A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by Playoffs, Apr 23, 2013.

  1. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    A Metrics Study Of UNDERVALUED Draft Prospects

     
  2. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    A Metrics Study Of OVERRATED Draft Prospects

     
  3. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder COOL BEANS!

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    Nifty, interesting article. Just for the heck of it, our TT mock draft had the underrated guys at:

    MONTEL HARRIS, RB – TEMPLE - UDFA

    STEDMAN BAILEY, WR – WEST VIRGINIA - 128th overall 49ers


    RYAN GRIFFIN, TE - CONNECTICUT - UDFA

    BRENNAN WILLIAMS, OT – NORTH CAROLINA - 76th overall Chargers

    MESHAK WILLIAMS, DE/OLB – KANSAS STATE - UDFA


    JORDAN HILL, DT – PENN STATE - 136 overall to Philly

    JOSH JOHNSON , CB – PURDUE - UDFA

    JOSH EVANS, S – FLORIDA - 134 to KC
     
  4. mussop

    mussop Hall of Fame

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    Kenny Stills over rated? Don't see it. Hardly ever hear anyone talking him up. I think he is one of the most under rated prospects in this draft.
     
  5. Insideop

    Insideop Hall of Fame

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    This is why I hope the Texans stay away from Hunter in the 1st.

     
  6. Insideop

    Insideop Hall of Fame

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    Of the Undervalued players I noticed several the Texans may have their eyes on and seem to fit the Texans M.O. of players they try to select.

    Griffin seems like a likely Texan pick at TE with great hands. Not to sure about his blocking skills but Draft Scout says he's an aggressive blocker who's tough and compares to Garrett Graham. He's rated to go in the 7th or FA.

    Williams has been picked by several on this MB and other sites to be a fit for the Texans.

    Hill seems like a Wade pick with his quickness as a pass rushing DT. Draft Scout also says he has a "non-stop motor" which is another trait Wade seems to covet.

    Purdue player and CB. I'll be surprised if Rick passes on this one.

    Evans is another guy that a lot of people want us to go after and he seems like a good pupil for Reed and Manning to mentor. He's slated by Draft Scout to go in the 4th and Walter Football puts him between the 3rd and 5th rounds.
     
  7. TejasTom

    TejasTom Heisenwatt

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  8. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    I don't know, this is the first I've seen these metrics at TSV in this much depth.
     


  9. 76Texan

    76Texan Hall of Fame

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    I've read them before, and I like the method, but it doesn't work for all players.
    Also, it seems to me they only take into consideration the last year.

    Underrated or overrated depends on where a player is drafted.

    They didn't like Hunter in the first round, and rightfully so.
    Hunter dropped too many balls per catchable passes and is therefore unreliable in that regard.
    That's why I didn't want to put him in the first round.
    However, his measurables and athleticism is way up there such that his ceiling is higher than a guy like Stedman Bailey, whose production is amongst the best, if not the best.

    Bailey had done pretty much everything right to achieve the results.
    He runs smart route (giving his QB plenty of room away from the defender to throw the ball open.) He played physically to fight off his defender and beat him to the spot. He worked hard and was very efficient in blocking even against bigger defenders. He consistently worked to keep BOTH feet in bound. He's ready to play soon, if not right away.

    But his measurables are quite "pedestrian".
    With him what you see is what you get, but he will be playing against better players in the NFL.
    If he has not much more room to grow, he won't be as successful at the next level. Perhaps he can work to improve his deep speed at least a little.

    Based on his production, end of the fourth is exceptional low, and so they deem that Bailey is underrated.
    I agree. I would put Bailey early to mid third.
    At the least, he can be a slot receiver.
    In a spread offense, he might have a little more value, and should probably earn a late second round grade.
     
  10. 76Texan

    76Texan Hall of Fame

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    For Kenny Stills, they think he's overrated as a third rounder.
    Normally, I would agree; however, there are seasons as to why his YAC isn't all that.

    That offense, between the QB and line play, couldn't afford a vertical game.
    They had to throw short often, and the defense knows it.
    They can play it tighter, daring the QB to go deep.
    When the D play tight, YAC is harder to get.

    A part of Stills' game (the deep routes) couldn't be exploited; some of his values were not realized.

    Overall, Stills has that untapped ceiling, so to me, a third round grade is more in line. I'm not sure he even lasts to our spot.
     
  11. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    I'll be interested to see how valid the metrics projections are using them across all of college football for predicting pro football success. There are reasons it works in baseball that don't necessarily translate to college football, imo.

    Would they have warned us off Peter Warrick, Charles Rogers, Troy Edwards, or all the high drafted D-linemen who regularly bust in the NFL? I dunno.
     

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