2012 Football Outsiders QBR

Discussion in 'The National Football League' started by thunderkyss, Aug 31, 2013.

  1. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    So I found this article from Football Outsiders it gives us objective data to analyze 39 quarterbacks from the 2012 season. We all know stats aren't the end all be all of player comparison because none of them include the subjective aspects of the game; the human factor, or the "eyeball test."

    Still, the statistic show a clear difference between the #1 guy & #39. Generally I find the spread to be fairly accurate to our human perspective. Few would be surprised to see Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning & Aaron Rodgers at the top of the list. Most would expect to see Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, & John Skelton at the bottom.

    Where we generally argue is the placement of guys in the middle. Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, & Andrew Luck below Schaub..... gasp!!!

    Personally I like Football Outsiders approach to stats in that they try to normalize the numbers so we can more accurately compare #1 to #39. Of course Matthew Stafford is going to look great throwing to megatron.

    So my question to you, if you rank your QBs in tiers, how does this list compare to your tiers?

     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2013
  2. infantrycak

    infantrycak Mod. Staff Member

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    You have subjective and objective backwards.
     
  3. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    would you believe it was a typo?

    :embarrass:
     
  4. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Let's look at ESPN's Total QBR

    First you've got to understand Expected Points Added (EPA)
    According to EPA
     
  5. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Now a little more about QBR

    RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
    1 Peyton Manning, DEN 84.1
    2 Tom Brady, NE 77.1
    3 Colin Kaepernick, SF 76.8
    4 Matt Ryan, ATL 74.5
    5 Aaron Rodgers, GB 72.5
    6 Robert Griffin III, WSH 71.4
    7 Alex Smith, SF 70.1
    8 Russell Wilson, SEA 69.6
    9 Drew Brees, NO 67.9
    10 Eli Manning, NYG 67.4
    RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
    11 Andrew Luck, IND 65
    12 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 62.8
    13 Tony Romo, DAL 62.7
    14 Matt Schaub, HOU 62.6
    15 Matthew Stafford, DET 58.9
    16 Cam Newton, CAR 54.2
    17 Christian Ponder, MIN 53.8
    18 Josh Freeman, TB 53.1
    19 Ryan Tannehill, MIA 52.3
    20 Jay Cutler, CHI 51.9
    RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
    21 Sam Bradford, STL 51.6
    22 Andy Dalton, CIN 50.7
    23 Matt Hasselbeck, TEN 48.5
    24 Jake Locker, TEN 48.1
    25 Joe Flacco, BAL 46.8
    26 Michael Vick, PHI 46
    27 Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF 45.8
    28 Nick Foles, PHI 45.3
    29 Carson Palmer, OAK 44.7
    30 Blaine Gabbert, JAC 40.9
    RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
    31 Philip Rivers, SD 40.6
    32 Matt Cassel, KC 36.5
    33 Chad Henne, JAC 29.9
    34 Brady Quinn, KC 27.4
    35 Brandon Weeden, CLE 26.6
    36 Mark Sanchez, NYJ 23.4


    Again, the tops & bottoms are generally the same. Their exact placements are a bit off. We may draw our lines at different spots, but definite tiers can be identified.
     
  6. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Get rid of Reggie Wayne & it's comparable.

    I do not fear Andrew Luck any more than Gabbert... sorry. If our offense can do it's thing & put points on the board, Andrew Luck is of no concern. If our offense can't score more than 16 points, we may as well be playing Christian Ponder.
     
  7. Rey

    Rey Guest

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    Yeah, I couldn't care less about those numbers.

    I'm concerned about qb's that are capable of making things happen on any given number of plays.

    I don't think gabbert could do that in the past. We'll see for the future. I was worried about VY when we played him because he could make a play. No matter how bad or mediocre he is, I'm worried that at any point he could make a play or succession of plays that change momentum or put his team in a good position. I don't feel that way about Gabbert. I felt that way about ponder last year going into the game. I feel that way about Luck, kaepernick, manning, Ben rothlisberger and Eli...Brady...even Flacco

    If I was the fan of another team, and my guys were about to play the texans Schaub wouldn't worry me like that. Not that I think he sucks, but I wouldn't be worried about him all of a sudden making those great type of plays that change momentum and leave a lasting imprint in my brain. I don't think he has the ability to do that.

    So some of those guys with bad ratings per these numbers....I'd take them ahead of some of the guys with higher ratings depending on the offense I'm running and what the rest of my personnel looked like.
     

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