12%, err 2%

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Double Barrel, Sep 16, 2018.

  1. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss MVP

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    Nothing like a game against the Texans to cure whatever ails you.

    If you want to see a completely healthy Clowney, or Quessenberry, trade them to a Division rival.
     
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  2. Bulls on Parade

    Bulls on Parade 2017 Astros: Earn It!

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    If we lose to the Colts tomorrow on the road, and then top that off by losing to the Dallas Cowboys on primetime TV next Sunday Night at home. That would be embarrassing to be 0-5. But on the other hand, we'll definitely be in the driver's seat for the #1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

    My football buddies on Facebook are giving me a very hard time. I have a Houston Texans cover photo on my page. Saying I'm a proud Texans fan. LOL, I'm going to have to take that off soon. I feel so ashamed.
     
  3. JB

    JB Old Curmudgeon

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    Update to a Astro's cover
     
  4. HouTx11

    HouTx11 All Pro

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    I never said that the Cowboys aren't beatable. But like you said, it's the Texans we are talking about, right?
     
  5. HouTx11

    HouTx11 All Pro

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    I'll believe that the Texans can beat the Cowboys in prime time when I see it again. The first game in 2002 was special. Everyone thought that the Texans would whip the Cowboys in 2010 when the Texans were 2-0 and had clobbered the Colts during Arian Foster's coming out party and they beat the Redskins on the road when AJ made that awesome catch in the end zone. They laid a freaking egg at home against the Cowboys the following week.

    I'll believe the Texans can beat the Cowboys when I see it happen. Gotta beat the Colts first though.
     
  6. HouTx11

    HouTx11 All Pro

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    The cover photo on my FB page is the Texans 2018 regular season schedule. It gets old having to have to edit that cover photo and put the bold red L after every game that they play. Hoping to finally use green W's
     
  7. TD

    TD Super Bowl Mascot

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    If anyone knows the odds now, it would be interesting to see. It was 47% last week.
     
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  8. Texanmike02

    Texanmike02 Site Contributor

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    Happy days are here again...
     
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  9. ATXtexanfan

    ATXtexanfan Site Contributor

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    Making the playoffs one thing

    Winning in the playoffs another

    Whats the goal here

    Division crowns and one and outs in the playoffs gonna keep OB employed for a long time
     
  10. Texanmike02

    Texanmike02 Site Contributor

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    FWIW the way they calculate those odds is dumb. It should be simply the number of scenarios that have the Texans winning over the number of total possible outcomes. I don't know how many teams have wound up 0-3 but unless I'm just being careless there are 2^208 possible outcomes after everyone has played 3 games (for the team to be 0-3). Of all of those possibilities there are a certain amount that result in the Texans making the playoffs. Sure you can weigh team strength to try and get something slightly more precise or something but just looking at how teams have done in the past is way too small a sample size. It is like trying to determine the chances you have of winning the lottery because you picked the number 10 by looking back to see how well people who have picked 10 in the past have done.
     
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  11. Speedy

    Speedy Yeller Dweller

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    The way they calculate it is counting all the teams that have started 0-3. Then of those teams, counting how many made the playoffs. Pretty easy to figure. No need to go all Dr. Strange. Doesn't matter the thousand variables and scenarios. X number of teams have started 0-3, Y number of those teams made the playoffs.
     
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  12. Texanmike02

    Texanmike02 Site Contributor

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    That's not an accurate probability though, which is my point.
     
  13. Speedy

    Speedy Yeller Dweller

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    Yes, the probability of the 0-3 Texans making the playoffs is whatever it is. But that's not what the 12%, 2%, whatever, is about. Those numbers are about the number of 0-3 teams vs. the number of them to play Janaury ball.

    I actually think the probability of the Texans making the playoffs is pretty good. Not a team on their schedule the rest of the way they can't beat. But if they do make it, whatever that probability is, will just add to the X number of 0-3 teams making the Y number of playoffs.
     
  14. Texanmike02

    Texanmike02 Site Contributor

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    I know, I just get annoyed when the announcer says probability.
     
  15. TD

    TD Super Bowl Mascot

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    We're now better than even money at 51%

    Link
     
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  16. infantrycak

    infantrycak Admin & Mod Staff Member

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    It's a report of historical results expressed as a percentage. That's it, take it for what it's worth.
     
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  17. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss MVP

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    I'd respect McNair a lot more for firing O'Brien after another play off embarrassment than for barely missing the play offs, or having the worst record in the league. It would show the bar has been raised.

    Firing a guy because his team sucks... you're left with a team that sucks. Firing a guy because he underachieved as a headcaoch, then at least you've got a good team (or a delusional owner)
     
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  18. TD

    TD Super Bowl Mascot

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    Two words: Bum Phillips
     
  19. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Good Will Hunting appears on the TT MB.

    Thx
     
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  20. NastyNate

    NastyNate I go kerplunk

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    Leave it to you to always have a horrifically dumb response
     

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