Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by TexanTerror!, Aug 1, 2004.
Texans 12-4 this season?...What do you think?
I think that is a nice sentiment, but highly unlikely. 8-8 is/has been pretty much the consensus on the MB for a while. Varies a game on either side, but pretty much 8-8. Given some breaks, 10-6 might be possible with an OUTSIDE chance at a wildcard.
I would be extremely happy with 8-8.
Only 6 teams in the entire NFL were 12-4 or better last year and there are 8 divisions. 3 divisions didn't even have ONE team with a 12-4 record or better. We were last in defense and near last in Offense and only have to jump 25 or so teams in roster quality to do this. The league is way too tough, and way too talented. It isn't going to happen.
Well, we went 5-11 last year. We lost 4 winnable game in the 4th qtr. (Ten, Ind, NYJ, NE) So we easily could have been 9-7. All teams lose some 4th qtr games, so even if we won half of those games we would have been 7-9. For this year My prediction is 9-7.
In the past 5 years, 6 teams with 6 wins or less the previous season have made leaps of 6 or more wins. They are:
2001 Patriots - 11-5 from 5-11 (Super Bowl Champs)
2001 Bears - 13-3 from 5-11
2001 49ers - 12-4 from 6-10
2000 Eagles - 11-5 from 5-11
1999 Rams - 13-3 from 4-12 (Super Bowl Champs)
1999 Colts - 13-3 from 3-13
So it's fairly likely that one of the 13 teams in the NFL that finished with 6 wins or less will make a big jump and emerge as a contender. That gives the Texans about 13/1 odds of being that team. Vegas likes the Texans even more, giving them a 10/1 shot at winning the AFC South. So while it's not impossible for the Texans to finish at 12-4 (not with the type of talent they have at the skill positions), I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
Here's my wishful prediction. We go 10-4, with the Minnesota & Denver games being a pick'em. So, we could be anywhere from 10-6 to 12-4. We will make the playoffs as a wild card team.
Sept. 12 San Diego Chargers (W) (1-0)
Sept. 19 @Detroit Lions (W) (2-0)
Sept. 26 @Kansas City Chiefs (L) (2-1)
Oct. 3 Oakland Raiders (W) (3-1)
Oct. 10 Minnesota Vikings (pick'em) (?)
Oct. 17 @Tennessee Titans (L) (3-2)
Oct. 24 BYE WEEK
Oct. 31 Jacksonville Jaguars (W) (4-2)
Nov. 7 @Denver Broncos (pick'em) (?)
Nov. 14 @Indianapolis Colts (L) (4-3)
Nov. 21 Green Bay Packers (W) (5-3)
Nov. 28 Tennessee Titans (W) (6-3)
Dec. 5 @New York Jets (L) (6-4))
Dec. 12 Indianapolis Colts (W) (7-4)
Dec. 19 @Chicago Bears (W) (8-4)
Dec. 26 @Jacksonville Jaguars (W) (9-4)
Jan. 2 Cleveland Browns (W) (10-4)
I'd just be happy to win the first 2 games, and get that consecutive win streak down as soon as possible.
Its great that we start against the chargers and Rivers is holding out. IF he is a long hold out we might have to face flutie, or a less up to speed rivers. We do have a great chance to start off 2-0.
I say they'll finish at 9-7 while losing some heartbreakers in the 4th quarter and just missing the playoffs.
Did you bother to look at how we won our 5 games? They could all just as easily been losses. The Texans were what they were last year -- a 5-11 team.
Our chances of going 4-12 this year are greater than going 12-4.
Our chances of going 6-10 this year are greater than going 10-6.
At least if I was a bettin' man...
I predict 7-9 or 8-8 and a whole lot of microwavers calling for heads because we're not in the playoffs or something stupid like that...
I know everyone is counting the Detroit game as a win, but I see it as a tough game and a coin toss at best. Thier weakness is mostly the defense, on offense they could be very strong and they have proven to be particularly tough at home. I hope we don't look past them and get clobberd.
I agree, that Lions game might be closer than expected. That would be a big blow to our confidence.
I'd say the only way they have that record is if nobody has any injuries, not even a hangnail...
Seriously their division is so tough. To be competitive, win some close games, and improve their record should be their expectations.
Although I do understand the playoff talk.
This is what I love about the NFL more than any other sporting league, teams turn around every year, now for the most part you have one constant lose, Arizona, but the NFL flip flops every year, who would have thought at the beginning of the season that CAROLINA would end up in the SuperBowl and Tampa Bay, nor the Fins making the playoffs. No one,but thats the greatness of this game, you can never tell, you can only make good guesses.
Saw in the paper that the over/under at one off-shore gaming web site was at 6.5 for the Texans. I'd say jump all over that. I see them going (with no major injuries) 7-9 or 8-8.
While they are still the leagues worst road team (didn't they just break the Oilers early 80's record?), all 5 of Detroit's wins last year came at home. They had late season wins against Green Bay and the Rams so they won't be a pushover, especially with the additions of Roy Williams and Kevin Jones on offense.
12-4? That is nuts. Perhaps in a year or two but not this year. Not with about 8 guys starting new positions for us.
More likely to win than lose
Sept. 12 San Diego Chargers (1-0)
Jan. 2 Cleveland Browns (10-4)
Sept. 19 @Detroit Lions
Oct. 3 Oakland Raiders
Oct. 10 Minnesota Vikings
Oct. 31 Jacksonville Jaguars
Nov. 21 Green Bay Packers
Nov. 28 Tennessee Titans
Dec. 5 @New York Jets
Dec. 12 Indianapolis Colts
Dec. 19 @Chicago Bears
Dec. 26 @Jacksonville Jaguars
More likely to lose than win
Sept. 26 @Kansas City Chiefs
Oct. 17 @Tennessee Titans
Nov. 7 @Denver Broncos
Nov. 14 @Indianapolis Colts
Okay so lets say that we are 2-4 in the 6 games I have someone favored. That leaves 10 games that are up for grabs. If we go 5-5 in those games then we are 7-9.
I really don't like our road games. I think we will win 5-6 games at home but only about 2 or 3 on the road.
I seriously doubt that the Texans will be 12-4 this year. They are still in the development phase. In a few more years they will DEFINITELY be in the playoffs. Right now 8-8 seems like a generous prediction. A more realistic prediction would be 7-9, which isn't bad for a team that is still in its infancy.
As much as weve gotten better, other teams have too. Im guessing 7-9. Although, it does all kinda depend on David Carr, if he turns into the mature QB weve been hoping for, he will make everyone around him better, then I could see a possible playoff shot at the end of the season.
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