


    2002
    OT
    Mike Williams - Whiff
    Bryant McKinnie - Hit
    Levi Jones - Hit
    Marc Colombo - Whiff
    Kendall Simmons - Hit

    RB
    William Green - Whiff
    T.J. Duckett - Hit


    2003
    OT
    Jordan Gross - Hit
    George Foster - Hit
    Kwame Harris - Hit

    RB
    Willis McGahee - Hit
    Larry Johnson - Hit



    TOTAL:
    OT
    Top Ten - 8/10 = 80%
    Overall - 18/30 = 60%


    RB
    Top Ten - 3/6 = 50%
    Overall - 11/23 = 44%



    Conclusion: History shows that drafting OTs yields a higher probability of draft success over drafting RBs. When it comes to Top Ten drafting, success in OT drafting is significantly higher than RB drafting.

    What does this mean?

    1) Drafting Ferguson/Winston is the safe choice, FREENEY WHO?

    2) History means nothing! Draft Bush, MOVE OVER COLTS.
     
  2. MorKnolle

    MorKnolle Hall of Fame

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    I'm not sure how Thomas Jones and Ron Dayne are whiffs and TJ Duckett is a hit, but otherwise I agree with your deductions.
     
  3. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    noice! thats a clasic.
     
  4. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    this last part confused me, would you please explain? maybe its me, but freeney never played OL or RB, and is now part of the conclusion. You also say OL is the safe choice in number one, but say draft bush in number two.
     
  5. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    very nice work put in by the way, much appreciated.

    score one for the good guys...(pro OL)
    menos puntos for the bad guys...(pro bush)


    excellent!
     
  6. cadahnic

    cadahnic All Pro

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    Why the hell is Mike Williams a whiff and othe OTs whiffs that played well in this league for a good period of time. This is a good observation, and yes it is more likely that you get a good OL than a RB since OL put up larger bodies of work and are a bit easier to evaluate.
     
  7. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    Some of the guys in the "whiff" category had their careers cut short due to injuries.

    Kyle Turley - Pretty good RT before his back flared up.
    Robert Edwards - Had a very solid rookie season. Knee blown up in that Pro Bowl beach football game.
    Chris McIntosh - Neck injury forced him out of football.
    Marc Colombo - Has battled with a knee injury most of his career.
     
  8. swtbound07

    swtbound07 Jackass of Day!

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    i would like to take a moment to point out how bad kenyatta walker is and how much the people of tampa hate him. That is all.
     


  9. F-minus67

    F-minus67 Hall of Fame

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    After reading your artical it does seem that linemen do pan out better than running backs. But in this years draft the two best tackles have had problems. Winston had the horrible knee injury and we all know this teams history with tackles with injuries. While Ferguson can't seem to keep weight on, but most o linemen have the opposite problem(see Aaron Gibson).
     
  10. Napa Auto Parts

    Napa Auto Parts Hall of Fame

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    Mike williams was benched for a free agent that got pick up of the streets:sarcasm: and i believe the number was 30 sacks or more accredited to williams for his career. but they played him at guard this week.
     
  11. gg no re

    gg no re iggnorent

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    Thank you all for your input.

    MorKnolle: I understand your questioning, so here is what I had in mind when I labeled them:

    Thomas Jones - Didn't stay in Arizona, Bears wanted to go with Cedric Benson over him originally. Since he is performing pretty well right now, it's been really hard to put him on hit/whiff.

    Ron Dayne - Didn't pan out for New York. Since he is playing for the Broncos right now, it wouldn't be fair to put him as a hit at the moment.

    T.J. Duckett - I put him as a hit, because I haven't heard of any ill will towards him. I also give him a little credit, since his carries are taken away by the presence of Vick and Dunn.

    If T.J. and Thomas switch, it wouldn't affect the overall hit/miss for now, so I'll leave it be until another suggestion comes by.


    YoungTexanFan: Clarification on the last part; implying that by going with OT over RB, we probably don't have to worry about Freeney taking Carr from behind. By going RB over OT, we ignore recent trends and cross our fingers for our oline, but we could put out a more threatening offense than the Colts.
     
  12. Youngstown Colt

    Youngstown Colt All Pro

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    Ross Verba should not be considered a hit.

    A hold is more appropriate.
     

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