2018 Offseason and Draft - Precombine Mock

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by gs27, Feb 19, 2018.

  1. ObsiWan

    ObsiWan Site Contributor

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2007
    Messages:
    24,326
    Likes Received:
    5,744
    Location:
    League City, Tx
    Question to the folks who want to cut Lamar Miller:

    Can your prospective RB replacements identify and pick up blitzers and catch out of the backfield?
    Miller was pretty decent at both.

    I just remember him sort of bailing Watson out a few times with timely catches that went for pretty good yards. And I've seen him pick up blitzers.

    I'm asking because I don't want to downgrade any aspect of that position.
     
  2. WolverineFan

    WolverineFan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    7,443
    Likes Received:
    3,988
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    These theoretical FA contracts aren't all that accurate. I get that it's an exercise and that may be what you think they are worth, but that's not how FA works. Everyone gets overbid. EJ Gaines played just below pro-bowl caliber for both the Rams and Bills yet you have him at $5M per year on this contract while Spotrac has his estimated market value at $9M per year (similar to the contracts KJax and David Amerson signed recently). The top 5 CB's on the market last year averaged $10M per year and a guy like Malcolm Butler being available this year is only going to increase the market on CB money.

    Vacarro and Fleming are among the highest rated players at their respective positions on the FA market. They are going to get overpaid (especially Fleming because he's an OT). The top 3 Safeties on the market last year averaged $7M per year so your Vacarro contract is in the ballpark but Eric Berry also rewrote the Safety market this past offseason so we may see some effect from that. The top 4 OT's on the market last year averaged $11M per year on their FA contracts so Fleming at $6M per year isn't close. Especially considering the RT market was blown wide open last year with the Ricky Wagner contract.

    As it is, Fleming is an average player anyway. Wouldn't throw money at him on the FA market because you will be overpaying for average. I would rather overpay for a top 3 OG in the league like Andrew Norwell. We have the cap space. Throw the cash at him and protect Watson.
     
    bah007, OptimisticTexan and JB like this.
  3. WolverineFan

    WolverineFan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    7,443
    Likes Received:
    3,988
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    This. Miller is not who we thought we were getting but he still brings more value to the position than anyone else that we have. Yes, he's being overpaid for what he's bringing to the run game, but with $50M+ in cap space this year I think we can get away with that for another year while Foreman keeps developing.
     
    JB likes this.
  4. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2007
    Messages:
    24,577
    Likes Received:
    5,382
    I dont have any faith in Foreman making it back. No other RB has made it back from that injury. Gaine needs to plan appropriately. Who are some late rd RB's that fit the mold of RB's drafted since BOB has been here?

    The one I keep thinking may be there in the 6th Rd is LSU's Williams, who BOB got a great look at the Sr. Bowl. Williams doesn't have the homerun speed that Guice has, but he's got a great burst and runs extremely hard. Maybe BOB starting Williams at the Sr Bowl means something.

    Who would you compare Williams too?
     
  5. infantrycak

    infantrycak Admin & Mod Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2004
    Messages:
    74,921
    Likes Received:
    15,316
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    Foreman is more likely to be done than keep developing.
     
  6. WolverineFan

    WolverineFan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    7,443
    Likes Received:
    3,988
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    Good point. Completely forgot about his injury to be honest. Makes this fan movement to cut Miller all the more arbitrary.
     
    JB and steelbtexan like this.
  7. WolverineFan

    WolverineFan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    7,443
    Likes Received:
    3,988
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    He's drafted Blue, Hilliard, and Foreman so it's pretty obvious he's looking at bigger backs (IMO the Ervin pick was all on Smith as he was focusing on adding speed to the offense). I also remember O'Brien saying something in the past about preferring backs with less tread on their tires coming out of college.

    I could definitely see Williams being on his list because he fits those metrics and can also catch. Honestly I would comp him to Alfred Blue. Similar body types with similar skill sets who got stuck playing behind better players. Legs are pretty fresh coming out of college.

    I think Royce Freeman fits the bill for exactly what he wants at RB but he also had over 1,000 touches at Oregon so he may be scratched off the list. Same with Penny (who I think is overrated personally). I think Jarvion Franklin (Western Michigan) also fits the bill for what he wants but he had a ton of touches as well. Kalen Ballage could be one although he runs somewhat soft for a big back and that had turned people off before the Senior Bowl where he got to show off his athleticism. He has a very desirable skill set though.

    Another guy to watch could be Jordan Wilkins from Ole Miss. Has a balanced game and not a lot of tread. Same with Lavon Coleman from Washington.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2018
    JB, steelbtexan and Lucky like this.
  8. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

    Joined:
    May 1, 2004
    Messages:
    19,525
    Likes Received:
    6,873
    If we're naming RBs, I think Oregon State's Ryan Nall would be a good fit with Miller. He's a no frills power runner that can run routes and block. Probably could help on special teams. Maybe even double as an H-back.
     
    ObsiWan and steelbtexan like this.
  9. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2007
    Messages:
    24,577
    Likes Received:
    5,382
    I will do comps and tell me what you think

    Williams- Spencer Ware

    Freeman- Alfred Morris with better hands.

    Balage- Poor mans Foster

    Penny- Thomas Jones

    Wilkins- Very poor mans Priest Holmes

    Franklin- Haven't seen (Who would be your comp?)

    Coleman- Terron Ward
     
  10. OptimisticTexan

    OptimisticTexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    2,864
    Likes Received:
    1,617
    Well, I'm going to go ahead and say...I really liked what I saw from Alfred Blue down the stretch. I think the game is finally slowing down for him. He's going to be a very reasonable signing. Blue fits O'Brien's mold of what he desires in a RB.

    If it's me, my RB investment in the draft would be, Josh Adams (Notre Dame / C: 481; Y: 3,198; TD: 20 / 6-2 @ 225 lbs). He has the size and speed to meet O'Brien's RB template, not to mention he has the low mileage coveted by O'Brien. He still delivered a very solid and outstanding performance for the 2017 season. I think another reason he could be a O'Brien RB, he has work ethic, is a leader on and off of the field, and he's a player who desires to be coached. ND RB Coach stated, Adams can run you over, he can run away from you, he can make you miss or he can run through you. You know, reminds me of Eddie George....so yeah, that's my target.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018


  11. WolverineFan

    WolverineFan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    7,443
    Likes Received:
    3,988
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    Nall has talent but if we're looking for a big body power runner who can catch and block then I'll take Jaylen Samuels all day every day. He's a total stud.
     
    steelbtexan likes this.
  12. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2007
    Messages:
    24,577
    Likes Received:
    5,382
    Samuels will go in the 3rd/4th rd. Looks like a Pats pick.

    Nall is 5-7th rd or UDFA.
     
  13. Insideop

    Insideop Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 26, 2006
    Messages:
    2,747
    Likes Received:
    723
    Location:
    In the "Control Room"
    I'm with you on Blue. I don't know why most on here and even on 610 radio seem to think he's done in Houston. I know he didn't get a lot of playing time last year until Foreman went down and Miller was hurt (out of gas?) near the end of the season. But, he did have some good games there at the end and shows he can still be a valuable asset as a backup RB, especially with Foreman's health in doubt. Also, he will be cheap to sign, knows the system, and plays Special Teams. I really think they resign him.

    As for picking up a RB in the Draft, I think if they do it will be in the later rounds unless they know Foreman is not coming back soon or maybe done with football. Then I wouldn't be surprised if they took a RB in the 3rd or 4th round and a few more as UDFA's. Adams is projected to go in the 3rd to 4th rounds. I guess we'll see if they go RB at that time and what it could mean for Foreman and Blue. It's going to be an interesting off season!
     
    OptimisticTexan and steelbtexan like this.
  14. infantrycak

    infantrycak Admin & Mod Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2004
    Messages:
    74,921
    Likes Received:
    15,316
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    Blue will be cheap because he's not good.
     
    badboy, WolverineFan and steelbtexan like this.
  15. OptimisticTexan

    OptimisticTexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    2,864
    Likes Received:
    1,617
    Have any of the Texans RB's been all that good since Blue arrived? I'd really like to see the team put a decent OL in front of these runners before I give my final thoughts. In regards to Miller, he's still miscast as a runner in this offense. O'Brien and the team should realize he's a 3rd down back who needs to shed 10 pounds during the off-season so he regains his quickness he lost while trying to be the teams top bettering ram.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2018
    justmy2cents likes this.
  16. Scooter

    Scooter Funky

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2004
    Messages:
    7,817
    Likes Received:
    2,777
    What kills me regarding Miller is that he's a Superbowl MVP waiting to happen on the Patriots. For more than a decade Belichick has used his athletic backs to work mismatches in every which way. Miller is a better mismatch than anyone Belichick has used over the years (he's killing linebackers with late rounders). Despite being OC for that one glorious year, O'Brien wasn't privy to the 'why' and 'how' of success. We have a nuclear weapon and use him as a hand grenade, ignoring the impulse and reasoning that made him a Texan in the first place.
     
    WolverineFan, JB, ObsiWan and 2 others like this.
  17. OptimisticTexan

    OptimisticTexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    2,864
    Likes Received:
    1,617
    You are 100% correct! Give Miller to the Patriots and he instantly becomes everything the Texans desired him to be....only they never had a proper plan in place to utilize his specific skill set.
     
  18. Insideop

    Insideop Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 26, 2006
    Messages:
    2,747
    Likes Received:
    723
    Location:
    In the "Control Room"
    Well then, I guess the 1st thing the Texans need to do this off season is get Nate Solder signed in FA! :D
     
    steelbtexan and OptimisticTexan like this.
  19. OptimisticTexan

    OptimisticTexan Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2017
    Messages:
    2,864
    Likes Received:
    1,617
    Damn Insideop, another nail struck squarely on the head.
     
    Insideop likes this.
  20. CloakNNNdagger

    CloakNNNdagger Site Contributor

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2004
    Messages:
    28,022
    Likes Received:
    12,135

Share This Page