2011 AWTBEER Mock Draft

Discussion in 'Mock Draft Talk' started by awtysst, Apr 11, 2011.

  1. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    It's good to be back! After a 4.5 month hiatus from the boards, I present to you the triumphant return of the Draft Guru...awtysst! Please contain your excitement and joy!

    What you have here is a collaborative Mock Draft featuring one of the best draft prognosticators on the board: BeerLover and me(awtysst). Last year Beerlover and I combined on one of the best mock drafts I have ever put together. He reached out again this year and I quickly jumped at the opportunity. We have read each other's work for years and I have certainly learned a lot and grown from his insights. So, thank you BL, I had a great time doing this and I hope you did as well!

    Now, on with the show. Last year, if you recall, Beerlover and I put out a 1 round mock. This year, we upped the ante by doing a full 1 round mock as well as the Texans picks from 2-Mr. Irrelevant.Taking it to the next level, is what Beerlover and I are all about!

    Round 1

    1. Carolina: Blaine Gabbert-QB Missouri
    The league has slowly moved towards an offense focused passing league. These days without a good QB, your franchise is toast. Carolina takes the better QB prospect (Newton is the better athlete).

    2. Denver: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
    Denver's D was not great last year. They got pushed around by just about everybody. Dareus brings that tough strong anchor for the run game and provides penetration ability. He is a ideal as they transition back to the 4-3 under Fox.

    3. Buffalo: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
    Buffalo, like Carolina, has a ton of holes. The difference is they have Fitzpatrick who can start for a year while Newton learns the system. I suspect Gailey will use Newton as Denver used Tebow last year: in special packages and ease him into the NFL.

    4.Cincinnati: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
    While everyone talks about the Palmer situation, remember, they don't have any wide receivers to throw the ball to. JJ is bigger, faster, and stronger than AJ. Cincy goes for him.

    5. Arizona: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
    Wow. Arizona gets lucky. They could use DB help and they get the best DB in the entire draft and a player some think is the best prospect of the draft. Part of Peterson's fall is the premium placed on QBs in the NFL.

    6. Cleveland: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
    If the draft occurs like this, Cleveland makes their pick in about 2 seconds. They got their franchise QB in Colt McCoy last year. Now, he needs his franchise receiver. He gets a very good one in AJ.

    7. San Francisco: Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M
    This may go down as the steal of the entire draft. Here is the thing, Von Miller is a much better 3-4 OLB prospect than DE. He could have gone to Buffalo, but the QB premium trumps an OLB. Then he could have gone to Arizona, but Peterson, a better prospect is sitting there.

    8. Tennessee: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
    I hate to see this as a Texans fan, but Fairley is exactly what the Titans need. He is a strong, run stopper, and solid pass rusher. He makes the Titans Defense stronger.

    9. Dallas: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
    This is the smart pick. One of the reasons Romo went down was shoddy O line protection. We all know what shoddy O line protection can do to a QB. Smith is an excellent prospect and will fit in right away in Jerry World.

    10. Washington:Robert Quinn, OLB North Carolina
    A near perfect situation for Quinn and he should be praying this happens. In Washington he already has OLB Brian Orakpo there to help him. Orakpo will get lots of double teams which will only help Quinn.

    11. Texans: Cam Jordan, DE Cal
    The Texans D had a tremendous amount of holes on defense last year. In this scenario, they must take BPA and fortunately for them, Jordan is the man. He starred as a 3-4 DE at Cal for 3 years, played the run well, and was able to put pressure on the QB. He reminds me of a Shaun Ellis type of 3-4 DE. He has tremendous NFL bloodlines in that his father was a 6 time probowler at TE. Yeah, I said it, TE. There is his TE connection, which makes him gold in Kube' mind.

    12. Minnesota: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
    Minnesota is in desperate need of a CB and Prince would be a great fit for them. He could start from Day 1.

    13. Detroit: Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
    A big drop, but he has a couple of negatives: 1)injury concerns. He has been unable to get healthy to perform for teams. 2) 4-3 DE only. He cannot play 3-4 OLB, so that limits teams interested. Bowers would be a fantastic addition to a D line that already features Mr. Suh.

    14. St. Louis: Anthony Contonzo
    The theme of the day is if you don't have a QB, get one. If you have one, you better protect him. Bradford did great last year, but he won't last unless they bring in some more O line help for him.

    15. Miami: Aldon Smith, OLB Missouri
    Many people like the idea of having Mark Ingram go here. We don't. Ingram has been injured and the last thing you want to do is grab an injured RB this high in the draft. Instead, they address their need of trying to put pressure on the QB.

    16. Jacksonville: Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purude
    A natural athletic and fluid 4-3 DE. Jax has been trying to address the DE position for years. Now they finally make the right decision.

    17. New England: JJ Watt, DE/DT, Wisconsin, 6-5 290
    Relentless, 5 technique DE for Patriots 3-4 who finally fill the void left by Richard Seymore RDE. This is rmartin65 & badboys favorite 5 technique DE that only predicates he should be taken earlier, preferably by the Texans but you just know Bill Billchick will work this draft & get his people in line.

    18. San Diego: Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia, 6-3 270
    Edge rusher, downhill, single minded QB sack artist who projects nicely into replacing once feared Shawn Merriman for Chargers. Houston’s stock soared when Georgia switched to a 3-4 scheme. Playing OLB he was productive with 18.5 tackles for loss & 10 sacks.

    19. New York Giants: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin, 6-7 314
    Big ugly, nothing personal. Not the most gifted athlete but just plug him & he would instantly improve Eli Mannings protection. Gabe is very durable & you got love his mindset when questioned at the combine Gabe replied, “I’m physically stronger and have more career starts and better knowledge of the game than any other tackle out there. That’s why I’m the No. 1 tackle out there.” Ok, so we’re going with him as the newest Giant.

    20. Tampa Bay: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa, 6-3 281
    Name me the Buccaneers starting LDE. Times up it’s Adrian Clayborn. Tampa uses the 4-3 & while improved greatly last season 1st pick Gerald McCoy, DT needs help to shed double teams. Clayborn is a strong run defender plus he can penetrate the pocket & sack or force QB turnovers.

    21. Kansas City: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor 6-3 334
    Scott Pioli is a direct follower off the Bellichick tree, he needs a true 3-4 NG in the Vince Wilfork mold & since there is only one premier talent @ this position in this years draft he pulls the trigger early. Great fit next to Dorsey & Tyson Jackson. Those years of Texans squeaking by the Chiefs are over.

    22. Indianapolis: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado, 6-8 319
    Small hands for size, needs more anchor/sand in his pants but is very athletic. Peyton needs his LT sooner than later its gonna be a tough learning experience but this need can no longer be ignored, despite his boom/bust projection we expect to see Nate shaded constantly with either Clark or Santi.

    23. Philadelphia: Mike Pouncey, G, Florida, 6-5 303
    Plug in play. Strength in run blocking, added value as back-up Center. Brother of Steeler rookie sensation Pro-Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey. We feel he’ll replace Todd Herremans immediately but long term will probably shift over to Center like his brother.

    24. New Orleans: Stephen Paea, DT. Oregon State, 6-1 303
    Requires double team, impossible to control man to man. Disruptive, athletic & strong. Best used as UT in a 4-3 so fits scheme in New Orleans perfectly, next to Ellis the pocket will collapse & New Orleans will no longer be known as just a finesse team.

    25. Seattle: Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State, 6-5 294
    We love his frame & think he has plenty of room to fill out & be a disruptive DT in a 3-4. Very versatile athlete, maybe the steal of this mock draft to date, is coming off major injury (Tommy John Surgery) so Seattle gets a steal here this late.

    26. Baltimore: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado, 6-2 211
    Proto-typical NFL sized CB. Lots of character concerns but that’s where veteran leadership comes to the forefront like Rey Lewis & Ed Reed to keep the rookie straight. Not for an inexperienced team like the Texans. Great combine numbers, elite athlete, would not surprise us in the Raven system if he doesn’t turn out to be the best CB in this draft.

    27. Atlanta: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland, 6-1 204
    Roddy White had a breakout season for Atlanta putting himself into top 10 fantasy picks next season (assuming we have a season) but he needs help (like Andre Johnson, yeah we’re going to address that but more latter).

    28. New England: Brooks Reed, OLB Arizona. 6-3 263
    Bellichik passed on Clay Matthews, I doubt he passes on another terror to fill his 3-4 OLB need. Defense adds two starters day one. We’re also willing to allow a small window for Texans FO to move up to select Brooks, what a perfect fit for Wade Phillip’s new Texan 3-4. Reed’s change of direction ability, tenacity, short burst power suggest his production would be elite given the right system to pin his ears back along with his long gold locks & make life miserable for opposing QB’s.

    29. Chicago: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State, 6-5 321
    The Bears are so close in the new Jay Cutler/Lovie Smith era all they need is better protection so the pocket doesn’t collapse, hence the poor, desperate decision making by an endangered QB. We would hope Derek becomes more of a closer & finishes his man/play off in the Bear tradition, he has all the talent you look for otherwise in a LT.

    30. Jets: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA, 6-3 254
    Tough pick, there are trade-up options for Ryan to consider, but this Prince is a very fluid athlete, sideline to sideline that can pressure the QB in a 3-4 playing OLB. We feel this matches up with both need & value here at the end of the first round, that Akeem Ayers will be a starting Jet day one.

    31. Pittsburgh: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami, 5-10 191
    Ike Taylor is probably gone via free agency, whenever CBA is resolved. Brandon gives them the best shot at inserting a rookie replacement ready to start. Very competitive in Steeler tradition, good man to man coverage skills & accustomed to facing other teams bigger #1 WR’s.

    32. Green Bay: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple, 6-4 315
    Why not take Ingram here? Well you build from the trenches out & GB needs to address their DL as well. Wilkerson would be too good to pass up & is an ideal 5 tech DE to replace Cullen Jenkins likely to leave via free agency. Wilkerson as a rookie could actually upgrade the position keeping the Packers D strong & in the hunt to repeat in Capers attacking 3-4.

    Texans

    2. Davon House, CB, New Mexico State, 6-1 200
    Excellent value/slot to address secondary need with bigger, faster cover CB. This would give the Texans a pair of bookend corners to match-up with any opposing WR sets, allowing Quinn to move to Safety. Expect the Texans to also be players once CBA ratified, for an experienced CB like aforementioned Ike Taylor. This is critical to developing our young, talented corners.

    3. Chris Carter, OLB, Fresno State, 6-1 248
    Not sure we’ll have to wait this far, expect the Texans to trade up for Brooks in first or Acho in the 2nd, but if they stand pat to their draft board Carter could be @ the top of their OLB list early in the 3rd. Played DE @ Fresno State so there is that whole projection aspect to this pick, but he displays the athletic ability to move in space, explosion off the edge & instincts to develop into a hybrid OLB in Wade Phillips 3-4.

    4. Deunta Williams, FS, North Carolina, 6-2 205
    True Center fielder, exhibiting the range Texans have coveted along with terrific hands & playmaking skills to make the acrobatic INT. Since we do not have access to his medical files this is a pick on faith, that he can return to 100% in due time, once he does he will work his way into the rotation & we’ll all see Sunday if he is the answer long needed.

    5.Stephen Burton, WR, West Texas A&M
    A sleeper small school talent. He has decent size, great hands, and can run. A perfect compliment to AJ and is what JJ was supposed to be.

    6. Anthony Gray, NT, Southern Mississippi
    A prototypical NT project for Wade to develop. Phillips is the guy who will tailor his D to his player's strengths rather than trying to force fit players into his scheme. Give him time and we may have a very special player in Gray.

    7. Bruce Miller, OLB Southern Florida
    The "other" 3-4 OLB Miller prospect. This one is a high motor, high effort, pass rushing machine. 17 TFL and 12 sacks is pretty darn good. He is not a run stopper, but he has the ability to become a pass rush specialist. Putting pressure on the QB is the name of the game in the 3-4.

    Mr. Irrelevant: Greg Lloyd, ILB, Pittsburgh
    It's hard to call the son of an NFL legend Mr. Irrelevant, but in this case he is. He is a very solid ILB. He is not spectacular, but he works hard and has reasonable side to side speed. He would be a very valuable depth player at a position that might be thinner than we expect. I will make him Mr. Irrelevant here.
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2011
    Lucky, TexCanada, TimeKiller and 4 others like this.
  2. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

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    Really good job, I love it!

    I can't argue with the Cameron Jordan selection, I like it.

    Comments under Brooks Reed (who I really like for us too) mentions Wade Smith... not Phillips. lol

    Veteran CB like Ike Taylor + Jackson + House, with Quin going to FS? Looks like a solid secondary to me.

    I totally agree with the possibility of Sam Acho in the 2nd round if we don't get an OLB in the 1st. It's amazing how on the same page we are.

    I've been reading some that Chris Carter could be an incredible 3-4 INSIDE LB. This would be a great selection that Wade could find a spot for. OLB/ILB, good value in the 3rd if he's available.

    Bruce Miller is a guy I'm targeting late too. I think he's going to surprise some people and be one of those that just finds a way to stick around.
     
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  3. TexCanada

    TexCanada Hall of Fame

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    Great read, thanks. NE would be an even scarier team then they already are if the first round falls like this.
     
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  4. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    Since Wade Smith did an ok job as OG we figured he couuld be a a D coordinator, right?! Seriously though, thanks for the catch on "Wade Smith."

    I think Kubiak pretty knows his ass is on the line here. Phillips is here so if there is a screwup, Bob will fire kubes and hire Phillips. That means they have to be aggressive in FA and getting a CB like Ike is a strong possibility.

    I also think there are many solid passrushers in this draft. The beauty of drafting a guy like Jordan is he brings additional pass rush from his side, like a Shaun Ellis does.

    I see Bruce Miller as a high motor, high effort guy that loves football. I think you are right, he isn't a star, but he could be that guy that sticks around this league for a LONG time!

    Thanks for the feedback!
     
  5. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    The scary thing about New England is they are always in the right place at the right time. They take best player available and always walk away from the draft with a few really good players. In this draft we had NE staying put, but don't be surprised if they trade down or trade a pick for one next year.

    Thanks for the feedback!
     
  6. SAMURAITEXAN

    SAMURAITEXAN Subscribed Contributor

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    Nice Job! I would like for us to really look into OLB in the 1st or 2nd just like you mentioned. But, can't complain on DE in the first though. Is there any other prospect worth drafting OLB position besides Acho?
     
  7. Hottoddie

    Hottoddie Hall of Fame

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    I just haven't gotten on the Jordan bandwagon yet. I see where his experience in the 3-4 will enable him to make an immediate impact on the team, but I like JJ Watt's upside much more. I also feel that Amukamara would fill a more pressing need on the defense & we can't count on free agency netting us a starting CB. In order for us to have a chance at a quality free agent CB the Texan's front office is going to have to make a major philosophical change in how they allocate their finances. But hey, there's always a chance.

    I've gone back & forth on choosing House or Quinton Carter here. I really like Carters versatility to be able to play both FS/SS positions & his ability to slide over to the CB position during CB blitzes. If we're able to land a veteran CB in free agency or select Amukamara in the first, moving Quin to FS would allow us to put Carter at SS & would give us two safeties with great speed & ballhawking skills. Carter has the skills of a FS, but isn't afraid to bring the wood. Did ya'll consider Carter here?

    I really like this pick. He's great value here & gives us our 4th starting linebacker.

    I've liked this kid all along & have felt he'd be the steal of this draft due to him recovering from his injury. He would definitely nail down the FS position for us. However, I've been leaning more towards Chris Culliver lately due to his versatility at playing the CB/FS/KR role. Do you have any thoughts on him?

    Nice pick here. He's very intriguing.

    I don't really know much about these last 3 players & will trust your judgement.


    Very nice mock overall.
     
  8. Wolf6151

    Wolf6151 Hall of Fame

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    I like your Texans draft but I disagree that Jordan would be the pick if Amukamara is available. The Texans have always addressed their biggest need in the 1st round and I don't think they deviate from that this year. I like Jordan as an experienced 3-4 DE but our secondary is easily our biggest need and Jordan would sit behind Smith and Williams on the depth chart. Jordan would make sense only as insurance of the chance or losing Williams to FA next year. I also don't think Deunta Williams will be available in the 4th round. Injury or not he was a very good FS and I think he goes in the 3rd round. I like your #2, #3, and #6 picks.
     
  9. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    Good work guys & thanks for the effort you both put in. My comments: I've not watched Jordan & bow to your info but as I've expressed Texans need to have a starter @#11 that makes an impact. I just don't see either Jordan or Watts beating out Smith or Mario this season. Having said that, I also do not see anyone else other than Julio Jones slipping to 11. Like Wolf, I'm thinking Smithiak selects Amukamara and I hope I'm wrong in my evaluation of the Prince. We can not blow two first round selections in a row especially @ CB.
     
  10. Señor Stan

    Señor Stan El Guapo

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    I think the Texans biggest draft need is a 3-4 OLB.

    Their biggest overall need is an experienced NFL corner. You can't draft one of those.
     
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  11. rmartin65

    rmartin65 I'm Score

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    I like it guys, good work.

    Love Jordan. I have Watt, but as I have told BL, the two are interchangeable in my eyes. Your 2-4 picks are awesome as well.

    Now, I think you have Burton a little early. He is a project at this point, more of an athlete than a receiver. I actually think we have a very similar player in Dickerson, so I would probably go another direction here.

    I like Gray as well. Very solid player, wont ever be All Pro, but will be a 10 year starter at the position.

    I like going for another OLB, and I like getting a backup ILB. Way to finish strong.
     
  12. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    Stan, I agree but a OLB can be selected in 2nd or third and we have no starter capable CB if Quin does indeed go to FS. My fear is I do not see any player at #11 that will impact the game unless either Jones or Robert Quinn slide to us. We need to be talking to them Patriot dudes about a trade.
     
  13. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

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  14. Jackie Chiles

    Jackie Chiles Hall of Fame

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    Chris Carter is a guy that is really intriguing to me. Just watching some of his highlights and looking at his build and athletic numbers he looks like a James Harrison clone. 6 ft 1 250lbs runs in the 4.5s, good vertical jump and is strong. Really uses his leverage and quickness to his advantage.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMVtxfRt8ok

    Someone correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Wade coach him in the Shrine game? If he did and he liked what he saw I could see us using our 2nd on him.

    Someday some coach is going to be quoted as saying, "Chris Carter, all he does is sack QBs."
     
  15. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

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    Awtbeer "the magnificent duo" - There's a lot of prospects here that we both like a lot for the Texans. Trades are extremely hard to predict... but they're fun. What would yall think of this?

    San Diego trades up from #18 to #11 to insure that get their targeted player, Cameron Jordan. Houston receives the 18th overall and their 2nd round pick (#61 overall).

    1st (18) - OLB Brooks Reed, Arizona
    2nd (42) - CB Davon House, New Mexico St.
    2nd (61) - ILB/OLB Chris Carter, Fresno St.
    3rd - DL prospect like Jarvis Jenkins or maybe a Safety.

    This frees up the 3rd rounder to insure we get Carter (late 2nd).
    You're correct, Wade did coach him at the East/West Shrine Game. Coaches tend to really go for players "they know" when they coach them at these post-season events like the Senior Bowl and Shrine Game.
     
  16. Señor Stan

    Señor Stan El Guapo

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    I agree the Texans need an impact player*. I just know I can't stomach going into another season starting a rookie CB.

    * insert obligatory "the only impact our 1st round pick from last year made was with the ground" joke here.
     
  17. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    my bad on the wade phillips (smith) thing, trying to beat awt deadline & didn't proof read. Too much emphasis always placed on a teams first rounder, guys & gals there are 7 other players to consider. what has historically killed the Texans is trading away 2nd rounders, these guys are the bricks & mortar of a teams foundation, while the first round guy needs to be a playmaker period. He should be elite @ his position, command double teams & show the ability to put his teammates on his back & carry them to the next level. Cameron Jordan paired with Mario Williams can do that. It will free up OLB's to hit holes quicker & limit secondary exposure in coverage. Cannot reach again for need & bypass another defensive positional player who is higher rated & fits the new scheme perfectly, in fact better than what's currently on the roster.

    there are gonna be some good CB's available early in the second, which one is really hard to say, but he needs to come with a package of size & speed, Davon fits that bill.

    Chris Carter is intriguing I like Jackie Chiles comp in Harrison. You can still meet need @ OLB in the third with someone like WADE PHILLIPS who understands the skill set needed, in fact I think that's a done deal, then putting a little cream on the top later in the draft with a speed guy to develop.

    Deunta Williams is a special player when healthy, I don't care if it takes another year for him to rehab 100% the wait will be worth it, just hope other teams lack as much patience.

    thanks for all your feedback :fingergun:
     
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  18. Ole Miss Texan

    Ole Miss Texan Hall of Fame

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    :clap::goodpost::bravo:

    Your first paragraph needs to be copied and then pasted all across this message board... in every thread. I love it. Add in that Wade is a really brilliant defensive-minded coach and I'm really really looking forward to our draft.

    Unfortunately I can never Rep you. Maybe you should slow down on the good posts ;)
     
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  19. drs23

    drs23 Veteran

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    Just off the phone with Bob. Rick Smith is fired. You guys are hired. Need to be @ Reliant Wednesday morn. Rick needs a day to clean out your new office. :D
     
  20. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    This mock is very realistic. We can only hope Rick and Gary do as well.

    I will be coming out with my prospects list on Dale and Barrtts blog this week.

    Carter has moved up to a late 2nd r grade. But I could see Rick taking him if he fall to the 3rd. He would be a steal at that point.

    Love the House pick, he has potential/measuables to be the best CB in this draft. He can turn and run with WR's better than any CB in this draft. IMHO House also showed great speed at his pro day 4.32/4.35 40's.
     

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