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7.5 over/under wins for Texans...

kcdoubleeagle

kcdoubleeagle

Waterboy
Well.....I am definitely an optimist when it comes to the Texans...and I believe that we have an up and coming football team. But, one thing I have been watching is the odds Vegas is putting out on the possible win totals for our team. 7.5 is the over/under.
Last week I was saying that we would blow by that....but...then came the Dallas game and it got me thinking. Maybe Vegas is on to what's really going on...I mean we looked TERRIBLE defensively...just completely exposed. Of course our schedule looks brutal, too.
So...looking at this season objectively...maybe we aren't yet a playoff team. Maybe we are still a few great drafts away from being a real contender. Not so bad considering what Kubiak was left with when he came here...
 
Its PRE-season. I'll wait until the bullets start flying for real before I get worried at all. I see 9-10 wins myself and a outside shot at the playoffs.
 
jaayteetx said:
Its PRE-season. I'll wait until the bullets start flying for real before I get worried at all. I see 9-10 wins myself and a outside shot at the playoffs.
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I agree. Not to mention the Cowgirls are, sadly, one of the deepest teams in the league. And Romo is no slouch. I hate him, but he is a good player which is why our secondary got torn to pieces. And in this entire paragraph I didn't even mention T.O. Wait, I just did...
 
Every year, some crappy ass team with less talent than we've got makes it to the play-offs. Last year, that team won the Super-Bowl...... and I'm being serious.

We've got talent on this team...... we just need these guys to start stepping up, and makeing plays.

There's another thread on this board right now, talking about the "good" game Amobi Okoye had.. how he penetrated, beat his man, and got to the backfield on several occasions..

You know Mario was back there.....

So where were our LBs?? I watched the game again, and noticed we blitzed more often than I thought we did the first time I watched. We still couldn't pressure the QB.

Why aren't we sending CC Brown, or Glen Earl on Blitzes?? Why aren't we sending our corners??

Why would Jaques Reeves(or any of our CBs for that matter) be lined up with Terrell Owens, and not have a safety on top??

But, our offense is something else, if Matt Schaub can stay healthy, If our OL can stay healthy, if AJ can stay healthy, we can score with anybody...... which means we've got comeback potential... we should never be out of a game..... If we can get a run game together, we should be able to protect a lead.

Now, if we could go up by two touchdowns, hopefully we can force other teams to abandon the run game, and we can sit back, make some defensive plays, and look like at least look like a top ten D, even though we aren't.
 
What I want to know. Is where can I go to put money down on those odds. I was in Vegas last week. None of the sports sites had this.
 
Every year some horrible team makes a random ascension into dominance and becomes a perrennial contender. Every year some media darling picked to win it all starts out 0-6.

Its too difficult to predict our strength of schedule before game 1
 
thunderkyss said:
Every year, some crappy ass team with less talent than we've got makes it to the play-offs. Last year, that team won the Super-Bowl...... and I'm being serious.

We've got talent on this team...... we just need these guys to start stepping up, and makeing plays.

There's another thread on this board right now, talking about the "good" game Amobi Okoye had.. how he penetrated, beat his man, and got to the backfield on several occasions..

You know Mario was back there.....

So where were our LBs?? I watched the game again, and noticed we blitzed more often than I thought we did the first time I watched. We still couldn't pressure the QB.

Why aren't we sending CC Brown, or Glen Earl on Blitzes?? Why aren't we sending our corners??

Why would Jaques Reeves(or any of our CBs for that matter) be lined up with Terrell Owens, and not have a safety on top??

But, our offense is something else, if Matt Schaub can stay healthy, If our OL can stay healthy, if AJ can stay healthy, we can score with anybody...... which means we've got comeback potential... we should never be out of a game..... If we can get a run game together, we should be able to protect a lead.

Now, if we could go up by two touchdowns, hopefully we can force other teams to abandon the run game, and we can sit back, make some defensive plays, and look like at least look like a top ten D, even though we aren't.
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Surely, you can't be serious - you honestly think that the Texans had more talent that the Giants?? Hmmm.....
 
I was wondering that myself.
The Giants actually had a running attack and a real defense.
....of course, that defense thing could be due to having a real defensive coordinator.

...but let's not start that "discussion" again.
 
kcdoubleeagle said:
Well.....I am definitely an optimist when it comes to the Texans...and I believe that we have an up and coming football team. But, one thing I have been watching is the odds Vegas is putting out on the possible win totals for our team. 7.5 is the over/under.
Last week I was saying that we would blow by that....but...then came the Dallas game and it got me thinking. Maybe Vegas is on to what's really going on...I mean we looked TERRIBLE defensively...just completely exposed. Of course our schedule looks brutal, too.
So...looking at this season objectively...maybe we aren't yet a playoff team. Maybe we are still a few great drafts away from being a real contender. Not so bad considering what Kubiak was left with when he came here...
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Vegas doesn't care about the team or what they think the team is going to do. They place those lines based on other people's perceptions of the team and how the majority of people think the team is going to do. They set the line to induce betting.

A couple of years ago, I took Vegas' over under and compared it to the actual final standing of the teams. On a couple of teams, Vegas was dead on. The rest of the teams were distributed between a couple of games off to as many as 6-7 games off.

IIRC, last year they had us at 6.5. So, we've improved in the eyes of most people. Yay us.
 
hobie said:
Surely, you can't be serious - you honestly think that the Texans had more talent that the Giants?? Hmmm.....
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You want to do it position by position??

QB
Eli vs Schaub

I think it's a wash...... many here would tell you Schaub hands down.

RB
Brandon Jacobs... Ahmad Bradshaw... Derrick Ward
Ahman Green... Ron Dayne... Samkon Gado... Darius Walker

again, I know you and most everyone on this board would trade everyone of our backs for one of theirs, But Ahmad & Derrick were unknowns when the season started, and Brandon Jacobs was a question mark. If you they were in Houston, I doubt they would have done much better than our guys did.

WR
Plaxico, Steve Smith, Santana Moss
Andre, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis

I think we have the edge, if we're not even

OL
Let's just say they gave up 28 sacks, we gave up 22. I know that's not the end all be all of talent, but that's what we've used for the last 6 years.

TE
Shockey vs Owen
I think it's even. yeah, Owen hasn't put up those probowl numbers just yet, but I think he's just as talented as Jeremy Shockey.

DL
Strahan...... and a bunch of other guys
Mario...... and a bunch of other guys.

Umenyiora is better, more talented than anything we've got, I won't deny that.

LB
Kiwanuka vs Ryans.... I think it's a wash
Pierce vs Greenwood.... wash
??? vs Orr.. whatever

CB
Ross vs Dunta... again, not me, but a lot of the fans here has Dunta as top 10.

Sam Madison vs Faggins..... I like Faggins. I know, I know... but I like Faggins

Safety
Sammy Knight vs CC Brown... I wouldn't trade CC Brown for Sammy Knight. & if I did, I'd want them to throw something else in.

Butler vs Demps... I don't even know who Butler is. But I know who they drafted in '08



Had we made the plays they made.. if we had the schedule, they had. Washington, Philly, Jets, ATL, SanFran, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philly, Buffalo, we would have had 10 wins...... and people would be talking about how talented we are.

But we didn't.
 
thunderkyss said:
So what are you saying?? Eli is better than Schaub??
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Honestly, yes I do. I think alot of us might think Schaub has potential to be better, but hasn't had a chance to prove us right due to injuries.

Their DLine completely destroys ours

Their WR corps is actually a bit better than ours. You forgot to mention Toomer

Their RB's blow our away

Their secondary is much better than ours.

Their LBs last season were much better than ours.
 
HOU-TEX said:
Honestly, yes I do. I think alot of us might think Schaub has potential to be better, but hasn't had a chance to prove us right due to injuries.
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I misstated that.. what I meant to say, is do you think Eli is more talented than Schaub.... whatever Schaub has had the chance to prove, and whatever injuries he may have had to deal with doesn't matter.

Are the Giants more talented than we are??

THey played better, I'm not arguing that. They had better success, I'm not arguing that. But I don't believe they are more talented.

Even with Amani Toomer. I think we're more talented at WR.
 
thunderkyss said:
I misstated that.. what I meant to say, is do you think Eli is more talented than Schaub.... whatever Schaub has had the chance to prove, and whatever injuries he may have had to deal with doesn't matter.

Are the Giants more talented than we are??

THey played better, I'm not arguing that. They had better success, I'm not arguing that. But I don't believe they are more talented.

Even with Amani Toomer. I think we're more talented at WR.
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What does that mean? Eli has started 55 games to Schaub's 13. Eli is much more experienced and yes, he is more talented than Schaub at this time.

Yes, they are more talented at this time.

If you're saying we have more talent than the Giants you're basically saying our coaching staff sucks, right?
 
thunderkyss said:
Why aren't we sending CC Brown, or Glen Earl on Blitzes?? Why aren't we sending our corners??
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It's pre-season. You don't see THAT many corner/safety blitzes in pre-season. In all honesty, I don't see C C Brown or Glenn Earl being all that fast, so I doubt we'll see too much of that this year.

I do hope that we see a big bodied CB like Bennett or Molden coming in and getting after the QB occasionally this season, but not during the pre-season that'll just get squashed in the regular season as teams will prepare for that sort of stuff.
 
HOU-TEX said:
What does that mean? Eli has started 55 games to Schaub's 13. Eli is much more experienced and yes, he is more talented than Schaub at this time.

Yes, they are more talented at this time.

If you're saying we have more talent than the Giants you're basically saying our coaching staff sucks, right?
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You don't get more talented with age & experience.


Yes.

b0ng said:
It's pre-season. You don't see THAT many corner/safety blitzes in pre-season. In all honesty, I don't see C C Brown or Glenn Earl being all that fast, so I doubt we'll see too much of that this year.
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Wasn't that a Corner that Taylor missed, who nailed Schaub?? I think it was Schaub.
 
I would rather have less "talented" players that can get the job done than being better on paper but not make the playoffs. You can call the Giants schedule weak but they still won. The beat the cowgirls when it matters and beat an undefeated team in the Super Bowl.
 
beerlover said:
OVER

can't see taking a step back after last seasons 8-8. even if its the same or one win more (9-7) :texflag:
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Unfortunately its VERY possibly we win less games than last year while taking a step forward overall as a football team. Our schedule is simply BRUTAL. We play the toughest 2 divisions in football most of the year and we are stilll a young and growing team. Only winning 7 games is very possible.... and I am definitely preparing myself for that.
 
you know...the more I think about it...it just seems we have too much talent to not win 8 games...that's what makes that line so weird...i would think it would be 8.5.....I guarantee you that the Sportsbooks have more people betting the Texans go over the 7.5....and they do not seem to be scared of that....oh well, hope they are wrong. I would like nothing more than to see us have a breakout year.....
 
Who knows, however, looking at our schedule, I think we are right now clearly better than every team on it with the exceptions of:

Indianapolis,
Jacksonville,
Minnesota,
Pittsburgh


Of course, that doesn't mean we will win all those other games or that we will be better than those teams by the time we play them, but it is encouraging.

So, I'll say OVER!
 
kcdoubleeagle said:
you know...the more I think about it...it just seems we have too much talent to not win 8 games...that's what makes that line so weird...i would think it would be 8.5.....I guarantee you that the Sportsbooks have more people betting the Texans go over the 7.5....and they do not seem to be scared of that....oh well, hope they are wrong. I would like nothing more than to see us have a breakout year.....
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If too many people are betting the over the line will move to 8, then 8.5 and so on. Apparently the sportsbooks are good with 7.5 because not enough people are betting the over to make it worthwhile to move the line.
 
kcdoubleeagle said:
I guarantee you that the Sportsbooks have more people betting the Texans go over the 7.5
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There are a whole lot of people that consider the Texans to be a horrible team. That is why it is set at under .500. Of course, as Texans fans, we believe that we have 10 win potential so 7.5 looks easily attainable
 
I believe we will go OVER, probably 9 wins have our first winning season, but miss the playoffs; unless we go 11 wins and win the Division.

The Texans looked pretty good vs Denver and N.O. and not so good against Dallas. Denver plays in arguably the weakest division in the AFC as does N.O. The Saints are being picked by many to have a bounce back year.

Dallas, believe it or not is a really good team and will be one of the top teams in the NFC again this year. The good news is we were able to move the ball down the field on their D. Shaub ended up with about the same yards as Romo and a TD.
 
#8 had the same amount of yards as Romo but stayed in the game longer. Dallas is one of the best teams in the NFC but we face some of the top teams in the AFC. If our D continues to allow teams to mop the floor with them it may not be a pretty season. I try to not put much stock in preseason, other than rating backups.
 
I think 7.5 might be a close over/under. The Texans are starting out the season with key injuries, and they have a few glaring weaknesses. It remains to be seen if their strengths can overcome those two items. As they say, that's why they play the games.
 
I've been saying all along we could be an improved team this year and still go 8-8. I'm hoping for 9 or 10 wins though.
 
kcdoubleeagle said:
....I guarantee you that the Sportsbooks have more people betting the Texans go over the 7.5....
Click to expand...
From what I've seen, you're correct. Caribsports has the Texans over 7.5 wins @-125. The Texans are under 7.5 wins @-105. It's cheaper to bet the under, which means the sportsbook is trying to attract betters to the under in order to balance the bets. Some of the other futures that fans are betting heavy:

Seahawks over 8.5 (-195)
Saints over 8.5 (-190)
Eagles over 8.5 (-170)
Panthers over 7.5 (-170)
Colts under 11 (-160)
Titans under 8 (-130)
 
KEYE SUX said:
There are a whole lot of people that consider the Texans to be a horrible team. That is why it is set at under .500. Of course, as Texans fans, we believe that we have 10 win potential so 7.5 looks easily attainable
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ya, My interaction with most fans who dont pay attention has been mostly me scratching my head at their explanation of why the Texans suck. Most NFL fans arnt that educated, Id say that the sportsbook is having a big laugh watching all these know nothings bet on the Texans going under....

Im basically saying that I understand why thats the line, I have rarely run into a fan that knew we went .500 last year, and in the toughest division...
 
WesmanTexanfan said:
Most NFL fans arnt that educated, Id say that the sportsbook is having a big laugh watching all these know nothings bet on the Texans going under....
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I'm bit of a philomath and I can see 7.5 being reasonable. It's not easy to win in this league and the Texans have some issues.
 
KEYE SUX said:
There are a whole lot of people that consider the Texans to be a horrible team. That is why it is set at under .500. Of course, as Texans fans, we believe that we have 10 win potential so 7.5 looks easily attainable
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Well there is rampant speculation this week about just how bad Derick Anderson's concussion is. Speculation is, it's worse than they are letting on. With Anderson we'd have to be very fortunate to catch enough breaks to beat the Brownies. Without Anderson...with the rookie Quinn, if we can find someone who'll get there, we've got a better than fifty fifty shot at beating them. The point being this thing hasn't even started yet and we don't know who'll be playing and who won't from week to week. We aren't as bad as the Cowboys game...and we aren't as good as the Saints game. The Saints were flat and we were hungrier. And we won't be facing a Jason David loose canon every week for a third down crutch. Believe anything believe that.

The bottom line for this team is how soon will the young guys take to get on line. I'm not talking about Molden here. I'm talking about the two new guys on the special teams replacing Charlie Anderson & Von Hutchins....the New Sam Backer....the new right guard & the new right corner.

Those guys will have to learn on the run and grow up fast to catch 3-2 or better the first five games. I think with the breaks and we don't loose the two book end offensive tackles the first five games they have a fair shot at 10-6. But that means we do something we haven't ever done before....beat division rivals on the road in back to back games. Means they have to be perfect in every way in those games and catch a couple of breaks. I do not think this is very likely....the Atlanta game last year still haunts me. But it is possible. If they are 2-0 by some miracle out of the gate, we'll see if they spit the bit once again in the third game. Doesn't make them a bad team , just means they are young. I think 7.5 on paper is just about right. I also think a lot of folks are under estimating the value of the rushing attacks we face the last eight games. To hit 10-6, IMHO, they have to be 6-2 or five and three after the bye week. Possible, not likely. I think they split the last eight with the two back to back division wins in their pockets, they'll make the playoffs. Means we've knocked off at least three of five rivals at least once for the final play off spot.

Conversely....they dog up those two early division road games...we're at 4-4, 3-5 or 2-6 after the bye week, we're not going to run six of eight games and sneak in. You can be as gung-ho as you want, that ain't happening.
 
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thunderkyss said:
You want to do it position by position??

QB
Eli vs Schaub

I think it's a wash...... many here would tell you Schaub hands down.

RB
Brandon Jacobs... Ahmad Bradshaw... Derrick Ward
Ahman Green... Ron Dayne... Samkon Gado... Darius Walker

again, I know you and most everyone on this board would trade everyone of our backs for one of theirs, But Ahmad & Derrick were unknowns when the season started, and Brandon Jacobs was a question mark. If you they were in Houston, I doubt they would have done much better than our guys did.

WR
Plaxico, Steve Smith, Santana Moss
Andre, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis

I think we have the edge, if we're not even

OL
Let's just say they gave up 28 sacks, we gave up 22. I know that's not the end all be all of talent, but that's what we've used for the last 6 years.

TE
Shockey vs Owen
I think it's even. yeah, Owen hasn't put up those probowl numbers just yet, but I think he's just as talented as Jeremy Shockey.

DL
Strahan...... and a bunch of other guys
Mario...... and a bunch of other guys.

Umenyiora is better, more talented than anything we've got, I won't deny that.

LB
Kiwanuka vs Ryans.... I think it's a wash
Pierce vs Greenwood.... wash
??? vs Orr.. whatever

CB
Ross vs Dunta... again, not me, but a lot of the fans here has Dunta as top 10.

Sam Madison vs Faggins..... I like Faggins. I know, I know... but I like Faggins

Safety
Sammy Knight vs CC Brown... I wouldn't trade CC Brown for Sammy Knight. & if I did, I'd want them to throw something else in.

Butler vs Demps... I don't even know who Butler is. But I know who they drafted in '08



Had we made the plays they made.. if we had the schedule, they had. Washington, Philly, Jets, ATL, SanFran, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philly, Buffalo, we would have had 10 wins...... and people would be talking about how talented we are.

But we didn't.
Click to expand...

You do know that Santana Moss is not a Giant?
 
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