Abolish 4th down punts.

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by rockabilly, Oct 19, 2005.

  1. rockabilly

    rockabilly Veteran

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    I think we are so deep into the season and so outmatched against any team that we play this season, especially the colts, I think we should abolish punting on 4th down when it it is 4th and 5 or less, and we are past our own 45 yard line.

    2nd down is usually OUR 4th down. I think this offense needs an extra down to get the job done and can be more efficient if they follow my "over 45 with 5 to go plan."

    An extra down gives our D one more play or possible more rest time between series plus begins to tire, irritate, and confuse the opposing defense.

    Im not trying to be funny here sadly. But I think it should be an option when you are already 0-5 and your offense is the least productive.
     
  2. Vinny

    Vinny shiny happy fan Staff Member

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    if you aren't trying to be funny then you aren't credible. Punts are a big part of field position and making teams drive the length of the field. One of our problems on offense is we have long fields we have to drive and do not have many short fields....you are talking about giving the other teams more short fields.
     
  3. ArlingtonTexan

    ArlingtonTexan Moderator Staff Member

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  4. rockabilly

    rockabilly Veteran

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    Did you see the score Sunday night? Apparently punting doesnt help this team. Our defense is too soft. The seahawks easily drove 90 yards for a td. The only way this team can win is if the other team doesnt have the ball.

    On field position, if you turnover the ball on a 4th down attempt on the 50 yard line, it is not that big a difference considering our defense.

    Im for punting on 4th if we are below our own 45 yard line. But I think if we get that far and close to their side of the field we need to take advantage if we only have 5 yards to go on a 4th.
     
  5. Vinny

    Vinny shiny happy fan Staff Member

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    You need some football 101. This can't work...if it did other teams would do it.
     
  6. Double Barrel

    Double Barrel Modified Simian

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    This sounds like a technique employed by online Madden cheesers. Never punting and always kicking offsides. :loser

    As mentioned by Vinny, starting field position is probably one of the most important overlooked stats in football. It can easily make or break games with teams that are evenly matched.
     
  7. Vinny

    Vinny shiny happy fan Staff Member

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    LOL, that's what I was thinking.
     
  8. rockabilly

    rockabilly Veteran

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    We are always un-evenly matched.

    And the reason other teams don't do it is because no other team is as pathetic as we are or have a swiss cheese defense. Everyone on this board talks about how bad the offense is. Well, the defense is just as horrid.
     


  9. Vinny

    Vinny shiny happy fan Staff Member

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    This is not what I'd consider intelligent football talk. Most fans from other teams would just laugh at how dumb we are considering this stuff man.
     
  10. Runner

    Runner Hubcap Diamond Staff Member

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    Never punting would certainly lead to some high scores - against the team that doesn't punt.

    I remember seeing an article in Discover a few years ago where a mathematician "proved" that always going for it on 4th down would improve a teams chances of winning.

    The flaw in all this, of course, was that the historical data he had to work with was skewed to:

    a) 4th and very short situations, where most teams consider going for it on 4th down and many do regardless of game time

    b) most teams that go for it on 4th down, even very short yardage, already have field postion on their side

    c) 4th and long when teams are still close in score but time is winding down, so going for it on 4th down has a higher percentage of leading to a win when compared to going for it on 4th and 7 during the first quarter because they refuse to punt out of hand

    They also explored such sports mysteries such as:

    Do curve balls curve? Yes

    Do "rising" fast balls rise? No - they just don't drop as far as normal.
     
  11. rockabilly

    rockabilly Veteran

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    ok. so i guess the idea is a little stupid. sadly its the only thing i can think of..as there is nothing else this team can do this year to imrprove. I really do see 0-16.
     
  12. Runner

    Runner Hubcap Diamond Staff Member

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    Here are some references to the statistical payback of always going for it on 4th down.

    Press release for David Romer's study:
    http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2002/08/19_ftball.html

    ESPN analysis of the study:
    http://espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1453717.html

    For the mathematically inclined, the paper itself:
    http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf

    Abstract
    This paper uses play-by-play accounts of virtually all regular season National Football League games for 1998-2000 to analyze teamsÂ’ choices on fourth down to estimate the values of possessing the ball at different points on the field. These estimates are combined with data on the results of kicks and conventional plays to estimate the average payoffs to kicking and going for it under different circumstances. Examination of teamsÂ’ actual decisions shows systematic, overwhelmingly statistically significant, and quantitatively large departures from decisions the dynamic-programming analysis implies are preferable.​



    I leave further analysis of this paper to the board.
     
  13. Texas

    Texas Hall of Fame

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    Thats madden. This is real life. If you think about us doing that every time. What would that do? Nothing really accept increase the other teams Point Average against us. We 80% of the time wouldnt get the first down and when we did we'd still have to continue moving upfield. I agree this is more like a rookie on madden's type of idea but keep it up. It works there :)
     
  14. Ibar_Harry

    Ibar_Harry Hall of Fame

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    Vinny the problem is that we never can contain the other team when we do pen them back. I understand and actually feel the same way. It sounds strange but our defense is not doing anything to get the ball back to us. We seldom see a 3 and out. The one way you beat Manning is keep the ball away from him. He looses rythm just like Carr and he gets frustrated when he's behind. He does make mistakes when pressured. You are not going to beat Indy by playing a normal game. I would say I would look at every 4th down and evaluate it based on what the punt game my get me vs if I got a 1st down. Its a must to keep the Indy offense off of the field.
     
  15. humbleone

    humbleone Veteran

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    Actually, for this team, the opposite to your idea makes more sense we should punt on every third and long instead of not punting on 4th down. Why...because our ability to convert third downs is practically zero anyway and this would reduce our sacks improving field position more than it would currently cost us in missed opportunities to continue.... oh what is that word when teams make first downs and move down the field??? oh yeah "drives".

    (BTW, I am venting not advocating)
     
  16. ledzeppelin229

    ledzeppelin229 Hall of Fame

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    Like our offense has done anything with the ball when it finally gets it.
     
  17. Vinny

    Vinny shiny happy fan Staff Member

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    If you can't get it in three downs your odds of getting in one is not good...I can't believe our fans are discussing this credibly.
     
  18. Ibar_Harry

    Ibar_Harry Hall of Fame

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    He's talking about inside of their 45. By kicking you are probably going to get it brought back to the 20. If your defense could hold them Vinny then I would say its foolish. So if your not going to hold them anyway, may be should give yourself an additinal chance. That's what the logic is all about. I understand how you feel and I know why, but again this not a normal team with a normal defense.

    St Louis was playing the perfect game against INDY until the QB tried to be a hero and took himself out of the game. At that point it was all over. But St Louis did expose a weakness of INDY in that they are human to and do not like pressure. Manning does loose his cool. Like I said in an earlier post wehn he starts talking to the officials you try to upstage that and upset him. We also have to blitz regardless of the consequences, because if we get to him he will throw a hissy fit. Manning himself is the key to upsetting INDY.
     
  19. Vinny

    Vinny shiny happy fan Staff Member

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    :brickwall
     
  20. Double Barrel

    Double Barrel Modified Simian

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    We've got a great punter. Probably one of the better players [at his position] on our team.

    I think the chances of downing the ball inside the 20 on a punt are greater than our chances of making it on even 10% of our fourth downs (especially considering most of our fourth downs are long).

    Talk like this is for defeatists. We already have a mountain to climb to get an 0-5 start (and most likely 0-6 after Sunday) out of our team's mentality. But giving up on playing field position, a basic premise of ball control football, smells of desperation.

    And if there is anything worse than a losing attitude on a team, it's a desperate losing attitude.

    We have to keep making sound football judgement calls if we want any credibility to exist with our organization, because our long term ability to create a successful team goes well beyond this one season.

    We start making calls like this, we will be the laughing stock in the national media for more than just losing games. And that tag would stay with us for a long, long time (well after Coach Capers & co. have left the building).
     

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